skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
The whole business of superforecasting is nice but doesn't seem to be the revolution some have promoted it as. The questions are kinda boring and the predictions seem very middle-of-the-road conventional wisdom, what you'd expect after a few well-chosen Google searches for background information.

For example, their GDP growth prediction is centered around "the recent average, maybe a little less", which makes sense given headwinds from inflation and central bank policy. "Will Putin use nukes" is answered "very unlikely, but maybe?" Etc.

If nothing else, though, it has illuminated for me that asking interesting questions about the future is not easy. Could we do better than a bunch of questions that can be answered with some variation of "past trends will probably continue"?

What could surprise us next year?
I don't understand the table in this article which refers to replacement words for e.g. "penis" or "breast". My first instinct is to think that it must obviously be some sort of parody.

I am male. I have a penis and no breasts. If I were to transition into being a woman, I assume that would involve me having breasts and a vagina (in the final state).

At some point in the process I imagine that I would have some set of physical attributes that don't correspond neatly into being either e.g. a "penis" or a "vagina", unless it's a one and done operation. At that point using either term would be inaccurate, but the terms themselves would not be inaccurate.

At no point in that process would any of the words "penis", "vagina", "chest", "breast" etc cause me offence. They quite obviously are good descriptors, both for myself (past, present and future) and for others.

What am I missing? Why do the terms need to be replaced, what is gained by doing so?
Not quite sure what most of what you said means, which is probably my own fault. But it does sound flowery, vaguely profound and poetic in a graduate studies essay kind of way.

Meanwhile, if you're interested in how this particular predictions market actually functions (spoiler: neither smoke, nor mirrors, nor ectoplasm make an appearance, and thanks for making me look up that last one): [0] [1].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project

[1] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/23995360-superforecastin...
Digging 10 miles underground could yield enough geothermal energy to power Earth
I'm genuinely surprised that a question about a particular failed request could be interpreted as a request to start logging stack traces for all requests. One reason for the surprise is I also believe it would be unreasonable to log the stack trace for every request.

I always try to give people the benefit of the doubt, if my interpretation of something seems unreasonable I like to make sure there's not a more generous interpretation, and give the benefit of the doubt when possible.

Again it's about a pattern over time, not just one instance. I realize I'm consistently not being given the benefit of doubt so I work on my communication. It continues and I start to wonder if it's intentional. To answer your question in the other thread, it seems similar for some but not others.

I think some people form an initial impression of others and that impacts the communication going forward, probably not always intentional. I think also some people try to diminish others through public communication. I don't know if that is what I was experiencing but it could be the case, something to be aware of.
Back in the early days of mobile games (Zynga et al) I worked at one of those shops helping them build a better Skinner Box.
Wouldn't your life be much simplier if you'd represented time as integer milliseconds? I totally get it being too late now, but I think that's an argument for making floats a little bit unpleasant to start working with.
Good to hear. It seems to me that more or less all static content should be exampt because it can be cached so serving it doesn't cost the origin anything.

Of course there are ways to bypass the cache with bogus URL parameters that make this difficult and some customers that are concerned with scraping even if that content is "static".
I'm fairly sure this isn't really safe or really reliable.

To my knowledge, IPFS isn't really private, in that both the nodes hosting content can be easily known, and the users requesting content can be monitored. This is bad news for something law enforcement has already taken a serious interest in.

IPFS also requires "pinning", which means that unless other people decide to dedicate a few TB to this out of their own initiative, what we have currently is a single machine providing data through an obscure mechanism. If this machine is taken down, the content goes with it.

The amount of people that have 31 TB worth of spare storage, care about this particular issue, and are willing to get into legal trouble for it (or at least anger their ISP/host) is probably not terribly large. The work could be split up, but then there needs to be some sort of coordination to somehow divide up hosting the archive among a group of volunteers.
Depends how you define communism.

Marx saw communism as an end state where it is "from each according to his abilities to each according to his needs". He imagines that technological development is going to lead to a post-scarcity economy where the intense conflicts we feel everyday are not going to be so intense and people can flower.

When Lenin overthrew the Czar he found himself in an immediate state of war with other elements of society and saw the need to establish a "Dictatorship of the Proletariat" which could suppress any elements of society that would want to restore the old order. The mission of that dictatorship was to be "socialist construction" which would end in the state of communism promised by Marx.

To be fair, in the time period from 1917 to 1960 or so the Soviet Union grew very quickly. They cracked a lot of heads (particularly repressed poor and rich peasants to get capital to build up their industrial base) but they went from a backwards agrarian country to having the capacity to resist Germany in WWII with the help of the allies and very rapidly developed nuclear weapons, space travel and other advanced technology.

Non-aligned countries like India were very impressed by the rapid development of the Soviet Union and hoped they could learn something from it in order to develop themselves since in the "imperialist phase" the world system seemed to promote development in countries like the UK at the expense of the rest of the world.

The point of the dictatorship of the proletariat is that competition in the society is suppressed and if you look at the Communist Party in a country like the USSR or the New China it is an organization where 2% or so of the population gets special privileges so that they can control the rest of society. They are supposed to be disciplined by the party and lose their privileges if they don't act in the interests of the party.

This really great book describes the conflicts that arise

https://www.amazon.com/Political-Economy-Dictatorship-Wintro...

Basically the manager of a business under communism has the motivation to use their personal relationships and knowledge to feather their own nest. In the long term this erodes the power of the party and the effectiveness of the economy. Purges are one mechanism that puts fear into managers and keeps them "on track".

In a competitive economy you have the same hazard but in a competitive economy a manager who steals too much from a business will be out-competed and not have a business to steal from anymore.

It's very easy to talk about communism, but it's not so hard to practice. The New China is an interesting case study. Despite recent backsliding on the part of Xi Jinping, the rulers of China have thought hard about the experience of the USSR, other communist states, and their own country to develop a system that is competitive on the world stage.
> Once measured, more weight is put onto those who make better opinions.

So basically "boosting" or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiplicative_weight_update_m...?
Can I boot this from uefi? The qemu instructions don't mention ovmf.
I hope we reach an "I'm Spartacus!" situation here, were none of us can be realistically accused of anything.
No, you see, you have to consider an all solar microgrid using ancient poly panels but at the cost of space rated quad junction cells in Oulu using outdoor non-insulated batteries vs. the output of one particular nuclear reactor in the US but pretend it cost as much as one with 50% uptime in France.

Otherwise you're being mean and unfair.
The bottom line is that you don't have to have sex with anyone if you don't want to have sex with them. Literally the worst thing that can happen here is that your date gets naked and and you realize that you're not into them. That can happen even if they have the genital phenotype you expected. I'm willing to bet that for 99% of people, most instances of this kind of disappointment occur with people who wield the expected and preferred kind of equipment.

I agree that the general prudishness of dating and dating apps (especially for straight dating) makes this all more difficult than it needs to be. But as far as trans people are concerned, all I really see here is a lot of unnecessary worrying about improbable hypotheticals that aren't even that bad if they actually happen.

Very few trans people are likely to do a 'surprise reveal' because they know all too well that this can have disastrously violent consequences in a heavily transphobic society.
For me the difference is that the parental relationship is a wonderful thing. Whereas gender norms (which as far as I can see is all you are left with once you remove biology from gender) are pretty problematic and harmful in their own right.
Hermaphrodites aren't suffering from a disorder. They're just born different than most. If you took the time to get to know some you'll see they are just as deserving of consideration as you.
Sure but often there isn't an obvious financial market to check. Prediction markets still update faster and more accurately than say the news or pundits.

Hopefully they stop being hindered and become more popular so liquidity increases though. It'd be much more useful for everyone if a portion of sports and other gambling spending can be redirected towards them.
I have now very old copies of both The Way and Forge of God series on my bookshelves still from decades ago now, very interesting series that really underlined to me the stories scifi could tell. Though I didn't keep up with his more recent works I'm sorry to hear this news, but he has left quite a legacy. Cheers to a life well lived and many minds inspired. And based on the link I'm glad too he to some extent gets to choose the manner of his departure too. Having had to go through something like this recently with a relative having good advanced directives and the like is something all of us should put some thought towards.
Note that Helen is written in C++14. Currently there isn't a C++ front-end for QBE, let alone one supporting a recent standard. Writing one is not an easy task and one of essentially different domain.
The problem isn't moderation. It's monopoly.

If there were 5 Twitters all competing against one another, they would have to have customer service since you could move to another company. The companies would actually allocate the necessary resources and that would dampen the worst excesses.

Until somebody (US, EU, etc.) gets serious and starts busting up these companies that rely on "network effect", this will all continue.
It's funny how these practices used to be (and in some places lucily still are) considered sexist and racist.
Hah. Virtual : - )
There are two big reasons for content moderation: to grow (or at least maintain) the userbase, and to protect the investors who own the platform.

Your idea would work wonderfully for the first point, assuming you had enough censors devoting enough time to the social networks you care about. If this scheme was adopted, people would be able to craft the perfect echo chamber, seeing only what they want to see, being exposed only to the ideas they want to think about. It would be the current algorithms on steroids.

But it would totally fail for the second point.

When $social_media_empire deplatforms someone calling for violence against the Jews, it's not (entirely) out of altruism, it's because their investors don't want to see headlines declaring $social_media_empire as the home of violent, holocaust-denying sociopaths.

It's not enough to hide $antisocial_behvior from people that don't want to encounter it, it's important to the platform that the platform not be seen as a home for that type of content. So, at some point, it becomes necessary to hide content even from the people who want to see it.
My dad definitely got better care because both my brother and were assertive in our advocacy, but my sister’s aggressive, undirected badgering didn’t help at all.
They are experienced, we were equals, maybe I'm just under him, maybe that was what we was trying to assert.

Again this was an observed pattern, not just one time.
There is a field of study called Mechatronics that combined Mechanics and Electronics though that is not the only path

For more hobbyist stuff, join the Lego FIRST competitions though note that the Mindstorms product line has been recently discontinued though Educators may still be able to obtain the Spike set.
Look into open source ROS operating system

E.g. control engineers can also get into robotics and it's better not to havea more broad degree in my humble opinion
Of “Darwin’s Radio,” and others. RIP.
Maybe you can expand on that? And please keep in mind the HN comment guidelines (https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html)

This recent study (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7333631/) seems to at least partially reproduce the and corroborate the original results?
… Really? I mean, see the cave diver incident.
In the JS world it's common to have hot-reloading development servers, whereas the production environment does not do that. And with the rise of TS, transpilation and bundling are also a thing on the backend, not just for shipping web assets. Once the bundle is done, all your production server needs is `index.js` and `node`, not `tsc`, `webpack` or whatever else you're using.
"I know that Cloudflare is legally required by the US government to abide by the DMCA, but this supports my theory they are censoring the web more and more on purpose!"

?????
It's done in JavaScript because there is not integer type. (Ok, ok, nowadays there is bigint, but historically.) So you do all int like calculations with number (which is IEEE double), but be sure to only do arithmetic where the result is still an integer. That's why you end up using a double as a numeric key. And I think a double can basically hold a 53 bit integer exactly.
My first job was for a sketchy knock off autoparts company that was a glorified drop shipper. I built a dozen websites and a database of a few million rows. I was proud of it at the time.

Then I started reading customer support emails, took a few phone calls from disgruntled customers, and it turns out the company was just cycling cash. Would charge 100 orders and float the cash as it trickled out refunds.

I ended up leaving, and the company sold for a couple million a year later. I was left with a bad taste for e-commerce that has only recently went away.
https://www.forth.com/starting-forth/ - The submission appears to be a PDF of this site. The page at forth.com includes a PDF link for the original edition if you're interested.
> This may be inevitable, and it has mostly happened with music, journalism, etc.,

What on earth are you talking about? Some of the best artworks - in all categories mentioned, and beyond - come with a flippancy towards marketability, aka the avant-garde. The detachment of capital from expression will only prompt more earnest expression.
There was very little code shared on the backend. Ingress was appengine talking to custom clients via JSON, PGO was GCE/GKE talking to Unity clients via protobufs. Almost everything on the backend was written specifically for PGO because the Ingress codebase just couldn't scale, at least not cost-efficiently, to the number of users.

Also, Ingress is all about controlling areas of the map, while PGO was mostly based on points of interest, so the architecture needed to be quite different. I'll go into more detail when I post the writeup.
this, devbox, and others seem to be alternatives to `nix-env shell` or the flake-based `nix develop`. spurred i think by a desire for better UX. these are excellent for any project off-the-ground enough that you’ve run `git init` or created a repo.

the adjacent area i’m struggling with is the “i want to write a tiny program to verify some conjecture, and i’ll probably throw it away an hour from now”. think codegolf competitions, if you can’t relate.

the environments i create for these follow similar patterns. it’s either python with numpy, pandas and plotly, or it’s Rust with clap and serde, say. i’d love a tool where i can just `cd /tmp/my-hourlong-project` and then `devenv python` to get a python shell that’ll have everything i often use (and probably more).

hearing from people who use these tools, nobody has told me that any of these can do this — except that since they crawl up the fs tree looking for their env definition maybe i could just stash some definitions at the fs root and get globally-invokable environments that way. seems hacky though: i’d hope for a method that’s more officially supported.
It could become very useful honeypot for the police or some government agency tracking crime.

Those people found another way to get paid.

Although I couldn't ever blame you for shutting it down. I'd probably do the same and try to forget about it for many years.
Ask HN: What is a project you failed pretty badly
I'll chime in with my random bit of knowledge about a similar topic. Chrome has a bug where if you dynamically create an iframe (document.write(), .createElement(), .innerHTML, etc.), the parent page's Service Worker isn't inherited. It just fails. However, if you use a blank page loaded via the src attribute coming from the same domain, it works as expected. Service workers are really nothing more than client-side network proxies, so once you've loaded that blank page, you can do whatever you want to it (add styles, images, scripts, what have you), then use the service worker to control its access to the network. I use this in an editor app to seamlessly load local assets by intercepting the iframe's network requests. I'm not going for strict security as there's no server-side data involved, so I'm not sure how secure this approach would be for user generated content, I just wanted to toss it out there for those interested. It might save you some time at some point.

(I think it would be wonderful if the Chrome guys fixed this 2+ year old bug so the rest of us don't have to spend a week or so trying to figure out WTF is going on before realizing the obvious-in-retrospect workaround. Just saying.)

https://bugs.chromium.org/p/chromium/issues/detail?id=880768...
Of course the line isn't the same for everyone. Some people (such as presidents) are a lot more influential and consequential than others. Nobody cares what Joe Random thinks about something and if he crosses a line nobody cares if he's silenced.

Trump isn't the only one who had a different line, though his was probably looser than anyone else got. Any celebrity or public figure is going to have more leeway in what he or she is allowed to say.
Yup, especially since you also need to a buy a "sample pack" from pantone if you're actually doing anything serious with those colors (eg, printing, manufacturing, etc.), and those are not cheap.

Linus (Tech Tips) made a nice video a few days ago about that.
Keep in mind that FF7 originally had a PC version around launch (that's the version I first played) so it's quite plausible that all versions could have this code if it dates to the original. Don't think it would have made sense to have it on the PS1, though.
How do they avoid attracting people who would see it as gambling for fun?

A lot of people are attracted to gambling - possibly everyone, to some degree, and for a wide enough description of "gambling" - even when there's no money involved. Put even a small monetary reward in and you'll get loads of people taking part just for fun, in most cases.

So how do prediction markets avoid this?
I agree. There are several instances of "valid" keys nobody should use.
Of course... If you send someone unencrypted data, they can read it. Companies at least have to follow some laws regarding the data - don't expect that with private instances (not controlled by you).
I much prefer Devbox because it lets Nix be what it's best at without needing a user to know anything at all about its DSL and has a very straightforward on-ramp for even Nix-naive teams. Its easy OCI image creation is icing on the cake for container development.
I think it came about at a time when Stallman was trying to make a power grab for Linux and a lot of people saw it as empire building rather than as a serious project they could get behind. Meanwhile Linux was hitting The Network Effect at a time when people were itching for a challenger to Windows, and The Hurd was never going to be that.
Very difficult questions, with even harder answers. IMHO it’s totally different trying to liberate the knowledge locked behind paywalls (books, research papers, studies…) and the real piracy of digital content (movies, software, audio…). Many different factors to consider and I think it all comes down to personal views and preferences.
Good choice! It's one of those "one idea book" but it's a good idea. You CAN do a decent job at forecasting as a human and the book does explain to some extent:
1) how to benchmark predictions.
2) how these people approach making a prediction.
Gender expression (the norms you talk of) is distinct from both gender identity and biological sex, and identity doesn't prescribe them. The difference is you are saying identity has to be prescribed by biological sex.

If you want to get rid of the words man/woman altogether socially, feel free to advocate for that, but until you succeed, don't dictate to trans people that live in a society with those words that they (and they alone) can't use the ones they identify with.
Is this not the same case for Twitter?
I have written a book that ended up on Z-Library (and some other shadow libraries). It did bother me a little bit at first yes. I had spent hours of my spare time working on that book and, while I definitely didn't do it for the money, it still hurt a bit to think that folks could just download it for free.

But at the end of the day, I wrote my book to communicate knowledge I had and thought was valuable, and if people who couldn't afford the $30 got some value out of it then it was worth it. Now obviously it would be different for someone trying to make a living out of their writing.
There might be a sweet spot where the payoff is large but the notority is low (think about one criminal organization going after the other).

Unless there are street fights, people will not care that much.

Or perhaps political opponents in unstable countries.

On the government side the USs reach is far and criminals are not always willing (or able) to go beyond it. Maybe coordinating with China won't happen, but let's say Japan, mexico and 2 EU countries is not out of the ordinary.

There are busts happening almost every year on that scale
Twitter Dataset: June-December 2009
Interesting that Norton seems to use Unix timestamps. I’ve never developed for Windows, is it common for Windows devs to use them too? Or just some niche feature causing a more widespread problem?
I should clarify, the issues were with Docker. So far, our M1 devs are able to use Nix fine, though the official installation scripts sometimes don't set the path correctly.