skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Used books from the post amazon days will be increasingly, investably rare.
And do you think the probability of the thing you describe (or anything analogous to it but still arising from the same intervention) is substantial?

I’m not claiming that all charity should be done in such an attempt-to-be-expected-utility-maximizing way, as there may be some like, component of how donations for more local causes might do more to improve the character of the person donating, and other things like that,

but I don’t see your view of “but-serendipity, and but-mosquito-nets-is-no-fun” don’t seem like compelling reasons to not look at QALYs and such.

That being said, I personally haven’t made any substantial donations, so if you’ve made even fairly inefficient donations (as long as they were at least a little effective, and not e.g. counterproductive) then your donations have likely done more good than mine have.
That’s the sense I got too, especially after reading the fellatious piece on SBF from sequoia capital. Trying too hard to justify getting rich, because that would theoretically help the world, in the end, regardless of the means to get there.
For international numbers I believe you can use

http://internalteli.unlec.com/
Yes, I think this is reasonable. I would also like to take a moment to reiterate why so many people are bitter about the marketing / admin angle:

I pay them money. Charity pays consultants to turn that into more money (plus admins to manage the consultants). Consultants determine that a fraction of that money should be used to solicit more donations. Research indicates best source of new donations is in fact existing donors.

At this point charity is spending money I gave them to extract further donations from me. The ice-cream cone is now licking itself :/
Maybe lots of a managed subdivision.
Ads are an inseparable part of the experience with professional sportsball. You can't have the sport without the ads, so it's like complaining that you like watching NASCAR races in-person from front-row seats, and that you love the gas-guzzling carbureted engines they use, but you don't like all the noise from the engines and tires and wish they were all silent. Sure, you can wish for that, but the laws of physics prevent it. It's the same here; the ads are an inseparable part of the experience.
Erratum on the off chance anyone relevant is reading here: page i and ii (first two pages of the table of contents) are in the wrong order (swapped).
I was referring to users choice of TikTok, not the “content of” TikTok.

Why should the US government decide which apps free people download? Free people ostensibly have no obligation to government security concerns.

Assange, Snowden, Swartz. Migrant children in cages.

Along with the list in my original post, and recent history I was alive for that includes numerous other examples; US citizens and its politicians are bullies who ignore their own bullying.

Not saying “China good.” I’m saying “US bad.”
And yet after asking repeatedly nobody can provide me a source where they have changed their minds after the fact about the first booster
>Firstly, you can't predict the future so really you're working off your biases.

Um, are you saying that this implies that people should just throw up their hands and donate to whatever causes since who knows? Surely not. Once we acknowledge that these questions can be tackled empirically, that's what EA tries to do. Is there room for bias in this process? Absolutely. Does that justify embracing some sort of epistemic nihilism? Absolutely not.
This was fun. Thanks for this
Enron was the Elf Aquitaine [1] compounding moment of the energy industry. It's not comparison, it's a chain reaction, fraud begets fraud.

[1] Happened in 1994: 'the biggest fraud inquiry in Europe since the Second World War... Elf became a private bank for executives who spent £200 million on political favours, mistresses, jewellery, fine art, villas and apartments', £200 million, how quaint https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elf_Aquitaine#Fraud_scandal_(1...
I would argue ransomware is improving U.S. security by providing a direct financial incentive for institutions to improve their cybersecurity.
> My eyes instinctively moved to the ad away from the puck.

At some marketing meeting this was brought up and was promptly considers a feature, not a bug.
I just watched all the videos of Saltcorn on Youtube - and amongst the tools I researched so far this was most impressive. About to use it for a few internal tools soon.
You would only watch sport in person if it wasn't for ads. ESPN and TNT ain't paying the NBA billions for the TV deals so they can not sell ads.
Do you really think a business works best if the owner surrounds themselves with yeasayers who nod along to everything they say, no matter how factually wrong it is?
You're forgetting all the lifecycle emissions and the whole 'if capture is cheaper' part given that running a coal plant without CCS is more expensive than replacing it with new solar panels in many areas already.
Honestly not bad for the proof of irrational numbers, sure mathematically it’s totally wrong but it very accurately writes in the style of mathematicians and it manages to keep its variables consistent and carry forward the knowledge that a = b = c/d. Damn impressive for a “predict the next word” style AI with (I assume) no specific magic for understanding math.
No, stacking is a (partial) workaround for Github "pull requests" being bad, by reimplementing the ordinary Git way to submit changes (one email per commit, reviewable inline. look at any patch thread at https://public-inbox.org/git/).

Doing this doesn't really make them good, but it makes them at least reviewable.
Except there is a Buddhist stupa at the site.
https://www.harappa.com/blog/buddhist-stupa-mohenjo-daro
He paid fealty to the regime and tens of millions of dollars of bribes and protection money to the ruling class.

Provided he told all the right people to get out while the getting was good, he's got good reason to be confident. I bet he knows about a lot of skeletons in closets too, although people tend to wind up not killing themselves in prison when they try to use that kind of leverage against the mob, so he'd be well advised to take his flailing about the wrists with a sauteed lettuce leaf if it came to that.
There are crypto exchanges that deliberately offer a bank-like user interface and use bank-like terminology to make people think they are as safe as banks. Example:

Crypto.com:

The World’s Fastest Growing Crypto App
Join 50M+ users buying and selling 250+ cryptocurrencies at true cost
Spend with the Crypto.com Visa Card and get up to 5% back
Grow your portfolio by receiving rewards up to 14.5% on your crypto assets
Apple iOS download icon
Android Play Store download icon

It looks like a bank. It works like a bank. It pays much higher yields. 50 million people are using it. How could it be a scam?
Or is it Carp?
I used to use zoho docs with a local copy and just mostly trust them. After they merged docs with drive and messed up the tagging, I'm moving to local nextcloud with a Borg backup to rsync.net. Using passwords in a password manager because they're still random but easier to deal with than large keys in an emergency recovery.
>Instead of like being humble, not accumulating wealth for yourself, not thinking of yourself as better, etc.

The EA advice is that if you're good at something valuable, then the best strategy for being charitable is to do that valuable thing and then donate your money. Do you think it's incompatible with humility to believe that you're good at something valuable? I don't think there's any notion of "thinking of yourself as better" baked in here.
>It sucks that these huge sports leagues have little in the way of competition.

Of course they do: people could spend their time doing (or watching) something else. Watch a TV show or movie, read a book, listen to some music, practice playing an instrument, cook some food, write a software program, go on a walk; there's endless things to do with your time besides watching sports. If you don't like the ads and the contempt for viewers from the people running the sports leagues, then stop giving them your time and attention.
Programming by Punch Card
Transparency International maintains a global corruption index - the US ranks 27th in terms of "least corrupt" which is within the top quintile. Many other countries rank worse. For example, Fiji is rated 45th on the index.

You can absolutely use money to influence politicians in the US, but that's likely true of wherever you live too. New Zealand is a very not-corrupt country according to the corruption index, but I seem to recall Peter Thiel had no trouble purchasing citizenship in contravention of their laws - I'm sure money had nothing to do with that though.
Found and liked this on his site:

READ CAREFULLY

By reading this website, you agree, on behalf of your employer, to release me from all obligations and waivers arising from any and all NON-NEGOTIATED agreements, licenses, terms-of-service, shrinkwrap, clickwrap, browsewrap, confidentiality, non-disclosure, non-compete and acceptable use policies ("BOGUS AGREEMENTS") that I have entered into with your employer, its partners, licensors, agents and assigns, in perpetuity, without prejudice to my ongoing rights and privileges. You further represent that you have the authority to release me from any BOGUS AGREEMENTS on behalf of your employer.

Optimized for Netscape Navigator.
I just had a conversation with a military police officer.

He said one one of the ways they catch soldiers who go AWOL is to show up when they file for veterans benefits.
I looked at your previous comments and retract my accusation. Apologies.

Most of the time when someone mentions CO2 air concentration it's as a prelude to pushing CCS or some vague idea about producing 100s of kW of energy per person using nuclear abundanceand I pattern matched a little preemptively.

This doesn't excuse your rhetoric about it not being urgent though. The damage may take effect later, but it is being done right now.
I’ve been vaguely following all the AI news on text to image and text that comes out from promos. But I have no idea how a benchmark for text would work. Is benchmarking subjective? Is it based on accuracy of information? How do you actually measure a benchmark for something like this?
I would think so, yes.

Like, I know Vitalik Buterin said “stop making me a continued recipient of whatever coin project you are creating and just make those go to an effective charity like givewell and such”, and people followed that instruction.

The great works of charity, well, look at the charities they endorse, like, against malaria foundation and givewell etc. , and look at what these organizations have achieved.
But that's kind of the point of the whole "electronic books last longer" argument. You don't have to worry about either of those things with electronic books.
This post does not have a concrete conclusion, it is just some thoughts I had while reading the article.

---

EA seems to have a core belief in post-scarcity. I've recently been thinking about post-scarcity. To my knowledge, I have not been engaging with EA content; I wonder if it has become pervasive because of their efforts, or if the time is ripe for the concept.

I've also been thinking about the number of different times that religion has evolved in a population. Religion fulfills various psychological needs; for a while it was popular for atheist thinkers to say we have evolved past the need for religion. I am agnostic, but I think people still need 'religion' and they will in the future. It may not be a religion with a personal god or gods; the concept of the divine comes from the human mind, the human mind will always have a place for godliness of some kind. I could be wrong, religion could be a blip, but I don't think so.

Religions of the past have reflected the tribalism inherent in the human condition. There has always been a fight with another tribe that was the most pressing. Other fights are suspended or suppressed until the main fight is concluded or paused. From my lifetime, the main fight was the Cold War until that concluded, and then it was national politics. It's very hard to come to terms with the core beliefs and morality of the main opponent, no matter who or when.

I'm sure EA says something about religion and tribalism, but the human experience is also important. The human experience starts in a place, with some people. Those people are your tribe, until you find another tribe. Their religion is your religion, until you find another religion.
>"Helping people" implies you know what people need.

No it doesn't. I'm content to outsource my charitable decision-making to recommenders that I think align with my values. A competitor is free to come along and convince me that they'd make a better recommendation and I'll shift my money accordingly, just like buying any other product. They can even skim a bit off the top if I really trust them and give to their funds! That's the invisible hand.
It's 'carpe diem', Latin for 'infish the day'
Q. When will Betelgeuse blow up?

A. Sorry, your query didn't pass our content filters. Try again and keep in mind this is a scientific language model.
There are layers to crypto's predominant "discourse" depending on which wave you came in through. The earliest waves were all utopian technologists, libertarians, and Silk Road users. The ICO era brought in more people who had played with penny stocks or forex, and imposed some of those "gamblers and swindlers" attitudes. And as talk of "institutional crypto" started popping up you got a much more Wall-Street influenced crowd that funded conspicuously large endeavors with intentionally obfuscating and centralizing properties. For the most part, none of these people in the later waves perceived the tech as a good that could be deployed for societal coordination(since what distributed ledgers ultimately do is just another method of organizing information), they just saw a zero-sum game they could compete and try to "win" in by ultimately exiting to dollars, or by building a large organization in the "crypto industry"(utter nonsense - it's ruled by protocols, and the downfall of FTX further demonstrates that).

People who just held BTC in their own wallets over all of these waves, didn't lose custody of the keys or sell, did marvellously well. Internationally, BTC remains useful to countries with unstable currencies; not because ordinary people are all interested in holding it for its own sake, but because it enables banking and payment services outside of the traditional system, which means that in some parts of the world you can go to "a guy in the market with some phones" and he can set you up with options for exchanging currency, getting remittances, etc. Often USD is used on one side of the trade rather than a native crypto asset; it's crypto being used as a pragmatic tool rather than a manifest ideology.

In contrast, people who really try to trade the market actively either have an "angle" for getting an information advantage(e.g. they possess some data or influence, in the way that SBF did), or they are most likely gambling with leveraged bets and getting sliced to pieces by highly optimized trading bots.

If you take a position in crypto as a simpleton(which is my standpoint, and shouldn't be taken as gospel investment advice), it's better to move slowly, accept absurdly high volatility and just aim to survive; do not use products that "give you some help with that"; assume the tech is sharp-edged, use official wallets, and keep careful track of the keys. Many people who work on crypto don't actually own a lot of it.
Well, I do believe that some of these charities explicitly recommend giving 10-20% of your income..
What you might not want to understand is that we were patient with them long enough. They did this in Georgia and Moldova and Ukraine before.

What it shows is that they dont stop. Now they want an entire very big country. So this is the line in the sand. Let them cross this and Poland and Romania might be next. And then maybe Hungary and Germany. And so on.

An wanna be empire/dictator does not stop at your border because they like you or they have mercy. They stop for reinforcements and then move on to you.
It only offers overcollateralized "trustless" loans (ie instant with no credit check or KYC). However, KYC'd undercollateralized lending protocols are making some headway. The most popular one currently is called Maple, wherein delegates can perform credit checks on borrowers, and provide first-loss capital, while lenders can be you and me.

One can imagine that a "crypto finance" mortgage would look similar to a traditional mortgage in that credit checks and property assessments are needed, however when on-chain it could be done with more transparency (and having just gone through the process I can tell you it is NOT transparent) - the biggest benefit would be borrowing money from a real pool of user capital as opposed to a bank, so real people can earn 7% APY on their money backed by a basket of home loans, with a very transparent middleman. Does that make sense?
Facebook suspension after account compromise – no recourse?
Posting here on behalf of a friend who is the director of a community choir. For better or worse, the choir uses (not exclusively) Facebook to communicate internally, and Facebook and Instagram to promote shows.

A few weeks ago, her personal account, and the Facebook and Instagram accounts for the choir, were all suspended. Facebook provides a form[0] for appealing this - upon submission, the form throws up an error saying "Your form couldn't be sent. Log in to your Facebook account for more information about how to request a review." which is incredibly unhelpful.

From what we can tell, one account or other was compromised and some pornographic material was posted on the choir's Instagram. A cursory examination of all the accounts' history/logs would show this.

So this is a last-ditch effort to find any other avenue to pursue. It might sound trivial, but I can see this affecting her mental health - both from the impact it's had on the choir and the personal feeling of unease that can come from this kind of compromise. If you have any advice, please help!

[0] https://www.facebook.com/help/contact/269030579858086
NASA's Exploration Ground Systems – We are in our planned hold at T-10 minutes
NASA's Exploration Ground Systems - @NASAGroundSys

We are in our planned hold at T-10 minutes. Currently, the upper stage liquid hydrogen is 78% filled.

Core stage has been topped off – both liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen are 100% filled.

The ethernet switch has been replaced and will be verified.
Local drive synced with backblaze b2. Great product!
Wow, these guys are really lost.

I used to respect them, and even during the past few days I thought this crisis was a major opportunity for them to reflect and find their way again.

So I posted a comment on their forum with (i) an observation that they could regain trust by doing their share (I suggested twice the money they received from FTX) to make financial fraud victims whole before resuming their regular program, and (ii) a link to https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BZ6XaCwN4QGgH9CxF/the-kelly-... , the first paragraph of which might have stopped SBF from making the big wrong turn in his reasoning (note that almost all other arguments on the Internet against SBF's reasoning don't actually work). Nothing but downvotes.

I recommend against any further association with these people in the strongest possible terms. (I'll retract this if it turns out that the downvoters were the exception and the EA community actually proceeds to demonstrate good citizenship in something like the manner I suggested, but I'm not holding my breath.)
> Hello, I am Eliza. I'll be your therapist today.[0]

[0] https://web.njit.edu/~ronkowit/eliza.html
They're just giving Roko's Basilisk his due.
How is it Shiva if IVC predated Aryan migration?
The scam is fractional reserve banking. That's bad enough on its own but you gotta consider the fact these are unregulated banks which means they don't really have to follow rules such as "you must keep X% of all deposits as a reserve".

So not only do these exchanges inflate the cryptocurrency supply, they're also prone to overleveraging themselves in their attempts to "efficiently allocate" customer funds, exposing them to risk without them even realizing it, often losing everything in the process and crashing the entire cryptocurrency economy when that inflated money supply disappears into thin air.
The parent said:

> This looks incredible. A simple command to uncommit or unamend makes you further realise what a disaster the Git CLI is.

I said that simple command already exists in VS Code. Yes it can be done via CLI, but not as simply as in VS Code. Not sure what your claim is.
Following up, [0] and [3] are still up, but [1] and [2] have been removed.
What name is manipulative?
>I've been convinced for sometime now that "effective altruism" (Lesswrong-ism? Yudkowskianism?) is the communism of the 21st century.

I mean, maybe sorta.. the eschatology is far more interesting with EA, at least.
So saying something like “I like the modern internet for the most part but not the ads” would in your opinion be a similarly nonsensical statement?
Those numbers were likely real. Any serious MM firm can quickly get an idea if the books/volumes on an exchange are legitimate and leaves if not (high theft risk on fake venues).

Aside from 365mm on 10bn being a bad trade, the volume will 100% drop off drastically after the loss of trust. That 365mm would be fortunate to stay above 36mm in my opinion
Now Dexter's really worried...
I like to take example categories from order theory, like with lattices and preorders and such. All such orders are also categories; the objects are the elements of the order, and the arrows are the relationships. However, if x <= y in the order, then there's only one arrow x -> y -- the order doesn't distinguish the different ways two objects can be related, only the mere fact that they are. (This is the difference between an order and a category: categories do allow us to distinguish the multiple ways two things can be related.)

Lots of category theory has direct analogues in order theory. Functors are monotone functions, for instance; monads are closure operators; and presheafs are lower sets. But since there's at most one arrow between any two objects, you don't have to worry about all the coherence conditions you end up seeing in category theory. Their whole purpose is to make sure that you pick "the right" arrow in various circumstances; but when there's only one arrow, it is trivially the right one.
The entire business model of sports entertainment ventures like NBA is built around advertising. Saying I'm a fan of the NBA except for the ads is a bit like saying I'm a big fan of credit cards except for that part where you have to pay the bill.
This seems correct. Thanks for putting it so succinctly.
I feel like I've seen this picture as a bit on a TV show, but I can't remember which one. Maybe Arrested Development, when they were making a lot of George Sr/Transparent jokes?
Air Force's Mysterious Spaceplane Finally Lands After 2.5 Years in Orbit
They don't do it because fuel is so cheap, lol.
Hopefully a dumb question that I missed an answer for in the docs. If I have an existing git repo (not hosted on github), is there a way to try using sapling with it? Or do I need to clone it from scratch?

My impression from the blog post is that I can use sapling and have everything "look" git-like from the remote repo's point of view.
SAR doesn't care about whether you have insurance. They simply stick you with a bill if they think you were negligent or the situation shouldn't have happened if there was adequate preparation and/or skill.

Then you, the rescued, file a claim with whatever insurance you think is appropriate and make your case. Maybe insurance investigates and looks up the SAR incident report, maybe they don't. Either way SAR isn't part of any alleged insurance fraud.