skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
I once built a forecasting framework for a unicorn startup. Revenue and Pipeline predictability was the key as the company was going through the IPO phase. There were three approaches I took and 'ensemble'd them to predict the revenue and pipeline.

1. Time series based forecast based on revenue (the one OP is referring to). All the statistical time-series models come here. I primarily used H2O.ai for this.

2. Conversion based revenue forecast (input -> pipeline, output -> revenue). This proved to be quite tricky as there was a time lag between pipeline creation and revenue conversion

3. Delphi-method: Got the sales/pre-sales folks on-ground to predict a bottom-up number and used that as a forecast.

Finally, I combined them by applying weightages to the above approaches - based on how accurate they were on the test dataset.

IMHO, Like many of them have pointed out - the model/assumptions are more important than the library. The job of a data scientist is to make the prediction as reliable and explainable as possible.
Author's 2017 paper on SILE in Tugboat, the journal of the TeX Users' Group: https://tug.org/TUGboat/tb38-1/tb118cozens.pdf
At this point, posting this sentiment on HN is more boring and irritating than the tweet-thread format could ever be.
Full size RVs might be great if you avoid cities, with a van you can probably find a decent spot to stay on Manhattan.

The fact that you can access so many more places could reasonably multiply the value of such a vehicle.
You gotta understand their angle...

... in the early days of the internet ...

... comments could be very, very long; the user was given a virtual unbounded battleground to fight their ideological battles ...

... The public, the rabble, couldn't stop.. The words kept coming; a torrent of consonants and vowels descending upon our eye ba ... (limit exceeded)

... lls like an avalanche of ideas ...

... it was too much and twitter was borne ...

... the people keep their ideas small, like their tiny brains, and non-existent attention spans ...

P.S. I was gonna write this as a comment chain, but HackerNews, in all their wisdom, limits self-replies to only one
https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/ceo-patrick-collisons-email...
We are also pretty early into the cycle to declare that a recession is inevitable. Yet that's what a lot of people are saying. The only thing that can be said with certainty is that the future is risky and unclear. IOW, situation normal, all f^#$ed up.

It's not the election, it's Black Friday that will be the bellweather, I think. If inflation is still ongoing, discounts will be minimal. If the economy is going south, sales will be tepid. Nobody is ready to lower prices permanently, but temporarily? Massive discounts are the traditional way for retailers to lower prices in times of uncertainty. The rise of the dollar and the inflation of the past year will give retailers lots of room for discounts, so I expect to see them liberally applied. And with unemployment so low and low-income wages rising so quickly, I expect to see record retail spending this month.
200k is pretty dang pricey for a mobile.
Google and Meta track for the US Government though, TikTok tracks for the CCP. That's literally it. That's the difference.

Big Tech is part of the government surveillance apparatus. The reason Russia and China don't want Google and FB having a foothold in their countries is the same reason the US doesn't want TikTok to have a foothold here.
I'm not sure why that's relevant. You can buy a shirt that covers your body for $5, but most of us are wearing something more expensive for a variety of reasons. If you are wearing a pebble, you probably want the sort of smart features.
There are a few challenges with this approach.

1. Blocking people is reactive. It means that everybody still sees the first time somebody DMs them calling them a slur. If you instead take the approach of "block everybody that the ML system thinks is alt-right" or "block every post that the ML system thinks is spam" then you are right back at the fun problems of false positives and defaults.

2. People aren't just concerned about their personal experiences on these services. Advertisers are concerned about their ads showing right next to posts calling jewish people evil. Citizens are concerned about the radicalization effect such that even if I don't see conspiracy posts about liberals eating babies, those vortexes still lead to social harm.
High performers on redundant teams would almost certainly be transferred, assuming there isn't some odd middle management infighting going on.
Or retweet individual posts. It makes each one a possible pull-quote.
Reddit tried to just let communities moderate themselves.

It resulted in rampant child pornography, doxxing, death threats, gory violence etc. It epitomised the worst of humanity.

Now the Reddit admins keep a watch on moderators and if their subreddits do not meet site-wide standards they are replaced.
> The formula is as simple as it is unreplicated:

> - Always telling the time

> - Good battery life

> - Buttons

I'm not so sure this is "unreplicated". Since bailing on Pebble I've had 2 Garmin watches which always tell the time, and have good battery life and buttons.
> Resource usage is very low as everything is written in Rust

Woohoo! Glad to see this being implemented in practice. I'm excited.
Bring it to the max with multipath ;) since you have already Freebsd, no need to throw those beautiful reliable thing's away, maybe just buy a second...third? Dirt-cheap 100MBit card:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multipath_TCP#Implementation
This is great! It’s like modern poetry. I think the research suggests less words per line make it faster reading too.
Just put a "green" and "electric" sticker on it and it becomes climate neutral, that's what we did with cars, it works
Sadly mine has a dead battery, and I'm afraid to replace it and damage the seal. I switched to multiple "cheap" smartwatches (Mi Band, Amazfit Bip) before settling on the bangle.js2, but despite the specs being similar, the OS on the Pebble feels way more responsible and faster. Hopefully that improves over time, and the main developer (Gordon Williams, who is also the main dev for Espruino upon which the bangle.js firmware is based on) is easy to reach out and talk to :)

Loved my Pebble, and I appreciate my bangle.js2 more and more.
You've lived through the past several years and seen the complete failure of all of the NPIs. Are you just refusing to acknowledge it? Clinging to a covidian version of the "stabbed in the back" myth where if some people had just masked harder or gotten injected sooner, covid could have been extinguished?

Did you even search for any peer-reviewed papers about surgical mask effectiveness against covid?

Here's a model study that aligns closely with what we've all observed in real life (i.e. rooms full of masked people spreading and getting covid):

"Effectiveness of Face Masks in Preventing Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2"
https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mSphere.00637-20

"IMPORTANCE Airborne simulation experiments showed that cotton masks, surgical masks, and N95 masks provide some protection from the transmission of infective SARS-CoV-2 droplets/aerosols; however, medical masks (surgical masks and even N95 masks) could not completely block the transmission of virus droplets/aerosols even when sealed."

Here's the clinical study that found no difference between N95s and surgical masks:

"N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel: A Randomized Clinical Trial"
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31479137/

"Among outpatient health care personnel, N95 respirators vs medical masks as worn by participants in this trial resulted in no significant difference in the incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza."

Now, how many replication-competent virions need to make it around, through, etc. a face covering in order to initiate an infection? The answer is one.

And you're aware that covid infections can be initiated via the exposed regions of mucous membrane around your eyes (ocular mucous membrane), right? Have you been wearing a full-facepiece respirator with N100 filters installed when you went outdoors?

No, I know. You think that stopping some virions, 60% or even 30%, must be useful. And we'll all pretend that eyes aren't a significant route of infection because we can't get the rubes to all wear ski goggles everywhere all the time.

As the saying goes, it's much easier to con someone than to get them to admit later that they've been conned.
It is not pedantic, it is people derailing possibly interesting discussion of the content with completely off-topic noise discussion of the presentation. If you do not like the presentation there are ways to change it.
The medical schools carefully coordinate admissions with residency counts so that everyone is guaranteed a spot.
This looks interesting, thanks for all those warnings, i will stay away from it for now.

However the next question would always be which cloud provider to use.

Is OVH cloud archive the cheapest cloud storage for backups in europe? It lets me use scp or rsync, among others.

They are charging(§) $0.011/GB for traffic and $0.0024/month/GB for storage.

So if my total backup is size 100gb and i upload 5gb per day of incremental backups i pay around $2 per month.

--

§ https://www.ovhcloud.com/en/public-cloud/prices/#473
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BIC_lighter

beg pardon i assumed these conquered the entire world some time ago.
OP seems more of a 10x dude IMHO
I found the letters shifting around as you used them to be frustrating and confusing. I also wasn’t sure whether unused letters remain or are replaced between rounds.

Nevertheless I enjoyed it well enough… the one time I got to play it
Someone on this site suggested that programs open another filehandle along with stdout and stderr (stdjson) for their json output which struck me as a way to make this work in a backwards-compatible fashion.
https://youtu.be/OrVskziCc4w
I'd hope so, but it's a lot harder to identify the high performers, figure out where to transfer them to, cut low performers from the teams they're moving to, etc. Unfortunately much easier to just cut teams as the company cuts scope.
Interesting, that wasn’t my interpretation of the twitter thread, it was more that spam and not hurtful content was the real tricky thing about moderating social media.
> Instead of being petulant about it, you could ignore it and move o

Not wanting to see gratuitous self-promoting spam degrading the signal/noise ratio of an otherwise interesting discussion is hardly petulance. Replace any Zig reference shoe-horned into this discussion with, say, Java, and see if you have any point.
Track your bone health, Monitor the progress of your treatments
> I understands the usage of Hash / Map instead of searching arrays and many other small things that actually enhance the code performance

I would consider this an assumed skill for any developer with a college degree. It’s basically the point of the entire Data Structures class, which is a degree requirement.
Why are you adding () after "like"? Havent seen that convention before, so I am unaware of the meaning.
I feel the same way. I hate interviewing because I usually need to study for stuff I won't use. I also didn't do CS in college and some times I feel like this is the missing point in my career.

Some companies have a more straight forward interview process. Try to stay away from big companies. There are startups paying very well.
> How did you generate those flamegraphs and what other tools did you use to measure performance?

We have an internal shell script that takes hwpmc output and generates flamegraphs from the stacks. It also works with dtrace. I'm a huge fan of dtrace. I also make heavy use of lockstat, AMD uProf, and Intel Vtune.

> Did the graph show the bottleneck contention on aio queue? Did the graph show that "a lot of time was spent accessing memory"?

See the graph on page 32 or so of the presentation. It shows huge plateaus in lock_delay called out of the aio code. Its also obvious from lockstat stacks (run as lockstat -x aggsize=4m -s 10 sleep 10 > results.txt)

See the graph on page 38 or so. The plateaus are mostly memory copy functions (memcpy, copyin, copyout).

We already use FreeBSD on our CDN, so it just made sense to do the work in FreeBSD.

The talk is on Youtube https://youtu.be/36qZYL5RlgY
Edit: I apologize that my original post was dismissive of your effort to help people use twitter.
Collison's email says this layoff returns Stripe to it's February (presumably 2022) headcount.
I understand the top comment as follows: The AIs were trained under one set of rules (remove obvious dead stones from your territory before counting) but are judged (in the paper) by another set of rules (if you have one opposing stone in your territory, that territory does not count).

Thus its no surprise that the AI can be attacked in this way: if you would apply the set of rules that it was trained with, all games from the paper would result in a (huge!) win for the AI.
Stripe Cutting Headcount by 14% as It Readies for ‘Leaner Times’
Perhaps Forebase was the first one to do it right, the biggest features were Real-Time and as you've mentioned, Push notifications. Everyone else has been attempting to compete. The big win for us is that many of these solutions are open source. Shout-out to Supabase and shout-out to Postgresql which allows for this to be possible.
My needs are pretty simple - a program that makes grocery lists that I print. groff with the ms macros works very well. I used to use LaTeX but never figured out how to use it without installing gigabytes of stuff. This is my fault - surely I could have learned plain TeX, or learned how to work the TeX distribution to only install the stuff I needed. But ultimately it was just easier to get going with groff.
I really think Netflix could make some good money being a multimedia-cdn (even for "competitors")
Yes, really. I never see 'recommended' or 'so-and-so liked...' in my feed.
LBJ notably makes no distinction between looking down with sympathy or looking down with disdain. And as much as I hate him (actually, I really hate Kennedy more, LBJ got dealt a shit hand) I think that so long as the discussion is constrained to the purposes of getting people to empty their wallets that detail can safely be omitted.
> after all, it's pure sugar on top of your agreed upon salary no matter how you slice it

I strongly disagree, at least in my area and culture. It's widely assumed that employers will provide some kind of year-end holiday-time bonus. It's just as much a part of exprcted total compensation as tips in industries afflicted by that cancer.

An employer stiffing employees deserves to be called out for violating norms.
What choice are you gonna take? If it's good ham, that seems like a good choice.
Monads definitely

But category theory?
This shows you how bad the rental and housing market is.
C2x Auto
For me, I didn't wear watches before. Pebble got me into it. And now I wear watches with no batteries, so maybe reverse Stockholm syndrome?

I loved my Garmin, but I hated the notifications. And I couldn't disable the fitness related notifications. I'm at a point where I hate all notifications though, and have them only enabled for work and my wife. Everyone/everything else can wait.
UF2, not U2F (which is a different acronym)
Agree totally with this. It's a hot mess tbh and very unreliable. As suggested restic (with autorestic as a wrapper) is a great replacement.
Nobody else has asked it, so I will: DOES Proton Bridge work OK with mutt ?

(If so, I will make the jump from the free plan.)
60 mbps is easily beyond the limits of many home wifi network setups, and leaves the serving end with capacity for something like 166 users per 10 Gbit port. There are many additional costs to consider beyond the size of the home pipe
I think you have to be quite credulous to engage in this topic of "twitter moderation" as if it's in good faith. It's not about about creating a good experience for users, constructive debate or even money. It's ALL about political influence.

> Iʻm heartened to know that @DavidSacks is involved.

I'm not. I doubt he is there because Twitter is like Zenefits, it's because his preoccupation over the last few years has been politics as part of the "New Right" Thiel, Master, Vance etc. running fund raisers for DeSantis and endorsing Musk's pro-Russian nonsense on Ukraine.

https://newrepublic.com/article/168125/david-sacks-elon-musk...
Ok, show me where the EU has made a public commons on the internet?
I don't think these are apples to apples comparisons. Yes, watches had much longer batteries, but they didn't have smart features. So you're really comparing the Pebble to something with a comparable feature set, like another smart watch.

Phones used to be powered directly from the wire and work even during a power outage and now they have batteries and die, but I'm still willing to trade that feature to have a GPS and text messaging.
Tactile buttons, easy replies, and the epaper display. Such a simple combination, but I don't think we'll ever see a new one again. Seeing the time without having to shake my wrist like a maniac was such a game changer.

Haven't used a smart watch in 6ish years, so maybe they're better. From what I understand though, they still don't have always on displays for time, right? I hope I'm wrong and that they do.
“On Tuesday we set a new record for total daily transaction volume processed.”

How does a company breaking records 36 hours ago conclude they need to lay off 14% of the workforce? Even with economic storm clouds on the horizon that seems very jumpy.
Why didn't Stripe SPAC or IPO during the boom?

I imagine they could've went for 10-20x their current value like most IPOs during that time...

IIUC - Stripe actually has good financials.

As a comparison - Twitter had ~7500 employees. Stripe had ~8000.

So I wouldn't be surprised if they have room to cut ~14%. Though, I'm interested why now.

Are they planning to IPO soon or something? It just doesn't seem like a good time for that...
Project Merciless’: how Qatar spied on the world of football in Switzerland
Sounds like things for the legal system to handle.
You can actually email dang/the mods and make your case. Make sure to read up on the extensive documentation he shares for how he moderates and how he thinks about moderation right here on HN first, plus any discussion on past suggestions. Mastering the search box helps. A lot of modern HN policy and functionality started as recurring suggestions that became experiments.

https://hn.algolia.com/help

https://hn.algolia.com/settings

dang often references past discussions with search links, so here's a good starting point: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=7&prefix=true&que...
Who is doing a good job at scale? Is there really anyone we can look to other than people who “have experience, having made all the mistakes, and figured it out through trial and error”?
> In making these changes, you might reasonably wonder whether Stripe’s leadership made some errors of judgment. We’d go further than that. In our view, we made two very consequential mistakes, and we want to highlight them here since they’re important:

> - We were much too optimistic about the internet economy’s near-term growth in 2022 and 2023 and underestimated both the likelihood and impact of a broader slowdown.

> - We grew operating costs too quickly. Buoyed by the success we’re seeing in some of our new product areas, we allowed coordination costs to grow and operational inefficiencies to seep in.

https://stripe.com/br/newsroom/news/ceo-patrick-collisons-em...
Snap Store administrators removed signal-desktop from Ubuntu Snap
The old Something Awful forums did something similar. If someone posted something that was unacceptable, the comment would generally stay and the comment would get a tag saying “the user was banned for this post”. They also had a moderation history so you could go back and see mod comments on why they gave bans/probations.
I wish we could all go back to phpBB forums. Small, dedicated, online communities were great. I can't remember massive problems like this back then.
Never assume you know how easy or hard someone’s life has been. You know nothing about an individual a priori.
No one thinks that the segregationists of LBJs era were looking down in sympathy.
I think the pricing is alright. If for $7.99/mo someone can effectively solve their procrastination problem that seems totally worth it. Comparing it to the pricing on something like OmniFocus which is $9.99/mo, seems like there is a market of people willing to pay for this type of software.
It resulted in people _saying_ all those things happened, but never did.
A paid-for software that is not available for Linux is not a replacement for many.
And excellent wine can be a lot better than an OK wine for a similar cost. I think it's a perfect example where some expertise can dramatically increase the value. For wine drinkers, at least.
Also can't recommend duplicati. I never got it to work despite sinking many hours into it using different storage options. Not even local disk worked.

Instead, I'd recommend Arq backup.
> You can absolutely attach comments and documentation to variables, methods, and properties.

So instead of documenting it in a single place, your argument is to document it in dozens or hundreds of places and somehow that'll never get out of date. Even though the single documentation in a single place must be assumed out of date?

Cool story bro.

> Oh gee, is that an `int` month property that states it's range? Yes. Yes it is. And I don't have to drill further into the documentation to look at the type of the property, and can just look at the property?

How do you know what is January? Is it 0? 1? Or something else entirely because someone thought it'd be cute to use the value of "JAN" since, after all, that 4 byte string perfectly fits in a 4 byte int.

> I have better things to do than to create or untangle a mess of opaque types that do little more than obfuscate the code

enum class Month : int {
January,
February,
...
}

Holy shit look at that obscene effort and obscurity! I should enter IOCC with that unreadable masterpiece.

> won't actually add any safety in practice

`new Date(5, 10, 2020)`

Quick, what's the order of those arguments? Is it day month year? Or month day year like Americans like to do?
The flame graphs might be generated using Brendan Gregg's utility, see https://www.brendangregg.com/flamegraphs.html
Software team built on Low-code
In the wake of the vast digitalization wave in all industries, creating high-performing software teams is one of an IT organization's most essential and demanding tasks.
"Requires ios 16.2 or later" - wont this rule out a LOT of users?
What’s wrong with this thread? It seems really level headed and exactly accurate to the people I know IRL who are insane-but-left and insane-but-right who won’t shut up about censorship while if you look at their posts it’s just “unhinged person picks fights with and yells at strangers.”

HN in general is convinced that social media is censoring right ideas because it skews counterculture and “grey tribe” and there have been a lot of high profile groups who claim right views while doing the most vile depraved shit like actively trying to harass people into suicide and celebrating it or directing massive internet mobs at largely defenseless not public figures for clout.
> settle for a gimmicky automatic watch

You probably mean the marvel of mechanical engineering that has zero dependency on the outside world, needs no software updates, and will still continue running as new for years after all the smart watches will turn into useless pucks?