Which references, figures are all easily found on Google with associated terms, except maybe PRC imputed rent in GDP calculations which you'll find in mostly PRC sources or tweets from niche tweets by western PRC domain experts. IIRC think CSIS Chinapower podcast had episode on it years ago.

>less impressed

That's just reality of having too many people. Height of PRC manufacturing employed 300-400M. Even today there's still 600M making 1700 USD per year, largely undereducated unskilled labour pool stuck in migrant economy because to be blunt, their time's run out and they can't be integrated into modern economy. Global demand is simply not enough to provide opportunities for entire PRC population. PRC simply has too many excess people.

>demographic dividend
...
>Ph.D.s it mints.

It absolutely matters at PRC scale relative to peers. Above all else. China's un/semiskilled, undereducated workforce, majority with HS or less education attainment peaked. New cohort of educated (skilled/STEM dominant) post academic/R&D reform demographic is second wave of higher tier demographic divident.

(Old) PRC Workforce:
-50 unskilled workers
-48 semi-sskilled workers
-2 skilled workers

(New/Trending towards) PRC Workforce:
-20 unskilled workers
-30 semi-skilled workers
-20 skilled workers
- 50 worker replacements in terms of automation (thanks 20 skilled labour)

Old PRC with 100 workers makes low value widgets. New PRC with 70 workers makes high tech widgets and services in every sector and at top of value chain. New Has greater ceiling for development/productivity. It's competitive with US because PRC population denominator makes numbers stupid, i.e. generously scaled US workforce with 1/3 PRC population:

- 10 unskilled workers
- 10 semi-skilled workers
- 10 skilled workers
- 20 automation

That's being charitable considering # of STEM graduates and industrial automation PRC is building. Multiple fold current US. Compound with PRC, even with trash tier TFR is training 3x more skilled workers than US can domestically and with immigration. Or US's "mere" 10 skill workers and 10 semi-skilled workers was all it took become the most advanced economy in the world. JP,SK,TW would be some like 3,2,1 skilled workers.

In terms of income disparity trends, for new PRC, those 20 unskilled workers will basically be scraping by above PRC poverty levels until they die (2-4k USD per year). 30 semi skilled workers might eek up upper income (10-20k USD), skilled workers probably TW/JP/SKR tier (30-40k USD). And everyone is going to be stressed as fuck stuck in highly competitive east Asia work culture. It's unfair, but IMO PRC simply going to be a tiered society... with benefits. Semi-skilled vs skilled income gap large enough that semi-skilled labours wage will remain depressed. Think a rich gulf state with cheap, exploitable migrant labour force. Disparity in unskilled/poor income gap with is so large that modest wealth transfer (common properity) can keep their QoL improving (political stability). GDP India with 1.4B is around 15% US GDP, less than US spends on healthcare. PRC with greater PPP can keep 600M poor relatively serene.

As for Walmart PhD, PRC moving up in innovation/academic rankings (controlled for quality), it's not US / Saks on Fifth Avenue , but within upscale/luxury tier.