skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Doesn't this rest on the simple ambiguity in the phrasing?

> I have two children and one is a son born on a Tuesday.

If by that is meant:

> I have two children. Here is some information about one of them: son, born on Tuesday.

Then the probability of the other child being a son is 1/2.

If on the other hand we mean:

> I have two children. One or more is a son. Exactly one of them was born on a Tuesday.

Then we get the 13/27 probability.

In fact it doesn't seem reasonable at all to assume that only one was born on Tuesday, while at least one is a son. One single interpretation of 'one of them' must be applied to both the gender and day of birth. Otherwise we're picking and choosing our interpretation on a whim.

edit: Colin appears* to think that what I've said here is incorrect, and I'd like to know why. I'm not a maths/stats person at all so am very keen to be re-educated on this matter.

* based on his now-deleted reply to ars which said "no, it doesn't, and no, you're not"

Important Edit Two:

If I'm reading this right, I think the defender of the 13/27 solution would say:

No. We don't discount the possibility of both being tuesday-boys (TB), we just adjust the calculation so that it doesn't count (eldest=TB, youngest=TB) and (youngest=TB, eldest=TB) as two separate possibilities.

To which I respond:

Right, so it's not down to ambiguity. But shouldn't you also discount every other symmetrical pair such as (eldest=TB, youngest=WB) and (youngest=TB, eldest=WB) and thus return the odds to 1/2? Or does that not return the odds to 1/2?
I hate this one because while it says:

"I have two children and one is a son born on a Tuesday."

It actually means:

"I have two children and only one of them is a son
born on a Tuesday."

You are supposed to just assume this modification.
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So I have to install software on my computer to use it? No, thanks. They claim an advantage: "no content can be censored and no search results can be recorded and analyzed on central servers", this is extremely important for some applications, but for searching source code, I couldn't care less. It just raises the bar of adoption to the point I'm not interested in it.

General purpose client side software is dead. Client side software makes sense only for niche applications.
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Doesn't side-loading tethering apps work on Verizon (and newer AT&T phones)?

Of course, they can still get you via traffic analysis and other tricks, but that is a different sort of issue.
I have a gut feeling that we won't see something like that soon due to legal implications.
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Wanna be entrepreneurs unable to do basic math. Does it matter?
Ask HN: Customer validation before building a product
How do you go about getting customer validation before building a product?

You might know who your customers are but:

1) Cannot just walk into anyone's office

2) Emails could be as worse as - sent:recieved::100:1

What could be the other channels?
I think the point is there are tons of guides online for syncing outlook as long as you follow the basic format. One person's workflow can be quite different from another persons, even in Outlook. People have created rules, special signatures, mailboxes, folders, etc. and this is just in Outlook. Many of the online guides don't cover any of that and this isn't something you can resolve over a beer.

And that is the point, your quick 10-minute fix will only cause more problems down the line. I've also reached the same conclusion even before 30.

Edit: I'm reminded of a friend that makes music. He always burns a CD to play in his stereo. His stereo also has a USB port and will play MP3s from there. So I suggested instead of burning CDs he could just copy it to a USB key. So he does that and he hates it. Why? When he's burning a CD he gets to arrange the tracks in the order he likes. The stereo plays MP3s in alphabetical order. The time saved from not having to burn CDs is now wasted on having to rename MP3s into the proper order.

Yeah, whatever works for you.
I thought the opposite: ugh, it has some shitty (for my taste) music, lets just close it. :-/
more than that, the modification is inconsistently applied; we're supposed to magically know that only one is born on Tuesday, but not that only one is son.

edit: accidental downvote, sorry.

edit2: but see my top-level reply to OP.
In that case the developer of the converter (library) is the artist. I'm sure there's a lot of creative input involved in auto-converting a raster image into an ASCII figure.
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Definitely; IPython is great at making Python more self-documenting, with completion, the ? help function, and the ability to embed an interpreter anywhere in your program.
To answer the question posed by the title: no, I didn't think I understood Monty Hall, but thanks to this article I'm pretty sure I do now. This is a good explanation and analysis.
I have implemented TST (ternary search tree) in C to create fast dictionary (histogram) for counting words in Wikipedia. It is fast and memory efficient.
Won't it be anti-competitive? Facebook would probably sue Google if they specifically integrate such functionality into Chrome. (If they do it for all sites generally including G plus, then it would be fantastic)
These issues are not known to me, could you expand?
The pace at which more transistors are squeezed into the same amount of silicon has slowed down a bit, but the real difference between today and 20 years ago is that we've crossed the "good enough" threshold, and now we are optimizing other dimensions, like cost and portability. A good computer for web browsing and reading mail in 2006 is still a good computer for those tasks today. Back in the 90's, a videogame company that didn't release a new console generation after 3 or 4 years was dead; how long has it been since the Xbox360 and the PS3 were released? And nobody is clamoring for more polygons, so instead Sony is releasing a new PSP with roughly the same power as the PS3.
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Can't help, sorry. My experience is with Telstra in Australia
One place might be Q/A or support forums where the discussion can be a reasonable proxy to your project. For example if a recurring complaint or feature request is 'how can I xxy' or 'can you do xxy'. If your proposed product can do xxy, or reduce the hassle or cost of doing of xxy, that might help validate the need.
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ARMv8 64-bit instruction set architecture announced last month, designs due next year. When should Intel become afraid?
Assuming tablets will run android , i would be surprised if intel made much money from atom processors on the tablet, considering the competition.
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Yeah, same in Norway and Malaysia (where I live now).
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"The operators would be suckers if they give that for free instead of $30/mo"

So telcos outside the US are suckers? I'm from Norway and Telenor has tethering enabled and they are one of the biggest telcos in the world.
This doesn't excuse the editing, but I've heard that one problem is that publishers often don't have electronic rights to use the cover illustrations they use on physical books.
Let's try a simpler problem. Suppose we know that a
certain man has two children and we also know that the
older one is a boy. In this case we would say that the
probability that the other child is a boy is 1/2. After
all, the sex of one child is independent of the sex of
the other child. That the older child is a boy has no
bearing on the sex of the younger child.

Now suppose we know simply that a man has two children
and that one of them is a son. This time we would reason
that there is no possibility that the person has two
girls. It follows that the sexes of his two children,
ordered from oldest to youngest, are either BB, BG or GB.
Since these cases are equally likely, and since only one
of them involves having two boys, we would say the
probability that the man has two boys is 1/3.

Maybe I'm missing something, but this seems fundamentally wrong. Pr(two boys | older child = boy) is not equal to Pr(two boys | one+ child = boy)? Why is time so special? Could we not order them based on their height, and assert Pr(two boys | taller child = boy) = 1/2. Or, if there were a scale of masculinity, order them based on that and assert Pr(two boys | manlier child = boy) = 1/2, where manlier child = boy <==> one+ child = boy, so Pr(two boys | manlier child = boy) = Pr(two boys | one+ child = boy) (contradiction).
No, you shouldn't "also discount every other symmetrical pair", for exactly the same reason as there's a 1/36 chance of rolling double 6, but 2/36 chance of rolling a six and a one. It's all to do with labellings, and it's the most common source of error[1] in statistics.

[1] By "error" I mean calculations that then don't agree with the experimental results.
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I stopped caring about 'paradoxes' ever since I understood there's no isomorphism between pure mathematical concepts and human language.
p(2s\T)=p(2s & t)/p(T)

p(2s & T)=1/4(13/49)

p(T)=1/4(13/49)+1/2*(1/7)

p(2s\T)=(13/49)/(13/49+14/49)

p(2s\T)=13/27
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I'm on Linux, Eclipse Indigo. Maybe it doesn't like my AMD64 environment, dunno .. message is too cryptic.
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If I open the page using the chrome inspector I see all the log. It's really frustrating
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But that's not a rule, it's because women don't negotiate well.
This title can create a bit of unnecessary controversy, imho.
In the UK the pay difference between males & females under the age of 40 in Tech roles is nominal. There is a difference but it's not even remotely close to the disparity you would find 20 years ago.

That being said, over the past twelve months, female candidates consisted of approximately 5% of the people I represented. There are very few women in the industry and I've rarely come across any who are afraid to argue their worth. On the contrary in fact. Occasionally I have come across one or two women who were demanding a salary that was simply far beyond their worth and I imparted the same advice to them as I would to a male candidate and both women were incredibly offended by my feedback and refused to budge whereas almost every single male that I challenged actually listened to my advice and adjusted their rate to suit.

The idea of negotiating salary offers still appears to be a relatively unknown phenomenon here in the UK. You'd be surprised how few candidates stand their ground and push for more than 5% of the original offer regardless of gender.
> Now suppose we know simply that a man has two children and that one of them is a son. [snip] It follows that the sexes of his two children, ordered from oldest to youngest, are either BB, BG or GB. Since these cases are equally likely, and since only one of them involves having two boys, we would say the probability that the man has two boys is 1/3.

Errr. except these cases aren't equally likely - because the boy we know about could be either of the boys in the BB scenario, but only one either of the other two. So the probability is still 1/2.
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I don't think Mike is writing in the spirit you suggest; he's just arguing that you have to work hard to achieve something great. Is there something wrong with that argument? Of course, VCs want the people they invest in to work hard....does that surprise anyone? No one has to take VC money.....know what you're signing up for.
You mentioned pressure pushing you into your current field. Is this from family, peers, yourself?

Perhaps taking a short break away from this influence would allow you to assess the long list of options you have without clouded judgement.

It doesn't have to be all or nothing. What would it cost long term to put your education on hold for a year? Or a summer, or 54 hours while you participate in a Startup Weekend. How does that cost compare if you stay in education for the next x number of years.

If you're fuelled with passion for your new ventures you're not making a transition into the unknown.

If you jump into something new without testing it, it might not be what you expect.

For a serious life decision, you need to have all the facts to hand, try and remove all the risks you can envision while still making the change you want.

If you do want to talk, I'm my username on gmail.
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if you read the actual text it ends with

the one person who got the most out of us was a highly aggressive, very smart, very confident woman

I guess they wanted to point out women, in general, aren't as aggressive in demanding higher salaries. Which whilst being an interesting observation seems kind of a non issue, there is no discrimination here.
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It strikes me funny how AMD couldn't compete in a market with Intel and maybe Via, but somehow they think they can compete in a market with 3+ strong competitors.

This feels like throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
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So why can't his friends father spend a couple minutes on the web to find a solution himself? Look, I know about computers, but I don't use Outlook or Android (which seems to be Arment's situation) so rather that wasting a couple of hours of both our lives, I'd tell the truth and say "I don't know about $SOFTWARE. Have you Googled it?" This does lead to another issue; most people don't know how to search. I have found that a quick Google tutorial is far more fruitful than a couple of hours spent trying to understand the individual workflow requirements and offer a fix around that; often having to use products and solutions that I know nothing about because that is what they use. "Give a man a net to fish with and he can feed himself." no pun intended.
I think this goes beyond just salary negotiations.

My wife typically comes to me when she has "business politics questions" (despite that she's been working longer and more successfully than me.)

Most of things we talk about involve how to get something (usually work or money) from a client without seeming like they're bothering them.

I'm definitely in the "just matter-of-factly send them an email." She's more in the "I don't want them to get irritated by me contacting them" camp.

This isn't universal though. I've had two experiences where it's been reversed. One male I recently hired accepted a position when he knew money would be a problem and didn't bring it up even though it's a bit of a hardship for him right now. A female I'm in discussions to hire has told me flat out what her salary requirements are. I actually appreciate this kind of discussion.
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if exactly one of the children is born on Tuesday, would't the probability of having a son be 5/13 and not 13/27.
For a randomly selected family with two children, there are four possible boy/girl combinations:
B B,
B G,
G B,
G G

In the first case we are told that the older child is a boy. This leaves only two cases:
B B,
B G
Therefore, there is a 50% chance the second child is a boy.

In the second case, we are told only that [at least] one child is a boy. This leaves three possibilities:
B B,
B G,
G B
Therefore, the probability that both children are boys is 1/3.

Enumerating possible states of the world like this is the fundamental insight you need to have to be able to understand these types of problems - but it does take a while to get used to!
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I think that you grossly overestimate both journalism and government, where it regards their respective ethics.

Mainstream journalists, the ones most likely to have access to government officials and processes, are also the ones most co-opted by that system. It is all about access, and the ones who rock the boat too much risk losing it.

As for government, there is a reason why surveillance has always featured prominently in dystopian novels: it is understood by those who have studied the way governments work that they will almost always abuse their power. The power to put a population under surveillance is a kind of control, proportional to the amount it is being done; people understand that when a government is watching them, it is also monitoring potential dissidents and related opinions, organizing, etc.

In short, I'm surprised that anyone would be so willing to trust any government with complete and unhindered powers of surveillance. I wouldn't trust a single non-government entity with that, as it happens.
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I couldn't help myself from drawing subtile comparison with 1984. And I loved it.
Since the constraint simply says that at least one child is a boy, we don't need to distinguish between two types of BB.

This is a curious misconception, by the way. The typical failure mode I see on these questions is people having difficulty accepting BG and GB as different possibilities.
This phenomenon was studied in a book called Women Don't Ask.

http://www.womendontask.com/

'When Linda Babcock asked why so many male graduate students were teaching their own courses and most female students were assigned as assistants, her dean said: "More men ask. The women just don't ask."'

Incidentally, for a while, the authors would give a free copy of this book to women who would ask for one.
Other than a nicer DOM API (which libraries provide in JavaScript), real ints and less type coercion, I still find Dart inferior to JavaScript+CoffeeScript.

Are there really that many people out there that like Java the language (as opposed to the JVM)?
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Absolutely not at all.
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But you are assuming that each of those three possibilities has equal probability; can you explain the rationale for that? (it is clear why BB, BG, GB, and GG have equal probability in the unrestricted case, but less clear why BB, BG, and GB have equal probability in this restricted case)

Besides, this is just a rephrasing of the original article's argument, and doesn't counter mine at all. I am open to the possibility that there is a flaw in my argument, but where is it?
jwz and Arrington are talking about engineers in Silicon Valley. Those guys are relatively well off and have a lot of opportunities. The point is that they shouldn't be fooled into working hard for no extra gain compared to their other opportunities.
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Why the #eee on #fff color scheme? It took me a long time to realize that the white blur in the scroll area was changing, and that if I highlighted it it looked like an image.

Turn up the contrast so we can see it!
Absolutely never solely because of this. Intel makes ARM CPUs. It's a very important player in the ARM market.
If we are determined to look at order of birth (ie. have a BG and GB) then we should consider all cases by order of birth, so where 'B' represents the boy we know and 'b' or 'g' represents a child we dont, and the first character represents the first child, and the second the second childe - we have:

Bb, bB, Bg, gB

50%.
The ambiguity isn't in the phrasing of the father, we understand what he says about his family, it
is in the probability universe that surrounds his statement. The scenario doesn't give one; we don't have a model for the probability of people saying anything at all unprompted. We have a simplified model for the probability distribution of genders, and one for how prompts and replies modify an already known probability model, but here there is nothing to anchor any reasoning of this kind.
As the currently top voted comment does not get it, I try to intuitively explain the paradox.

No, it is not ambiguity of language. It says formally:

I have two children. There exists a child of mine who is (boy and born on tuesday).

And yes, the probability of the other child being a boy is 13/27.

To understand this, try a more extreme case:

When a child is born we generate a random number: rnd(1billion)

Now the man says:

'I have two children. There exists one of them which is boy with generated id=456765234'

As we can see, the probability of the other child being a boy approaches 1/2 as we increase the bound of our random number!

Why is this intuitively?

Because by using a very specific id we are closer and closer to specifying one of the boys, as the probability of the id not being unique decreases. We are closer and closer to saying this:

'Randomly pick one of my children. He is a boy. What is the probability of the other being a boy?'

Yes, that would be 1/2.

Edit.:
Seriously downvoting this??? For most commenters the correct result was not intuitive. (It was not intuitive for me at first also). I tried to make this intuitive to them. (a bit deeper than usual paradxes though) Or do you still think the 13/27 result is not correct? In that case you are fighting mathematical truth with the downvote button.

Edit: Thanks, corrected probability from 2 to 1/2