skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
The survey [0], fielded in late 2019 (before GPT-3, Chinchilla, Flamingo, PaLM, Codex, Dall-E, Minerva etc.), elicited forecasts for near-term AI development milestones and high- or human-level machine intelligence, defined as when machines are able to accomplish every or almost every task humans are able to do currently. They sample 296 researchers who presented at two important AI/ML conferences ICML and NeurIPS. Results from their 2019 survey show that, in aggregate, AI/ML researchers surveyed placed a 50% likelihood of human-level machine intelligence being achieved by 2060. The results show researchers newly contacted in 2019 expressed similar beliefs about the progress of advanced AI as respondents in the Grace et al. (2018) survey.

[0] https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.04132
Any chance it could be MTU related? Sounds like the issue is only popping up when attempting to use full packets.
PCIe Gen 5 drives look poised for wide availability next year and NVIDIA has been demoing CX7 [1] which is also PCIe Gen 5. Intel already has some Gen 5 chips and AMD looks like they will follow soon [2]. Surely there will be other bumps, but I bet they pull it off in way less than 4 years.

1. https://www.servethehome.com/nvidia-connectx-7-shown-at-isc-...

2. https://wccftech.com/amd-epyc-7004-genoa-32-zen-4-core-cpu-s...
Block ‘Slow Walking’ Cash App Probe, Consumer Watchdog Says
I sure hope this sentiment is not widely shared. Its debatable if its possible to safely contain AGI by itself. With self righteous people that think they are in the right its just hopeless. Isn't the road to hell paved with good intentions?.
Academics rarely understand industry, it's just not what they're typically interested in. I got taught a lot of computer science theory in college, but at no point was I taught how commercial build systems work (unless you count make), and forget anything regarding scalability or manufacturing. Was actually quite frustrating for me when senior year rolled around and I still didn't fully understand how any of the theory I'd been shoving into my brain was actually used to create, say, a car or aircraft or even a calculator. At best I got a cursory series of lectures in scrum and assignments that required the use of Eclipse, and that was it. Even in the hardware-oriented EE side of the curriculum it was just working with basic prototype boards, nothing about the business side or mass production. It's not that my education was useless (far from it) but I wasn't taught how to "build" anything beyond toy projects until my first job.

Granted, the people who had the knowledge to teach said methods were probably too busy making comparative bank in private industry, or perhaps were teaching business courses. Most academics are researchers, and researchers tend to be explorers, not builders.
Currently the life of leaders gets better the more people they can control, since it creates a larger tax base. That means leaders tries to encourage population increase, they want more immigration, encourages people to multiply and sees population reduction as harmful.

With AGI that is no longer true, they can just replace most people with computers and automated combat drones while they keep a small number of personal servants to look after them. Currently most jobs either is there to support other humans or can be replaced by a computer, remove the need for humans and all of those jobs just disappear and leaders no longer care about having lots of people around.
> Machines as smart and capable of thought as we are and eventually smarter.

This is perhaps an end goal of AGI, but not a definition of AGI. A relatively dumb AGI is how it will start, but it will still be an AGI.
Honestly, I can't tell if this is sarcasm or not.
Android X86 can be run natively and it can be installed in the same ext4 partition as Linux by using another competely different directory.
Artificial General Intelligence != sentient being
If you live unhealthy, you gonna have bad time!
not sure why people are getting bent out of shape, $20 million is a modest raise, and he strikes me as the type to spend it wisely
It's $6 for a single scoop plus $2 for a waffle cone at Salt & Straw, and I wouldn't have it any other way.
This is the difference between genetics and molecular biology. In most cases, genetics treats gene function as an abstraction while molecular biology seeks the underlying mechanistic process by which genes and their products function (this is an oversimplification).

There is a long history of discovering genes associated with diseases and then determining the molecular etiology/mechanism of the disease. In the case of autism we often see gene associations which seem fairly obvious- for example genes that encode for the proteins that make neural pathways- but sometimes also other genes which woudln't seem related at all or are more "general" and would affect people in many ways- a motor protein that carries things from one part of the cell to another- can be associated but it's challenging to build a true causal model.

From having worked in this field some time, the relationship between a human genotype and their body-level disease phenotype is an extraordinarily complex one, with huge amounts of nonlinear terms. Pretty much the only reasonable way to deal with this right now is to build deep models and feed them enough data to build rich representations with predictive ability. Embeddings and transformers have recently been shown to be remarkably successful in this area.
Let's make a single iota of progress in the area first before discussing doomsday scenarios. There is no "slavery" because there are no artificial sentient beings. The concept doesn't exist, and as far as we know will never exist, no matter how many if-else branches we write. Heck we don't even know our own brains enough to define intelligence or sentience. The morality and ethics talks can wait another few hundred years.
Look at TLS/SSL. TLS 1.2 was out for years until public vulnerabilities forced deprecation of SSL 3 and TLS 1.0.
Depending on location some sunlight exposure is certainly beneficial at least part of the year. Though that doesn't mean tanning or such activities are not harmful. Comes down to the reality that some times dose really matters.
Blame the GPL for this. The GPL is directly responsible for the livelihood of many/all BSD developers, and i could not be happier about that. Linux is overrated in a lot of ways.
Look up for the usage of global soy/ corn productionand then tell me “cows eats grass humans cannot eat”. The Brazilian rainfores is being burned to plant soy to feed european cows. This system is very inefficien but, who cares! Profits.
Can someone remind me why Merkle trees of Lamport signatures aren’t the solution for postquantum asymmetric signing? Sure the signatures are huge, but they’re secure unless you can trivially invert the hash function.
Yeah that's brutal. The legendary Human Centipede Org Chart. Good luck..
Just had a different primary email on my Github account, when I signed up for DO.
By changing my primary email account on Github, I lost access to DO.
Synucleinopathy in Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis?
Who do you have in mind? In my corner of AI it's pretty uncommon for researchers to even predict "timelines". Predictions have a bad track record in the field and most researchers know it, so don't like to go on record making them. The only prominent AI researcher I know who has made a bunch of predictions with dates is Rodney Brooks [1], and he puts even dog-level general intelligence as "not earlier than 2048". I imagine folks like LeCun or Hinton are more optimistic, but as far as I'm aware they haven't wanted to make specific predictions with dates like that (and LeCun doesn't like the term "AGI", because he doesn't think "general intelligence" exists even for humans).

[1] https://rodneybrooks.com/my-dated-predictions/
I tend to think Carmack is right in that the “seed” code that generates an AGI will be relatively small, but I think the “operating” code will be enormous.
I believe AGI is the threshold where generalized artificial comprehension is achieved and the model can understand any task. Once the understanding part is composable the building portion is following the understanding. I'm using understanding rather than model because our models we make today are not these kinds of comprehensions, understandings are more intelligent.
Another interpretation is that you're taking the chance that this actually results in AGI more seriously than the people who build or invest companies with the label on it

there's a micro chance of them making AGI happen and a 99% chance of the outcome being some monetizable web service
Yes, qualified advice is hard to find. Probably because the primary clientele for such advice is not price sensitive and because providing good advice requires researching exact circumstances because the exact details matter when it comes to avoiding financial and legal pitfalls.

And that means that internet advice is not likely to be based upon experience that began with qualified legal advice since such advice was provided based on exact details.

So there’s a non-trivial probability that “it works on my machine” advice is just a method that hasn’t been caught running afoul of legal and tax laws yet.

Or given by people who are willing to run that risk.

Anyone who has their ducks in a column has only done so by acting in accord with them exact circumstances.
I suppose if anyone could raise VC money for a retirement project it would be Carmack...
Threads have been a C language feature for over a decade now, starting with C11. (although C11's threads had arguable posix comatibility issues until fixed in c17).
> No unit in the metric system maps simply to anything a human can immediately relate to

This "intuition" is not intrinsic, though, but is because of familiarity. If you've done track sports (or watched athletics), you can visualize 100m. If you've watched NFL, you can "intuit" 10 yards empirically - not because it equals to 30 feet and you look at your own feet. The same goes for 21"/27"/42"/60" (TVs).

The only scenario I can imagine where of human-relatibility would matter is when the unit is unknown to the listener, e.g. if someone introduced me to a carlength (or the notoriously unintuitive 'length of a football field'); however, this is now completely unnecessary with modern education and standardization

The origin of the measure is just lore, and counts for nothing; which is why being immersed into a system which you were previously unfamiliar with (metric or imperial) bestows the same "intuitiveness" - as anyone who joined the US army can tell you.

The argument that imperial units are somehow relatable as they are similar to naturally occurring things is a textbook appeal to nature.
I'm very optimistic for near-term AGI (10 years or less). Even just a few years ago most in the field would have said that it's an "unknown unknown", we didn't have the theory or the models, there was no path forward and so it was impossible to predict.

Now we have a fairly concrete idea of what a potential AGI might look like - an RL agent that uses a large transformer.

The issue is that unlike supervised training you need to simulate the environment along with the agent, so this requires a magnitude more compute compared to LLMs. That's why I think it will still be large corporate labs that will make the most progress in this field.
X2Go/FreeNX since forever.
By that logic an alien race that captures and breeds humans in captivity to perform certain tasks would not be engaging in slavery because we 'are bred to love doing these tasks'.

The right question to ask is 'would I like to have this done to me' and if the answer is 'no' then you probably shouldn't be doing it to some other creature.
> Which side of an imaginary line someone is born on shouldn't determine whether they are doomed to poverty and oppression.

Getting rid of the line turns both sides into places of poverty and oppression.

Make the bad side of the line better.
Digger – Back and Digitally Remastered (1998)
I think it's quite obvious that instead of 8 machines you then only need 1. This results in reduced costs for machinery, storage (as each machine would have its own storage) and probably power consumption too. Also, same room of servers can throughput 8 times more content.

Edit: Whoops, apparently this tab has been open for four hours and of course someone already had responded to you, lol.
If you want to look into it more, that situation is usually called a post-scarcity economy[1]. It's talked about and depicted in a few fictionalized places, including Star Trek.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy
you need to authenticate your new email address first before you delete the old one.

https://docs.digitalocean.com/products/accounts/settings/
Still crazy.. I want to use my keyboard. My shortcuts, and do proper bulk operations. It's just pure laziness from their devs.
They don't know, they don't care..
So is Meta starting to quietly wind down their focus on VR? Carmack mentions he'll stay as a consultant spending 20% of time there on it.
Tl;dr: Conrad wrote books similar or related to experiences he actually had, and some aspects of those things are similar to experiences you can have today.

Conrad wrote a story about a boat trip in the Congo during which he witnessed violence. Jasanoff also went on a boat trip on the same river, and although not witnessing the sort of violence Conrad wrote about, felt feels she gained insight into the "look and feel" of the landscape Conrad wrote about.

Okay, not sure I see the point of any of this, except to say that Conrad wrote about things similar to his life experiences. But I think that's table-stakes knowledge for anybody reading one of Conrad's books.
Here's hoping that the company logo will feature Commander Keen's helmet or blaster.
Thank. Yes, it feels very satisfying having it finally be deployed and operational, like a big sigh of relieve after holding in a small bit of breath (one alveoli's worth) for 20 years. ScriptEase started when I began working alone on a project, instead of with big teams, and needed a faster program paradigm so that I alone could be as productive as a big team. It turned out to be generic enough that it was useful for a lot of types of projects, not just mine (which was to be an infinite backup product) or cameras (nothing on my mind at the time at all) but pretty much any software who's core libraries needed easy modification--also turned out to be useful in web browers, although I didn't know it at the time, because I didn't know there was such as thing yet as browsers or the web. The development stopped because by early 2000 times were really changing--people were getting less into paying for software libraries and more into getting free stuff; but it was 9/11 that really killed it, because our customers stopped paying us (because their customers stopped paying them, and so on). The final nail in the coffin was a big snowstorm on the day someone offered to acquihire us and move us to California where we'd never have to shovel snow again.

Finally, ScriptEase itself would have too many legal troubles being used by anyone, but I do believe just about everything needs a script language so it can be altered and customized and personalized and applied to infinite new purposes (and not a new one invented every week, just something boring and stable).

If I were to revive something from ScriptEase, I've often thought it should be the ideas behind the test environment around it. Where everything that can go wrong will go wrong and it must still survive.
He also said he's never felt in danger of experiencing burnout. The guy's emotional wiring is a total departure from that of most people. Almost alien.
Not only that, but bazillions of coins are dead. My 4 bitcoins that were lost to a hard drive failure a decade ago are gone, and “reanimating” them wouldn’t even be theft.
Inaction is absolutely complicity. You're (personally) complicit in a lot of things, probably including treatment of refugees from ISIS in Turkey, the famine in Afghanistan, drug cartel in Mexico, and the Yemeni Civil War. I don't know where you live, but I could name dozens of local issues people are complicit in as well.

There are enough issues in the world that everyone's complicit on most of them.

Convince me why others being complicit in issues you care about is any worse than you being complicit in the issues I listed above.

Or consider that others might prioritize issues differently than you do.
The year 2300 is definitely in this millennium.
> The "6 or so" breakthroughs sounds about right to me.

What’s your logic?
Or his if you know it?
In the absence of a global police state or a permanent halt to semiconductor development, this is happening.

Even in the absence of all other arguments, it's better that we figure it out early, as the potential to just blast it into orbit by the way of insanely overprovisioned hardware will be smaller. That would be a much more dangerous proposition.

I still think that figuring out the safety question seems very muddy; how do we ensure this tech doesn't run away and become a competing species. That's an existential threat which must be solved. My judgement on that question is that we can't expect making progress there without having a better idea of exactly what kind of machine we will build, so also an argument for trying to figure this out sooner rather than later.

Less confident about the last point, though.
Sorry that I'm not seeing this until 8 days later, haha.

What I will say is that this particular question is a sort of meta-question. So the underlying question is "Why is there something rather than nothing?" and the basic standpoints are:

- Theistic: This question is meaningful/answerable, but the answer strains our comprehension ability. Creatio ex nihilo, somehow the somethingness comes out of the nothingness, and our ability to understand is not altogether there.

- Scientistic: This question is meaningful and has an ordinarily-intelligible answer, "because of Something with a Capital S."

- Atheistic: This question is not meaningful and therefore cannot have an answer.

- Agnostic: I don't have enough data yet to judge whether this question would be meaningful, or whether it at least in principle has an answer.

Because we're not asking "what is the answer to 'why is there something rather than nothing?'" but rather asking "is that a meaningful/answerable question in the first place?" the agnostic is in an unusually difficult position that does not obtain in other sorts of agnosticism. The problem is that it does not seem prima facie like this is a more unusual question than any of the other ones we ask on a normal basis. It doesn't have any complicated words, it does not appear to be self-referential, no word is being used twice (and therefore not in a way that might set it into two different contexts so that it has two different meanings)... the only thing that is different is that this question has somewhat of a larger scope than we are conventionally used to.

So normally the agnostic is free of the "burden of proof" and can "cop out" but in this case the agnostic finds themselves needing to justify a bit why this particular usage of those words might be problematic for deciding whether the question is likely to be answerable.
Here's the thing: If I am in a country that harbours these abominations of nature and I see a suspicious spider near or even inside my home, I'll kill it. I'll drop the whole weight of the "sapiens" part of my species on that toxic creature. No quarter given or expected.

There's something very deep inside me that tells me that beings with way more than the usual amount of legs are to be feared and I trust that part of me.
i recall seeing something similar a long time ago, with a very similar name, and found it via HN search: sineridergame.com — https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8615416

and it looks like you own the domain and route it to sinerider.com now? Are you affiliated with the creater from 8 years ago or did they abandon it? The game seems somewhat distinct though obviously similar. Did you ever interact with that game?
It seems unlikely? At least, I hope it's the ex-DEC,AMD,SiByte,PASemi,Apple,Tesla,Intel Jim Keller.
Tesla's virtual power plant had its first event helping the grid
Cool. On Windows, some Linux distros and Android, there isn't a builtin way to directly compress an image though.
He stepped down from a full time role years ago. I believe the 20% is no change.
Apple itself uses electron for their desktop Music app.

Really? Do you have a source for this?
I think its safe to say that all sentient beings inherently want to do whatever they please.

So youre talking about manufacturing desire.

So it follows that you yourself are okay having your own desires manufactured by external systems devised by other sentient beings.

Do unto others...
What, in your view, is the difference?
The average user is not aware that the walled garden is still tracking them, especially with Apple's charm offensive about how it is more privacy-respecting (probably since their refusal to submit to FBI mandate to unlock the iPhone of the 2015 San Bernardino shooter). Click-through EULA is click-through EULA, no matter what company generates it. That Apple tracking is better than that of other, more egregious offenders, is damnation by faint praise.
Curious what this does different than ImageMagick. I can't view the website as for the antivirus thinks its a high risk site.
> My super cynical view is that the whole genre of "quantum safe" cryptography is being promoted to try and encourage adoption of weak encryption

Not a cryptographer, but surely if you're worried about this then you could first encrypt your data using classical algorithms and then encrypt the output of that via the PQC algorithms, to produce a ciphertext that is at least no less safe than the classical encryption alone.
I don’t understand why you would want AGI. Even ignoring Terminator-esque worst case scenarios, AGI means humans are no longer the smartest entities on the planet.

The idea that we can control something like that is laughable.
Source for Apple Music being an electron app?
There is a Apple Music related preference pane that is a webview but that is not the same thing.
I was thinking DNS and/or IPv6.

For me, it's always DNS until proven otherwise. But the difference of some sites loading, but others not makes me suspect there's a split somewhere and IPv4 vs 6 seems as likely as anything.
Fully driverless 90min Waymo trip in SF
I think this is an interesting idea but I also think it will never gain adoption.

Move constructors/Move assignment should be noexcept by default. It's not entirely clear to me what a program ought to do if a move constructor/assignment operator throws an exception. In a general sense you cannot 'trust' the old object to not have been modified.

"All basic types (excluding pointers and references) are const by default" -- why the exception?

The rule of zero should be acceptable in addition to the rule of 6. Also, the rule of 5 is acceptable in many circumstances; lots of classes should not have default constructors. I agree that having 1,2,3, or 4 are bad, but 0,5,6 are acceptable.
We will have something that we ourselves define to be AGI, sure, but then it's easy to hit any goal that way. Is that machine really intelligent? What does that word even mean? Can it think for itself? Is it sentient?

Similar to AI, AGI is going to be a new industry buzzword that you can throw at anything and mean nothing.
Adjusted Gross Income, because Artificial General Intelligence from a Corporation is nightmare fuel.