2008 had an oil cost surge and some foods were becoming usually expensive but not all. Oil had peaked in cost of about $140 per barrel or just shy of it and financial reporters and big banks were saying things like "its going to $300" sometime early that year. Just like then, financial commentators were saying the oil costs were going to never stop going up probably reaching $300 a barrel. It was about of month to find that the opposite was true just like the last time.

Oil was just another asset to play with and I played with it, got bored and sold it. I made a little money in royalties and didn't take a big loss on it.

Buying something and flipping it with credit has inflationary effects because whenever money is borrowed from a financial institution it has to create that money in checking accounts. There is no vault that has loads of hundred dollar bills. It is simply created on a ledger, but that's a whole other story. Anyway the money gets spent by the general public and more often because what they buy they flip for a profit to the greater fools. Billionaires are famous for not wanting to spend their money, so that their high score in the money game is better than if they did. Only if spending money to make even more is their thing. But if houses are bought and sold more often, with the intention of doing so at a profit the little guy has a ton of hot cash and that makes milk, gas, rent, bread, and a ton of things much more expensive. That was the case then and now. Now people aren't just flipping houses, they flip used cars and sell them at a price higher than the MSRP on a new one (the MSM said this).

People are much more likely to fall for financial scams now. Look at all the people that thought it was possible to earn 17% indefinitely on a savings account. Why? Because crypto magic and my cousin is doing it. But actually, that has never happened (savings account with that kind of return). If I knew about it, I would have warned people. I only found out about it after it blew up. I expect to hear and see more of this "if I knew I'd had said something" blow ups in the future but not with my peers because I don't think any of them would fall for it.

I've tried to think of a time that is similar to this in terms of economic issues and I can't really find anything close. The disruption of global trade and supply chain issues are more akin to a siege economy (look to Cuba for how this works out), than just a downturn.

Recessions are normal. Growing up I saw a recession in the 80s that was pretty bad, there was unemployment, and high costs. 91 was a kind of slump.

Greed and magic thinking with lucky charms like bitcoin making people millionaires overnight is probably going to revert below the mean very soon.

Rent is soaring, car prices cannot keep going up or people will not be able to work at their job any more because cars do wear out and need replaced. So that is why we are in the eye of the storm. Other parts of the world are in the storm's worst part. Some are coming into it slowly. Sooner or later something is going to break that will be unfixable. There was no talk of nuclear war in 2008 with anyone. No one was telling New Yorkers to tune into internet news in case of a nuke detonating there.

There was no new morality, accept it or else mentality.

My dad told it to me like this. When your neighbor is out of work it is a recession. When you are out of work it is a depression.

I start a new job on Monday.