skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Bayesian methods have a lot going for them, but you need some way of checking whether the methods are giving sensible answers. Andrew Gelman (well know professor, blogger, and author of Bayesian Data Analysis) relies on simulation, which is a pretty Frequentist thing to do!

Bayesian and Frequentist methods are not nearly as at odds as posts like this suggest. Frequentism is mostly about how methods should be evaluated. Bayesianism is mostly about how to incorporate different sources of information. You can assess the Frequentist properties of Bayesian methods!

Larry Wasserman wrote a great post about this topic here: https://normaldeviate.wordpress.com/2012/11/17/what-is-bayes...
That's the smart way to go, decomposing leaves fertilize
I completely agree for full time professors/teachers.

But given the scenario is being the TA (ie a PhD student tasked with supporting a professor's class, often 1 of many TAs) then I don't think we can expect him to be way ahead of every topic in the class.
>He is not saying it came out of a US lab. He is saying it came from US lab biotechnology. I.e. from US tech and funding for gain-of-function research; The suspected culprit was banned in the US in 2014:

Ah, thanks for the correction.

>It seems absurd to say it came from a US lab when the original outbreak was in Wuhan. The virology lab there was supported with US funding and research.

I accepted that this is conspiracy theory level stuff... but... if one were to make a covert biological weapons attack on another country, what better place is there to plant it but right next to their own biotech labs? This doesn't survive contact with Occam's Razor at all, but I don't know, might be a plot point in a mediocre thriller.
Three trends shaping the modern data stack
High energy prices are optional. US, UK, and European countries could set a limit on the price of oil. Instead, they are opting to allow companies within their borders to rake in record profits -- at the same time that they're allowing high oil prices to subsidize Russia's war efforts. This can be changed through regulation -- but I seriously doubt it will happen. It would take real political will that simply isn't there.

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/may/30/could-a-car...

[2] https://voxeu.org/article/eu-gas-purchasing-cartel-framework
> Can you really forecast inflation? They failed to do so before the whole Russia shit-storm, and they're trying to yet again.

The primary reason they failed was BECAUSE of the Russia shit storm. Predictions about anything are vulnerable to change from new information. That doesn't mean making predictions is a bad idea. It's still the best model you've got.
A lot of people profit off of chaos and external threats. Maybe we should be paying more attention to such motivations.
It's baffling how the majority of commenters think this is about fighting discrimination.
> This is not true at all. There are web forums that are not "web-scale" and don't spend all day fighting bot spam. The solution is real simple: it costs 10 bux to register an account, if you're a nuisance your account is banned and you pay 10bux to get back on.

That doesn't work at all unless your service is already pretty popular. Who would pay $5 to access a new, empty forum?

You mention "you need to bootstrap a community first," but that's basically an admission that this solution doesn't solve the problem at all, because you have to solve the problem in some other way to use this solution. 10bux was a solution limited to a very specific time.
Because the statement was framed as a purely american problem
Being a mercenary in every little thing. “What’s in it for me?”
I think that's exactly what the likes of Nikola and Tesla are doing with their trucks.

From what I understand, battery electric trucks exist in pretty much every size and weight class right now ranging from huge dump trucks used in the mining industry, long range trucks to more medium and small size trucks. Hydrogen may have a role to play with some of these.

But the decision as to use hydrogen is more a cost consideration than it is a functional necessity. The reason there are not a whole lot on the road is that cost wise, it doesn't make that much sense to go for hydrogen. Hydrogen is expensive to source, difficult to handle, there hardly any fueling stations, you need complex systems on the truck, heavy tanks, etc. It adds up to a lot of cost and limitations for not a whole lot of benefit.

As for this particular truck, it does not look like it's particularly impressive in terms of torque, range, etc. 400km range is well below the 500 mile range that Tesla is advertising for the Tesla Semi (with a ~500kwh battery). That's 2x the range (and a bit). The normal range also has a better range with about half the battery.

What is interesting is that hydrogen fueling takes a bit of time. It's not like fueling a truck with diesel. You need to squeeze a lot of hydrogen through some heavy duty pipes at very high pressure. That takes time.

People always complain that charging batteries takes so long. Well, 20 minutes of fueling time for hydrogen is also substantial and at the lower end of the scale of what a lot of EVs can do in terms of 0 to 80% charging already. There are already chargers being designed that will charge trucks at over 1MW. So, if you have 500kwh of battery, you might get it charged in about 30-40 minutes. That's a lot of range depending at what rate you are cruise (typically nowhere near the maximum capacity of the motor).

Another interesting aspect is that these hydrogen trucks have a 72 kwh battery. That's because fuel cells are not that easy to throttle up and down. So, instead it's basically a battery electrical truck with a smallish battery and a complicated hydrogen generator. Swap it out for a diesel or petrol engine and you have a hybrid truck. Swap that out for a proper battery and you have a proper battery electric truck. Same engine, just a larger battery and lot less complexity.

The reason the battery is relatively large is because they are powering a 350kw motor with a 160kw hydrogen setup. It would not be able to operate that engine at its full power. And when you are driving up a mountain, you need a bit of a buffer since you are depleting faster than you can charge it so it needs to be able to sustain high power levels for a bit.
Just because you have a full JIRA queue doesn't mean any of the work is worth doing. Management tends to want to build empires, and that can mean taking on projects that don't contribute at all to the company's bottom line, or are so high-effort/low-impact that any sane company wouldn't even bother with the project. See also Google's new chat app every year, or how companies decide to rewrite their UI every six months, refactoring legacy code that works just fine, chasing the latest framework du jour, etc etc etc. Teams tend to take on work on a whim, and there's rarely anyone at the top keeping tabs on which of the projects are actually useful vs just spinning your wheels.
Nonsense. Frequentist statistics is (relatively) easy to understand. If people can't be trusted with it, they certainly can't be trusted with Bayesian statistics.

This is more of an argument not to teach anyone statistics at all, other than some unspecified elite that the author feels qualified to learn it.

By the way, the author has some interesting obsessions:

https://twitter.com/FamedCelebrity/status/155513494784911360...

https://twitter.com/FamedCelebrity/status/155516247586318336...

https://twitter.com/JohnZmirak/status/1554969385860796420?s=... (retweet)
> landscapers would be paid more

Landscapers with leafblowers would outcompete landscapers with rakes.
Alongside simple banking, this is a service that should be offered, for free, by the US Post Office.
I’m by no means an expert but could raising rates increase the strength of the pound, which could have a deflationary affect on import prices, including energy?
Who exactly is the target audience of this?

Shell accounts were useful and thus popular 20-30 years ago when UNIX systems were still something relatively exotic. It was a cheap way for the average home user to get limited access to a computing resource that was otherwise completely inaccessible to them. (Indeed, my first exposure to UNIX was via an SDF shell account, after trying in vain for hours to get RedHat to work on my parents’ old 486.)

Today, Linux installs easily on pretty much any modern consumer hardware. VPSs are a dime a dozen (and much more powerful and cheaper than what SDF offers). Is SDF’s user base purely driven by nostalgia (they still offer dialup access for $7-10/month [0]), or does it provide some useful service not available anywhere else that I’m missing?

[0] https://sdf.org/?join
True. My words were uncareful and flippant response to outlawing one thing with the proposal to outlaw another.

My end goal and what were said are close but not directly in line. I don’t really care if a few crazies manicure their lawn, but it shouldn’t be a forced standard. Everyone doing it is terrible for the environment.
a) Rakes

b) Double digit minimum wage

c) Being able to afford a landscaper.

Pick two.

I own a rake and use it my damn self, which shouldn't matter but probably does.
While I agree, the most important benefits of bayesian methods - in my opinion - are forcing people to consider (1) uncertainty and (2) effect sizes. These two things alone are a fundamental difference and a major step forward.
Sell it as a franchise model. Every neighborhood gets its own email server and backup, a webmail frontend, a user portal with billing and a service contract. Your franchise owners get Yubikeys or similar to authenticate themselves, and the right to fiddle with authentication for their users alone. They can set their own local prices, and provide as much or as little tech support as they want. Charge a small fee to migrate a user from one neighborhood to another. Offer neighborhood mailing lists. For a small fee, let people moderate their own lists, which don't have to be neighborhood-specific, but do have to be confirmed-opt-in; no bulk upload of subscriber addresses.
Not been my experience at all.

I have seen folks get in over their heads though. Like -- "OMG I've somehow broken boot for ZFS on root and I don't know how to fix!!" or "I'm using a custom kernel and OMG things don't work!!"

Canonical has even been complicit. When you download an HWE kernel, you don't also download a newer/matching versions of the tools. This should pretty clearly be considered a bug[0], and fixed but Canonical perhaps doesn't have the bandwidth?

I just can't lay any of these problems at the feet of ZFS though. Right now I trust ZFS a hell of a lot more than I trust Linux to Do The Right Thing. When ZFS seems broken (though I have little experience with native encryption so this may not apply to it), I am far more likely to think the issue is Linux, my distribution, or me, than any problem with ZFS.

I'm a pretty serious ZFS lover though.[1]

[0]: https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/+source/zfs-linux/+bug/193...
[1]: https://github.com/kimono-koans/httm
Is this targeted at companies? Sounds right up my alley but the pricing is a bit steep.
Our brand new tool: Radeon Raytracing Analyzer 1.0
>"Fix your life in 3 weeks, only takes 30 minutes a day"

More like "This ONE Tip Will Change Your Life!"
Plenty of people lose all forms of identification at some point in their lives

Yep. I lost my wallet once and my birth certificate was in another state at my parents at the time (and I had no passport). It took less than a day of leg work to get a new state driver's license and bank cards made. Frighteningly little security in that whole process. Had to go to the post office and get a voter registration card, take that and a bank statement/water bill to the DMV, and boom, I had a new ID. Did the clerk at the DMV compare me to my photo? If she did she never said so.
Ask HN: What are the reasons for your startup failure?
Seven years ago, I started a blog called The Pragmatic Engineer. For three months, I wrote a post every two-three weeks. But no one really read them. So I took a short break, which break turned into a month, then another, another… and I did not have motivation to write. Barely anyone read it, after all.

A few months after starting the blog, I saw a small traffic spike - maybe 30 visitors - from this site called Hacker News after a submission [1]. I never heard about HN before but it looked interesting so I started to visit it, and eventually registered to upvote stories I like.

Then, another few months later - when I had not published anything for 3-4 months - as I was checking out HN, I could not believe what I saw: a months-old post of mine was on the front page titled “Move Fast Without Breaking Things”. Traffic was so high, my site could barely keep up on shared hosting with MediaTemple, my blog running Wordpress.

There were 50+ comments discussing my post, versus the 2 that were on the blog itself (it had a commenting system). The comments were more insightful than I’ve ever seen for any of my blog posts. This was the HN post [2].

Now, this post did not “make me money”. But it WAS a turning point where I got validation that strangers on the internet find what I wrote interesting. And it gave me a motivation to write when no one read it, knowing that just because people are not interested in what I wrote today, people might find it interesting months or years later.

I kept writing my blog for years. Eventually, this blog served as the basis of The Pragmatic Engineer Newsletter which I launched a year ago, and which is my new fulltime job and one of the most popular technology newsletters with over 120,000 people reading it. More than enough people chose to pay for it to make this a a viable fulltime career on the long run.

Thank you, Hacker News, for those first two submissions, all the comments, and the motivation it gave to keep writing. It was a turning point. I still remember how I could barely believe in March 2016 that so many people I never met can be interested in reading thoughts I put in writing.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10692734

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11374221
linuxserver.io uses s6-overlay for all their images, which are very popular in the self-hosting community.
In terms of the market share, at least, according to Wikipedia [1],

Less than 1% is confirmed to be UNIX or Unix-like and non-Linux. The top operating systems in order are: 0.3% BSD (97.8% of which is FreeBSD),[251] <0.1% Darwin,[252] <0.1% HP-UX,[253] <0.1% Solaris,[254] and <0.1% Minix.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_syste...
5.19 Kernel Development Statistics
When I was a college student I loved reading older books from the library because, for a time, whoever donated the book could write an inscription on the front matter. The inscriptions varied. Some were about the book. Some were about personal experiences at my college. Sometimes you’d even find doodles or poems.
People reuse passwords and having your password appear in a list of known passwords, even without being associated to your email, is reason enough to change it.
Imagine if the govts of the world had mandate to transparently and efficiently find and squash issues before a complaint, like we wouldn't freak out when we only see strong intervention without the precursing issue.
The high street will exist so long as the the wealthy want it to exist.

That doesn't mean down market knockoffs for the non-wealthy will, and that's most retail.
Inc-Query | Senior Full Stack Engineer | Remote (anywhere) | Full-time | https://inc-query.com

I’m the founder at Inc-Query, a ~70-person, fully remote company that’s building a better survey platform. We are looking for a senior full-stack developer to join our small but growing dev team.

Our stack is TypeScript, Node, React, and Postgres primarily, with a smaller Django/PG codebase too. I daydream about rewriting in Rescript or Koka :)

We have a variety of interesting technologies, including a custom programming language interpreter and type checker, a concurrent editing system, a data streaming service, and more. We value LOC not written more than LOC that are, and we try not to break things.

We have been a fully remote company since 2016, spread across over a dozen countries, and therefore tend to work asynchronously and sustainably. We are *profitable*, growing organically, and we have an extremely talented team.

If this sounds like it would be a good role for you, please email me at hn[at]domain_name and include "survey" somewhere in the email body to defeat the spam filter. Recruiters and agencies will be silently ignored or blocked
Much of the leaf blower usage in my area is just to blow the grass clippings back onto the lawn when they end up in the street/driveway/parking lot/sidewalk/etc. If the mower just had a mulching system which trapped the cut grass under itself, then there'd be no need to blow the cut grass at all, it would already be on the lawn.

It's funny to me watching the lawn crews get out their blowers at the end of every mow to blow the grass clippings. It seems like such a waste of time, and hence money to pay them for that labor. Simply preventing the need for using a leaf blower seems like something someone should solve for these lawn crews.
I use a metal bowl. If you really want to remove the oils, wash with vinegar before use - I don't usually bother, but did when whipping egg whites for a wedding cake.

IIRC, copper stabilizes the egg whites so they stay foamy for a decent time, but they don't always get as stiff as they do in a glass or metal bowl and it is definitely harder to overbeat. To be fair, if you are whipping by hand, you probably are in no danger of this. And for those that don't know, folks usually use something like cream of tartar in eggs to do a similar stabilizing, though you still get stiff foam.
Shit man, who are these people getting so much alone time? I struggle to find 5 minutes to myself these days (34 years old).
If you read enough of those "day in the life" articles in newspapers about the daily routine of famous/successful people, you realise that they are probably complete fabrications. Even if it's not for competition purposes, convincing people that you do mad stuff like get up at 2am for a kale cleanse, followed by three hours of meditation is fun. And on top of that, it adds to the razzle-dazzle and gets people talking about you. That's why Michael Jackson pretended to sleep in an oxygen tent.
Rethinking Authentication UX
> They didn't ban leaf blowers, the banned _gas_ leaf blowers. Electric ones are quieter, inexpensive, and work just as well nowadays.

While noise is an issue with gas blowers, the biggest issue with all kinds of blowers is how much air pollution they cause by putting dust back into the air.
> mCaptcha is basically a rate-limiter.

Hmm, is it a better rate limiter than others? I know that nginx, for example, makes it pretty easy to rate limit based on IP address with the `limit_req` and `limit_req_zone` directives.

In essence, ngix's rate limiter also works by making each request consume a resource, but it makes the resource consumed an IP address (or range) rather than compute resources. It seems intuitive that a malicious actor would have an easier time scaling compute than IP addresses, while a legitimate user will _always_ have an IP address but might be on a machine with 1/100000th the compute resources of the malicious actor.
I wonder if glass micropipette tips are viable
People can see it if they enable show-dead in their settings. They can still reply to people and upvote comments, but the submission itself should not be climbing. If you are seeing it climb after it was flagged that would be a question for Daniel (dang). You could email him and ask.
I like how I basically trashed all US politicians and policies, their whole way of political life and you assumed I'm American. I'm not.

And for the record, the US isn't bombing Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are, with US, British, French and other weapons. Get your war crimes right. Complicity by selling weapons for war crimes, and actually committing war crimes, are not the same thing.
Classic Germany. I love it. Totally rational thing to do.

On the other hand even electric heaters must draw from somewhere, and it's looking like it might be coal.
To me, the main draw is that of a Unix system shared by multiple people. It's a pretty unique experience, much different to "single-user" Unix systems like most of us run today.
I knew somebody who was working in the "sterilization department" of a large hospital. I think he was "cleaning" and re-sterilizing things like clamps and tweezers and whatnot.

Isn't that good practice and everything you can do?
Let me introduce you to Gerd Gigerenzer's paper "The Null Ritual", in which he brilliantly shows that almost nobody understands the rituals of frequentist statistics [1].

"How many students and teachers noticed that all of the statements were wrong? As Figure 1 shows, none of the students did. Every student endorsed one or more of the illusions about the meaning of a p-value. One might think that these students lack the right genes for statistical thinking and are stubbornly resistant to education. A glance at the performance of their teachers, however, indicates that wishful thinking might not be entirely their fault. Ninety percent of the professors and lecturers also had illusions, a proportion almost as high as among their students. Most surprisingly, 80% of the statistics teachers shared illusions with their students."

[1] http://library.mpib-berlin.mpg.de/ft/gg/GG_Null_2004.pdf
I dislike the sound of a wire whisk on a metal bowl. But I've found stainless steel mixing bowls work well too.
why does UK gvt blame energy prices on Russia, when the Uk is close to energy independence

The UK is not energy independent. Although it imports less than 5% of its gas from Russia, it is affected by global gas prices and demand. Most UK homes are heated by gas. The average energy bill was £1,400 a year in October 2021. In April 2022, energy bills rose to around £2,000. It is estimated bills will rise to £3,400 a year from October, then to £3,600 a year from January 2023 [1]. Unless I am mistaken, these are some of the highest energy bills in Europe.

Meanwhile, the currently government has no plan or urgency to tackle the cost-of-living crisis. Instead, we have a navel-gazing Conservative party pre-occupied with who should be Prime Minister. (A choice between two terrible candidates).

[1] Warning winter energy bills to rise by more than expected https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62380728
Some of us have been on lonestar for 30yrs and have made a lot of connections. Also, there's games.
Just giving cash to everyone would be simpler and better, since you could spend it on jumpers rather than fossil fuels if you wanted to, but subsidies for buying fossil fuels are mysteriously popular with governments that don't like subsidies in general.
I think the founder of Freshworks would know the answer. [0] The comment that started it all: [1] from there to IPO [2]

[0] http://blog.freshdesk.com/the-freshdesk-story-how-a-simple-c...

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1358398

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28625195
It's a direct consequence of there being a single price. It generally only applies to commodities.

It usually results in low profits because the cost of production does not vary wildly between vendors. Farmer Joe and Bob have roughly the same costs per bushel of wheat, so farm profits are generally quite low.

Energy windfall profits are the exception, not the rule. Windfall profits are usually only found in non-commodity markets like software.
IME, a big part of the irritation is caused by the irregular throttle inputs by the operator. The continuous revving->idle->revving is what bothers me the most. If they kept the throttle constant, like a lawnmower, it would be easier to ignore and less distracting/obnoxious.