> why you choose only NATO expansion as a cause (and thus pushing the blame on the west)

Firstly we disagree here on the blame being on the west. The blame is not on the west for expanding NATO, the blame is on Putin for choosing to attack yet another sovereign nation for its own national policy goals. Since you also accuse me of "whitewashing an authoritarian ruler's decision" I'll also state explicitly I think Putin is a callous, paranoid relic of the cold war and should be removed from power for this and his many other stains on the world. He should not be in Ukraine, Ukraine is morally rigeous in fighting back, and I expect more countries will join NATO as a result of Putin's actions. The only reason I'm focusing on Russia's rational basis for invading is because we'll be doomed to keep repeating this same dance with Russia until we incapacitate it (I don't really want to die via thermonuclar warhead) or find some other solution grounded in the actual concerns that seem to motivate their behavior.

> Sounds like pushing a narrative of western/NATO blame for a war Putin chose on his terms/his time

I want to see Putin fail miserably and face justice. He is not justified, only paranoid and warped. He will continue to act this way until NATO finds a way to make him stop, which won't be by frowning intensely at him and hitting him with sanctions. Russia's power comes from things like its oil & gas exports, and nationally it wants things like a warm water ports (i.e. one that doesn't freeze 1/3 of the year) which it currents gets by leasing Sevastapol from Ukraine. It furthermore wants these things on its own terms, and does not want a NATO-aligned Ukraine suddenly deciding that it cannot access them. Why do you think Putin was so anxious to specifically annex Crimea?

It's not really a secret btw that NATO wants Ukraine to join [1] (section 69), and Ukraine is of great strategic interest to Russia for the reasons I've outlined in my above comments and many more. Certainly we can at least agree on that, morals of Russia outright imposing its will on Ukraine aside. Obviously it's wrong, but Russia doesn't care if it's wrong.

> But your response is 'NATO' because your reading of the tea leaves indicates it.

Because geography dictates it. Ukraine provides easy and wide passage to Russia and provides a place for NATO (US) to install military equipment, bases, anti-missile systems (yes I know what you're going to say, but yes Putin has bitched incessantly about these [2] despite being nominally "defensive"). Ukraine hosts one of Russia's only viable warm-water ports. Ukraine joining NATO means that Putin can no longer bully smaller states into serving its needs and instead would need to risk a war against an alliance of nuclear powers if it wants to achieve policy by other means. NATO controlling Ukraine means that NATO has actual leverage over Russia beyond sanctions, which Russia does not want.

I think allowing Ukraine to join NATO and deploying a peacekeeping force would either force Putin to back down or escalate us to a nuclear war if Putin decides Ukraine is strategically worth a first strike. No idea honestly, maybe it stays conventional and then Russia leaves with its tail tucked between its legs. Maybe China, who does not seem to be a fan of Russia's maneuvering, does not get involved. Maybe it does, and Ukraine's civilian casualties pale in comparison to what could follow.

My hope is that NATO can find a peaceful solution. There could be a diplomatic solution involving giving Russia Crimea as a condition to Ukraine joining NATO, which might avoid full-scale conflict and kick the can down the road for when Putin decides it cannot trust NATO to honor its word. Likely there are far better solutions that leverage geopolitical realities I have not thought of, as I am not a politician, historian, military expert, or geographer. Or the world can strongly condemn them in the media and send Ukrainians guns, because that seems to be working so well.

> Russia's many comments that they are protecting ethnic Russian speakers

This is a pretext to justify entry into conflicts that benefit Russia's national interests. I don't think we disagree there based on the rest of your paragaphs so I won't bother justifying that statement, merely confirm we're on the same page. This is especially true...

> in the guise of protecting/freeing ethnic Russian lands

...for Ukraine. I am incredibly skeptical that Putin gives a shit about any group of Russians unless he has a national interest in doing so.

> Those individual politicians and state media are mouthpieces for authoritarian Putin, but you respond as if Russian politicians have their own agency and Russian media are CNN and not so controlled that they face imprisonment if they call the current war a war.

They no doubt do what Putin wants when ordered but have their own thoughts and opinions. Some, like the oligarchs who own Russia's business interests privatized after the collapse of the USSR, likely do have the power to influence Putin by force and every account I've read of this dynamic asserts that Putin's relationship them is akin to a neo-feudalistic court more than god commanding his disciples. Not really sure why you reacted so strongly to my original "some", but I guess more clarification on my personal stance since you think I'm a Putin apologist.

Did I forget to stress that I hate Putin and will celebrate when he is no longer in power?

[1]: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm

[2]: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/12/putin-russia-us-missile...