I do a lot of data science work for various business problems. No deep learning image whatevers. Just understanding how processes work and influencing decisions. I can't relate to a lot of what this person is saying.

> Sometimes, I was so scientifically sound that the business lost money. I automated a hyperparameter tuning procedure that split training and validation sets into many folds based on time and picked hyperparameters that averaged best performance across all the sets. I only realized how silly this was in hindsight. I should have taken the hyperparameters that yielded the best model for the latest evaluation set.

What's silly here is thinking that the minor adjustment of hyper parameters from set to set is likely to make a difference. This might hold for some niche deep learning problems but it sounds later on like she isn't doing this. I rarely see an optuna parameter optimization affect the AUC of a model by more than 0.02 vs arbitrary choices. Most business problems tend to be pretty simple. I just can't imagine this parameter choice makes a difference.

> I have done enough research on production ML now to know that it pays to simply overfit to the most recent data and constantly retrain. Successful companies do this.

Nonsense. Dangerous nonsense.

> It puzzles me when people say that small companies can’t retrain every day because they don’t have FAANG-style budgets. It costs a few dollars, at best, to retrain many xgboost or scikit-learn models. Most models are not large language models. I learned this circuitously, while doing research in ML monitoring.

This is accurate. I find it weird that people feel the need to retrain models so frequently though. Context matters I guess. But then they talk about data drift...

> Anecdotes like this really get me in a tizzy. I think it’s because what I thought were important and interesting problems are now, sadly, only interesting. Researchers think distribution shift is very important, but model performance problems that stem from natural distribution shift suddenly vanish with retraining.

It sounds like this person is just retraining their models at a high frequency until a hyper parameter search randomly produces something that looks good on an evaluation set. I don't see any evidence of them ACTUALLY EVALUATING THEIR PERFORMANCE. The missing piece to all of this is taking the predictions they made with this process and seeing how it compared to the unseen future outcomes in retrospect. If you think you're fine because you make a new model every day that works for yesterday's data, which they openly imply is overfit to that period, you might just be making a new mistake every day. A good AUC or R2 on your evaluation set doesn't guarantee that it'll be good on new data.

> I had a hard time finding the gold nugget in data drift, the practical problem. Now it seems obvious: data and engineering issues—instances of sudden drifts—trigger model performance drops. Maybe yesterday’s job to generate content-related features failed, so we were stuck with old content-related features. Maybe a source of data was corrupted, so a bunch of features became null-valued.

What? This seems pretty crazy to me. You should have alarm bells built in that freak out if important features are turning up null or corrupted. This person seems to have no idea if their model is working! They just know it worked for yesterday. They allude to doing this later on, but even then... broken data pipelines is not what people typically mean by data drift.

I see no discussion of real performance evaluation, understanding how the models work, or how to make real use of the model outputs.