> Keep in mind Russia is only starting to cut off Western Europe (which is only starting to cut off itself), so oil and gas prices still have lots of room to go up if Putin doesn't relent (which he won't).

> Also we've yet to price in impacts to food from the global fertilizer shortage.

The US at least can protect itself from rising prices by prohibiting oil and food exports and thus increase domestic supply - they are a net exporter for both. The European Union however is completely dependent on either Russia or the OPEC oil sheiks, we will be hit real hard (but that shouldn't bother US stocks all too much).

> The last time wheat prices went through the roof in North Africa it kicked off the Arab Spring and subsequent Syrian Civil War as side effects.

That one will be the real interesting part, but again, it's mostly us Europeans who will feel the impact the most - the US can simply send off a bunch of soldiers to the Mexican border and continue treating people fleeing from utter poverty even worse than us Europeans manage to do. The US doesn't care all too much about Africa, Arabia and most of Asia except China and Russia any more, no matter what goes down there they won't involve themselves.

The problem for us Europeans is that our leaders are ineffective and the crises are accumulating:

- the UK government is outright collapsing at the moment and its society fracturing up, not to mention the economic consequences of Brexit or the potential split-offs of Scotland and Northern Ireland. I don't even want to speculate when they will have a stable-ish government with sane policies again.

- France is headed for difficult times, similar to Obama's last six years Macron will have to live without a parliamentary majority

- The Dutch government is still unstable and it's highly unlikely Rutte will survive his term

- Germany... well, Olaf Scholz is no leader, doesn't want to be a leader and frankly he should resign. The coalition itself is beginning to tear apart, particularly because of the financially extremist FDP.

- Europe still doesn't have any sort of common concept on how to deal with immigrants and refugees, partially because Viktor Orban and the Polish PiS keep blocking anything that would require them to house their fair share of migrants or even pay in solidarity. Meanwhile at the borders, horrible crimes against humanity are reported regularly (beatings and illegal pushbacks at the Poland-Belarus border, refugees being extorted by Greek border police to aid in illegal pushbacks at the Turkish sea border, refugees dying at the Spain-Maroccan border in Melilla, people drowning at sea because aid ships are regularly seized by Italian police, ...). The Turkish dictator Erdogan keeps using refugees or the threat of sending them as a political way of extortion.

- Germany has long undermined any sort of independency from Russian gas and oil, and now we're doing dirty deals with Qatar instead of forcefully modernizing industry and housing or doing anything to meaningfully conserve energy.

- Prices in the EU are exploding: rent, energy, food. And our politicians don't have the will or the financial power to assist those in poverty.

Europe is getting fucked hard, the US may escape that same fate if Biden and especially his Democrat Senators get their shit together.