People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches.

So your argument that remote work harms the economy is because it hurts businesses that sell coffee for at least a 10x markup over what it would cost to make it yourself when the one advantage they offered - convenience - ceased to be relevant? Should we also mourn the demise of the horse and cart? That's not how economics works. The money that was being spent on coffees doesn't just disappear. It becomes available to spend on something else and the greater efficiency is a boon overall.

As for things like transportation of commuters that's a clear win for both quality of life (less time wasted on journeys) and the environment (less pollution and consumption of resources for unnecessary journeys). And again economically what is lost in transport infrastructure might be gained in better communications infrastructure and technology that enable better working from home and bring other benefits as well.

People don't go to cafes locally because they have a coffee machine at home.

There's a cafe just down the road from my home. It's a family-run business that employs local people. Everything is made fresh and the quality of the food is significantly better than the average chain sandwich shop.

They now have so many new staff working for them that I don't even know everyone's name any more. It must be at least 3x the scale they were pre-COVID. They are busy throughout the day with tradespeople stopping in on a break or parents with young families getting out out of the house for a while. Of course at lunchtime they are packed and even with the extra help and redesigned kitchen they now have there is usually still a bit of a wait at the peak time.

My impression is that even when working from home a lot of people still like to get out of the house for a break now and then and still value the convenience of having a decent lunch made for them. I don't see the market for this kind of local place going anywhere. On the contrary the growth in demand has been obvious.

Companies aren't just going to fire managers. That would be unfair.

It's unfair to fire people who can't get results when literally the only reason to employ them is to improve results and they are demonstrably incompetent? That's an interesting perspective but I'm not sure it's going to result in a lot of groundbreaking economics papers getting published any time soon...

Too early? Two-years in?

Of course. Since COVID started we've seen huge changes in our lifestyles. We've seen patterns in property markets sharply disrupted. We've obviously seen business arrangements change fundamentally for a lot of knowledge workers. The way we shop has changed. The way we socialise has changed. Use of technology (by non-experts) has changed. Education has changed. How we think about our health and provide healthcare has changed.

I would be surprised if we know what the "new normal" looks like before at least another 5-10 years have passed. I doubt it will ever be the same as the old normal no matter what a few dinosaurs in business and government might think about subjects like remote working. They'll simply be outcompeted by employers who offer a pleasant working environment and take care of their staff whether that's in a company building or at home or on the move or some mix of those.