skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> Oh look, big drops in 1992

The data I just posted shows a 22% increase in 1992, 38% down in 1993, 35% up in 1994, 32% down in 1995, 12% up in 1996, 23% up in 1997, .....

There was drops before 1992 also, e.g. 16% down in 1991. Maybe the laws were not the magic cause of all this?

Know what trendlines are? Time smoothed analysis?

>and 2009

Data shows up 30% in 2009. I just posted the data.

I guess you ignore trendlines, right? Can I point to the large years of increase and simply claim the laws completely failed? You only seem able to point to successes and ignore failures.....

>The fact is that New Zealand has repeatedly tightened gun laws, and repeatedly seen corresponding drops in gun homicides.

The fact is also that the US saw fewer laws and had a much bigger drop [1] in homicide rates during the same period.... Is this evidence New Zealand's laws reduced the drop they would have gotten without any laws? This is the kind of voodoo you're chasing.

The fact is, as I've now written many times, is lots of countries saw the same drops without such laws. The question was do such laws cause the reductions, or are there other causes. Since cross country data shows these drops without such laws, that is strong evidence that the laws are not responsible for the drops. Criminology rese3atrch points more likely to reduction of lead in the environment being the cause.

If you really want to learn - lead paint was banned in New Zealand in 1979, gas phased out starting in 1986.... Australia stopped most lead paint use in 1970, and slowly banned it completely. US banned paint in 1978, This repeats all over the first world......

Want to see a source? [2]. Go ahead and keep beating the dead horse, and ignore that there is a really plausible, well-researched explanation for these drops, and it's not the one you keep implying is the reason.

You keep picking small pieces of data, ignoring counter facts, missing the overall trend, and ignoring the evidence I cite. Your "about" comment on your profile seems apt. I'm done.

[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/murd...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead#Effect_on_crime...
Happened to me as well. I think it would be OK but only with a warning - since mostly it is obvious that an application start's to consume more and more ram.
And also a gcc-2.95.3 maintanance because a lot of old programs won't compile in the new gcc versions (c89 minimum).
And in a very real sense AGW is a resource shortage problem... the natural resource that's being depleted here is the natural carbon cycle that that kept CO2 levels fairly stable and gave us temperatures at the near optimal levels they were at during the time that civilization developed. We are "depleting" this resource by overloading it with excess CO2 and by destroying natural carbon sinks.

Natural resources aren't limited to materials, natural processes also qualify. So it is also with fresh water... we won't "run out" of water, but we are exceeding the water-recycling capacities of the biosphere and thus this absolutely essential natural resource is becoming quite scarce in a lot of places. Theoretically you can replace it with artificial processes (desalination, treating contaminated water, etc) but to do that on a scale that can replace that natural water cycle is completely beyond our technology for now.
If only there was a way to get more people into the developed world without people in the developed world creating new people twenty+ years at a time...

The secret to America's success has always been immigration, whether by violent colonialism, accepting of refugees from persecution or war, or inviting talented people to become citizens.
Respectfully, this doesn't prove that the law of supply and demand no longer applies. Any individual seller may choose not to decrease their prices -- but if they do it long enough, they run out of money and are forced to sell.

It's also difficult to tease out the effect of general price inflation. If house prices stay stagnant but currency is devauled, prices are decreasing in real terms.
The two most easily diagnosable metrics are a blood test showing reactivated EBV and/or a POTS diagnosis (which involves measurements of how your blood pressure and heart rate change while changing positions). Just because someone doesn't have those doesn't mean they aren't suffering long term effects from COVID.

I've had both consistently for about 2 years now, along with some other neurological symptoms post-covid (no clinical anxiety or depression though). It's made me more of a believer in listening to other people's experiences.
> I suspect that my opinion is just as much gibberish as yours clearly is, but with more self-awareness.

OK thank you layman for your ad-hominem, I have extensive expertise in medecine and pharmacology and have extensively studied the thymus, spleen, associated peptides and immune and aging biomarkers, so what seems to you as gibberish is actual valid statements or for a few ones, very reasonable and necessary to be asked speculations.
But indeed, an expert is often difficult to distinguish from a bullshitter when the layman lacks discernment, a formation in epistemology nor care to check any of the sourced premises.

> why would that "budget" be "for vaccines" _only_ ?

Well for starters I do not question wether there is a budget limit, there is it is a fact. I even explain in detail that a necessary component in the equation are naive lymphocite T and that aging and environement stressors induce an atrophy (involution/shrinkage) of the thymus and therefore of the total number of differentiated mature lymphocytes T.
Also obviously I do not say that this only apply for vaccines, real covid is not much different from the spike protein and in fact induce more damage, however the question has to be asked, regardless.

> consider what answer would have better evolutionary fitness

and yet having a limit is an evolutionary fitness as show the existence of thymus involution, both for reduced energy use and programmed aging evolutionnary benefits as shows the many papers on the topic.
Obviously, as you should have guessed, the limit only matter to not be reached before the age of reproduction, which is < 20 years old
I've hit this before on official channels, too (namely #guix). I did discover the forbidden knowledge of non-guix repo at one point, but I agree that it's silly to not even acknowledge its existence. just turns people off honestly. we're not all rms.
I have no idea. This was a quarter century ago. :D
Poverty alone doesn't mean getting your brains to do brain stuff.

Most devs don't live in poverty, but most devs also aren't doing innovative work. They spend their limited intellectual stamina trying to make the boss richer, not modeling out a cancer detection algorithm.
I think in the two scenarios you can focus on either the positives or the negatives.

When population goes up:
positive - the area is vibrant economically; negative - rent is spiraling upwards out of control

When population goes down:
positive - rent is finally affordable; negative - the area is falling apart existentially

I think the media in general has found the negative spin sells better.
No, they tell you there’s excess mortality. They don’t tell you if it is a result of Covid, of skipping medical care, of lockdowns, of substance abuse, etc.

Some countries experienced essentially no excess death even without vaccines, and some experienced non-Covid attributed excess death independent of vaccines. You really can’t read anything off excess death, except that it exists (where it exists)
It sure seems like a lot of people in the medical community are taking it pretty seriously. Given the quantity of medical journal articles discussing long covid, I'm going to go with YES
> it is hard to provide coverage in a massive country with low population.
I keep hearing and I personally think it's a distraction.

Yes covering all of Canada would be very expensive because of the low population. But, coverage is spotty after driving only 30 minutes outside of a major city centre. And there aren't too many of those.
My pessimistic and perhaps over-simplistic view is that growth is largely enabled by modern-day's squeezing of every last drop of people's disposable income. As the population becomes poorer in general (due to lack of breakthroughs in fundamental science and productivity, growing and aging population, widening inequality, etc.), the growth may eventually slowdown.
Is there a way to message another HN user, to be able to communicate without it being public but also without giving the world your email address?
I agree with you. But development doesn't happen overnight and it's the people who control the ideas and technology that have the power to develop the rest of the world. And if that population growth is in decline at the same time it's needed to push development forward, isn't that cause for concern?
I propose that extraterrestrial civilizations may use free-floating planets as interstellar transportation to reach, explore and colonize planetary systems.

Is it just me or is that completely idiotic? It's like building a spaceship whose mass is 99.99% inert. Migration is incredibly unlikely to be a thing on interstellar scales unless some kind of magical transport is discovered. That is because, under almost any conceivable schema, it takes less energy and resources to sustain an individual for its entire life than it takes to transport that individual to another solar system. Advanced civilizations may very likely spread to other solar systems, but there's no practical reason to migrate.
What are the odds these are used to park (questionably acquired) assets by wealthy foreigners?
Well when you hear e2e encryption you assume that provider who offer the service is not acting as a man in the middle and collecting the data like proton. There were cases when they obeyed by law and court order to give info on their clients.. aka us.
I can agree with that take. "The processes" ideally would filter the less suitable to more marginal positions of influence.
There’s two problems with that argument:

1. “People in developed nations don’t breed due to stress, but meh we can just replace them” is a monstrous way to think.

2. You can’t import people as replacements above a certain rate, because it’s the culture of the developed nation which causes the success — and without maintaining that culture, the benefits cease.
I think the limiting factor is traditionally considered the lack of new productive (physical) labor, not necessarily lack of new brains.
People definitely report it and genuinely believe they have it.. but similar problems occur in a small subset of all people who recover from infectious diseases.

So it may not be covid specific but it does seem to exist and with a wide ranging illness such as covid then obviously more overall people have it than from say pneumonia.
That post makes me distrust all the rest of his analysis. This conclusion in particular:

> Rather, the lesson is that we must work within serious constraints to meet future demands.

Within just a few years, his spherical cow estimates of needs have been proven to not be very useful for scoping the problem. And his proposed solution of nuclear has proven to be infeasible and too expensive.

So what pretends to be an unbiased assessment based on physical principles is revealed to actually be a huge number of assumptions that are not reflective of reality, or useful for thinking about the future.

This is the exact problem that the original post talks about. We are too easily fooled by models that are simple, and wrong, like what dothemath presents.
> It is uniquely evolved to target and damage the vascular system in the body.

There is so much panic, hysteria and just mythos around covid that I have a hard time believing this. Calling this thing "novel" gave some of these experts a hell of a lot of artistic liberty in how they describe covid.

> And people ARE tracking things like flu vs. COVID statistics. So far COVID-19 is roughly 10x as deadly as a bad flu year. Ten times...

I'm still not fully convinced that due to the massive amount of surveillance we've built around covid, it is even fair to compare the IFR of the flu vs. covid. We've never measured the progress of any virus to this degree. If we tracked the flu the same way we tracked covid, what kinds of numbers would we be getting for that virus?

We have a massive river of data coming in for covid. Vastly more data about it than any other virus in human history. I don't think anybody knows how to process all of it in a way that lets us meaningfully compare it to anything prior.
Unearned cachet only gets eliminated if the people who are actually competent begin persistently mocking people who put stock in it.

I've taken to laughing when someone proudly states that they went to a brand name school.
Non-American here: I lived in the Bay Area for a few years and hated it. There are no cities, just one big blob of suburbia.
To be further nitpicky - I believe the current theory is that most dinosaurs did have feathers.

I believe that birds are descendents from theropods and yes phylogenic-wise dinosaurs. However that seems a bit semantic.
There's a whole lot more to Electron than HTML / CSS and getting started with it is honestly a huge PITA, in my opinion. This is coming from someone well versed in full stack web development who has delivered substantial projects.
Been there the last 30 months, then because of that work stopped being fun. Now taking a time out, work gives me as much leave as I need, family/personal is harder to take vacation from. Sometimes you have to.
COVID has been the #3 cause of overall death in the US for two years now: https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2022/s0422-third-leading-...

"For the second year, COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer."

It is no exaggeration to say that COVID is a significant cause of death and threat to the health of the public. Only two things kill more people a year--heart disease and cancer. Not car accidents, not gun violence, not suicides... all those kill far fewer people than COVID.
Pants are not injected into your body.
With even hybrid work models your living a better life living up in Sac and driving down once a week.

This is a good thing. People should vote with their feet.
You say Cisco, I say Frisco.
No, worst case it just means you won't be able to redistribute blender + that addon.
> stack developer. I may not have direct experience with Your Thing but I've worked on a hundred things I didn't know because I can fucking Figure It OUT. I have the degrees, I have the experience. Oh and your little LeetCode problems are bullshit. NO ONE is out there finding the longest increasing subsequence of an integer array."

If it's any consolation, I have a decade's worth of experience on the job, and I once didn't pass the first-stage leetcode test. I ground leetcode using one of those websites for a week, then failed at one of their questions; one of which I didn't think made sense.

I spoke with the internal recruiter, who attempted to give "feedback" but I said, don't bother, as it isn't really useful. They said my response wasn't the first time he had heard that from people with a lot of experience, but that his hands were tied as the tests were deemed important by their head of technology.
Have spend a bit over 50 hours playing elden ring on the steam deck under proton and the experience has been pretty great so far (the ui sucks but thats os independent). Might be worth taking a look if you can run proton and use the steam deck profiles for controllers etc on your distro.
How can it be three years behind when the OpenSearch project is barely one year old?

PfSalter, are you able to quantify what is nicer and improved about the elastic-hosted version?

In my experience, OpenSearch remains largely interchangeable with ES and has been a relative pleasure to integrate and use.
100% this ^. I listen podcasts daily, am interested in discovering new ones, and do not create any podcasts. Looking at the home page I'm not sure how to find any content. Definitely not interested in creating an account just to see what's there.

I recommend reading Reddit's origin story. There needs to be interesting content to get the first users to create content.

Maybe the goal is to sell podcasters and get them to bring their audience? Even then I think you need a good home page experience to hook those listeners.
Most past civilizations didn't fail due to a single resource collapse. Also, most of them didn't have free-markets oriented around innovation.
I’m currently not working due to disability. I’m applying for SSDI right now which is a bummer process.

It’s hard: I’ve been essentially out of work for a few years as well and I feel like my life has fallen out of sync with the rest of reality.

You’re not failing as a person. The world we live in isn’t made for us. We have to adapt just to meet the baseline that everyone else shows up with every day and it takes a lot of effort.
Production sites like YouTube, Instagram, Netflix, Reddit, ...?
https://www.botreetechnologies.com/blog/top-15-websites-buil...
I'm nowhere near an expert in this field but it's something I do a lot of research about because of my family history.

Heart disease has been the leading cause of death (mostly for men over 30 and women over 60) for a very long time [1].

According to [2] and [3] the world's number of deaths by cardiac illness was about a million people larger in 2021 than in 2017, but because of the delayed effect that heart issues can have we might not be able to see the true increase the last year has had until it's well behind us.

The sad fact is that a lot of us are going to die of a heart problem we didn't even know we had. And since heart health is affected by so many things it's very difficult to find a single root cause for it in anybody. That said there's already research showing that cases of arrhythmia and atrial fibrillation are increased in people who had covid within 1 year of contracting it [4]. Which makes sense because heart problems increase in people who contract many life threatening illnesses, such as certain types of cancer [5].

Our hearts take hits from just about everything that happens to us and everything we do, and our means of identifying, preventing, curing, or (someday I hope) reversing heart illness is still far behind where it needs to be. Please remember to get physicals at the recommended pace for your age group (ask your doctor) and try to do things to get your heart pumping in a good way when you can.

[1] https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsde...

[2] https://deadorkicking.com/death-statistics/worldwide/2018/

[3] https://deadorkicking.com/death-statistics/worldwide/2021/

[4] https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2022/covid-and-the-heart-it-spa...

[5] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28618843/

edit: some grammar
Very bad. A few years ago I left a position because frankly it was extremely dysfunctional and abusive. No one I turned to for advice (except those who already left) really believed it could be as bad as it was, and the advice was repeatedly to just wait it out. After years of this I just didn't see how it would change, ran out of things to try.

Since then things have become even worse than they were where I was, in even more obvious ways. So I feel vindicated in that sense. But feeling vindicated isn't really that helpful, the position was difficult to obtain, and I've had difficulty knowing what to do next. Other similar positions are near impossible to obtain, and part of why I left was because I wanted to go into a different field with more flexibility in terms of positions (the other was to support family).

Financially I'm fine but I feel lost, like I'll never be able to reenter a career, despite being capable. I feel as if I'm starting over from scratch and don't know where to go at this stage.
Why does the media care if you get a 4th dose? How does it help them?
Medications for anxiety and depression can cause brain fog and fatigue.
Driving a car with >= 200 horsepower is fun as hell. Performance is one of the main reasons that Tesla stans are into the brand. Generally, people buy smaller cars because they can't afford larger ones.
OMFG, I thought this was a hypothetical at the start of this comment. Forget GPUs, $150 for a Raspberry Pi Zero??? And people say Bitcoin is Tulip mania.
Nope.

Data from 40 health care systems participating in a large network found that the risk for cardiac complications was significantly higher after SARS-CoV-2 infection than after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination for both males and females in all age groups.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7114e1.htm
Do you mean a treatment for anxiety and depression or a cause?

“Here's to alcohol: the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems.” -Homer Simpson
Wake and bake, coffee, cigarette. Puts me in a great mood all day long.

I'm trying so hard not to get in my car and go to the store right now...
Is there evidence for it being a strong signal in the first place?

Once you have work experience, either from your first few jobs, or for some from internships, then your school rarely matters. It's not like you learned some revolutionary thing that is exclusive to MIT 20 years ago, or that whatever you learned is even applicable for that matter.
And IANAL but AIUI most of those banners are illegal anyways; just browsing the site isn't consent and you're generally not allowed to force the issue unless the cookies in question are actually functionally useful to the user. At least I think that's how it works, I'm really not a lawyer and this isn't something that I pay much attention to.
A few challenges I think you should consider:

1. People do their podcast listening on other platforms/players - what's the incentive for them to comment/post on Podbabble?

2. Podcasts have existing community/discussion on other platforms (FB, Discord, etc) that are free - what would motivate them to pay this service?

3. Could you demonstrate that Podbabble drives growth/downloads? That would motivate hosts and podcast marketers
UK universities also have 'external examiners', who are academics from the same subject area in other universities. They're tasked with providing moderation feedback to try to keep standards for each (taught) degree classification roughly comparable between institutions. (They also provide input into course design, warn university highers-up if the programme is going off the rails, and other things).

It's far from perfect, and standards do vary from course to course and institution to institution, but it's better than nothing. And not all in one direction, either: after the first year of the MSc programme I (later) took, the external examiners' report said that our department had marked very harshly, and several excellent students deserving of distinctions (and who would have got them in other universities) had been denied. The recommendation was to actually award the highest marks in the future.

I'm directing my own new MA programme next year, and I'm curious to see what feedback I get. Marking, where there's no established disciplinary body of knowledge to get through and assess, is decidedly non-trivial to get right.
Aqua – Declarative CLI Version Manager. Install Tools Easily and Quickly
Was this study also with an average age of 71? (cohort was US veterans with 3 week vax interval. Also baseline mortality in the group was 1% over 6mo - definitely an older, vulnerable population).

So yeah, not a representative study at all.

And I'm someone who's somewhat concerned specifically about long covid.
> there's no practical reason to migrate

Nearby star going supernova?
The lab leak hypothesis is still well in the realm of possible. Not known but not impossible.