skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> You are talking about a completely unrelated process of updating priors about bias of independent events.

I hear you. I understand the point you are making.

But, the two issues are not entirely unrelated…

You are assuming - a priori - that the tosses are independent. That assumption can be tested. Right?
How would you test it?
Wouldn’t your belief in the independence of throws be affected by a long run of heads?
What if there was some mechanism whereby a previous head slightly increase the chance of it being heads again?
Even if we couldn’t conceive of what the mechanism was, certainly we could test for it, right? How would we do that?
https://archive.ph/NXh0K
The Pillar of Autumn has the Marathon logo on it, so there’s definitely crossover between the two universes.

edit: https://www.halopedia.org/List_of_Marathon_references_in_the...
I have tons of Chinese friends who do this in Silicon Valley. Has it spread outside that community?
Fidel Castro was an American citizen?

> .. that the CIA does when those enemies are American citizens.
It is possible that approximately 50% of all users were affected, or the requests timed out 50% of the time.
OK I’m a little envious. How did it work out in practice? Why did you decide to move away?
List of Authors and Works on the Catholic Church's Index Librorum Prohibitorum
I use Fidelity and Webull. I have no strong preference. They both get the job done.
Huh? The article discusses his conversations with several high ranking members of the intelligence community. And their programs monitoring the press and their lengthy classified dossier on the author. For example

>Mueller cross-examined me: Were the NSA documents not lawfully classified? Were they not stolen? Did I not publish them anyway?
Sort of...? The protocol is, but I guess the command is not. Sounds like people are working on a new version of scp. More: https://lwn.net/Articles/835962/
On the other hand, there may be a toggle that in essence reads: apply manipulation (algorithmic filters)/remove manipulation (algorithmic filters).
Net Cafe archives; a show about the web (1996-2002)
It really depends on how you define "high-level". Yeah the attitude that some people "just can't do math" is not good, I don't disagree with you there. But that's not the same as acknowledging that some people may pick up math more quickly.

Holding kids back is really the opposite of cultivating mathematical achievement. To use the reading analogy, do you think a kid that can read at 4th grade level should be forced to only read 1st grade books anyway because that's what their age is? I'm not sure what that accomplishes.

It'd be one thing to make a resource allocation argument but that's not even what this is. This curriculum is clearly a philosophical statement and personally I don't get it.
Corporatization
It wasn't a hostile takeover then either. Making an offer to a board is not a "hostile takeover attempt", trying to buy 51% of the outstanding shares (without approval of the board or shareholders) is a hostile takeover.

Zero responsible reporting called this a hostile takeover. The closest you can come is journalists who speculated that a hostile takeover might be attempted if the offer to the board were rejected. There is nothing beyond speculation to show that this was ever a possibility.
What I don't understand is why Clapper wasn't at the very least charged with perjury for lying to Congress under oath.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/5-people-who-lied-...
Half the year there was no farming to do.

If they built them that way, that means laying one 2-ton block each minute of every daylight hour for half of each of 20 years. Plus extra for the special features.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Hampton

Context: “ In 1967, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) identified Hampton as a radical threat. It tried to subvert his activities in Chicago, sowing disinformation among black progressive groups and placing a counterintelligence operative in the local Panthers organization. In December 1969, Hampton was drugged, shot and killed in his bed during a predawn raid at his Chicago apartment by a tactical unit of the Cook County State's Attorney's Office, who received aid from the Chicago Police Department and the FBI leading up to the attack.”
Agree with telling the truth.

How did you tell full-time employers who interview you that you have clients on the side?

Do you just tell them the truth that it is none of their business?
Yeah, to clarify, my original objections were generated by Deutsch's dismissals of Bayesian epistemology on grounds of fundamental invalidity, rather than practicality. I agree that practicality is often a serious concern! I've also attempted a startup and not once did I ever run an explicit Bayesian calculation.

Naive applications of many powerful techniques often turn out to be actively harmful, unfortunately.

But without explicit probability calculation and mathification, we can't actually track our predictions (often of hugely uncertain events) over time, and if you can't track your predictions over time you'll have a hard time improving.

https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-trac...

I don't know if anyone's written up the math, but it should be pretty intuitive to get a sense of the differential. Consider that you need 20 bits of information to distinguish one thing from approximately a million. (Isomorphic: the odds of a coin coming up heads 20 times in a row is 1/2^20.) Now, of course, superforecasters aren't perfect predictors, but they're also predicting things much harder than coin flips - there's no such thing as "playing it safe" with brier scores. Matching or outperforming domain experts across a wide variety of domains, over a long period of time, involving many questions (hundreds if not thousands) is not really the sort of thing that happens by coincidence.
I mean Azure/AWS/GCP doesn't need VC money though lol
Oh, wow; thanks for the link, this is very cute.
Dumb question: how do team salaries work? Who funds the team?
Eh, I’d be okay with the humans trying to become like me. (In the theoretical sense again; I ain’t a role model in this incarnation.)
So, the solution is to instead decide at ~grade 6 or 7 that some people are going to get dragged down, instead?
Not sure if this is acceptable to you, but Uber has a web app at <https://m.uber.com>. I seem to recall that you have to "request" access in order to use it, but it was an automated rubber-stamp thing. The only downside (besides what you'd expect for a web app vs a native app) is that you can't do fancy things like multiple destinations in one trip, or changing your destination on the fly.

The Lyft equivalent is <https://ride.lyft.com>.
Or you spend 7.5 hours x2 on creating good environments that can be used in both companies and so each company gets 7.5 hours of free benefit
It was something that was speculated about. I have seen zero evidence that Musk tried to lay the ground work (e.g. lining up the loans or selling enough stocks to finance such am attempt).

This "journalist" doesn't qualify anything and makes a statement of fact that Musk mounted hostile takeover bid.

That is simply bad reporting.
Okay, but did you notice a difference?

Sometimes I wash, sometimes I don't.
> It's a young man's game, because it's a poor man's game.

MTG? A poor man's game?! HAH!

...Unless you mean it's the reason he's poor.
So, then, any idea why Haskell is under-represented in commercial software projects?
Hold up.

Where is this concern for juniors?

Where is this concern for literally anyone else?

Anyone else = meh, builds character.

Musk or a billionaire? Ooooo! Everyone look out! He might just be human!

Frickin market man. Absolutely in-sane.
I was mostly pointing out the sequence from Rolex > Seiko > Omega.

> Rolex invented the idea in the 50s

Your timeline is off: “In 1922, Rolex launched the Submarine – a watch attached on a hinge inside a second, outer case, whose bezel and crystal screwed down to make the outer case watertight.” https://www.rolex.com/about-rolex-watches/waterproofness.htm...

What they don’t say is the Blancpain Fifty Fathoms and Zodiac Sea Wolf both predate the iconic Rolex Submariner. By 1962 there where quite a few dive watches though rarely owned by people that used them for diving.

As to product placement that also goes back to the 1920’s films. By 1962 they where commonplace, though as you say hard to prove. Much like payola of the day, brands could make deals with individuals rather than the movie it’s self. Really it’s mostly the prominence in the early bond films that suggest otherwise.
If you scroll down it says it under the "API request" heading. 1 credit is £1 and allows 1M API calls. There are a few APIs that are charged above the base rate so that number will be slightly lower but effectively 1 credit is £1. The reason for using credits is because a lot of our users complained of currency fluctuation and preferred not to have something dollar denominated.
You can't copyright dictionary common names like crispy and cream but you can copyright Krispy and Kreme.
I gather +536 felt longer.
"SINCE I MET EDWARD SNOWDEN, I’VE NEVER STOPPED WATCHING MY BACK"

That is the title of the article when I click the link. (Caps and all came through in copy-paste). Where is this "Espionage or Journalism" coming from? Are there different titles shown to different viewers?
Different strokes for different folks. I run a pretty vanilla Ubuntu on a desktop at home, and macOS on an M1 laptop at work. The out of the box experience on Ubuntu / Gnome these days feels better to me for the things I do: web browser, terminal, emacs, and perhaps an unfair addition-Steam games.

The macOS experience out of the box turns out to be pretty rough in some places, and is untweakable. I recently gave up on my ergonomic trackball and bought a generic mouse because making the scroll buttons work in macOS was impossible.

I took a long hiatus from Linux to run exclusively macOS until just a few years ago, then I started running a mix again. If I have to run a laptop, nobody beats Apple on hardware. But macOS is the price I pay to have a portable that gets good battery life. It's a compromise. By contrast, if I could had a permanent desk at work that I could have a desktop computer at, I'd much prefer that.
I misunderstood the context, thank you.
The three finger swipe up (“mission control”) reveals the hidden dock if you need to see it or use it
Shower thoughts, I thought today about what you said, and realized that you might be thinking of the term “expected value” to mean the same thing as “what do I expect the future value of this equity to be?”. In that sense, you’re right, equity’s value cannot go negative. There are dumb little corner cases where you buy stock and get taxed and it tanks before you sell, or things like that. But speaking generally, the monetary value of equity is mostly zero or positive, and cannot go very far negative nor is very likely to go negative.

That would be logical and a reasonable assumption, but that’s not what the term “expected value” actually means. The term has a specific mathematical meaning in statistics that is very different from the calculation of what your options are worth. EV specifically means that you take the outcome of all possibilities, and you weight them by the probability of each possibility. This is why I was insisting that you need to account for the case where you take a larger salary and no equity, because that is the other major possibility, and it’s what you trade away when you take equity as part of a startup compensation package. This is what the term “opportunity cost” is referring to, it’s referring to the path you didn’t take.

So, I (perhaps) see what you were trying to say, and I agree with you insofar as equity won’t cost you actual cash once you have it. But it can and does cost you money that you could have had, if you took a different path. It’s important to understand what “expected value” and “opportunity cost” mean before you choose to take the equity. Once you have the equity, it’s too late and you’ve already paid the opportunity cost, now you have to hope the equity becomes valuable enough to exceed all the salary you traded it for.
Because the title (at least when I am reading this) states "Payment startup"
> The news of Elon Musk buying Twitter has put Mastodon into the public spotlight as an alternative social network, rapidly exploding our growth with over 30,000 new users in just a single day.

How many users does Mastodon have in total? I don't want to sound dismissive, but based on that number it seems like they probably have like a million or so, which is kind of disappointing compared to the size of Twitter…
I wonder how much of a factor it is how the sports are organized. The NBA has thirty teams with a lot of players each. Probably a single NBA team has more players than many games have professional e-athletes. That probably creates room for more players who aren't the best in the world and room for players who bring experience but are older. Maybe a better are other single player sports. Chess, tennis or golf come to mind.
I simply entered “hello” and let it complete the rest twice. The first result was about diversity in esports and gender pronouns. The second was about the new world order. What a time to be alive.
Thank you! We appreciate your support! (Heidi from Kraftful team)
Well, as long as it is run centrally, it can never be "global consciousness". Even if you trust Musk to run it in an open and transparent fashion, there is no guarantee that this will continue to happen after he's gone.

The same forces that control the media (corporations, states) will continue to control Twitter policing. The idea that everything that is legal will be allowed on Twitter is great in Musk's head but it will be circumvented by shadow laws in the name of "national security" or "protecting the children" or something similar... and not necessarily in a transparent way because they can be marked "confidential"... and if Twitter fails to comply, the forces will get rid of it... or worse, those who run it.

The only foolproof way to ensure free speech is to run it fully decentralized. It doesn't have to have unlimited history... one can archive important tweets if necessary.

If that becomes successful though, the forces may target those who maintain the system... so they need to remain anonymous but give control to the community as soon as possible so that the system can continue to live even if they die by suicide with two bullets on the back of their heads.

Also, if that successfully happens, the chipmakers will be targeted because the only way to fight the people will be to stop production of computers. So, that needs to be reasonably decentralized first.

Fighting the globalist cartel and truly giving voice to the people is much more difficult than Musk and his followers in the issue seem to think.
Some options:

https://microacquire.com/

https://flippa.com/

https://empireflippers.com/

Possibly at Indiehackers.com
Show HN: Mastodon Bulk Find and Follow
I couldn't find an easy way to find all of my Twitter followings and followers on Mastodon, so I whipped up this MVP.
While I agree, that's not very relevant to the subject of this article, which is more about how Clapper labeled Greenwald, Poitras and Gellman as "accomplices" of Snowden.
It's a lot more basic than that. Everyone can steal game knowledge by just copying what other people do, but the ability of progamers to click quickly and accurately and efficiently divide their attention and context switch between multiple things is way harder to copy. If you've never seen the first person view of a Starcraft 1 progamer, you should watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfAU2lw6BrQ#t=6m8s
> Specifically, I think I got the math right but the example wrong (and I confused you too).

Don't worry, I was much more confused before you came along :-). I also followed the math in the paper but didn't know what devastating contradiction for Bayesianism it was oh-so-darkly hinting at.

I keep trying to describe what happens if e and h are both general, and bouncing off.

Let's try a different assumption: e is the statement "the first person tested is consistent with smoking->cancer". And in fact, we just tested them, and they're a smoker and have cancer. So e is unambiguously true. And h is the hypothesis "smoking -> cancer". Then:

- e is 1

- h has increased

- h|e has increased, in fact it is 1

- h|~e has decreased

h|e is tautologically true, once we have observed e. And h|~e is e->h, the amount to which this observation implies "smoking->cancer". Which seems odd, though I don't have an immediate intuition about how an observation is supposed to effect, not the hypothesis that it supports, but the implication between itself and that hypothesis. But maybe that's the darkly-hinted-at problem?
Nikola wants them to run on AC current ;P
Please provide a citation showing any attempt at a hostile takeover.

The poison pill was adopted to forestall any hostile attempt if the offer was rejected and try to secure a better bargaining position if they decided to accept the offer.
And what institutions are responsible for spending half of the waking hours of a child teaching culture?
You are ok with people having 2 jobs right and meeting expectations for both jobs?

You are just not ok with people disappearing and not working at all right?

What was the failed method that the project manager used for velocity?

How did the management do better at noticing than the project manager velocity?
L1 and L2 can post correct ionosphere noise, as they travel differently there. They cannot post correct troposphere differences because they travel the same there. Without RTK, which measures the time varying local errors, you cannot undo that error with current GNS systems. It's precisely this reason RTK was developed.
The page title is "Espionage or Journalism..."
Holy hell. Thank you for that website. When I was a kid I downloaded a game called “Foodfight” from the Internet cafe. However, when I got the floppy home, I attempted to run it on my dad’s Mac but it would not launch. For the last 25 years I’ve periodically wondered about that game, if it was any good or not, and why it didn’t launch (first mystery solved, it’s written in HyperCard!). I can’t wait to tell my dad.
IT department or just a one person sysadmin role.
Yeah, that might do it, although from a brief skim, I suspect it's likely to end up with function color issues making it hard to really embrace virtual threads. Interesting to read about, thanks.
Feels like this could be a bit of Whatsapp/Signal moment, when FB/Meta was changing Whatsapp's privacy policy. Don't let a crisis go to waste?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-signal-users/signal-sees-...

> Signal was downloaded by 17.8 million users over the past seven days, a 62-fold rise from the prior week, according to data from Sensor Tower. WhatsApp was downloaded by 10.6 million users during the same period, a 17% decline. (January 13, 2021)

(the irony is not lost on me that @elonmusk contributed to the above frenzy: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1347165127036977153 ["Use Signal"])
You are assuming everyone would stay with Safari?

I'm not sure the percentage, but a lot of people already use chrome on iOS. Which is just a wrapper around apple's browser engine (webkit).

If apple allows other browser engines, then Chrome would be an automatic app update away from changing to the chromium engine (blink?).
https://joinmastodon.org/ claims 4.4 million.
That's a local PD killing someone, we know they do that a lot. People also get swatted, the FBI is not the only group of people who sends out local PDs in a way that gets citizens killed.
Whoops, correct. And one often gets few mm precision using all bands and all available info, even for sub $300 parts.
I grew up on 60 acres. My best memories from my childhood are of me exploring our woods with our dogs and I wanted the same for my children.

The privacy is nice, too. My wife and I regularly go in our hot tub naked and have only been surprised by a hunter tracking a deer once ;)
Heat wave in India threatens residents and crucial wheat harvest
Which was, notably, Tuesday.
> I think the 7-day week is more of a statement about how effective the Judeo-Christian culture has imposed a modern week on the rest of the world.

The 7-day week originated in Sumerian Babylon culture from 2100 BC and has to do with quartering moon phases. I worry when seeing many things attributed to "Judeo-Christian culture" which actually originated from other cultures, many aspects of what's in "Judeo-Christian culture" including perhaps some of the key stories in the Old Testament like the Flood appear to have been copied or at least inspired by stories from Sumerian culture which was considered the 'high culture' of the region.
https://archive.ph/QZU9T
But both of those cases are concerning the “Bayesian epistemology” side of things, not using probability to reason about how to bet in games of chance with well-established rules and mechanics. The usage of probability Deutsch is approving of is the latter, and is unrelated to a particular observer’s level of confidence that the cards are designed fairly or that the dealer and other players are playing fairly.
I don’t understand finance much but I think that Musk will soon have to make Twitter public again. A huge part of this deal is being financed through banks and using Tesla stock as collateral. But soon banks will start asking for their money back . At which time Musk will either have to sell his Tesla shares or make Twitter public again to repay the banks.
7 years, 60 countries, 935 internet shutdowns: a new off switch for dissent
Then do they fire people who only have 1 job but are coasting?
How does that counter work with the whole federation thing? Also is that sign ups, monthly active, monthly engaged, daily active,...?
So I guess Obama ordered the death of a citizen of his own country. So much for my defense.
The local version of this is: there are only two seasons in Michigan—winter and construction.
> unvested stock has been converted to the acquiring company's stock at the equivalent value and on the same vesting schedule.

Yes, this is common practice for good will and retention reasons. But generally not legally required.
> the new one feels subtly 'squishy' compared to the old one, and I'm wondering if they've changed the formula

Yes, newer Cherry switches are different from older switches. You'll see people in the community refer to older switches as "Vintage".

Also, if you use MX Browns, you might find you enjoy some other tactile switches more for newer boards. Browns these days generally feel a bit squishy/loose and somewhat scratchy due to the nylon components. I find I like POM stems, with minimal lubrication, and slow springs with a mid-weight (62g). Of course, all this is a matter of preference, but I'd encourage you to try some POM stem tactiles like Holy Pandas.

Edit: Glorious makes pre-made "Holy Pandas" under their own branding using the original INVYR tooling: https://www.pcgamingrace.com/products/glorious-panda-mechani...