The common narrative I see on tech forums since 24th Feb is this: "if various sanctions and blockings will make average Russians' life miserable enough (i.e. even more miserable than it already is), they will stand up and oppose the power they have been electing since 20-or-so years."

There are a few issues here:

1. Anyone who goes against the ruling power and stands up as a leader of opposition gets forcefully silenced and thrown into jail: the most popular example is Alexey Navalny. Simply put, there's not enough organizational force (i.e. absence of charismatic leader) to bring masses together.

2. The majority of Russians are in their 40-ies, have families, have government jobs, and won't risk losing the only source of income they have by opposing said government. One can call it cowardice, but to me, this is a basic survival instinct of a person who never knew a better world, who is facing a total collapse of daily systems he took for granted, and who stoically enjoys a ride into prolonged stagflation: e.g. right now bank rate is up to an all-time high of 20%, electronic prices rose by 30%, some industrial companies and small/mid-sized businesses are tanking [1] — and all of that after suffering thru the pandemic with the rest of the world.

3. There are no democratic elections in Russia (we call it "дерьмократия" in our patois, which roughly means "shit-o-cracy"). Our president's regime basically self-sustains itself, thanks to a deeply rooted corruption in upper circles and fake votes. A similar situation was in Montenegro from 1990 up until 2020, when the ruling party was overthrown because they couldn't buy enough support from abroad due to pandemic restrictions — and even that pales in comparison to what we have here.

4. The question is up in the air: even if all "goes well", who will come after Putin, and will they be able to fix this mess — not just in Russia, but in the countries their predecessor damaged? I don't know of any strong candidate capable of dragging us back from what is essentially imposed 90-ies and zeitgeist of post- Soviet Union collapse. It's like an existential fog of war all over the Earth.

—//—

[1]: As a case in point: England denied shipment of certain electronic components to Russia; a city-forming enterprise in my small hometown is a factory that produces fire-resistant materials and relies on these components. These materials are made from basalt, a certain type of volcanic rock abundant here in the Ural region — and this stuff (esp. when mixed up with other minerals) can be quite toxic, causing breathing problems and allergic reactions (I as a teenager had a part-time job on the factory, and had ulcers open up on my skin that contacted basalt dust particles). Basically, if something breaks there right now, no one will be able to fix it; and not only people will lose their jobs, but this may end up in a local ecological catastrophe.

By the same token, the neighboring town is Sverdlovsk-45: a closed city housing a plant producing uranium-238. Imagine if something goes boom there because of the disrupted infrastructure/supply chain. I understand that this sounds quite exaggerated — yet I cannot but keep "entertaining" myself with such thoughts since last week, all while being ashamed of myself for simply being born in this place.