This doesn't seem a sign of strength, it's weird that it's translated to English though.

Russia greatly missed their approach to Ukraine. Because of gray zone tactics, Russian approval rate within east-Ukraine dropped from 54% to 14% and Ukraine got ( over the years) more efficient resisting those tactics.

This is a propaganda piece, because Ukrainians and Russians have a reasonable amount of relatives on both sides as far as I know. The risk he's taking is considerable, not only from externally but also internally.

As a reference, Ukraine has a population of 44 million and Russia of 144 million. The Ukrain independence referendum ( with 92% in favor) was in 1991, which isn't even 1 generation ago. That's a big variable to take into account.

Not only could fleeing Russians that they migrated become anti-Russia ( they received 10 k. Roebels =114$ to move from their home, which almost seems as a bad joke).

They could be cut off from any sort of trade happening to them, which would decimate their economy with unforeseen consequences.

Be aware that Russia has roughly the GDP of Spain and a huge area to maintain. They spend 6% to military and their GDP is declining + Europe ( and the world) is slowly abandoning natural resources.

But they currently have money reserves from record prices the last years.

Additionally, the last year there have been uprisings in Belarus and Kazakhstan, one of the few remaining partners of Russia that originated from the USSR.

There is serious unrest within Russia too, Navalny is currently in jail after the poisoning attack failed and they were able to document every step of the Russian agents in detail.

I think the mishandling of the vaccine ( the entire world wants Pfizer and Sputnik had a lot of production issues + bribes associated with it) didn't increase any influence, much to their dislike ( they were very quick to claim "dibs" without sufficient clinical trials ).

Additionally, the very low vaccination rate is "proof" to me that there is great distrust in the government and that the propaganda isn't working as well as many belief.

Putin is highly disturbed by this all and I think he wants to set an example to reduce problems. But I think he will just make it worse.

Important note: One of the main root causes of this entire situation is that Ukraine could render Russia's entire naval fleet useless, since it's highly dependent on the Black Sea that is overlapping, almost completely, with Ukraine. Which was the main goal of the "gray zone war", occupying East-Ukraine.

He's definitely been planning this for a long time:

- increasing propaganda

- increasing cyber attacks

- military experience over different countries ( Afghanistan, Syria, ... )

- decoupling of the west

- closer ties to china

- testing internet isolation ( similar to the great firewall)

- testing war responses in countries of Europe over the years.

- ...

I believe they prefer to act now, now that Europe is still sufficiently dependent on Russia. But we ( Europe) are 35% of their GDP because of gas imports.

They are also frustrated with Nordstream 2 that hasn't been completed. .

But I think, all in all, this is a position of weakness and not of strength and he's trying to change something while he can.

I don't know if they really want to invade Ukraine though.

Some part of me thought that they were bluffing and wanted to weaken US influence by calling them out and in the end that they would not attack. But the military presence and shelling are severely countering that opinion.

Just my 2 cents. I'd be glad to hear where I'm wrong or other opinions.