skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Show HN: Create your own prediction market in two minutes
Hi HN! Excited to show off the project we've been working on for the last couple months. We started with an idea for a crazy twist on prediction markets: You come up with a question for traders to predict, and then decide the outcome yourself.

For example, you could create a market on “Will my date with [X] go well?” Anyone can bet on it, and the bets create a forecast on the chance your date goes well. After the date is over, you get to judge the result and reward the traders who picked the correct side.

There are so many ways for this mechanism to go wrong: the creator of the market can be dishonest in deciding the outcome, or you may just disagree with their resolution, with no recourse. Nevertheless, we pitched user-created prediction markets in a grant proposal to the blog Astral Codex Ten, and somehow we won!

Since then, it’s been an exciting two months of us hacking away to realize this idea, and now we’re happy to announce the official launch of Manifold Markets! We’ve gotten so much support from early users who are just as passionate about prediction markets as we are.

You might ask: Is there a reason to create a prediction market, and not a Twitter poll? Are outcomes really that different from a simple person-by-person vote?

We believe so. The magic driving prediction markets is accountability. When wagering a scarce currency, those proven right live on to make future bets, whereas those with less-savvy bets have their influence diminished. Prediction markets succeed because they reward accuracy, and that makes all the difference!

Our goal is to make prediction markets an order of magnitude easier for you to create and share. It should be as frictionless as a Twitter poll. As part of that philosophy, we’re launching with a play money currency, which we believe is just as fun and predictive.

We’ve already built up a passionate community of predictors and market creators, including writers like Richard Hanania and James Medlock, who have predicted everything from CDC recommendations to newsletter subscriptions to fatal shark attacks.

There’s so much unexplored space to ask questions and get valuable forecasts. For example, with conditional markets, you can create several related markets that help you make a choice based on which has the highest likelihood of success!

Let us know if you have any thoughts or suggestions; otherwise, looking forward to what markets you create!
It's an interesting sci-fi thought, but why wouldn't the second spaceship just catch up with the first one and pick up the passengers to avoid their unnecessary travel time?
> Telegram desktop app is awesome.

I think I tried it at one point and didn't dislike it. I multiboot linux and windows and from day one it felt very comfortable to have a sticky telegram tab in my eternal browser session on both OS that behave the same.
> ...humanity is not there yet.

Especially with the dogmatic left at the helm.
I kind of love this idea.

It reminds me of a redis use case we had at a former employer.

We had a cluster with a high double digit number of nodes that delivered a lot of data to various external APIs.

Some of those APIs required some metadata along with the payload. That metadata was large enough that it had made sense to cache it in Redis. But over time, with growth the cluster got large enough, and high volume enough that just fetching that data from Redis was saturating the 10Gbps Nic on the ElastiCache instance, creating a significant scaling bottleneck. (I don't remember if we moved up to the 25Gbps ones or not.)

But we could have just as easily done a local cache (on disk or something) for this metadata on each node and avoided the cost of the ElastiCache and all the scaling and operational issues. It would have also avoided the network round trips to Redis, and the whole thing probably would have just performed better.
Glad you enjoyed the post - I hadn't considered this.
This is really important; collateral means nothing if lender cannot act. I am not from the US but at least I had partners do this in the past a few times; the lender wanted 3x the amount in equity (shares can drop especially in startups), the equity had to be transferable and the guys had to personally sign and if married, their partners too (shares can become $0, especially in startups). The interest rate was quite good, but one of my friends is still paying it off over a decade later which got him into all kinds of issues with his relationship and family.
The 1997 F-150 made 220bhp and got 18mpg [0], while the 2022 F-150 makes 400bhp and 19mpg [1], so fusion is doing way better than that!

(...i think i chose comparable trim levels to do that comparison, there are a stunning number of choices there!)

[0] https://www.cars.com/research/ford-f_150-1997/specs/103719/
[1] https://www.edmunds.com/ford/f-150/2022/features-specs/
Google for Startups Cloud Program
The biggest problem of EarPods is that when it doesn't fit the ear canal, it *really* doesn't fit. There's no way to sort of make it stay inside; it just slides out like a skateboard. I have such ears, and earpods are simply useless to me.

The cable is also quite fragile in my experience. The material gets sticky after a few years and it sometimes frays.

On the other hand, I have a pair of UE that has gone through washing machine and still going strong after 7 years.
I am so for this, being the sole developer in my company for the last 10 years I introduced far to many “moving parts” as it grew and I’m now going through the process of simplifying it all.

I love Redis but it’s next to go, currently used for user sessions and a task queue, both of which Postgres is more than capable of doing [0]. Also, as a mostly Python backend, I want to rip out a couple of Node parts, shrink that Docker image.

0: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21536698
Fair warning: this response is an advertisement for ycombinator
The proper solution would be for Go tooling to integrate the Software Heritage archive. Here is the code for the "v1.5.1" tag:

https://archive.softwareheritage.org/api/1/directory/da02f8b...

You can schedule archival of any odd revision, and look it up later either by content checksum or by revision.
> What makes you think it will be any more politically viable to scale out than fission reactors?

IIRC a major difference would be the danger potential in case of a "meltdown", since a fusion reactor wouldn't have kilograms or even tons of uranium etc. laying around to form another elephant's foot but "just" the irradiated reactor vessel which AIUI is both not as dangerous or as long-lived as fission fuel, a fission reactor itself and fission waste products.

Also IIRC the actual "meltdown" of a fusion reactor would involve the reaction environment (extremely high temperatures and pressures) breaking down at which point the reaction stops almost immediately no longer producing any additional radiation or waste products, leaving only the already irradiated reactor vessel to deal with since the comparatively tiny volume of reactant(s) (probably one or more different Hydrogen isotopes) and reaction product(s) (probably Helium) will escape quickly and with pretty much no harm done.
So, let me clarify.

You claim your vocab is sufficiently large that you should have known all the words, and as you suggest, exhibit a strong bias towards male-known words illuminated by the study, and therefore suspect the entire dataset is fraudulent because you didn't recognize the female-familiar words?

Is this satire? "Study showing males don't know certain things deemed completely fraudulent by person on internet technology forum. 'I would have known those things if they were real', claims person of unknown gender known as 'errcorrectcode' on forum 'hacker news'."
As others have pointed out, ITER has this kind of funding, and it is not the only nuclear fusion research program. It is unclear whether more money will accelerate.

As for green R&D in general, the EU is massively investing in hydrogen research, as something that can be made with excess variable solar and wind power, and be used as a green alternative to natural gas in many situations.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mariannelehnis/2021/12/31/the-e...
I recognized it because I once destroyed a couch fabric in a rented apartment and had to choose a replacement. It’s as bad as choosing js framework, but you’re not a tech guy on top of that.
what about contamination? urine is not always sterile upon elimination from the body, potentially bringing along bacterial, drug, and other contaminants.
So you think as long as the user can choose to leave, the platform is no an intermediary. I strongly disagree. Even if the user theoretically can choose, we have to consider the asymmetric information, high switching cost, and monopoly power that are so prevalent nowadays. I choose not to use the big email providers, but most people can't do the same.
I think males and females reproduce the same way.
> We consider a 2XX (Success) and 3XX (Redirection) status codes successful

I feel like this is flawed, especially considering 1/2 of the successful responses were 3XX. It's possible that they had just linked a short URL that was a redirect, but it's also possible that the product was shuttered and a redirect put in place to a replacement product, the company homepage, or even an acquiring company. I don't think there is an easy way to tell based just on the response code, and I'm not sure you could even programmatically determine it unless you had samples of what the pages looked like on launch day (maybe compare today vs the Internet Archive?).
Anyone have advice for getting to the interview in the first place?
Please ignore if this takes us off-topic, but is this a case for micropayments, done via cryptocurrency? Because I think a successful implementation of micropayments might solve for this.

I don't want to subscribe to any regular news, but I'd be happy to click a button that gives $.25 to the author/site.

That doesn't work with CC fees, but if micropayments done via crypto (there are many with low/no transaction costs).
Would you please stop posting unsubstantive comments, flamebait comments, and ideological battle comments to Hacker News? You've been doing it repeatedly. We've asked you to stop many times over many years.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29212633 (Nov 2021)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26418766 (March 2021)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25563542 (Dec 2020)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22050749 (Jan 2020)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20356769 (July 2019)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20350618 (July 2019)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20054704 (May 2019)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18797087 (Dec 2018)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18114166 (Oct 2018)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18034335 (Sept 2018)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17517586 (July 2018)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14577510 (June 2017)

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13970380 (March 2017)

At some point, we're going to have to stop cutting you all this slack and ban you. I don't want to ban you, because you also post good comments. But the damage caused by your bad comments is not ok, and we need you to take care of this.

If you wouldn't mind reviewing https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and taking the intended spirit of the site more to heart, we'd be grateful.
> "The nation, it says, must sustain excellence in basic research; foster a scientific workforce more diverse in race, gender, and geography; and support high-quality precollege science and math education. The board also calls for forging closer ties between academia and industry, keeping borders open to promote international partnerships, and promoting ethical research practices."

The reality they don't want to address is the corporatization of many fields of academic science (entire chemistry departments at many schools are now little more than R&D divisions for the major pharmaceutical corporations, for example). This clearly impacts the goal of "excellence in basic research" as that requires social academic norms like the open sharing of research tools and data. Basic research tends not to generate patents until years later, so it becomes a non-priority for the 'academic-industrial partnership' crowd (i.e. the startup types) - and yet the report supports 'forging closer ties between academia and industry'! Industry has plenty of cash, they can set up privately financed Bell Labs 2.0 and reap all the patents without relying on federal agency money, which should go to basic research.

The issue of atrocious public education through high school in the USA, such that often students have to spend one or two years in college on remedial work developing acceptable math and writing skills, can only be addressed by spending more money on education: getting better teachers by increasing salaries, and reducing class sizes by explanding schools, particularly in low-income areas. As far as related diversity issues, note there's been great progress in that area, for example CalTech didn't even accept female students in the 1960s, and today the student population is roughly equivalent gender-wise.
It could be considered such, if you file a lawsuit. No one else seems to be, so until it reaches a judge, I don’t know if you’ll see any response.
I have a friend who does this with companies that he finds morally repugnant, except he takes it a step further and gets free vacations out of it by having them fly him in for the onsite in New York and put him up in a nice hotel the day before and the day after. He usually walks out after a couple of hours and spends the day visiting tourist stuff.
The stakes are high, but failure is always an option. I've seen machines take years to get density under control. What the JET team has achieved is exceptional.
I think the Daily Mail is a good example and this is a reminder to never speak in absolutes.

That said, I don’t think any of those other examples pivoted the way the Times pivoted. The Times didn’t just digitize the newspaper or combine the newsrooms. It started to do real digital first and product first investments. The Cooking app, the Games vertical, the investment into audio and video, the tremendous investment in data tools for its journalists for multimedia storytelling (consider the impact of Snow Fall, even a decade later).

The Daily Mail may have successfully managed profitability, but I wouldn’t put it on par with the transformation that happened at The Times. The Times looked at the innovation happening at BuzzFeed and Mashable (where I worked for many years) and Vice and Vox and has not just been able to compete with them, I would argue that it has largely vested them. Whatever else you think of their journalism, that alone, is nothing short of remarkable. And I cannot think of another legacy media company that has transformed itself the same way.
Yes, I think so anyhow, a significant portion of rural america, particularly in the south is racially diverse - either with a significant minority population, or majority minority.

In the South, its (depending on where) Black folks, in Texas, New Mexico and Oklahoma, its Hispanic.

The fact that I see mexican/hispanic restaurants and groceries, in rural america (even in the south) tells me the world is changing.
Oh, a source[1] - this is why I'm extremely skeptical of the goodness of disrupting. Building a new competitor that can straight up out compete existing monopolies is one thing but beating existing companies by refusing to play by the same rules removes the power of law from society.

It was super depressing at the time to hear the Libertarian crowd come out in staunch defense of this program.

1. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/uber-uses-secret-pr...
I dearly hope so. Housing is for people, not corporations. I would like to see the introduction of zoning laws that accomplish this.
DNS alias mode:

* https://dan.langille.org/2019/02/01/acme-domain-alias-mode/

* https://github.com/acmesh-official/acme.sh/wiki/DNS-alias-mo...

* https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2018/02/technical-deep-dive-se...

You want the name "internal.example.com". In your external DNS you create a CNAME from "_acme-challenge.internal.example.com" and point it to (e.g.) "internal.example.net" or "internal.dns-auth.example.com"

When you request the certificate you specify the "dns-01" method. The issuer (e.g., LE) will go to the the external DNS server for the look up, see that it is a CNAME and then follow the CNAME/alias, and do the verification at the final hostname.

So your ACME client has to do a DNS (TXT) record update, which can often be done via various APIs, e.g.:

* https://github.com/AnalogJ/lexicon

You can even run your own DNS server locally (in a DMZ?) if your DNS provider does not have an convenient API. There are servers written for this use case:

* https://github.com/joohoi/acme-dns

* https://github.com/joohoi/acme-dns-certbot-joohoi

* https://github.com/pawitp/acme-dns-server
This also assumes that the interviewee has the "right" ethics. From their perspective, yes wasting time in an interview is ethically good to them.

But outsiders may agree with the interviewers ethics, and would see wasting their time as unethical.
I occasionally check TikTok to see what it's like. I notice quite a bit of very "pro-China" type propaganda; idyllic Chinese farmers teaching their kids, muscular Chinese male athletes, etc.

Very much a tool to influence Western users and thought.
Coming back a day later, now that I've finished "Data and Reality", to say the very last pages of the book are "About Bill Kent".

In particular, it gives a reference to Bill's web site http://www.bkent.net, which includes a list of his personal and academic [1] writing over 35 years.

I was actually astonished to find his web site still running, 17 years after his death in 2005. How many of our own digital artefacts will have such longevity?

[1] http://www.bkent.net/catalogsource.htm
i did one session of the system design interview, it was a good way to check my interviewing skills and what i needed to improve on. The most effective way to use this service is for yourself to study your ass of first then just use one or two sessions to validate that.
I agree it's a strong word, which is why I said borderline nefarious. However, it's not that far off from a DDOS tool.

At least in the United States, sounds like the jury is still out on the legality: https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-supreme-court-revives-..., but my perspective was more from an ethics standpoint anyway.
I didn't know about Paul Allen, but after searching it seems the top result is about how they managed to regain some friendship: https://www.geekwire.com/2019/bill-gates-patched-things-paul...

I know very little about Gates but can only find information indicating Epstein wanted to do business with him under the guise of it being a great benefit to charity, which in the end turned out to be a ruse of some sort. Perhaps it's untrue, but I don't see damning evidence. There are photos, but surely there are hundreds or thousands of photos of Epstein with people. Is there something that you know that I'm not finding?
Our User-Mode WireGuard Year
They're not following our definition of the word. OTA is being used for the update, just as with the previous "California stop" "recall". This whole concept is fairly new, so it shouldn't be surprising that a large bureaucracy is a bit behind.
Maybe "femtosecond" was used by Danish scientists in the 1800's or something, but it's definitely not a word that was common in another language and then imported into English.

Worth noting that by the percentages here fewer than 50% of males surveyed were familiar with it.
I don't think that's the distinction being made. It sounds like the commenter is making the distinction that the satellites' electronics were not damaged by magnetic fields (which is what a reader might assume from the headline).
Square sells hardware, but losing money on that. I don't believe it is intended to compete with payment processors providing hardware, but more so commoditizes it/flattens existing players in cases where a POS terminal system isn't needed.
Personally staking my own future on this "less is more" approach having seen some serious horror flicks in terms of app/infrastructure stacks the past few years.

What continues to surprise me: a lot of time and money has been or is being wasted on reinventing the wheel (speaking specifically about webdev here).

There are a ton of great tools out there that are battle-tested (e.g., my favorite find of late as someone just digging into hand-rolled—meaning no k8s/docker/etc—infrastructure is haproxy).
I wouldn't have a nationalized filter.

I'd require any US site, including search engines, to provide their own age verification system.
> the owner of 99% Invisible

Nit: he sold it.

https://www.theverge.com/2021/4/26/22403852/siriusxm-roman-m...
I've been working on a book to teach kids data parallel distributed computing with Python and PySpark (Distributed Computing 4 Kids), if anyone wants an early review copy let me know :)

or give your e-mail at https://www.distributedcomputing4kids.com/ :)
I have a few friends in the industry and their whole process just seems nuts. They earn good money from overtime but I'd just be so annoyed doing so much throwaway work even though a lot of it just seems like it could be avoided with planning, time management and more honest pricing when it comes to sub contracting.
ProductHunt was simply a way for bootcamp graduates to express themselves during the frontend JS hype cycle of 2014-2018
Ok, noted, but my LLC maintains dollar bank accounts in the US, so from QuickBooks perspective I thought I I’m no different from any other customer.

I’ve done my research, and my LLC is also considered a disregarded entity, and thus tax exempt, although there are reporting obligations.
I mostly agree. Having a healthy browser landscape is important for user privacy and accessible/equitable access to the internet, but I'm not seeing the evidence as to why that same argument extends to multiple independent engine implementations.

The computing world would be better off if governance of Blink/V8/etc were handed over to a neutral third party. Similar to Linux. Chrome, Edge, Safari, Firefox, Brave, etc can all still exist and differentiate on the implementation, just like how Amazon Linux differentiates with Ubuntu.
> just that it minimizes the attack surface

I stopped using multiple browser for exactly that purpose. It actually increases your attack surface. While compartmentalization of browsers helps somewhat against tracking you now have to keep all of them updated. RCE bug in one of them already compromises everything you have on your machine, so having multiple browsers just means the attacker can pick from a wider array of targets.
What makes this "semantic code commenting"
Nobody is saying that you need to be a perfect moral paragon. But having a documented close relationship with the most famous and powerful pedophile isn’t something you can gloss over. His departure from the MS over inappropriate conduct seems to paint a pattern: this is a powerful guy who abused his power over women repeatedly and it’s worth calling that out.

(Please no whataboutism; yes there are probably worst billionaires than him; yes all of them should be held to account for their actions).