skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Absolutely correct. Measured in log wealth (call it growth, or utility, or whatever you want), insurance is sometimes a net gain -- even if the straight arithmetic expectation would indicate it's a loss.

I forget who, but one person I respect a lot in risk management said that "the only surprising thing about insurance is that people don't get more of it."

But of course, it's not always a net gain. And even a rule of thumb like "for expensive things insure, otherwise don't" has problems. That rule would have lead me to get unemployment insurance, but doing the numbers I realised it would be a net loss, even considering the Kelly criterion.

You have to make the computations each time to bet rationally.
When not in a meeting?
Wayback Machine link, just in case: https://web.archive.org/web/20220209050643/https://ounapuu.e...
I have to ask, why do Americans always refer to radio stations with a 4-letter code? Most places are just the frequency and the station name (94.2 The Rock, 98.8 Radio Hauraki, etc) but I'm pretty sure every single time I have seen an American refer to a radio station they say something like "KUOW 94.9".
to save you a click: there is no witchcraft in the blog post.

there is only a library called witchcraft.

its goal is to function as a Haskell-alike within Elixir.
I agree - I also feel like it would be dumb luck to have been born in the place best suited for me. I’d rather experience a few places that seem appealing and then pick one. Life of course gets in the way but that’s been my way so far. With young kids and getting more responsibilities I think it’s time to slow down and settle for a while.
Well there is the whole money printing thing. I think that’s fundamentally the problem at Bitcoin solved, along with the whole decentralized value transfer. It’s fundamentally libertarian technology; along with public key cryptography and peer to peer file sharing. I think the anti-coiners on here miss the forest for the trees.
> When I first moved to Seattle 40 years ago, there was one company that advertised on the radio all the time, The Sxxxx Company (you Seattlites know who that is).

That's the trick. Everyone in the country knows them, but thinks they're local because the ads are so boring. It's a chain!
That is disturbing, what makes you think so? Ukraine and Taiwan situations?
It's interesting psychologically. I could go and bet my whole life savings on red on the roulette wheel, but the odds are completely explicit and I can at least trust the casino not to bend the truth on how roulette works. But my family and friends would think I'm an idiot for making such a reckless bet.

But if I go down a rabbit hole on social media with thousands of users creating a convincing and self-reinforcing narrative that Fartcoins are going to the moon, then I can spend my life savings on Fartcoins and convince myself it's a sound investment.

Who is at fault here? Who do you regulate to stop people losing their life savings?
Somehow this article seem to make the mistake that "experts" are all just spending their time making predictions, and not spending anytime doing research and experimentation to acquire more data and evidence.

Most experts in most fields spend their time doing research and experimentation, in order to acquire knowledge and build a corpus of understanding that makes that 99.9% into a 80%, a 50%, a 20%, a 1%, etc.

The only "experts" making projections tend to be fake experts, they'll actually be policy makers, investors, marketeers, etc. (yes sometimes they'll hire an expert statistician to waste his time help them with such foolishness)

And ounce those people enter the game, they'll pester the real experts ad nauseam for estimates and for predictions, and at first the expert will say well more research/experimentation is needed. But the fake experts will say, ok, but ballpark, just an estimate, what do you think is most likely happening here? So the expert will say, ok, give me some time to really run the numbers and make sure at least I'm giving you accurate statistics. But the fake experts will pester some more, I need it by end of day, just tell me now, why would it take you so long. Eventually the experts will just make it up so that the fake experts leave them alone and they can go back to doing real work like research/experimentation/development, etc.

And this in my opinion invalidates the claims in the article. Because those experts cannot be replaced by a rock. The reason they'll be doing the same work as the rock, is because non-experts are going to want them to do so, by asking them the question the rock could answer, and refusing any answer that is probabilistic, they want certainty, not possibility. And to those people, it matters very much that the expert said so, because in the expert they trust, in the expert they can scape goat their failures, they did not make the decision, the expert did. A rock does not provide them with plausible deniability.
You're asking a silly question. States use data indiscriminately, whether it was "accidentally" gathered or not. Ultimately, it's not really accidentally gathered. There is pressure to over-collect.
I build tools other people are free to use. I have historically refused to implement tools to be used for censorship purpose. Here, you're free to invest/yolo.. or not.
Sure. The issue is that there is a way of interpreting this headline that the satellites can be easily damaged by electromagnetic storms. But actually these satellites were only vulnerable because they had not achieved their normal orbit and the thing that affected them was the atmosphere, not the radiation. People could assume the whole constellation could be easily damaged, but that is not implied by this scenario.
How about linking to the original source rather than a poor copy? https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/ld4vlq/gabbard_diagr...

Also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aRUaENzxH44
> The carbon impact of just one launch is pretty obscene.

It isn’t really. Checkout Everyday Astronaut’s take on it:
https://youtu.be/C4VHfmiwuv4
How the fuck can there be a fee for "e-file" it should be the opposite if anything.

I live in Sweden. Yeah, that country. Not only do we have a bank issued digital identity our revenue service has a online system for doing your taxes and it takes less than 10 minutes.

If you buy/sell stocks using ISK and have a mortgage all of that is manage for you. You just review the numbers and sign of on it (using your digital identity). Then you get your returns.

The US tax system is perplexing to me.
Mozilla fixes Firefox bug letting you get Windows admin privileges
This is also my take on this issue. The company just wants to monetize on remote meeting and has no malicious intention on user privacy, but they just mess up the security from time to time. It is not sound that selling user data can make them better off.

Another infamous example is proctoru. Literally a spyware, but delivering a spyware requires much less effort (both intellectually and financially) compared to designing a product that makes security-savy customers happy.
Ah, went back to your parent comment and I apologize for my missing your original comment.

In my defense, my point still stands and it's a knee-jerk response to many here who equate BLM with violence, period. The detractors have done an excellent job in smearing the movement.

As to property damage, I recognize that there are understandable situations where that can occur but the real value is in the possibility of shit getting out of control vs mayhem on tap.

Public protest is an important civic action and those that work to undermine it should not be tolerated.
Quite literally, and the primary reason The Press is written, by name, into the US Constitution.
Great, another feature that will save dozens to hundreds of lives (disproportionately of young children) every year, while adding only a few bucks to the bill of materials for cars that already have a display screen.
I don't think OP said the market can't do unexpected things, just that there is no information to act out of the ordinary.

Take your example 2008, how would you use that information from the past to time the stock market today? Unless you have some information the rest of us don't have, you could be sitting on S&P Put options for the next 10 years.

The (few) people who profited in 2008 realized the subprime mortgages were rotten to the core before any media or masses knew what a subprime mortgage was.

This isn't comparable to the information we all have today that covid is here, interest is high, and russia is teeing up the border, which is already priced in.
I'd almost agree if not for the fact that the warning was ignored. And that ESA had to move their satellites because Elon Must thinks his satellites are more important than others.

So, what were the reasons? Hubris could be a reason.
The thing that's not being well conveyed to people here is the storm didn't cause any satellite failure. The storm caused an expansion of the atmosphere which prevented re-orientation and orbit raising. The satellites are still functioning fine.
Huh, TIL (and relevant username). Thank you for the correction. I noticed the article says they only admitted fault for the second crash, do you know what happened with the first? Did Boeing admit fault for that too?
> You're citing the cost of 1% of the network against the entire network's function. It's more like 750 "flights worth."

Well you opened up by talking about "just one launch".

> To provide internet service to ~250,000 people - about one quarter the population of a major east coast city.

But people who are currently very hard to supply internet to and extremely car-dependent. Building housing in cities would probably be a better solution, and I'm all for efforts to make that legal, but realistically it's going to be extremely difficult to overcome upper-middle-class opposition to that and so other ways to mitigate the impact of those people's lifestyles are very much worthwhile.

> Starlink is horrifically bad for the environment compared to ground-based infrastructure. As witnessed by the very high cost of Starlink service, which is likely losing mountains of cash despite that.

On the contrary, running cable to many of these places would be overwhelmingly environmentally damaging (in many cases you'd have to build a road through a forest or blast through a mountain), and that's reflected in the high (sometimes infinite) cost of internet services. People are buying Starlink because it's cheaper (in the places they live) than ground-based alternatives, and as you've observed, the environmental cost is generally closely correlated to the monetary cost.

> That's not how that works.

That's exactly how it works. You've got to look at the net impact. For people who don't travel internationally, reducing car usage is the most effective single lifestyle change they can make to reduce carbon impact; if Starlink reduces trips to the extent that e.g. people shift from a two-car to a one-car household, that's huge. (And note that if it's reducing travel into towns or cities then that's benefitting the rest of us as well, by reducing congestion and parking usage, which in turn lets us turn more land over to productive uses).
What I mean is "what's been made necessary as a result of the technology that drives much of the functioning of society".
Any time Musk comes up on twitter people are quick to hate him. He is a polarizing figure and while there are reasons to criticize him, there are also a lot of people who will happily misinterpret anything so they can perceive him as failing. So any negative story about Musk, correct or not, is emotionally satisfying to those people. Basically the stories come out because the crowd eats them up.
That gives an explanation but doesn’t actually answer the question - “why is it doing this when I’m not using zoom”

Plenty of people use conference rooms for non video chat reasons, and many of those reason have confidentiality rules.

I know for example there are strict rules around what is required to protect client/lawyer confidentiality, and most of the protection goes out the window if you record, or allow some one else to record them. Would zoom listening in on that count? I have no idea

The only class of apps that have any business using a microphone while not in active use are “assistants”, and those have no business doing anything other than listening for their initiator phrase (except haven’t they all been caught sending arbitrary recordings to their parent company?)
Hmmm I didn't add anything specific for IPv6, could be something related to Heroku (where my app is hosted). Can you share an IPv6-only host with me so that I can run some tests?
Might be a bug involving the station's broadcast of and/or the stereo's support for https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_frequency
Interesting, thanks! I've seen the movie 100 times and never considered the relationship between what Bruce Willis ends up doing re MW and the CW speech...

(There is a funny "how it should have ended" that makes fun of how he left such an important watch in the care of his flakey girlfriend in the first place)
Warning: The above comment is some spam/scam.
or just enter someone else's email. i like using page@google.com
yeah you would think if it was so useful they could have planned an experiment like this. maybe it's illegal to set of underwater explosions on purpose for a research institute?
The key is to always be stimulating your mind with new experiences, new concepts, new surroundings, think through confusions, solve holes in your understanding, make something etc. etc..

Travel ticks some of those boxes so it does absolutely help the mind. You can tick some of the other boxes from home as well.

Life passes by really, really fast if you do the same thing and think the same way every single day. It will make you restless, anxious over time too because your mind really doesn't like that kind of confinement.
This is a common misconception. The Kelly criterion maximises growth when the wealth compounds multiplicatively. It makes no assumption about the shape of utility.

In other words, it's prescriptive, not descriptive. The Kelly criterion says that if you want to maximise growth, you should adopt log utility. If you don't have log utility, you won't maximise growth.

(Though, as you point out, maximising growth isn't the only goal possible -- limiting drawdown is another useful goal. The linear combination of "no bet" and "full Kelly" is an optimal frontier that maximises growth given a particular limit to drawdown.)
There is no reason to trust the government, any government, which is why the Bill of Rights limits the US government’s power over citizens and the press.
I am a beginner when it comes to ZFS, but isn’t “no moving data” as an axiom a good choice? Any error that may happen during would destroy that data - while without moving it will likely be recoverable even with a dead harddrive.
>fairly long passwords

how long are we talking?
For me personally the combination of immigrating permanently to Europe plus remote work gave me an ever-changing box, in a good way. There’s lots of very different cultures just a drive away, and remote work lets me head out often and for extended stays. Even the last couple years which were a big damper on travel, I never got bored of my new home in the Netherlands or felt stuck in a routine. I’ve been here for six years now, probably three here and three in other nearby countries on extended visits.

I’m sure the cartoon resonates with some people but I don’t think it’s as universal as they are making it seem. I hope it doesn’t convince people not to at least try to see if travel or living overseas makes life richer and more interesting.

I will say I wasn’t trying to cure anything wrong with my mind when moving overseas, so maybe that’s a difference I’m not properly accounting for.
Yeah, it’s ridiculously well made. I’m not disputing that. The protocol is weird but they built a great app on top of that.

They just cannot be sustainable long term. There is literally no restriction size-wise on data you can save on their servers. For free. And they have basically no income. They have some new ad program with basically no tracking (which is good for users, sure, but nobody will pay that much for that). They get 0 commissions from payment (and I never heard anyone using their payment thing). TON went nowhere.
What’s going on with this comment? Do you trust the government? Why?
How is it anything but the truth? The express purpose of static analysis, like a type system, is to catch bugs before running your code. That pretty clearly means that code that successfully compiles is closer to being correct than code that doesn't.
They mentioned in their video about it how TrueNAS does do this correctly but they had manually set up this particular system on a normal distro.
The way to reduce variance is to keep some of your wealth out of the equation. In other words, put half of your money to the side, and then apply the Kelly criterion to that which remains.

This is a "fractional Kelly" strategy, which optimises growth under the condition that you want to reduce variance.
Did they not partner with TSMC?

IIRC, Apple wanted Intel to fab their silicon, but Intel refused. It’s only since Gelsiner took over that Intel is open to fabbing other designs.
What is the other way of doing it?

Because this “hack”:

* Works on devices without Bluetooth (or that have it disabled)

* doesn’t require anyone installing privileged software or drivers

* gives a very good “in the same room” indicator

* doesn’t require any custom/expensive hardware components
I remember reading a study here on HN many years ago that spoke of tests of different patterns of seating and loading people BEFORE they boarded.

The idea being that people took assigned seating in an optimally layed out lounge gate seating area and then shuffled in, in order.

Loosely loading people on the left in even isles and on the right in uneven isles also reduced congestion.
Like most advertising before targeting. Not so much a scam though, more a theater performance.
you're getting a ton of criticism, but I have two cars, and only one has a backup camera. I reverse more safely in the car with no backup camera.

I've caught myself just backing up without thinking about it in the car with the backup camera. never done that in the old-school mirrors car.

I don't know if there are any studies that back up backup cameras.
Why run the Zoom app at all? It works perfectly well in a browser.
For the attacker, the problem isn't about protecting the crypto but to launder.

If gov got to you, it probably doesn't matter how well you got it protected.
Having n way to answer "why shouldn't I..." for yourself is no small thing. Don't take it lightly. Many people are incapable of defending themselves. Why shouldn't you...?
I don't have any problem cashing in my 6 figures paycheck when pezzonavantes (from any side since forever) cash out 9 to 10 figures own scams.

Honesty is for the poor.
A hacker? On Hacker News? Well, I would never.
(1) You having money and being fine means you have the power to leave.

(2) You cannot explain away 2008 as being the fault of the people who couldn't pay their mortgage. WTAF dude.

What I'm getting from this is that you have wrapped yourself up in a nice blanket of ignorance and a nice comfy salary, and while you have come to the conclusion that the business you're engaging in is fraudulent, you've convinced yourself that anybody but you is responsible. Participating makes you responsible. If you don't have the scruples to leave something like that and have no financial pressure to stay, then you don't deserve any work in tech when the dust settles. I for one would never hire you.
If you are using a USB microphone (and/or webcam), you can effectively do that with one of these:

4-Port USB 3.0 Hub Power Switches
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00TPMEOYM
>This is in no way exclusive to Apple.

Perhaps not, but on most Intel laptops (especially those with comparable form factors to an air or pro), you're probably at least going to have a fan spinning up playing 4k60 content.
That’s correct. Which is a shame.
Sun-shipped 64-bit Solaris has 32 bit int and it's in the LP64 column of the Wikipedia table. The entry of a ILP64 HAL systems version is about this other niche Solaris port for HAL designed chips that was not commonly used in universities (or anywhere, for that matter).
Facebook falls behind Nvidia in market cap
At least it isn't advertising.

Hi, some 73% of hackernews readers.
> It's what, 15 aeroplane flights' worth?

Try a single aeroplane?
You apparently did not read the article as the solar storm did not in fact knock out any satellites.
> the very high cost of Starlink service

It's $99/mo for 100+ megabit service. Sure, it's moderately expensive if you're comparing to cable service in cities. It's downright cheap compared to the cost of connecting the extremely rural customers Starlink targets with physical cables. You don't think running a new set of physical cables to every rural residence in the world (or even cell towers to cover the same) would be expensive or have any environmental impact? Starlink wins on both and not by a small margin.

And then of course there's the prospect of bringing service to the remote mountains and jungles and deserts and polar regions and oceans where nobody lives and which will never (and should never) have ground-based infrastructure. And a bit of sorely needed competition to keep the ground-based monopoly service providers in check. And service for disaster areas or war zones where infrastructure is destroyed.
"Only a few people have ever visited Challenger Deep."

That kind of goes towards the answer of why it was useful, but also begs the question of why there haven't been more scientists there.
Your response reads to me like you think I was dunking on PHP, but I wasn't. I don't feel like PHP is a particularly great language to write a DSL-style web framework in, but that's largely because -- as I was trying to suggest with the part about "Use Composer to pull in specific packages you really need" -- modern PHP mostly just doesn't feel like it needs a framework to me. That's precisely because, as you put it, PHP was built ONLY for the web, and the language's earlier quirkiness has really been smoothed over in the last decade. I like PHP. We are closer to being in agreement than you may think. :)

(Although I might take Ruby over PHP, depending on specific circumstances. Ruby is just such a nice language, and Rails has gotten pretty darn good once it stopped being "interesting" and could settle down to making itself productive. Maybe that will one day happen with Node…)
The comic seems to be saying that travel and living overseas doesn’t even help with simple problems like being bored in your routine beyond the very short term, which doesn’t really match my personal experience at least.
Both those videos use wildly wrong numbers. There are no plans to use F9 for the entire constellation. SpaceX told the FCC they will use Starship (launch 200-400 sats at once) for the gen 2 constellation, which is 30k satellites. Thunderf00t uses AWS data transfer cost instead of actual backhaul costs. Average household uses 435GB/month and that is $52/year in backhaul cost using .01 per GB. His $10bil/year backhaul numbers imply they have 191mil subscribers to get to that cost... There are a bunch of other issues, but it's too tedious to go through it.

Someone did a write-up on all the problems with the CSS video.

https://littlebluena.substack.com/p/common-sense-skeptic-deb...