skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> The problem is the government and traditional media have been caught lying again and again.

These two things are huge. They are not monolithic entities that "lie" or "don't lie". I think a big problem is such blind cynicism. Especially when the alternatives people are turning to are hilariously worse. I'd be more sympathetic to the claim that traditional media is terrible if they weren't using that to direct influence towards crazy uncles on facebook instead.

I think many things people think are "lies" are just uncertainties. The pandemic is full of these. There are a ton of confounding variables and we don't have any perfect control groups from which to make any conclusions. Basically every big issue that gets debated by the internet armchair experts is badly affected by this: COVID severity, the effectiveness of vaccines, masks, Ivermectin. Every damn thread is full of people speaking as authoritatively as they possibly can pointing to individual studies or data points without understanding the context, scale, or confounding factors.
Where exactly do we draw the line?

I'm young, slim, healthy, unvaccinated, not tested positive for Covid once even after my housemates had it.

"There is not a single example of a country with less than 40% of the population overweight that has high death rates (over 10 per 100,000). Similarly, no country with a death rate over 100 per 100,000 had less than 50% of their population overweight"

Are we going to start banning overweight from consuming alcohol and eating fast food? They're putting tremendous pressure on our universal healthcare system, their choice to be unhealthy has an outsized effect on society; specifically the health systems that we are using as a reason to push vaccination on everyone, regardless of their risk category.

Can't you see where this mindset leads us?
Joe Biden, well known epidemiologist.

From the beginning, there has not been a COVID-19 vaccine that purported to be 100% effective. There are vanishingly few vaccines that provide 100% immunity, if for no other reason than the immune system is not perfect.

In human history, we have only completely removed 1 virus from humanity: smallpox. That is literally the only 100% effective vaccine ever produced. And even then, it is only 100% effective after the fact.
> the effects of tax loss harvesting are really only significant for a few years after acquiring the asset (since stocks tend to go up over time)

This is true only if you invest once in your life and then hold those assets forever. But if you invest every quarter then you can do TLH on those new lots individually. And since those new lots will keep coming, your TLH will always have something to work with.
> Importantly it doesn’t account for the effect of boosters and looks at pre-omicron data.

Don't just read the summary. Look at figure 1:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7104e1.htm#F1_down

There are unvaccinated, uninfected people...and then there is everyone else. Once you have been infected or vaccinated, the difference between is so small as to be academic. And as the authors note, the importance of natural infection increased over time, as the virus escaped the vaccines:

"Importantly, infection-derived protection was higher after the Delta variant became predominant, a time when vaccine-induced immunity for many persons declined because of immune evasion and immunologic waning."

To your other claim:

> other CDC studies suggest that natural immunity declines quicker than vaccine induced immunity

No. That's not what that study said. First, it followed symptomatic infection, not severe illness. As we're seeing now, Omicron pretty handily bypasses vaccine-induced immunity to cause minor illness.

Also, methodologically, the study you're citing was bad. It only gave credit for natural immunity to those people with confirmed infections, which was/is an underestimate, and made vaccines look more effective than they are. A substantial fraction of the "only vaccinated" group almost certainly had undiagnosed covid infection.
The argument I sometimes see is that censorship is justified to prevent indirect harm of misinformation. If you want to be unvaccinated, that is your choice, but posting anti-vax content may have externalities , such as convincing other ppl to not be vaxed.
Because the people making the decisions are not the same ones doing the work.
it probably corroded away... basically turning into a pile of rust. titanium seems to be not very sulfuric-acid-resistant
Data from Australia, Israel, Denmark, all highly vaccinated countries, show a very different picture, and yes, even on a per Capita basis
Problem is plasma physicists are being subsidized on their very meritorious endeavors, at the cost of 21 billion dollars. A paragraph like the one below,
also from the reference you provided, is going to bite them bitterly:

"ITER is designed to produce a ten times return on invested energy: 500 MW of fusion power from 50 MW of input heating power (Q=10). It will be the first of all fusion experiments in history to produce net energy."

As ITER is supposed to start in 2025, and imagining a successful experiment running for 10 years. Adding to this the planning, and procurement process for a possible first device, one with the "real Q" above 1, then its clear it wont be here for at least another 50 years.
A related phenomenon: developers who generate a ton of LOC, create new services willy-nilly, and adopt new technologies to cure their boredom have the greatest impact on coding norms in an organization.

Developers who solve problems with less code and less complexity, and check to see if libraries already in use have the functionality they need before adopting new ones, those developers are less visible in the codebase, and it isn't obvious that others should see them as leaders and role models.
Many of the Design Sprint brainstorming sessions I've been a part of felt superficial. I can see the value in pushing people to list out lots of ideas very quickly, to force them to explore the solution space and not get stuck on a single idea. But the output is more like idea stubs than ideas, usually a few words on a sticky note.

In the brainstorming sessions I've attended, the next stage involves the facilitator taking all of the idea stubs and grouping them together, then riffing on the idea groups. The whole process (intentionally?) feels like improv comedy. And much like improv, it often seems geared more for the enjoyment of the participants than the quality of the output.

And maybe that's ok, using brainstorming purely as a tool to circulate half-ideas and get the creative juices flowing? But in a design sprint, the brainstorming outputs are often directly used for longer term planning. I've found something like a lightweight RFC process is a much better medium for refining and discussing ideas. RFCs are usually written alone, and discussed as a group.
So true, we take the complexity for granted. It's actually a really hard problem.
If you already work remotely then just go. No need to get permission. Taxes are the same for US citizens (eventually FEIE kicks in, a benefit to you).

Unless you have a work permit in the foreign country you are either working illegally (enforcement close to nil, say you are a tourist when entering) or you have a long-stay visa that allows remote work — many countries offer such visas now. This is the digital nomad thing.

Another route is freelancing. You just keep your US bank accounts and set up a mailbox, line up clients.

I did this for six years and not one client cared where I was as long as I answered emails and phone calls promptly. I started traveling when I had a f/t remote job, I just started traveling, no one asked or cared.
Because all of the "send a newsletter to a bunch of recipients" services insist on wrapping all of the links in a message into tracking URLs so that metrics can be gathered and data harvested.

The person who posted this is likely on Turing Pi's e-mail list and they simply copied-and-pasted the link they received.
>And yes, what you're implying heavily in your posts would require some sort of conspiracy to be plausible

Look, regardless of whether what I'm saying is true, your primary argument is that it is implausible because of the logistics of organizing such a vast conspiracy. This is false. All it takes is an emergent culture to instill an implicit bias under threat of ostracization/unemployment/unpersoning and then without any overt conspiracy you will see discourse, studies, and policy all align in a single direction regardless of that direction's validity.

This is the mechanism by which authoritarian governments flourish while simultaneously oppressing their peoples. Life in the Soviet Union was miserable, but the average person would not publicly speak against their leaders. Note that I don't mean to imply that anything about the covid response is "socialist" or anything to that effect, only that emergent consensus, especially when bolstered by propaganda, can influence individuals and society to together behave in an irrational manner in an emergent, implicit fashion.

Let's try to materialize an example. Suppose that you indeed have a society which is irrationally biased in favor of the safety and efficacy of the vaccine, and you are trying to study adverse effects. Moving up the chain

1. Patients are less likely to connect adverse effects to their vaccines (e.g. it only recently came out that monthly cycles were disrupted, originally a "conspiracy theory")

2. Doctors are less likely to acknowledge that strange symptoms are related to vaccines (remember, I'm alleging that they're biased)

3. Researchers are less likely to look into adverse events, especially when from the bottom they now have substantially less data to review

4. Policymakers see this lack of evidence of adverse events as proof of safety when it is only bias which has an emergent muting effect on cataloging of adverse events. They continue to distribute "safe and effective" propaganda in good faith (no conspiracy).

5. The cycle continues.

You may not agree that this bias exists, but my point again is that none of this requires a conspiracy, only a pervasive bias.

Now remember, the phrase "safe and effective" was repeated across media from day one, long before there was ample time to gather evidence of harm. The seed of bias was planted early. I hope you'll at least acknowledge that this is far more plausible than some cooky "conspiracy theory".
yep, through cloudsync addon I manage the calendar in Thunderbird and sync contacts as well.
Ah yes, the famously well supported and not at all prone to weird bugs Wifi Ad-hoc mode.
As a long term 1Password user I can only shake my head. What are their PMs thinking?

If anybody is interested in not upgrading 1Password, maybe my SaaS https://www.daito.io/ , a web-based 2FA Authenticator, is an alternative for you and your team.
Except that it works. In fact it works for a population of 5 times our size (China). So it seems to me that the only people who have their heads up their asses are us, who seem to think that censorship is a childs model for maintaining power and influence. In our technological society censorship can work better than ever before.

Frankly, imo, in the absence of effective accountability for ones' words or deeds, censorship becomes one of the only few remaining tools for stability.
> I still think CDC does good work. Just that the leadership needs to come out clean and apologize the public for being partisan.

Why are you saying "partisan" rather than "incompetent" ? It's surely convenient to blame the institutional incompetence on a strawman "other side", but the fact of the matter is that under administrations from both Parties they've repeatedly dropped the ball.

Distributing free rapid tests and finally recommending N95's after most everyone has stopped caring about pandemic is just icing on the cake. Biden's inauguration could have been a great time to break from the previous missteps, but the political narrative of "the pandemic is over thanks to vaccines" had to play instead. Which when you think about it is from the same exact vein of overly optimistic denial as "it'll be gone by Easter", just preached to a different choir.
No, take a look at previous releases, there was even more in them:

12.0.1: https://support.apple.com/en-gb/HT212869

12.1: https://support.apple.com/en-gb/HT212978
Better than if they had nothing.
I recently read The Precipice which advocates for longtermism. I'd recommend this substack author read that book as it deals with the objections raised here.

It's true that longtermists view climate change as relatively less of a threat than other existential risks. The reason is that climate change seems unlikely to literally make humanity extinct or to trap us in an unrecoverable and inescapable bad position. Plus, climate change is relatively slow moving compared to other existential risks. The book does better than I will be about to do here in explaining this

I could see a grease fire on my kitchen stove and decide to put it out even while acknowledging that a fire is relatively less important than villains abducting me and my family and torturing us to death.
> or any other optical telescope would have been much more revolutionary

Why? JWST is pretty damn revolutionary. There's only so much you can see with visible light. You really want old and far away stuff, go infrared.
7 day intervals. Things must happen very slowly for these people if that's a short interval.

I received the same thing. Attempted to view with disabling of blockers, but same result.
I think the opitmal number of people working on a problem is somewhere between 1 and 2. The amount of communication required obviously scales very poorly, but in principle, having to explain your process to someone else functions well. I prefer pair programming to solo work, usually. I catch more bugs, and am forced to explain things to myself as I explain them to my partner.
Go: A dead-simple, no-code landing page builder
Heh, yeah, I had a Thinkpad with one of those PCMCIA cards that had the pop-out RJ-45 jack. It was great, but it was persnickety and would go "pfffbbblt" on the regular.

The best Ethernet dongle ever was the AAUI ones you used to have to use on old Macs.
Your loaded premise is that the "tooling, verification, testing" would catch this. Can you illustrate how?
What kind of rice? Do you rinse the rice first? How much rice?

How much water? Do you salt the water?
It's easy to stress over the number of things here, but remember: every org probably has a huge list of these, known-and-sitting on the backlog, so if there's this many in the changelog it means that someone actually cares enough to bring them forward vs. yet another UX refresh or something like that.
The ultimatum they placed on US/NATO last month was unattainable from the start (block Ukraine/Georgia from ascension, no NATO expansion, roll back Eastern Europe front). It certainly gave fodder both sides to trump up propaganda war machine, and an ugly gas price war (though unrelated but still opportunistic).
Deno uses SWC under the hood, so a large chunk of its TypeScript support is already coming from upstream.
The status quo is a messy conflagration where initial beliefs were the brush, a combination of mental health issues and social frustration were the trees, and the perverse incentives of engagement metrics provided the high winds.

So I'm in the awkward middle ground of believing it's counter-productive to try to shelter people from ideas but also believing that lots of people are very easy to manipulate, even so easy to manipulate that it can happen en masse and entirely by accident.

(I'm not arguing against the argument against censorship... it's just that I think the censorship issue is mostly a massive red herring when it comes to the issues that are discussed in the article.)
GPT-3 implicitly favor text written by authors from powerful social positions
U.S. Congressional testimony by a CDC Director is not substantive?

The 2nd point offers a financial incentive for families to agree with hospital (mis)classification, i.e. it aligns the financial incentives of family and hospital towards Covid attribution.
Block chrome too, redirect to Firefox.
interesting, thanks for the tip
Just when I think the article is about to get interesting...it ends.
Your ~half estimate is more like 70-80% these days. See https://covidestim.org/us

(This makes your case stronger, of course.)
I buy all my developers new MacBook Pro's every 18 months. Partly b/c I am (was) a developer and also I understand time/value/money and there is ZERO point in wasting time because of a few $1,000 laptop over a couple years.
> Its almost incomprehensible to analyze unless you're in healthcare billing.

Considering that hospitals seem (anecdotal evidence only) to fuck up their own billing codes like 20% of the time, I'm not even sure that's enough.
I meant that an implementation of HTTP is massively more complex than an implementation of Gemini.

> You can accomplish the same URL transparency by using a file extension convention. E.g. “https://foo.com/my log.gemini”

The extension shouldn't be `.gemini` it should be `.this-is-not-malware-i-super-pinky-promise`

Just kidding. The problem is you can't enforce a mere "convention" against malicious actors.
The numbers are equal now with the new variant.
When we think about the time value of money, we're thinking about the value of money to an individual. It isn't fundamentally about market returns, at bottom; it's about the near-universal human preference for something now over something later. Once you have that concept in mind you can do some calculations and get the wealth-weighted aggregate time preferences of everyone in the market. But notice that that's an average: particular people can and do have wildly different time preferences, and there's no abstract Platonic "true" value of money aside from its value to people.

Which is all well and good, but not really relevant to effective altruism or utilitarian ethics. Effective altruism starts with the premise that people have inherent worth in some universal sense. If we're just thinking about people's value relative to me, then sure, humanity thousands or millions of years from now isn't worth much. I'll never know or interact with them, and nor will anyone I know or care about. But the whole appeal of utilitarian ethics is that it's not based on who I happen to like.
Increasingly, there are applications for NASA science data taken about the Earth: https://appliedsciences.nasa.gov

Some of that webpage is a bit fluffy for the HN audience, but trust me, look underneath and there's a lot of real stuff there.

For example, GRACE measures groundwater (https://grace.jpl.nasa.gov/applications/groundwater/) and has been the main source of information about fast-depleting aquifers in India and California.

Probably the best measurements we have of whole-atmosphere CO2 (as opposed to in-situ point measurements) come from Earth remote sensing (https://ocov2.jpl.nasa.gov) -- you're right though, that is climate-related.

Another one to take note of is MAIA (https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/multi-angle-imager-for-aer...), which will measure PM2.5/PM10 over various cities.
> Drug overdoses, attempted suicides and actual suicides are way up, for example. Drug abuse is way up. Child abuse is way up.

Just to be clear, you're saying that the reason we've seen hundreds of thousands of excess deaths last year is because of drugs, suicides, and child abuse.
Another term that may be more familiar is "ice breaker". The senior person offers up an idea to get the ball rolling. It shouldn't be too complex, it shouldn't sound like the way to go. It's just something to help make other people more comfortable participating, especially people junior to them. It may even be a dumb idea, getting some laughs and breaking the tension.
I can remember failing math class hard throughout my entire academic career. I never passed a math class past primary school, and ended up dropping out of high school. The concepts simply never made sense to me, and as they were presented were just meaningless rote exercises of memorization. Math was something I had completely written off as ever being able to understand.

Then I took calculus and trig classes in college. Since I was also learning graphics programming at the time, I was able to actually make sense of math with a real world connection. Playing with little graph equations on shadertoy.com made me realize graphics was all just math. Everything immediately clicked. I was able to intuitively visualize the trig functions and graph equations and do transformations of them because I could picture what the resulting image would look like. Ultimately the problem for students I think is just creating this connection to reality.
My thoughts exactly. I was hoping they would reveal a list of sites and traditional photos of the.
I haven't read it. Can you please summarize the counterarguments presented in the book?
In the paper they suggest that spending ~24 hours more doing computation means you can divide the number of qubits by 24, indicating that at least in one sense it is linearly scalable.

From my limited understanding, you process for a given amount of time, after which you can classically pull out an answer with some given probability, with some trade off with time and noise.

I imagine it would be somewhat possible to have several quantum computers running in parallel which end early, each correctly deducing the answer with some given probability. If each of the N^x machines has a 1/N chance of having the correct answer, you could simply test each solution classically.

And that assumes there is not some way to seed the search effort classically during the setup of the quantum circuit.
I distinctly remember terming my searches as questions. I was young and this was back pre Google so I was using Ask Jeeves. Naturally if you're asking someone something you would phrase it as a question, so in my mind it made sense to ask it that way.
> In fact, I believe overlays are also commutative.

No. But "nice" overlays probably should have this property, since commutativity means orthogonality.
I would be surprised if that's not the case already!
> Mandating vaccines (and now boosters) in young, healthy people who were already at small risk, including those who have already had the virus, is so absurd that I can't even characterize it as science. It is simply punitive behavior.

The idea that a vaccine is a punishment is disturbing. I'm glad to have been able to get it.
It is like this for all subjects. Beyond the 5th grade, applicability drops a lot. Knowing how to read simple sentences, perform elementary math is enough to get by with most tasks, but personal finance will be a struggle.
Bad compared to what?

"Microsoft's January 2022 Security Updates" looks comparable: https://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/forum/all/micros...

Perhaps the parent comment was flamebait and I fell for it.
After looking into your problem a bit deeper it seems there are certain apps that may override these settings and force screen locks. There is also different versions of android each with different menu settings.

So I would say the best option for you is to go through a process of elimination by first finding out what version of android your phone is using and doing a search for screen lock during call settings based on that version. Then if that does not solve the problem begin removing unnecessary apps and then one by one disabling the apps you need until the problem is resolved.

Other than that, maybe the other comment about trimming around the camera might fix the issue.

Sorry I can't be of more help, I hope you resolve the issue.
Corrections get a tiny single digit fraction of the views of the original. There is no button to make sure everyone who saw the original sees the correction, assuming one is made.

All you need is a few other places making the same claim, sourced to NYT, and only the people that care enough will even click through to read the source. NYT isn't putting corrections on headline news for the same visibility as the nice fresh off the press article.