> We're now discussing the extent to which vaccines are killing lots of people. Your data in support of this is unexplained excess deaths in the US and Israel in 2021.

Not exactly. What I'm saying is that the vaccine surely reduces the number of people whose death is attributed to covid, but I see no reason to believe it reduces any death _at all_, and it might even increase death. E.g., you seem to care if covid death is replaced by a flu death (reducing covid death, but not changing all cause), whereas I don't, regardless of vaccine safety.

> I remember seeing something here on HN about Israel's excess deaths implying vaccines caused deaths and thinking it was bogus. Please send me the link again.

I have no idea which link you are referring to. But data here is well summarised here https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1485609513428398081 - note the rise in 2021 in ages 20-39, which is not attributed to covid (and Israel has a crazy amount of testing, about 4% of the population each day at this point, averaging 1.5% all year long in 2021). The rise in 0-19 is only compared to 2020 (which is unusually low - quarantines&lockdowns did not save anyone in that age group from covid death, but they did significantly reduce traffic deaths, which a significant percentage of deaths in that age group). I don't have a handy reference for the per-month breakdown, but there is 30-40% excess in months following vaccine drives, and 0-10% in others.

> As for US excess deaths, why can't this just be Covid? Does every state test every death?

There are huge financial incentives to report covid deaths and hospitalizations, the point many people suspect _over_ reporting of covid deaths. States are not even required to test for covid to consider something covid, it's enough for the case to be "likely covid". What this section mostly includes is sudden deaths, where you didn't have any warning -- if you have warning, you usually have an idea for the cause. So you are claiming it's "sudden covid death", where people die from covid without any signs ahead of time, and which only happens starting mid 2021 or so -- does that make any sense to you?

> Also, the RCT wasn't underpowered. On what basis do you make that assertion?

On the basis of the proof you gave above yourself. 24% more deaths within 6 months of the vaccine, for a group of (essentially) healthy 18-50 year olds. Your calculation showed that if it increases death by 24% in that group, you wouldn't see it.

Let's say the vaccine saves 1% of the people over 60 that get it from covid death, but kills 0.01% of all people that get it at any age with "random" cause. What you would see in the general population is ... exactly what you see. Population all cause mortality within statistical variation, mostly; But significant acm increase in groups that tend not to die, such as 20-39.

I'm intimately familiar with Israeli data, residing here now (and .. Israel has some of the best population level tracking, so it's useful to look at). 2020 had lower all cause mortality per 100K than 2015, despite now vaccines. 2021 has higher all cause mortality per 100K than any year since 2010, with vaccines (pending final revisions, but they almost always go up' not down). Corona attributed death do not explain the difference.

Something is weird, and the main thing that changed is ... the vaccine drive.