Thanks for the link.

Here's a source from the Department of Justice with some more information.

https://www.ncjrs.gov/html/ojjdp/nismart/03/ns5.html

This points out the number of true kidnappings of "children and youth" is between 60 and 170 within 95% confidence level, and 115 the best average estimate.

Concerning the 58,2000 "non-family abductions" reported in NISMART-2 (National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway and Throwaway Children), it notes 47% were known to police and 53% had no police contact. Most the time was because the family expected the minor to return. This gets into that the "non-family abduction" category includes many teen runaway cases where leaving was initiated by the minor themselves. Regarding family and non-family abductions that are counted as abductions but not counted as missing children, NISMART-2 notes: "Examples include children who ran away to the homes of relatives or friends, causing their caretakers little or no concern; children who were held by family members in known locations (e.g., an ex-spouse’s home); and children who were abducted by nonfamily perpetrators but released before anyone noticed that they were missing."

It goes on to point out that NISMART–1 estimated 3,200–4,600 non-family abductions and NISMART-2 estimated the 58,200 we are looking at. The difference was that NISMART-1 used a "legal definition" of non-family abduction, which for example didn't include runaways, it included police reports where there was actual evidence of an abduction.

The report also covers what I mentioned that most of the actual 115 or so true kidnappings are teenage girls and not small children: "The NISMART–2 findings reinforce the 1988 study's conclusion that teenage girls are the most frequent targets of nonfamily abductions and stereotypical kidnappings. To some extent, this finding contrasts with the image drawn from media accounts of the abduction of very young children such as Adam Walsh and Samantha Runnion. Perhaps the innocence and vulnerability of younger children ensure more publicity and greater notoriety for these cases. Nonetheless, in planning strategies for preventing and responding to nonfamily abductions, it is important to keep efforts from being misdirected by the stereotype of the preteen victim. In fact, the vulnerability of teens needs to be a central principle guiding such planning."

Regarding the very large numbers reported for missing children, NISMART-2 notes: "Most of the caretaker missing children became missing because they ran away (48 percent) or because of benign misunderstandings about where they should be (28 percent). Together, these two reasons accounted for 84 percent of all children who were reported missing." It also notes that many children go missing more than once care must be taken which counts are per incident vs per individual. Also regarding missing children, NISMART-2 points out that, "Only a fraction of 1 percent of the children who were reported missing had not been recovered by the time they entered the NISMART–2 study data. Thus, the study shows that, although the number of caretaker missing children is fairly large and a majority come to the attention of law enforcement or missing children’s agencies, all but a very small percentage are recovered fairly quickly."

Of the stereotypical kidnappings that NISMART-2 estimates as 115 per year, these are quite dangerous as 40% of them result in the child being killed and an additional 4% in being never recovered. But again, most of these "by far" are teen girls. With the non-stereotypical kidnappings that is the vast majority of abductions, one of the example cases they give is of a 14 yr old teenage boy that was detained and then released by an alarmed citizen when he was found hunting in a public park with a shotgun, a 4 yr old boy that did not get off at the right stop on the school bus and was later returned home when the bus driver found him, a babysitter who would not let the children leave until she was paid, and a 17 yr old girl who was taken by her 17 yr old date to a mountain even though she didn't really want to go there and molested by him until he gave up and returned her home. None of these nonfamily abductions they give as examples involve small children playing in the yard unsupervised who are taken by a stranger.