the more intermittent energy generation is in a grid, the more balancing mechanisms, either storage or flexible generation, will be required. As both generation and consumption have to be balanced in real-time (at close to 100% reliability no less!), we have quite a challenge on our hands. There are hard limits in physics, geology and in regards to cost for grid-scale lithium-ion batteries (for detailed reasoning and the role hydrogen might play, please refer to this excellent talk from UC Davis: [3]), especially as the global roll-out of EVs is simultaneously under way. Long story short: more solar & wind is bad news for coal but great news for natural gas (especially in regions like the coastal US and Germany where a phase out of nuclear is ongoing).

In the western world, we can eventually shift away from burning fossil fuels (low population growth and off shoring of energy intense manufacturing helps), but globally the demand for fossil fuels is still growing quickly. It's hard to overstate just how much of a revolution LNG (liquefied natural gas) has been and is - for the longest time you could only use natural gas directly if you were connected to a source via pipeline. Western Europe was almost entirely dependent on Russia for example. Now, a global market has evolved. Nigerian gas can be shipped to Brazil when a drought limits Hydropower capacity, gas from Trinidad-Tobago is burned in Massachusetts to compensate for limitations imposed by the Jones Act and lacking pipeline connections to the nearby Marcellus shale [0], Australian gas powers industry in South Korea and Japan - countries that don't have substantial energy resources. It has gotten harder to strong-arm consumers, as they now have many suppliers to choose from and countries like India are making gigantic bets on natural gas for the coming decades [1] longer term, we should expect a changing power balance and better energy availability around the world. Replacing coal-fired capacity with cleaner burning natural gas is the biggest, fastest gain we can aim for when trying to combat local pollution and global co2 emissions (though methane leaks have to be brought under control!). Nuclear is a tough sell politically (even though that seems to be changing in some areas and the solar/wind capacity roll-out is already moving quickly.

Given that the global population is expected to be north of 10 billion in 2060 - 38 years from now - and that the average disposable income should get a very substantial boost, the energy demand of humanity is still on an aggressive upward trajectory.

I would not count Exxon out just yet, if you read their 10K (annual report) [2], you get the sense that they have a deep awareness of renewable energy deployments around the world. Given the cost advantages of oil (think of it as liquid batteries) and the centrality of natural gas in our economic system, I don't think ships, pipelines and trucks moving fossil fuels will disappear anytime soon.

[0] https://doomberg.substack.com/p/new-england-is-an-energy-cri...

[1] https://www.investindia.gov.in/sector/oil-gas/natural-gas

[2] https://ir.exxonmobil.com/static-files/29f8cfbf-6158-49b2-b2...

[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ykv_0N-bRc&t=922s