skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
That's why in these discussions it's usually better to talk about specific statistics like 'the chance of a wildfire has gone up by 20%', or perhaps more clearly 'the average time between extreme floods has gone down from once every 100 years to once every 60' (which I find communicates the point a bit more clearly).

That said personally I think that should be as far as the discussion goes, talking about a specific event and asking whether it's because of climate change is silly and leads to counter intuitive results because by nature extreme weather events are mostly caused by bad luck.

Climate changes the frequency of extreme events, but talking about the frequency of a singular specific event is impossible. And talking about just 1 or 2 of them isn't quite enough either, events will occur at a rate far above or below that predicted by the best weather models simply because of (bad) luck.

I sometimes get the feeling that people try to attribute extreme weather to climate change because it improves the narrative, or as proof that climate change has happened. But personally I find this a bit silly since the fact that the global average temperature has increased and the effects this has on weather shouldn't be all that controversial.
Martin Kleppmann (known for the Building Data-Intensive Applications book) gave a lecture on Raft a year ago [0], it remains my absolute favorite explanation of the algorithm.

[0] https://youtu.be/uXEYuDwm7e4
Netflix is like an in-flight entertainment system. There's really nothing there you genuinely want to watch, but here you are, you might as well watch something.

Every once in a while, they do have a good show. And even that sucks, because you know they will now ruin it by adding 3 seasons where absolutely nothing happens.

And there's the woke thing spreading its wings. Even in the Witcher, where it's perfectly fine to behead people and burn down villages, but one most not engage in acts of "toxic masculinity", by making dismissive remarks at women. This requires a lengthy dialogue to correct.

Yes, I should cancel.
Yep, I use Notion for nesting, since that's where I do all of my other work.

Workflowy is great though — years back, I used it for everything. These days I supplement my Notion workflow with Dynalist, which is basically a Workflowy clone with additional features.
The Year of Owning It
Yeah, I think that will depend on the scientific quality of the observations provided by JWST:

- Hubble/COBE level. Refuel it!

- LHC level: Meh, let it rot.

Tbf it is less about the device (and the people working on it) and more about what kind of fundamental changes to our understanding of the universe is provided by its observations. BTW I am pretty bullish on that front.
“Homeless” is defined in different ways for different purposes, it’s not deception.

There’s homeless as in “in a shelter or on the street” and there’s homeless as in “lives temporarily with friends or family”… lots of ways to slice it
Do you have a citation for that? I’m not sure it’s correct (although I don’t have any links of my own handy either, sorry!)

My impression was that infant mortality was a great deal higher back then, but there wasn’t as big a disparity after that as people tend to assume. People didn’t hit old age in their 50s and 60s, they often lived into their 80s and beyond, just like today.
Powers of Ten, Updated with Current Science
Thanks! Helpful. Do you have to compile neovim or can you just brew install it?
Apple has always had a subtle (sometimes not-so-subtle) exclusivity or "you're inferior if you don't use our stuff" angle in all their marketing.
I had a quick look over on Amazon and they appeared to be left-over old stock?
I wondered about that the last time I drove to Canada (about ten years ago), and I just kind of held my breath and the gas pumps all worked.
How Soon Will Covid Be “Normal”?
It’s complex and chaotic, sure. But as you increase time horizons, and area of simulation larger and larger, that complexity and chaos starts to average out. So you can’t take a singular datapoint from a climate model, and make any concrete statements, but you can take thousands to millions of them and start making probabilistic statements.

Additionally it’s not like these models are untested. Their predictions are continually compared to actual reality, including by taking know data, and asking the model to predict more known data. Pretty basic stuff for testing the capability of any model, and guess what, that data shows these models are pretty darn good.

Everything in this world is complex and chaotic, how cars behave in collisions is complex and chaotic. But no one doubts our ability to use computer models to design safer cars. Equally most people generally trust the one week weather forecast, despite the fact that it’s substantially more difficult to predict weather than it is to predict climate.
Unfortunately it isn’t that simple. A lot of these lenses are expensive not just due to rarity but from the shear complexity and difficulty in producing them. Some can take literally months of production time. They frequently contain dozens of pieces of specialised glass which are ground to tolerances measured in nanometers. The way the light interacts with these lenses is simply not something that you can simulate. At least not on anything less than a decent sized supercomputer.

And the reason you want one of these expensive lenses, is that they can do things that other lenses physically cannot and can never be persuaded to do.

The famous Carl Zeiss Planar 50 mm f0. 7 lens used in Barry Lyndon is special because it can physically let more light into your camera than any other lens. That’s why nasa commissioned a set of them from Zeiss to use in filming the moon landing.
California school funding formulae are a big complicated mess, but student attendance does play a role in budgets during regular times. Every day of school your kid misses costs the district about $50. Some districts even nag parents for donations after absences[1]

However for the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 school years, they set a baseline so that schools received funding based off of their 2019-2020 (preCOVID, normalized) average daily attendance. This was good for big schools that had lower enrollment but caused issues for suburban/rural districts that saw a lot of growth.

[1]: https://www.mbusd.org/apps/form/form.MBUSD.qZBxuUG.Ee
There are some other things on that todo list ('rape first wife', 'cheat on pregnant third wife with pornstar', 'publicly blame your failed business on a dead man before his funeral had even taken place', 'send deranged tweets to Kim Jong Un while on cough medicine and alprazolam') but you'll get to them ;)

But nah, seriously, I don't know how some people can say such absolutely witless stuff, and still see fit to click 'send'. I think they are just nonplussed that not everyone else has the same Ubermensch ethic as they do, where anyone sufficiently rich or accomplished is exempted from the moral requirements incumbent on normal human beings.

They worship them, to put it simply - the rich and powerful - and they don't understand & can't process that not everyone else does.
So, am I misreading this, or is the risk, attributed to an anonymous source, entirely theoretical, based on what the companies "might" do, since the government "might" call on them to do it?
1. You’re overoptimizing for Covid, and not for health,

2. The adverse effects of mental and physical heath are irreversible,

3. The tanking of the economy and the debt (until 2048 for France) is irreversible,

4. You didn’t even solve Covid.
Disease was a fact of life -but since antibiotics and vaccines we live much more disease free than we did before. Covid is reversing this progress.

We do not have to become totalitarian to stamp out Covid, we just have to enforce the necessary policies for a limited and specific circumstance. I'd like to think our democratic institutions are capable of doing so in this instance, as they did so in previous times.
> (Footage? WTF? Video measured by distance? Maybe we should say "frameage" or "pix.")

I'll start saying one of those when my phone dialer icon stops looking like a Western Electric Model 500 handset.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Model_500_telephone
> everyone thinks kids do shit for status or clout and not just because we want to and make a choice of our own

Signaling and making “free choices” are not mutually exclusive.
> But it's the same old story, in the 00's i used the ~same arguments against buying OracleDB ;)

But no matter how logically convincing your arguments were, most of the time upper manglement just went on buying Oracle, right...?
> I don't know much about virology but I understand exponential growth. It looks like the cases are doubling every 2 weeks (edit: I guess this might even be a few days? See [0]). In a few months, almost everyone will get it. In the last two week period, won't half the population catch it? In that case, even with 100% vaccination, hospitalizations would still be 1/20 of half the maximum due to COVID. Right?

As people become infected and gain immunity (in reality not always perfectly and not necessarily until the end of times, but on average they'll definitively do, and right now we're only talking about a simplified thought model anyway), they drop out of the pool of people available for further infections and therefore slow down the growth rate.

While still only a simplified approximation, logistic growth is therefore a better model than naive unchecked exponential growth, and the maximum case rate will be somewhat lower than "half the population gets infected in the last doubling step".
The relevant comment from the previous thread is probably:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28620561
Oh ok I've only ever posted questions. I just assumed it didn't because I have seen a lot of dupes (also recent ones).

But I guess making it too wide would create false positives.
The Problem with Owning Beachfront Property: The Ocean
Brother is already doing it.
Talk to the lawyer. The NDA may have an arbitrary clause but that would be for violations of the NDA its itself. Your work would be covered under an employment contract of some sort either a implicit contract which you say you don't have or an implied contract which would be the emails that you exchanged in which describe the work that you would do and the compensation that you would receive.

This is a typical labor dispute. They probably have no money or very little funds and so they're seeking to reclaim it from you. The moment they threatened to sue is the moment you should stop talking to them and refer them to a lawyer. Everything that this hinges on is the initial emails that you exchanged which described the work, the time frame and the compensation that you would receive.
I value myself not when I do what is called the commanding duty of this Monday or Tuesday, but when I leave it to do the duty of a remote day, as, for instance, to write a line, or find a new fact, a missing link, in my Essay on "Memory" or on "Imagination".

- Emerson, journals, ~1858, Vol 14 p15.
The lenses are expensive because they're made to very exacting standards but also they're a low volume product line. A cinema lens is hand-assembled from hundreds of components that must be aligned to extremely fine precision, with a lot of human-in-the-loop workflows requiring trained technicians. Why optics are expensive is a long and deep conversation.

As for quality, the highest of high end lenses are much sharper for a given f-stop, and sometimes have higher t-stop ratings, than cheaper lenses you can get. They will look consistent through all focus settings, and won't "breathe" (zoom while focusing). The lenses also come as a matched set, so you can switch between focal lengths and the images look the same -- no color shift or aesthetic change. This puts a huge number of constraints on the lens designer, requiring different materials and manufacturing processes. Cinema lenses aren't irrationally priced, even if the demand is driven by aesthetics.

And yes, modern lens designers could probably recreate classic lenses. No, it's not economically viable, even at outrageous prices. (Because you can digitally fake most of the obvious artifacts, and the few people who really care about the in-camera look aren't enough to justify the engineering cost.)

There may also be a minor materials issue; some of the glass used in very old lenses was pretty exotic, some were even mildly radioactive. It's possible those glasses are not available since there are better replacement options in glass catalogs now. But this is just speculative, I haven't tried to source thorium glass. (Yet?)
It calculated mine correctly. Is it reproducible? If so, give a sample date of birth.
DAЯK was excellent, but as the saying goes, it's the exception that proves the rule.
Using SMS or iMesssage seems to be a very US centric thing to do. At this point i only get these kind of messages from companies.

In Europe i'm gussing people quickly migrated away built in messaging system, to basically whatsapp because its availible on all platforms

In any case it feels like a very low level thing to use the phones built-in messaging system. If someone sends me a message using imessage i would reply to them on whatsapp and ask if they are Ok ;)
Discrete events are a human construct but the underlying data is continuous. I'm not sure the attribution of individual events is that meaningful and the article suggests for a variety of reasons the models aren't really built for that purpose anyway. So I think in a sense you are right, but this doesn't necessarily imply any problem for the predictive value of the models or research going into them.
Ironically, our controls might have selected specifically for uncontrollable strains.
So, following the moxie.org article on how centralized web3 is, Etherscan just went down with a "service is unavailable" message.

So many web3 services rely on it to operate...

edit: ok just kidding, it's back up again (mods, please remove)
Let me know if you need any help in moving to Telegram! Welcome aboard. Need help with channels/ bots, groups? We've got you covered.
The end point matters, we can’t be sure what the final death toll per Million will be in Finnland or Sweden.
Garry Kasparov: Crypto Means Freedom
Always assumed the way the loop and game should be played was:

Assuming Developers A,B,C,D of somewhat similar experience and expertise.
For one month, randomly assign Developer A,B for example, as committers
and C and D as reviewers:

1) Developers A and B create code and submit pull requests.

2) Developers C and D are randomly assigned as reviewers.

3) IF there is a future bug, on code that passed the review, its not up to A or B to fix it. One of the originals reviewers, ( ex C or D) are randomly assign to fix the reviewed code. NOT the original Developer.

4) Developers A and B while as committers, get a value
metric on how much code passes reviews and gets
committed to production.

5) As no Developer A, B, C,or D ever wants to have to fix the code
of somebody else...Reviews are very thorough.

6) Next month... A and B are on the reviewers team and C and D
on the committers.
That option exists for Telegram as well. You can set it up for 3 days to 1 month
I believe it's the other way around: Kubrick got a version of the NASA lens modified to accept a Mitchell mount so he could put it on a 35mm motion film camera. He only used it for the candlelight scene because he had to remove the spinning mirror assembly used for monitoring, so they were shooting blind.

Don't remember the sources for the anecdote, sorry. But the wikipedia page corresponds:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_Zeiss_Planar_50mm_f/0.7
Not the same virus, but a similar virus.

As much as we would like to wish, Covid is not going to become the common cold anytime soon, or indeed ever. We should act according to what we see with Covid, and understand that any naïve attempts reduce it to other known pathogens can only lead us into tragedy.
In case anyone's curious, the SCOTUS case was Kirtsaeng v. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/kirtsaeng-v-john...
I was thinking along the same lines. My coworkers get tested all the time, mostly for no real reason. Ironically one guy was out with covid for a few days after being vaccinated and boosted.

All indications are that omicron is more often than not a cold… how many of the teachers would have normally come to work with a cold?

I like to think back to Nancy Pelosi in Chinatown telling everybody to come on down in 2019/early 2020 and wonder if all the panic wasn’t incited on a near daily basis, would this would be as big of a problem?
Can you give me another example of a chaotic system that can be correctly forecasted years out?
> Android users trigger a just-a-little-less-cool green bubble: ‘Ew, that’s gross.’

Seriously? What are people doing to their children that make them this fucking shallow?

Edit: NM, apparently it's all BS anyway.
This is particularly true on HN, at least from what I’ve observed last year. On more than one occasion, I’ll type out a reply, only to close the window in frustration knowing where the conversation will eventually end up.
Sounds like that would be expensive with little to no return when it comes to the goals of the mission.
If you live in a cold country with cheap electricity they have you covered. But I think you're right - that can't be good for a computer

The electric heater that earns you money https://heatbit.com/
I think I'm getting something different from this than what the author intended.

* They mention their study hall as a "super spreader event". This feels...hysterical to me. Not just because it worries me that this kid is thinking about this in the way they are, but also because it's wrong. The risk this person faces is much more likely from the HVAC system in the school, not the study hall.

* The way they talk about the other kid asking questions "with their mask down". To be obsessed with this sort of minutiae as a kid is scary to me.

* Kids thinking about test...and apparently being given something like 5 tests in a single day? This seems wasteful and hysterical on behalf of the school.

* Begin upset at kids for taking these tests in the bathroom instead of at home.

It just seems like there is a whole realm of paranoia that this kid is trying to fit on top of their life, and I don't think this sort of paranoia is in any way reasonable.

I think that teaching kids to think about their world with this framing, and at a formative age, is and already has done major damage to their development.
No cap an actual literal xray? Metal detector sure, but your school had one of those things like at the airport?
Modern CLI Tools
i think it would be fair to say that science failed us if this is due to a lab leak, which appears to be the case. science made by possible by public health funding, in fact.
I thought it was gold when I read it too. Its use was the pièce de résistance of that paragraph.
I also can confirm Discord thing. I don't think they use messages (sms) to communicate to anyone else but us (their parents).
Google has given up on RSS completely. They are still supporting https://pubsubhubbub.appspot.com/ and bringing back a variation of rss reader https://in.pcmag.com/browsers/145379/google-follow-rss-reade.... “Follow the web” is the new theme.
Why dont we deploy a smaller sat in the same-ish orbit thats only job is to be the RING Doorbell for the JWST -- all it does is stream a live-stream back of the JWST -- if we can freaking deploy streams of Starlink (SKYNET) devices - we can certainly place tele-photo-capable sats that can then provide streaming video back of the things they are walking -- and they can FN relay off the starlink (SKYNET) devices...
Why do I have to do all the thinking?

1. Grad students and computers are cheap.

2. Crowd source it. Make the data (and the programs that process it) freely available. Let anyone who wants to analyze it - if they find something cool, they can be famous. They'll do it for free.

3. Processing doesn't have to be done in real time. There's no problem with taking 5 years to analyze 1 year of data.
What? All 30% of smartphone users with Android in the US are scammers?

I use a Google Voice number as my primary number and have for over ten years.
Just simple extrapolating logic. Climate is chaotic. Chaotic systems cannot be forecasted years out. Therefor a computer model for climate forecasting is not going to be accurate.
This isn't true. SMS was wildly popular in other countries years before it took off here.
yes. what else would they do for stuff like a backpack that set off the metal detector?

even had them in middle school, not elementary though.
There are videos of patrols.

Fined if outside during certain hours without an approved reason.

https://www.quebec.ca/en/health/health-issues/a-z/2019-coron...
We are taking a system that was in equilibrium and we introduce a huge disturbance (+ multiple degrees C). Hell yes it will be unstable until it reaches the new equilibrium (whatever that equilibrium will look like - catastrophic for life or not).
> this is what the powers that be want to happen. they want you to live in a state of panic and fear.

Do you think this is a conscious desire?

Is it something that our leaders developed after attaining power, or is it a preexisting desire that led them to seek power in the first place?

Why do they want people to live in a state of panic and fear?
My iPhone is my primary camera, good screen, durable, and in-hand for a bunch of key life events where a bigger camera wouldn't have worked. Well worth it. Purchasing choices are not universal.
SMS (the protocol) doesn't have read receipts. Read receipts are a device specific implementation that sends a message back to the number ( and has existed since before smart phones )
For people in highly competitive situations (like highschool) this is a selection event for those that can adapt to remote-first while being highly productive. In 5 years the people that did the best remote-first studying for the ACT/SAT/AP will be graduating from the top colleges and begin claiming the top jobs. The people getting promotions in knowledge work now are the people that have been performing well over the last two years of remote-first. The longer this stays the greater long-term impact it will have, as those that are doing well in this environment move to situations where they lead and create policy.
Grades are arbitrary. Plenty of kids start a year late sometimes on purpose by parents to give them a leg up. Particularly for grades 8-12, in school education is vital. You seem very concerned about the economy.
Thank you very much for the response! :)
> I really can't figure out where all the App Store money are going.

The money is going towards profits. Apple's App Store profit margin is ~80% and it increases every year[1]:

> Barnes calculated that the App Store had hefty profit margins, which increased to 78% in 2019, up from 75% in 2018, and generated $22 billion in commissions for Apple last year.

[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-profitable-is-apples-a...
Don't do it. Cameras and lenses are a low margin, high labor industry. Professionals are exceptionally picky about their gear, so you need skilled technicians working hard to keep your gear in top shape, and the prices are very low.

The bigger rental houses make all their money on other things -- the ROI on sandbags, sound blankets, even consumables is ridiculous compared to cameras. (Granted I'm blending grip and camera, but some houses do both.)

You're also competing with owner/operators, and even in-house studio operations. It doesn't scale -- relationships matter and it's highly regional. Compared to other ways to put your capital to work, it's not a great investment.
I'm sick and tired of doom larpers stealing the youth and life experiences of children and teenagers over this nothingness.

If _you_ have comorbidities _you_ need to protect yourself.