The “end state” is much more likely a North/Central American Confederation than any secession within the US. Maybe even South America, which would lead to a somewhat less US-centric Confederation. Four closely-related languages (English, Spanish, Portuguese, French) with a common history of Western European culture and colonialism against a backdrop of rich Indigenous cultures…that pretty much covers the whole of the Americas. That’s a pretty small hill to climb to achieve the integration of 700M+ people over two continents.

NB (from HN search):

The Texas secessionist sites have been linked to Russian interests.

https://extranewsfeed.com/how-russia-created-the-most-popula...

And I believe the Silicon Valley guy who was pushing the Calexit movement actually moved to Russia.

https://www.kqed.org/news/11217187/from-his-home-in-russia-c...

Basically, Eurasia is jealous of the Americas’s relative peace and prosperity.

The best response I read to these sorts of posts (of which there have been quite a few over the last 10 years) was the comment that this was settled with the US Civil War…the bloodiest in US. And for the rest of the US, that’s basically the end of the story.

The CalExit dynamics would probably, in the best case for those pushing it, go something like this:

Uncle Sam: Sad to see you go. We’ve been through a lot. When we bought you less than 200 years ago from Mexico, you were in a sorry state. There were proposals to make you a penal colony, like Australia. No Mexicans wanted to move there…wild, savage, cold, isolated. They aren’t saying that now. The US government and the American Way invested a lot into California and it has flourished under our wise and strong hand.

So, on to details.

You understand that all areas within 100 miles of the actual Pacific Coast stays in the United States. An idea we’re taking from Mexico…foreigners, you will be foreigners, can’t control property “on” the Coast. National security and all that.

Now, this partition has to be consistent with the wishes of those living in CA regions. So we will hold referendums by, let’s say, counties. I’m guessing NorCal and the Sierras will bolt CalExit and join with Idaho, Oregon or Nevada. So there goes all that snowpack/water.

So now you’re left with the Inland Empire and the desert. At the rate California is pumping groundwater for agriculture, they will be one and the same soon enough. I’m guessing conservative farmers are going to bolt CalExit and propose the Inland Empire as the new State of New California. Happy to have them.

So you basically are left with the desert. A very hot dry desert. Cheer up, that’s all the Mormons started with and they did OK. They were a physically hard-working, God-fearing people with a strong uniform social structure reinforcing their community. Sounds just like the psychological makeup of those who strongly support CalExit.

Now, we’ll save discussions on reparations due from the US government investments made in roads, hospitals, etc. for another time. Along with “sovereignty”…I put that in quotes because, for all extents and purposes, it will be in quotes. You get out of line, and an insurgency will “suddenly arise” in your desert empire that will bring your “country” back into the US fold. As a territory, of course, not a full State. You’ll have to earn that.

Change a few words, “Gulf Coast”, oil as a US national security asset, and you get the Texas exit state of affairs.