skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
In the UK: Covid will dimish in importance enough for people to disentangle the negative consequences of Brexit, leading to widespread use of the Pikachu shocked face meme. Scottish independence will take a step forward, with a new referendum scheduled for 2023.

At least one company (probably Apple) will exceed $4T market cap, current >$1T companies will all pass at least one more trillion milestone. No new companies will break $1T besides those already there.

Tax rules will come into effect across Europe rendering crypto/NFTs unattractive. The market will crash then rebound, but coin values will end up roughly where they are right now.

Russian troops will be invited into Belarus to formally support defence efforts, increasing tension with the EU.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline will become operational, but only after rocketing gas prices stir minor unrest in western Europe.

Chinese naval aggression will lead to a war of words with Japan but no direct conflict, but at least one weaker neighbour will lose fishermen or naval personnel in a small skirmish. The international community will continue to do nothing.

Taiwanese airspace will be entered by Chinese jets at least once a month, but no shots will be fired.

Genome sequencing will become an "optional" way to "reduce" health insurance premiums in the US. Sequencing of the wider population in Europe will be explored in more detail than previously, but not progress due to privacy debates.
As you tell it, he was certainly wrong that masks don't make any difference, even given what he knew at the time.

It's an area where precision can account for large changes in meaning. For example, it's true that the holes in an N95 mask are much larger than the viruses, but they're not much larger than the airborne droplets that contain the virus. There are ways to truly aerosolize the virus itself, but that's not how this virus is transmitted. He couldn't be sure of the transmission, but he would be wrong to assert that masks couldn't help.

It's possible that he was just dumb, or that he said something slightly different from what you report. Even an expert can be Just Plain Wrong.

Science as a whole always works from incomplete information, and revises itself. That happens even in the hardest sciences, like the way Newton's theory gave way to Einstein's. What's the same is the underlying process of trying to continually improve.
> There are now three genres of programming: prestige, drek, and children's.

This is something I've been feeling for awhile but haven't managed to articulate this clearly. All new programming is either a mega-budget tentpole or it's something to fill out the menus.
The push and pull of how you and I view these is intrinsic (in my view) to preventing the attitude of, "this is good enough".

Put in a metaphor: someone has to make the industry feel like it's making progress and someone has to drag the industry kicking and screaming forward. Both are necessary for improvement.

> Thanks for so clearly sharing your perspective.

Always.
The Houses That Can't Be Built in America – The Missing Middle
Whoever can pull this off will be the next iTunes/Spotify. But I don't think it will happen until piracy starts becoming a major problem and streaming services are pressured to consolidate to compete. Plex shows there is a larger potential here.
FWIW, the current article title is "CDC vaccine advisers vote to recommend Covid-19 boosters for all adults" and the submission title is "FDA authorizes Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna Covid vaccine boosters for all adults". It looks like it was updated/corrected after the submission.
To be clear: "safe" in this context generally implies more than merely "physically unharmed". It's quite clear that Jack Ma was coerced into giving up control of Alibaba. It seems likely that Peng Shuai is being similarly pressured.

Having authorities (for example) scream in your face about their ability to wreck your career and that of all your friends and family is not what most people would consider "safe".
Salmon Wars [audio]
It will be exactly the same as 2021; covid cycles, market will be ok, crypto will fluctuate, inflation will rise slowly, interest rate will stay the same. Earth will continue to suffer with global warming. People are displaced with fires, floods and sea levels. Civil unrest in many poor countries as autocrats seize more power. And finally Trump will still think he can convince us he won the election, it wont be on twitter
I assume they are talking about the splash guard / aeroplate underneath the engine which helps with MPGs to some extent. The plastic engine cover doesn't even need to be touched during an oil change.
> What really impressed me however was the origins of the first two titles: written by one man in assembly language

you arent alone, i think that is an impressive and time consuming feat.

OP, youre in a much better place now skillwise then back at 17, sounds like youre unchallenged at work and maybe burnt out. Take some time off to contemplate what youd like to do, open all the possibilities that interest you. Remember you arent starting over, you have a relevant skillset already. Maybe build some personal projects of any kind, to remind yourself how fun building things can be and your motivation may return.

that plus ensure youre getting daily exercise and sleeping well. Motivation follows those almost automatically at times for me. If i feel fulfilled, i have more energy
I clicked through expecting them to mention CMYK jpegs, which I remember causing a few compatibility issues back in the day.
And Worst Places to Work for Developers
They're gonna find intelligent life up there on the moon
And The Canterbury Tales will shoot up to the top of the best-seller list
And stay there for twenty-seven weeks
And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league
And the Tampa Bay Bucs will make it all the way through January

The stars are gonna spell out the answers to tomorrow's crosswords
And the Phillips Corporation will admit that they've made an awful mistake
And Bill Gates will single-handedly spearhead the Heaven 17 revival
And the Chicago Cubs will beat every team in the league
And the Tampa Bay Bucs will take it all the way to the top

And I will love you again
I will love you like I used to
I would love for this to become a regular thing on HN. And it would be even more wonderful if we had a standard template where we expressed our predictions in probabilities.
Building WireGate: A WireGuard front to detect compromised keys
If the Chinese did this the press would write about the genocide in Diego Garcia etc....

The UN resolution (international norms???) and International Court of Justice (ICJ) is being violated by the UK and US:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-mauritius-un-idUS...
earlier in my career, I would have said that, yes, it is a waste of time.

on one hand, estimating essentially requires architecting, and that's never a waste of time. on the other hand, you could argue that even w a good plan you won't know where the 1-2 rabbit holes will be (some subtly critical facet of my use case not jiving with the proposed toolset).

So i'd say get a decent plan (weeks, not hours) in place and give yourself a 50%+ buffer.
Amazon bans Visa credit cards in the UK: Why the two companies are clashing
> Kind of muddies this righteous stance you're pretending to take.

You're projecting.

> But you still want to consume the media that Disney and Amazon makes

Barely. I'd never pay for it, except as stand-alone content.
Low interest rates + nothing for higher earners to spend their money on supposedly leads to a crypto crash?
> But the more time I spend around the space ...

The more you get sucked in to the reality distortion field. I've been there, get out.
The only difference is that the post would live on a blockchain instead of a company server.

If you are talking about all the surrounding infrastructure, then that has nothing to do with NFT's. An NFT provides exactly the same value as a forum post. Someone can build a service which scrapes my forum posts and uses that to put links on another website based on some ownership details, so you can look at your owned posts there. You could make a whole game with assets based on forum post data etc, sounds exciting right!

Edit: Oh I forgot the other big difference. NFT's are crypto and therefore people pay insane amounts of money for it! Nobody would pay money for a forum post, that is just silly, but slap crypto on a forum post and wow, now we are talking!
> without harming them

Without leaving evidence of harm, maybe, but I wouldn't be so forthright as to claim that there is no harm. Torture tactics have become quite advanced and many leave invisible scars.
I think that will happen even without the lockdowns. The states that tend to lock down seem to also have the highest housing prices. And with millions now free to work from wherever they like, they will seek out cheaper shores.

When I moved, someone at my old office said, "How can you stand to live in a state represented by Senator X?" I told him, "When Senator X picks up my dry cleaning or valets my car, I'll care. Until then, Senator X has zero bearing on my everyday life."

I think people overestimate the weight that politics plays in selecting a place to live.
Payment for order flow will be banned, to the detriment of retail investors.
Perhaps it should be possible to condemn things like what happened to the Chagossians and what's presently ongoing with the Uyghur people simultaneously
The vaccine isn't efficient enough. Look at Gibraltar: 99% are vaccinated and they're still cancelling Christmas celebrations.
U.N. deals diplomatic blow to Britain and U.S. over Indian Ocean islands (2019)
Thanks for this. I wonder if they do spectroscopy on the exhaust plume. You can tell that it is burning a little engine rich at the start.
"A lot of us older grizzled engineers came from an open source culture that, at least aspirationally, built software around ideas of abundance, post-scarcity, universal access, and equality"

I can't square this type of thinking with actual analysis. Some tech bro is making $225k arbing AVAX every day? I can literally go and check out his contract on chain. I can deploy it myself! How is that anything but abundance, universal access, and equality?

TBH if you check out this guys tweets its like 70% crypto stuff, but anti crypto. I think he found his social echo chamber and is exulting in the attention.
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If politics was a game of rock, paper, scissors:

What is the counter to Amazon's lobbying?

I've done some DIY lobbying myself. Fought city hall, won some (very) minor battles, lost the war. Burned out after a few years.

Still foraging for role models, case studies, examples of effective policy organizations. Some kind of playbook.

Keep hoping some one, some where has some ideas -- actionable, reproducible, sustainable -- for bottom up organizing to effectively counter the boa constrictor squishing the life force out of civil society.
Substitute ‘greedy healthcare organisation’ for doctor and you have an actual problem not a made up one.
This is called Imposter Syndrome. I had the same thing when I first got into a company where I was working with seriously smart and talented people.

- https://www.verywellmind.com/imposter-syndrome-and-social-an...

- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impostor_syndrome

- https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/basics/imposter-syndrome

Long story short: If you're hitting your goals and getting paid, don't sweat the extracurriculars.
Huawei/HiSilicon will start producing highend chips again, fabbed outside the reach of US sanctions. Probably first the chips sitting inside their 5G base stations.

This will mark a turning point in the US-China tech war.
Point taken! Just for reference though it wasn't a sneer at all. I love HN and think this format where people get into a broader discussion about the general themes implied by the article, rather than stick narrowly to the actual text of the story, has been a successful one.
Could you elaborate what the poster was a mistaken on?
I had a drone get out of video range once, and I couldn't tell which way it was moving. I would rotate, then strafe left. I never was able to rotate it enough to clearly see any left or right movement relative to me, so eventually it auto-returned and crashed with 0% battery about 50' from where I launched it.

I should note it was either wind or microwaves that originallyl made it go out of video range, this was me trying to get an idea of flooding and hurricane damage the afternoon after hurricane Laura hit us.
While it's plausible to believe that all VPNs are actually honeypots for the police to catch criminals, getting sued over torrenting something is a civil case.

In this case, the hope is that your VPN won't accept money from media rights holders, in exchange for your data.
I must be insane. But I could care less about either of those things.
How does a defeat-able non-essential feature shorten a vehicle’s lifespan?
Swisher was hardly positive tech press.

I'm just glad there's people like Ben Thompson where the quality is so much higher. It's nice to have real competition now with people that can own their own distribution and aren't writing everything as some dumb narrative hit piece.

The only ones left at the large orgs when the dust settles will be the mediocre writers targeting engagement via controversy. There's no reason to give them access.
Author here. This is correct, we set out to do binary diffing but we soon discovered that if you put similar enough object files together in a stream, and then compress the stream, zstandard does a fantastic job at compressing and decompressing quickly with a high compression ratio. The existing binary diffing tools can produce small patches, but they are relatively expensive both to compute the delta and to apply the patches.
Do you know this with reasonable certainty or are you assuming this to be the case? Either way, it’s arguably better to design defensively and build in better security than you think you will need up front rather than have worse security and be in the headlines for the wrong reasons later.
> Look at the dollars involved in Amazon or other corporations vs. the EFF and you'll see enough of a disparity that EFF and you calling your congresscritter are a rounding error in comparison

I agree with you. But people observing that disparity in influence and access and concluding that the solution is to call for banning lobbying is part of the problem. (There is a host of problems, ranging from campaign finance laws to disclosure rules. They each need a solution that, unfortunately, hasn't yet found a compelling banner.)
Dodge or Nissan would be my vote.
> Really? Most individual people don't lobby because they don't have the money to do it.

Meta-comment but this is how all HN threads on topics like this turn out:

- Topic: Perpetual rights to all clean drinking water in Nigeria put up for auction

- Half the thread: It’s nuts that rich people are able to just buy something that should be a basic human right

- The other half: Excuse me, but who said that only rich people can buy these rights? There’s no law that is stopping them from buying this right. Regular people can crowdfund those $20B if they really want. Another option is for the citizens of Nigeria to vote with their feet and move to another country if access to clean drinking water is so important to them. And should clean drinking water be a human right anyway? What if we lived in the vacuum of space and there was no drinking water, huh? Didn’t think of that, did you. And human rights are basically tantamount to slavery since ...
The file format was finalized years ago, so yes.
Hopefully not, but if there is some major "internal" US trouble (like a big economic crash) they probably will.
I know the feeling but I will leave you with this:

"There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self.

― Ernest Hemingway"
Crypto can't be a real inflation hedge because it's not a productive asset (this is not a criticism). It may be going up because people are worried about inflation and so are moving some money to riskier assets that offer a higher return, but if inflation were to continue people would be forced to move their crypto assets to things like food, housing, equipment, that are actually productive, which would drive down the price of crypto.
I'm thinking of this ruling: https://www.theguardian.com/law/2013/jun/25/supreme-court-vo...
I dont understand how with 1.4 billion people there is absolutely no sign of opposition. Whats the lower bound on how many people you have jail or kill to domesticate the whole herd? It has to be an insanely large number.
There's no such thing as "raw" intelligence.

Those people you find so incredibly impressive who have done such worthwhile things? Every single one of them sucks ass at a multitude of things. Every single one of them would see something in your set of capabilities that would astound them.

It takes a vast constellation of capabilities, including yours, to create and sustain our world.
- Unsupervised pre-training of vision transformers goes mainstream

- An NFT platform reinvents DRM

- Apple teases AR devices (Late 22, spring 23)
"NFT is literally identical to the original" Youre so close here! Literally identical except for the fact that people are willing to pay millions of dollars for one, and not the other! Perhaps there is something else that makes them different too.....
Do you have any idea how much money a trillion dollars is?

If you paid $1 per second, it would take you:

12 days to spend $1 million

32 years to spend $1 billion

32,000 years to spend $1 trillion

Imagine spending $1 every second for 32,000 years. It's ridiculous! Yet we throw that number around like it "isn't that dramatic". We will never be able to pay off that borrowed money! And it will work until it doesn't. And then we will wish we were never so foolish.
Just this week, I was reading Berenstain Bears books to my daughter, and shocked that it was not Berenstein. I still hear Berenstein in my head. Then I see your comment, which I shall interpret as that I am not misremembering, instead I am in the Truman Show—and some prop guy spelled the title of the new book wrong, and your comment is all part of a rushed coverup.

;)

(Of course, I recognize this as another instance of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frequency_illusion)
Obviously some people will complain to the BBC, but I really don’t think that will be much of a thing. It will be an undeniably monumental event.
I know nobody care but in 2022 I will lose my job because France will mandate vaccination at work.
Why is El Salvador a "fiasco"?
85%, not that it would matter for a conspiracy theory.
I don't understand what the problem with multiple services is. Is going to a different site really that difficult? There are plenty of aggregators that tell you the good stuff on each site, and their recommendations are usually better than each sites' anyway.
GitHub is down?
How Higher Education Is Going to Change
Any discussion of COVID's origins now just makes me think of Jon Stewart on Colbert's show. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSfejgwbDQ8
Comirnaty Package Insert
What are some non-speculative places where one can get into this?
The particularly frustrating thing about this is people who say "I don't want to live in a box, they're not for everyone!" and are so threatened by the idea of not living in suburbia they make it (nearly) illegal for anyone _else_ to not live in suburbia.
It must be nice to belong to a demographic that is unaffected by politics.
Both penjelly and pgruenbacher mention great points.
Personally feeling very similar to OP as well.

The things I need to do better are sleep better and exercise more.

Counseling helps address some of these feelings but only go so far to motivate one to take care of themselves...
The problem relies on the vertical integration (streaming and production), this is no a new problem, actually it's the same problem as it was with movie theaters back in 1948 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Paramount_Pic...), I've remember watched a video about it a few years ago (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fDF-S68kx5o)
Indian academics join to support Sci-Hub court case
Why Are Topre Keyboards So Expensive?
Bitcoin bull due to inflation worries and bitcoin lack of intrinsic value means the only metric is FOMO, so if it goes up it goes up more.
To stabilise a high price long term you’d need additional countries adopting it, and they need to fix the climate impact.

Eventually Bitcoin will be a lacklustre investment like gold. Essentially cash-like but deflationary at heart. That’s if it succeeds. Or it will implode to nothing!
Nah, I kinda like it. It's a very idealistic and optimistic space with a vision for creating a commons that's not owned by any one commercial entity. The scams will drop away when the current bubble bursts but the web3 culture + tech are probably here to stay.
Exactly. Releasing early and often to an ever-widening circle of stakeholders provides the same discipline with much less pathology.
Yeah the 25% coolest parts too.
Ah, my dad owned one of these. Rudimentary reliable car that can go anywhere. He used it mainly in back roads with no tarmac whatsoever. The damn thing worked like a clock. You can find parts everywhere and they're cheap, any mechanic can work on the car, and it's build like a tank. It's not fast, or particularly comfortable, but it's the epitome of reliability and dependency.
Instagram is one distraction, so is navigating through a bunch of touch screen menus to turn up the heat or turn down volume.
So now that Biden is the laughingstock of the Right, I guess they have the establishment and the deep state on their side and that is why they are not exiled?
I'd buy that book.
Don't use GoDaddy, ever.
I'm saying that I am significantly faster and more correct TypeScript than JavaScript, and I know literally no people who are starting greenfield projects in JavaScript today.

People choosing to write JavaScript in 2021 might be plenty productive. I trust their code much less, though, unless they're writing a battery of tests to establish sanity at their module boundaries and making the extra effort to ensure correctness that you get very cheaply with TypeScript.
Social media-reality and outside-your-window reality will finally diverge so much people will begin to notice.
From the article:

Various health economists have calculated a NNTV for COVID-19 vaccines.

Ronald Brown, a health economist in Canada, estimated that the NNTV to prevent a single case of coronavirus is from 88 to 142.

Others have calculated the NNTV to prevent a single case at 256.

German and Dutch researchers, using a large (500k) data set from a field study in Israel calculated an NNTV between 200 and 700 to prevent one case of COVID-19 for the mRNA shot marketed by Pfizer. They went further and figured out that the “NNTV to prevent one death is between 9,000 and 100,000 (95% confidence interval), with 16,000 as a point estimate.”

.....

Furthermore, the NNTV to prevent a single case is not a very meaningful measure because most people, particularly children, recover on their own (or even more quickly with ivermectin if treated early). The numbers that health policy makers should really want to know are the NNTV to prevent a single hospitalization, ICU admission, or death. But with the NNTV to prevent a single case already so high, and with significant adverse events from coronavirus vaccines averaging about 15% nationwide, Pharma and the FDA dare not calculate an NNTV for hospitalizations, ICU, and deaths, because then no one would ever take this product (bye bye $93 billion in annual revenue).

-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_needed_to_treat