skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
warren had a more coherent policy package than any other candidate, but from what i remember, some of her proposals showed clear detachment from actual on-the-ground issues vs. academic idealism. it's just like how 'progressivism' has been co-opted by ultra-liberal/socialist factions to mean 'spend as much as possible on social programs, consequences be damned', which we're seeing in the current stimulus package debate.

her proposals on how to deal with consolidated power and capital at the top are/were more reasonable, but that's because she's has a more visceral experience in that arena, rather than with poverty, housing, or immigration issues, for example.
Isn't that trivially true, though? Even if there's zero causation, when `n` is closer to its minimum, the possibility space for `n`'s future is mostly above it.
Desktop for the bulk of generic CRUD apps is dead. But that has always been the case because that's not the main benefit of having a desktop.

Same for 'what was your first computer', there is a whole generation (or maybe two of them at this point) that started out with smartphones and didn't get to the 'using a desktop' level until much later when preparation for work life required it.
I had this with Elder Law ads, after I started watching Better Call Saul.

I was watching it as MP4s I'd pirated /years/ ago, on VLC, on a computer running Arch Linux.

I have lots of examples that I can hand-wave away as interest profiles, but I've thought about this one since and just have absolutely no idea how it would happen. If someone could explain how this happened without using the mic, I'd be really interested. Better Call Saul hadn't touched my browsing history for years, and elder law never had at all.
And a hard-left socialist…that somehow happens to own one of the most capitalistic companies. Irony.
What rock are HN viewers living under? You guys just going to deny that hyperinflation isn't a reality because your hard on to hate a billionaire outshines any rational your brain might manage to produce? Billionaires suck, but he isn't wrong.
The moral relationship between people and their children has changed a lot. People back then abandoned illegitimate children all the time. Studies show, for example, that childhood mortality rates for illegitimate children were often twice as high as for legitimate children. E.g. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Infant-mortality-among-l....

Nobody is excusing Jefferson, because that’s not the purpose of this exercise. The history is what it is. But it’s important to understand and appreciate Jefferson. Many people have ideas about “government and liberty.” But Jefferson’s ideas produced one of the most prosperous societies in the history of the world.
So what’s your proposal?

Generally the #1 problem faced by homeless people is a lack of housing. Issues 2-10 will require support and help as well if we care about rehabilitation and reentry into society. Even if flawed, giving these people homes in converted hotels is likely better for them and for us than not doing that. So what else shall you have us do? Less, hoping we can ‘fix’ them with some good old fashioned tough love? (Hard to argue plenty of places haven’t done that to…basically no effect) Or, more, with learning and fixing mistakes along the way?
Huawei's HarmonyOS ‘is a success’, embedded in 150M devices
“Soon” is a pretty good weasel world.
It is -- the sites sold for $135m in 2016 (out of the gawker bankruptcy) to Univision. Gawker media group was famously operationally well run and threw off lots of cash.

After Great Hill bought them for $20m -- presumably with a ton of debt, or something -- they then put an idiot named Jim Spanfeller in charge. Jim managed to get the entire staff of deadspin -- also a profitable, well run site -- to quit en masse. Said staff later started Defector and are running it as a coop, basically. Defector has survived a full year running on subscription fees and largely without advertising (or maybe entirely without?).
"There will be inflation" is indeed a reasonable prediction. But that is definitely not the definition of hyperinflation[1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation
just to throw out a blast from the past: https://github.com/djandruczyk/eXtace
He created two multi billion dollar companies just by "being lucky"?

I'm skeptical.
Only people who don't understand the wealth destroying affects of hyperinflation will actually cheer for it.
Why would you call the police to report a crime that they have a policy of taking no action on?
South Bay homelessness has adapted to car culture. A lot of South Bay homeless live in cars or campers permanently parked on city streets adjacent to parks, school fields, and/or business parks. I think most South Bay cities have a "you have to move a vehicle that's parked on the street every 3 days" law intended to discourage this, but it doesn't seem to be enforced.
CNBC reporting, of all places..
I noticed that many news sources were pushing the "great resignation" message.

At first it seemed logical due to covid/wfh movement so I didn't think much about it.. but then the articles kept appearing. It struck me as paid placement especially when mixed in with unrelated news sections. I should have taken screenshots.
>"Jack has a vested interest in hyperinflation through Square and his investment in Bitcoin"

How would Square benefit from hyperinflation?
> I was on a team of 2 and my coworker left for Google for a little under $300k

I had a coworker leave to be an L4 SWE at Google earning the same in 2017. I don't know if the anecdote is relevant to the 2021 Great Resignation if people were doing the same thing 4 years ago (unless your colleague got an L3 offer for that amount).
Yep it's all out the open and there are many things wrong with it. Fix all the problems with it and you've re-invented the wheel and it's no longer super simple.
What connection is there to ads and content? It’s a random (to a degree) ad selected by youtube you can’t wait to close so you watch your chosen content.

Further, videos are not outright banned on behalf of advertisers, only demonetised. Also, whether you agree or not, there would be advertisers who wish to target this audience. There isn’t a shared moral code that all advertisers abide by.

Somethings very wrong when advertisers are acting as content moderators.
The bitcoin.
With debt to GDP at such high ratios raising interest rates has some challenges, why do you think this is easy to deal with?
The reality is that they, the ad companies, caused you to think about it or talk about it in the first place without you ever realizing it. Ads work incredibly well on people even when they think they aren't susceptible.
I don't think the second one is as hard as the first.
Maybe the luck requirements to do it once or twice are the the same.
People probably refer to generic functionality like personal PIM (which boils down to webmail, Facebook products and Google products) as no longer being desktop-based.

While there are industries that still use local compute and local rendering, that is exactly what it's about: industries. You might have image and video and audio manipulation. There could be hardware control. Maybe there is 'appliance'-like functionality such as POS and vending systems. But those aren't really the mass-desktop scenario that it used to be. That is mainly 'work' usage.

There is this section that you can carve out that does still exist in the traditional form and that is gaming. But that essentially turns the 'desktop' into a gaming console.

Legacy configurations that require things like an actual mouse pointer and multiple windows (or that dreaded MDI document-window-in-a-window interface) are generally left in two categories:

1. bad implementations

2. niche implementations

The first one means investment to fix, which is generally not going to happen if there is no commercial incentive for a commercial piece of software. The second one is a niche and doesn't represent desktops in general.
The Funniest Paragraph in Wikipedia
"But the problem is a real one, not a mere intellectual game. Because today we live in a society in which spurious realities are manufactured by the media, by governments, by big corporations, by religious groups, political groups — and the electronic hardware exists by which to deliver these pseudo-worlds right into the heads of the reader, the viewer, the listener"

I wonder what he would think of today's world
Can someone give the quick tutorial on how to load music files into the thing? I installed projectm-sdl on Arch, it doesn't seem to do anything when I pass a file name to the program, keyboard mashing seems to do nothing, and dragging-and-dropping from a file manager seems to do nothing.
Historically, Dorsey has come across as more of a wishy-washy stoner than a sharp business mind.

He's bought a lot of BTC, so any prediction he makes that's bullish on crypto should be treated with suspicion. I don't think he's a pump-and-dump artist like Musk, but he's still not an objective forecaster.

Also, he's either predicting something catastrophic (meaning something that would crumble the world economy) or he doesn't know the meaning of the word "hyperinflation" as most people use it[1].

For some other examples of why I don't trust Dorsey to predict anything, he also said that Bitcoin would be "the" digital currency in the near future (before 2028, but perhaps sooner)[2]. If anything, it's less likely to happen because of the rise of stablecoins.

Finally, there's a paper published recently[3][4] finding that, over the last 10 years, professionals (economists and businesses) were "substantially" better at inflation predictions than consumers.

Most economists expect inflation to peak something before the end of this year, and next year to have high-but-not-dangerous[5] inflation.

This makes sense if the cause of currently high inflation is supply-chain problems, which we have no reason to doubt so far.

1. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hyperinflation.asp

2. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/21/jack-dorsey-expects-bitcoin-...

3. https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publicat...

4. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-economy-inflation-expecta...

5. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/inflation-gauge-should-be-ho...
The us did it in the late 80s. 15% interest rates!
So far we've had demand outstripping supply in many area without inflation happening.

Apparently, that's because in a lot of areas, consumers and businesses have demand but it's still price sensitive. And the chances are price increases aren't going to result in wage increases, so it's hard to see a cycle of inflation happening.

The US has spent it's way out of all the crises of the last twenty years and so far hyperinflation has been avoided (but other distortions have appeared, surging commodity prices, surging rents, etc).
True! Not the same homeless population. Chicago homeless begs aggressively, the one in SF are just zombies.
Some argue that current US debt level blocks country from meaningfully increasing interest rates as it will balloon interest payments which are paid (in reality) by printing money. I am also not confident than US politicians are smarter than ones in Venezuela
This was the only reason I considered resigning. I know I have to do interview prep, even for non-faang, and it’s hard to do it after a days work.

With that said, given how this is my plan no matter what, it has actually freed me from whatever circumstances can arise at work.
Efficiency that comes from increased technology and automation is strongly deflationary. COVID related stresses have only pulled forward investment in tech and automation. There’s a strong case to be made that the concern in a few years will be too little inflation.
That was not an answer to his question, and I am really curious for an answer to it because I think it's a valid and reasonable point.

Also, as to whether believing scientific general consensus should count as "faith" or not, I invite you to read Issac Asimov's short essay "The Relativity of Wrong".
Don't see how this is possible, strictly mathematically.

The money supply (M2) did increase 30% in a year, but for hyperinflation it would have to continue at a rapid pace.

I could see a situation where the Fed starts to taper/raise interest rates which triggers some turmoil, and then re-engages QE in a much more aggressive manner or goes negative rates. That could lead to extreme levels of inflation.

The truth is when you ease monetary policy, you somewhat trap yourself at that level, as people will take on additional debt due to lower carrying costs. This makes tightening more challenging, as the higher debt levels become more expensive to service.

Likely the only way we go hyperinflation is to monetize fiscal spending, thus fiscal spends more, thus we need to monetize more etc.

It is true that the Fed is currently buying 60% of newly issued treasuries, e.g. monetizing fiscal spending by money printing right now. So we're kind of on the verge of MMT here as it is.

Unfortunately the Fed has been pretty cowardly and optimizing for short term outcomes/political appeasement rather than doing the right thing for the long run.

If tightening monetary policy leads to disruption in the markets, we may just need to eat the short term pain. The consequences of continuing to monetize deficit spending and stoking rampant speculation are too great IMO.

We may see very high short term inflation if supply issues continue to worsen and widespread shortages develop. In that scenario prices would rise to compensate, and demand destruction would likely lead to a resolution. Of course, that's how layoffs start, and the whole thing becomes stagflationary.
Curious, why do you think it’s difficult to raise interest rates when debt is high?
I'd encourage you to develop some first-hand experience working with this population of resistant addicts.
It’s a proxy for adaptive success. He accumulated lots of resources so we pay attention and emulate him because his strategy has paid off. Not saying it makes sense in a modern context.
Perhaps he had something special to start two successful companies, but I still agree with GP, that doesn't necessarily transfer to special insight into global economics.

Still, a broken clock is right twice a day, and it isn't too hard to predict inflation when inflation is already happening at higher than normal levels. That's like predicting floods when its raining.
I am afraid the child's ability to withstand the fraudulent has been evaded by this:

"The basic tool for the manipulation of reality is the manipulation of words. If you can control the meaning of words, you can control the people who must use the words."

This has been learned and applied by all sorts of actors. It would be well if this power, and the tendency to abuse it, were better known, so that more of us would be on guard. Unfortunately, most people seem all too willing to allow the determined to take control of the language.
Deflation is easier to address. The economic levers to ease deflation are longer.
he also has a vested interest in the fear of hyperinflation.
It's a double-edged sword. For people with debt, the value of their debt decreases as inflation rises. If salaries rise with inflation, even with some lag, the debt becomes easier to repay.
Here’s what the White House has to say:

https://twitter.com/jasonrantz/status/1449144813291331588

Source article:
Psaki Defends Rising Prices: ‘Good Thing’ Because It Means ‘More People Are Buying Goods’
https://www.dailywire.com/news/psaki-defends-rising-prices-g...
Maybe he does think that his life as a wealthy person is going to improve in any way with hyperinflation. I'd disagree completely.

In fact, I think hyperinflation in the U.S. could likely stir up wars that (as we've imagined since the cold war) could very well break the world. Of course I know nothing of value about this, but chaos followed by violence and escalating into full blown war sounds possible. Or at the very least more possible than now, with a stable structure of power(s) that only shift gradually.

I don't think crypto coins are useful if the world order dissolves and we have trouble keeping up eletric grids, much less a working internet.
To fix a problem become part of the problem?
"Die Partei, die Partei, die hat immer Recht!"
I think the US government messed this internet thing up big time when they didn't classify the internet as a utility, which I think it clearly is. A phone company can't discriminate based on politics. Neither can a power company. They were deemed important for all of society, business and personal use, equally. Everyone gets equal access regardless of beliefs. We play silly games that overall bring disharmony to everyone. None of this is good in the long term. No one is winning.
Its all good. Let people see them for who they are.

Learning takes time.
Sadly he is right on this, the last 50 years or so the growth in the Chinese economy has created a high growth low inflation world economy, this has ended.
Maybe @jack thinks hyperinflation is when people hype Bitcoin to inflate its price? Cause we aren't seeing hyperinflation.
>He didn’t work with any organization or ask about the problem.

If you want to find out what a situation is like, why would asking someone about it be more informative than actually going there and witnessing it yourself? The self proclaimed "experts" are the ones responsible for the policies that have turned San Fransisco into what it is today.
The flu is a completely different virus. In fact, what we call "the flu" is actually several different influenza viruses, so your flu shot isn't targeting just one virus, it's targeting multiple influenza viruses. The rate of mutation of these viruses is very different than that of SARS-CoV-2.

The reason there's a different flu shot every year is that the efficacy of last year's vaccine against the current influenza viruses will likely be too low to provide adequate protection, not just against infection but against serious illness. This again is because of how much the influenza viruses mutate in a short period of time.

Currently, the data indicates that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are holding up very well in preventing severe illness, hospitalization and death for all SARS-CoV-2 variants. This is the reason why the boosters that were approved are the same vaccine, not a new variant-specific one.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccines do not provide sterilizing immunity, and it is clear that the neutralizing antibodies produced immediately after vaccination wane quickly, which allows vaccinated individuals to still become infected.

Unless and until you see a drop in the efficacy against severe illness, hospitalization and death, this idea that we will or should be taking COVID vaccines indefinitely every year is hard to justify with science.
> With debt to GDP at such high ratios raising interest rates has some challenges

No, it doesn't. I mean, it would have political problems if Congress had to do it, but that's literally why we have an independent central bank managing monetary policy, so decisions that would be difficult given fiscal policy preferences aren’t difficult to make.

> why do you think this is easy to deal with?

Because it is.
The problem is people are measuring policy success by how well intentioned it was rather than it’s results. Then, to further pile on to the disaster, political correctness discourages people from looking critically at the effects.
I mean, people may disagree with these moves by Nintendo and this position may be short sighted, maybe not. But regardless, it's Nintendo's intellectual property to do with as they please. They certainly don't owe fans or customers anything.
A lot of younger people out of college still live at home. They are free of financial burdens so they can easily switch jobs or take time off. There’s a lot less risk, and one of the better side effects of the overpriced housing/rental fiasco.

I also think the Pandemic has acclimated some families to the notion that one person may need to re-skill or look longer for a job (say your typical double income couple). One may need to stay home to watch the kids, whoever is out of work at the moment. It’s a shift in sentiment, one which once upon of time may have felt horrible. During the Pandemic, tons of families were going through this, so it didn’t feel weird or abnormal that one person was on the bench for a bit, as everyone in America was going through it. I think families are no longer pressuring themselves and actually opting out of not taking that crappy 6-month contract job, or that job at Wendys, and giving each other the latitude to prep for better jobs.

These changes are giving a little power back to the people. We expected the pandemic to be over in 2020 and it never happened, so we all had to learn patience and it spilled over to a lot of other things in life, including evaluating jobs.

Last but not least, many Americans have not gone to the theater, or ate in at a restaurant at the rate they were doing pre-pandemic. I haven’t stepped foot in a movie theater in two years, and have only eaten inside of a Diner twice in two years. The chip shortage made it so you can’t even buy expensive toys like a PS5 or that new graphics card. We were forced to learn consumption-reduction, and I think many people realized it’s not so bad. Expenses go down, and suddenly you are not so desperate to hop onto any job that comes your way.
Government revenue needs to come from somewhere, and inflation is a type of tax.

By the time hyperinflation is possible, the federal government will have two choices, keep interest rates low and keep borrowing, or to default.
found the ad man.
It's good that people investigate homelessness and go one level deeper.

But why do they stop at drug addiction?

Or worse, decide that drug addiction is the underlying root cause that now needs to be treated with rehab, detox, or what have you.

Drug addiction is not the cause of poverty. Poverty is the cause of drug addiction.

The stories of the people who get into drugs recreationally, then descend into addiction, and destroy their lives are the exception vs those that start using to escape deeply challenging lives with poverty, physical abuse, and mental health struggles.

The dramatically rising rates of homelessness and addiction across US/Canada are the side effects of the toxicity of our society, the erosion of social safety nets, and runaway wealth inequality, capitalism, and housing affordability crises.

The Portugal model works when the rest of your society is cohesive enough to support those at the fringes. I don't know if it actually can succeed in nations founded on rugged individualism and who instill the obsession with liberty and freedom in every person from birth. This not only leads to society unwilling to help those that need it, it also makes those that need that help unwilling to accept it.
Able bodied able minded homeless people prefer clinic doctors in my experience.
There is a small benefit. However it’s a negative to the lenders which include many socially advantageous institutions like pension funds which purchase securitized debt.

The negatives are so numerous it’s a struggle to find any upsides. Luckily I am rich and own property with government-subsidized fixed rate mortgages so I will ride out all the terrible outcomes with a shrug.
Worked with in what capacity?
Oh, wow. What a nostalgia trip. Milkdrop was my jam around the late 90s and early 2000s. I'm glad it's not forgotten.
The hallmark of hyperinflation is that the velocity of money increases rapidly, seemingly without control of the central bank. Basically it's a feedback loop where everybody thinks the currency is going to be worthless tomorrow, so they rush to spend it today, which makes money change hands more quickly than normal. Or on the supply side, they believe the currency is going to be worth less when they can spend it, so they pre-emptively raise prices to compensate for that.