> By the same argument you could say China won't attack Taiwan, because it and its allies can also actually fight back.

You could make that same argument, but I don't think it would make any sense.

The US _could_ attack any country on earth, and probably 'win', but there would be a non-zero chance that we would lose, thus we won't do it - my argument is about US behavior, not the behavior of countries that have nothing in common with the US in terms of power.

Taiwan is not in the business of attacking other countries.

China is not in the business of attacking other countries, either -- though they are about to make an exception for Taiwan.

The US _is_ in the business of attacking other countries -- constantly.

China sees Taiwan as the US sees Cuba, except even more/worse -- an existential threat that must be brought to heel, by force if necessary.

Think of how the US reacted during the Turkey/Cuban Missile Crisis. We were willing to blow up the world - and all driven by US aggression in Turkey - thankfully we backed down.

So, will the US risk their/our own destruction to either 'save' Taiwan from Chinese rule, or to maintain global dominance? No -- we don't need to. We'll still have control of the rest of the South Pacific - minus N Korea - and we already control space.

There's a reason the US started building chip factories in the US -- we know China is about to run Taiwan.

Australia and the Philippines and Japan and S Korea and maybe others will become much more wary of China very quickly, but it's not clear China has any real interest in conquering any more countries - at least, not by force. They talk openly about owning Taiwan, and most of the world is happy to cede Taiwan -- has already done so, in fact. China does _not_ talk openly about owning Australia, or the Philippines, Japan, etc.

> How does China invading Taiwan work out to "started by America"?

not sure what you mean by this -- i don't agree with this sentiment.

the US has already made a decision to make China's takeover of Taiwan as politically/economically painful as possible - but that's it.

and because the entire world is literally going to die if the US and China don't work together on climate, there will be practical limits to war between the two -- and, really, between any two nuclear-capable powers. India and Pakistan might blow up the world, Russia and the US might blow up the world, it just takes someone waking up in a bad mood one day and the world as we know it is over.

so it comes back to - is the US willing to blow up the world to stop China from claiming Taiwan? i doubt it -- there's just no evidence for it. Biden is already calming relations, and Trump - to his credit - never wanted anything from China except money and practical politics.

i think what Biden is doing thus far is mostly correct-ish, given the world we live in, and I'm not sure what the best approach would be going forward -- if one is interested in peace, freedom, etc.

i would vote for something like:
* see what China and the US and others want to start providing basic human rights to the various people we are torturing and murdering
* see if we can agree to extend those rights to the people of Taiwan
* de-nuclearize the world so some asshole doens't wake up in a bad mood one day and end us all
* continue building goodwill in fight for freedom/justice for all humans, while fighting global warming

i mean, something like that.

Taiwanese people are legit fucked. It's an extremely messed up situation, but I thin we should be honest about what is happening, and what is likely to happen.

If I had Taiwanese friends, I'd tell them to gtfo while they can, but that's not practical for most folks.

Best we can do is push for non-agression, for human rights, etc. -- a lot of the stuff the US has very little standing on, unfortunately. But the US is not all-powerful -- other countries are not completely helpless, especially the bigger states.