skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Perhaps I also had poor phrasing. Let me try again:

We should strive to reduce the COVID burden on the emergency / ICU segment of the healthcare system. But I believe we could alleviate burden across the entire healthcare system if more people ate healthier diets and exercised better. Perhaps we could even alleviate more burden than what could be alleviated by way of completely eliminating COVID.

A lot of people are talking about mandating vaccines, and there is constant awareness of anti-COVID precautions everywhere you look. I think that if the same sort of intense campaign was rallied regarding better eating and exercise -- basically pressuring people, even borderline forcing them -- then we would see better progress in this area.

It is unfortunate, I think, that so many resources are being put into pressuring people to take the vaccine while comparatively little is being put into pressuring people to just be healthier overall. Which might in fact also help in the face of any virus!
Nothing has happened here that breaks a regulation under which a civil suit can be brought?
Or at least decently fast charging. The new onePlus can get you 0 to 100 in 30 minutes.

Knock it down to 20 minutes and you can charge the watch while you shower in the morning.
Huh? You can derive all of those from Bayesian models. If you're counting balls from a bin with replacement, and your bot has counted 400Red with 637Blue, you have a Beta/Binomial model. That means you p_blue | data ~ Beta(401, 638) assuming a Uniform prior. The probability of observing a red ball given the above p_blue | data is P(red_obs | p_blue) = 1 - P(blue_obs | p_blue), which is calculable from p_blue | data. In fact in this simple example you can even analytically derive all of these values, so you don't even need a simulation!
> Pull people out of retirement, Pay truckloads of money

So take the most vulnerable age group (old people) - and stick them on the front lines, looking after fat lazy middle aged people who are too lazy to get a 50cc jab.

They are retired doctors, they are not retards.
No one cares about the boy issues and while maturing they find out about it very quick.
The challenge, at least for those that want to use the watch for sports, is not the "daily" use, but that the watch runs out of juice so quickly when using its location tracking, aka GPS sucks battery.

So, the reason that I want longer battery life is not, per se, to charge once a week, but so that I can use it on a longer run, and not be afraid that the battery will give out as I get close to the finish line.
That is a University of Science worthy medical fact.
Apple's Foundation vs. WB's Dune: An epic sci-fi clash of content distribution
To charge it has to be able to function as a Qi pad instead of just a receiver which requires chips that may not exist on the phone side of things. Also there may be issue with coil mismatches the pencil has to have a really small coil compared to almost all other wireless charging devices. It might be very specifically tuned for the spot on the side of the iPadPros in a way that wouldn't work well on anything else.
I remember when I first saw that USC dataset, it was mind blowing. Any public health official worth their salt should be absolutely horror struck that the public's perception of the risk profile of a disease is off by multiple orders of magnitude. Their entire job is to accurately inform the public about public health risks, and that dataset is proof that they've failed more spectacularly than I would have thought possible. They should be working around the clock to try to amend their failure, and earn back the trust they've thrown away.

Strangely, despite all the pearl clutching about "misinformation", this data-backed and quantifiable instance of covid misinformation never gets brought up. As a result, I now consider government / public health institution claims to be politically calculated fearmongering or propaganda until proven otherwise, and likely not worth my time to pay attention to. I'll update my opinion about them if their stance toward "correcting misinformation" starts to include misinformation like the above as well.

I'm not holding my breath.
Thank you. I could not figure out the business proposition behind it from the release.
What Attitudes Towards News Tell Us About Building Trust
So you're just going to pretend that the entire media and political establishment (at least in US) as well as many industries (ex. big tech) are not strongly supportive of big pharma when it comes to the vaccines?

Are you going to pretend people are not being actively censored, banned, cancelled, fired for being vaccine-sceptical?

Do you not believe that the extensively-documented mass manipulation of public opinion is a thing?

If this is the fantasy land you want to base your reasoning in, then I accept that we have different starting points but your reasoning is compelling under your starting point.
Anyone who makes $100k+ in US, has health insurance with a few thousand dollars annual maximum out of pocket.

More importantly, while in the US, healthcare insurance is typically a benefit offered on top of the cash salary, in Germany, health care tax is deducted from the salary. So, if you’re American household making $100k, you’ll spend $3k on Medicare tax, and then you’ll spend up to your out of pocket max, typically less than $5k/year (and you’ll hit the max only in years in which you heavily use healthcare). In contrast, if you’re German making 100k EUR, you’ll be paying 8k EUR healthcare tax every single year.
My wife got a sub-$100 tablet from her job that I do that on. Maybe I'm missing something, but the iPad has never been appealing as a practical device to me. Maybe if I could code on it. Nice size, I can use a mechanical keyboard with it.
Because they 'currently' have no choice. Give it a few more decades..
Yes, Lotus 123 came out 38 years ago :)
Mental Math Training
Smoking cannabis is also bad for you. It’s just a ploy by governments to get you to smoke so you die earlier.
If a trial subject is exposed to virus and the vaccine works to trigger an effective immune response, how does PCR know the difference between virus molecules neutralized by vaccine response and those neutralized otherwise?
Regulatory capture is understood and happens in other industries (e.g. the MIC). Feel is pretty naive if you don't think politicians are willing to incur massive opportunity costs to society at large in order to enrich themselves and the establishment that they essentially work for.
Isn't it because it's a plural?
I shudder to think if they go on strike and decide not to play golf for one day. This would surely bring worker revolution that we've been talking lately.
Sounds like my phone, honestly. Maybe I'm still biased by young eyes.
I think you are close to the truth with this. I saw a talk with him and regarding morality and the media he was basically saying, basically, that he was sad but that the media just likes sensation, and that changes.

He basically said he makes films for an amoral media industry. But perhaps his art reveals this?
I still see $5M-$6M pre-seed rounds for first money, friends & family rounds with just an idea & founding team -- the type of deal flow you're most likely to encounter while embedded in FAANG?

Post-revenue, post-YC seed rounds are going to be $10M-$15M+. Then again, I've also heard of companies raising at $40M+ in the last 6 months with less than $300k ARR. YMMV.

(I've only been angel investing for 3-4 years, and as a very part-time endeavor. 8 of 12 initial seed investments survived past SeriesA (so far), with 1 unicorn. Looked up your track record on AngelList: Mad respect!)
Gelman et al's BDA3 has a fun exercise estimating heart-disease rates in one of the early chapters that demonstrates this issue with effect-sizes. BDA3 uses a simple frequentist model to determine heart-disease rates and shows that areas with small population sizes have heavily exaggerated heart-disease rates because of the small base population. Building a Bayesian model does not have the same issue as the prior population prevalence incorporates the small base population sizes.
> Nothing has happened here that breaks a regulation on which a civil suit can be brought?

That's what this announcement is. The SEC charged them. They settled. The investigation, meanwhile, provides documentary evidence for some of the wronged to pursue claims against the wrongdoers.
If Apple were to publish it, it wouldn't be confidential insider information. But they don't, so it is, so misusing it is a problem.
Yea this thread hurts my brain, I legitimately can't tell.

But I believe it would be, Water World style. Why not re-purpose scrap parts, you could even make other helper robots with the scrap.

I'm reminded of Seveneves with the robots that make more robots tk make more and bigger robots. Man I'm gonna re-read that now.
The most radical change that is needed is a land value tax and when consider that monopolies should pay tax for the privilege of withholding something from society it is only fair. It isn't called the "unearned increment" for no reason.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unearned_increment
Most contracts I've had were due to skill shortages - not enough people know technology X, so they can't be bothered to join at regular FTE wages - but if you offer twice that as a contract, then people start showing up.

The relevant difference is the wage increase, the contract (instead of regular employment) is there mostly to create the illusion (to fool HR and some managers who can't deal with the fact that these programmers make more than them) that it's only a short-term emergency position fill, before the company can find suitable FTE - but in practice, the contracts are multi-year, because skill shortages for new/exotic tech just don't resolve themselves that quickly (demand tends to rise quicker than supply for a while), and also the company prefers to stay in denial and never raise the FTE wages they offer to meet the market expectations. So, the vacancies never get filled, and contractors stay for 3-5 years.
same here - I went for 600km MTB marathon and Garmin devices lasted the whole trip. I had to bring a charger for my iPhone though :(
> I assume DOJ can't prosecute when SEC comes to a settlement agreement?

This is incorrect. The SEC has no prosecution authority. That means it can't prosecute. It also means it can't take criminal prosecution off the table.
I think that Facebook knows that Instagram is doing exceptional- worse than other social media services popular with teens- damage to teenage girls minds, and doesn't care enough to fix it[1]. Just saying "the algorithm did it," as if humans didn't create that algorithm, constrain it, and are now carefully monitoring its destruction of people's lives, is to absolve the people who work for Facebook of their agency. They built those algorithms and are responsible for their actions. They made a choice to build the algorithm and to give it power.

Much like tobacco companies knew that their product was doing exceptional damage to their users lungs, and clearly didn't care either.

[1]: They know that because they are quoted in the original article saying that- that Instagram seems to be worse than Snapchat and Tik-Tok for the psyche's of their users. They seem to be taking steps to try and rectify that, but they seem very small, in proportion to the damage that they are inflicting.
But it’s been shown again and again that the cheaper option will be taken and if the fix is more expensive than the pause to clean, guess which happens.

Amazon seems to have (or had?) this issue with climate control in their warehouses. Was the fix done because of the need to protect workers and keep them working, or the PR disaster that they caused?
Yeah, there is certainly a parallel argument to be made about constantly introducing new tech even if the currently used tech is GoodEnough.
That's not a good assumption. Parallel enforcement routinely happens. Sometimes simultaneously, sometimes later. Sometimes both are reported in the same places, other times one is not reported at all except on DOJ's own website or in more obscure court dockets. Sometimes there is no referral. Sometimes the DOJ passes on it.
Yes, in most cases they hand it over for free in return for analysis tools for viewing their own data.(Charts, filters, etc.)

This was a pretty big benefit when all Apple offered was an unwieldy CSV broken out into line items for each country, but less so today.
Do we actually have costs for the boreholes? Looking at the IDDP (geothermal deep borehole at 5km), I see costs of $22M. So we are talking about around $20B for the 800 boreholes forecasted for all the waste ever generated in the US. That sounds quite cheap to me.
But it's not a 1/12th more, it's 1/3 more. 1/3 is 33% more than 1/4.
Yes! The unusual relentlessness and Conan's breakdown is why that's my top Norm memory. Just mean from most people, but that impish grin lets him get away a perfect stream of ad-libbed insults.

Saw him twice in standup. Second time he was completely committed to a theme of being a born-again Christian and it was hilariously puzzling.
Are there any teenage girls here on HN who could comment from personal experience?
> kept adding fancy instruction sets such as AVX512 useless to most if not all ordinary users

I'm not a microprocessor expert, but this seems like one of the reasons RISC has so much potential in the future. It seems like x86 is just weighed down with so much cruft.
When productivity increases, you have 2 choices:

1. increase your wages. pay your suppliers more.

2. decrease your prices.

It doesn't really matter which you do. Do we want higher wages or lower prices? You can't do both. Does it even matter? The net effect is the same. Who cares that we've universally chosen #2?

Note: I'm assuming there's modest competition. Monopolies have a 3rd option: more profit.
The flu doesn't require as many ICU beds. Nor do you need to stay weeks or months in the hospital because you had the flu.
Is Facebook/Instagram this medium? I find this really hard to believe, especially in 2021.
Reading this, it seems like part of the problem was the false message. If there aren't any unauthorized charges, the system shouldn't be sending people rejections falsely claiming that there are. Mistaken rejections are unavoidable, but they can still accurately describe the reason for the rejection.
A practical guide to radial basis functions (2007) [pdf]
Obviously the latter is a major issue but additionally I think great detriments are coming from an obsession to quantify and reduce everything into arbitrary models. sizzle is talking more about qualitative than quantitative studies, though.
> App Annie and Schmitt assured companies that their data would be aggregated and anonymized before being used by a statistical model to generate estimates of app performance. Contrary to these representations, the order finds that from late 2014 through mid-2018, App Annie used non-aggregated and non-anonymized data to alter its model-generated estimates to make them more valuable to sell to trading firms.

Nice to see the government making a statement about this pretty known practice. When the government doesn’t do anything people think its a tolerated practice. Its better for the government to even lose if it allows for the position of the administration to be made clear.
Skip them both, get a lightsail instance and install wireguard yourself.
p = 0.0001 doesn't help much. You can get to an arbitrarily small p by just using more data. The problem is trying to reject a zero width null hypothesis. Scientists should always reject something bigger than infinitesimally small so that they are not catching tiny systematic biases in their experiments. There are always small biases.

Gwern's page "Everything Is Correlated" is worth reading: https://www.gwern.net/Everything
Previous discussion here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28528756
Indeed the article hints that Curtis work is very pro liberalism at heart. The article suggests that this is hollow because Afghanistan in recent times (5 years after his film) has shown it to be fruitless.
Amazon Lockers in Over 100 Chicago Parks Will Net $137,600 at Most in First Year
Gonna miss this old chunk of coal.
Well, technically whatever happened between the big bang and inflation. But, while unsatisfactory, this is not an invalid argument. It is very plausible that it is impossible to replicate the conditions of the big bang, or anything close to them, so it is plausible we will never be able to scientifically describe that process.

As such, it is possible that the processes of the Big Bang (or whatever came before) somehow created more matter than anti-matter, but all of the physics that comes after is symmetrical with respect to charge. So, we have no reason to expect that we'll ever find a theory explaining why there is more matter than antimatter, just like we don't have any reason to expect to ever find a theory that explains why there are two kinds of electrical charge and not 5. So, it's not a promising avenue for research, and not a promising assumption.

In contrast, there are reasons to expect we will some day find a theory of quantum gravity, since we know for sure matter does interact gravitationally and QM doesn't account for that.
I prefer a phone that fits comfortably in a pocket. If you have one of the huge phones, then there's of course not so much difference.
Thanks.

Interesting in context -- wonder if he knew at the time, it would be right at the limit of the time-window described in the article I guess.
> To be fair, you're describing the USA over the past century

Then the question is: what are your commitments and which empire is closer to them?

Also, it's not exactly the US, since the US has a different underlying ideology, and US's commitment to free markets was successfully exploited by the Chinese in a way I don't think they'll be dumb enough to repeat.
> Is this normal?

It is. At my last job the first ticket assigned to me was about fixing the bug "average is greater than 80% percentile". When I told them that this isn't a bug, they thought I am just kidding.
> I'm reminded of the (perhaps apocryphal) story of how starbucks overroasts its coffee beans to achieve a consistent taste despite having multiple sources for beans (necessary due to its scale). the implication being that they sacrifice the average quality of the finished product to reduce variance.

The version I'd heard was people associate the ashy taste and dark roast with higher caffeine, even though it's the opposite.
Let's start with the fact that unlocking the bootloader wipes the entire /data partition to prevent this exact scenario from happening.
A lot of really old games were unplayable without the manuals - most of these have gotten fan-patches to disable the security checks. I imagine we'll see something similar with more modern games but for the always online features.

Usually with enough dedication you can track down and hack out the activated code - and if an old DRM system falls into disuse a lot of companies will just release the details on it making it even easier to patch out.
> First of all you don't know if it's cheaper.

Yes I do. The Antibody Test costs $42 and the vaccine costs $16/dose in the US today.

> Second, people are free to pay for anything they want regardless of how cheap it is.

Nobody was proposing that individuals pay for either one of these. The US Government should pay for it using taxes so that even the poorest citizen has access.

> I'm sure the vast majority of vaccine-sceptical people would readily pay for their own tests.

Letting people self-certify as a public health strategy has been problematic in the past and would be problematic here too.

> I've stated multiple payoffs multiple times already:

But they don't add up. Your "list" boils down to:

- It is unsafe (which is factually inaccurate).

- The vaccine may not add to natural immunity (which as I said, being cheaper and simpler than the alternative testing makes it still worthwhile).

- It is unsafe, and we live in a free society (which is factually inaccurate and irrelevant).

You've made zero arguments for why a cheaper and simpler safe vaccine is inferior to a more expensive and complex antibody test regime. That's because your entire argument hinges on "the vaccine is unsafe" and little else.
>If you think there are workers out there whose productivity is $26/hour, but who can't find work at more than $15/hour, then you can truly disrupt the market and hire all these workers for $20/hour and become rich.

How? If their productivity is $26 / hour but their market rate is $15 / hour, by paying them $20 / hour you'll just post lower profits than companies that pay them market rate.
More than the gym, it's when you're biking/running or anything that uses active GPS tracking. That is the real killer. My garmin can last 7 days without GPS, and 7 hours with active GPS tracking.
This is such a great comment that adheres to exactly what my SO experiences. She is a UX designer, and she was the first one hired at her company. They had no idea what UX design is and all the processes, research, etc that takes place.

> I have observed that designers are less interested in educating the world about their practices than perhaps they need to be in order to change this situation.

She has found her job has become mostly informing and teaching others how to go about these practices, and if she has spare time does the work herself. But it was such an ordeal when they hired her because they didn't even know what she was supposed to do. She has acted very much like a consultant in this regard, but also does the work involved.
Well that assumes they actually stop work beyond the exact area to address the death/spill. Very few places run just one line after all you can keep running everywhere else. This also ignores the fact that we have contemporary and decades examples of factories continuing to operate as they continue to injure workers because even a death doesn't actually cause them to lose much without meaningful worker protections.
My issue is that I wear it overnight and through the day. And what happens is that around an hour before bedtime, the battery gets to 20-30% but since I'm not constantly checking, I forget about that and don't take it off my wrist to charge it.

The only low battery notification I get is at like 10%. It'd be handy (heh) at least if we could get better notification reminders that align with our schedules to know when exactly to charge the watch so there's enough power for a night of sleep.
It seems that’s pretty much by design these days. Most fines are not high enough to be a real deterrent.
You could, if you also had access to the same assets that the employers paying $15/hour do.

Practically speaking, it's relatively hard to enter into a market and outcompete existing firms for labor without a significant amount of capital to offset the existing assets of the employers you're competing with.

The other downside is that it can initially leave a business more vulnerable to a bad economy in the same way corporations buying back shares can make them more vulnerable. With that said, the solution is to slowly increase wages while also building a sufficient amount of capital to weather an economic downturn.

And at the end of the day, anything that went into business expansion and/or profits could have gone at least partially to higher wages instead.