> Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern extended the strict level 4 national lockdown to Aug. 27

> Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said elimination cannot be pursued forever [...] The way through is to get to those 70% and 80% (vaccination) marks, open safely

~34% of the population in New Zealand has received at least one vaccine dose [1], ~20% is fully vaccinated [2]. The rate of new cases jumped slightly at the same time last year [3].

New Zealand would definitely benefit from an increased vaccination rate, and strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are undoubtedly helping slow the spread of the virus while preventing hospitals from being overwhelmed.

However, such strict NPI policies are also preventing a significant portion of the population - people who are healthy and would likely be asymptomatic - from acquiring immunity through natural infection [12][13]. Paradoxically, this phenomenon may be prolonging and worsening the situation, because a significant portion of people will lack effective immunity against variants. Consequently, infections and cases may spike rapidly and uncontrollably, especially with variants demonstrating increasing transmissibility like delta. Moreover, strict NPIs are likely to create very bad winters in terms of endemic illnesses such as influenza and RSV, threatening to put even more strain on limited healthcare resources [11].

So while vaccination is definitely part of the solution here, it can also be complemented with other strategies such as early treatment using a multi-drug regime [4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. People who are particularly vulnerable - ie elderly with co-morbidities - should certainly quarantine until they've been fully vaccinated, but the tradeoffs involved in keeping everyone else locked down are not quite as obvious or simple to reason about.

[1] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand#w...

[2] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand#w...

[3] https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/new-zealand#w...

[4] Multifaceted highly targeted sequential multidrug treatment of early ambulatory high-risk SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19)
https://scholarlycommons.henryford.com/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?a...

[5] Clinical outcomes after early ambulatory multidrug therapy for high-risk SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) infection
https://rcm.imrpress.com/EN/article/downloadArticleFile.do?a...

[6] Early multidrug treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19) and reduced mortality among nursing home (or outpatient/ambulatory) residents
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03069...

[7] Multidrug treatment for COVID-19
https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/ddt/advpub/0/advpub_202...

[8] Ivermectin in combination with doxycycline for treating COVID-19 symptoms: a randomized trial
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33983065/

[9] Fluvoxamine: A Review of Its Mechanism of Action and Its Role in COVID-19
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fphar.2021.6526...

[10] Baricitinib plus Remdesivir for Hospitalized Adults with Covid-19
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33306283/

[11] The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/48/30547

[12] Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells
https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-37...

[13] SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN)
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33844963/