We already knew a couple of things about economists and economic forecasting:

- We knew economics can give Nobel prizes even in the same year, to practitioners defending absolutely and completely opposite theories:

"Nobel prize-winning economists take disagreement to whole new level"

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/dec/10/nobel-prize...
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/and-the-nobel-pr...

- Many were also aware that:
“The only function of economic forecasting
is to make astrology look respectable”
John Kenneth Galbraith

"Despite forecasters’ best efforts, growth is devilishly hard to predict"

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2016/01/09/a...

Or we could go less diplomatic :-)

"Joke about 364 Economists"
https://youtu.be/XB1ciodyM1w

So these officials were allowed to make decisions under the political pressures of the governments that named them. Their supposed independence will be used
by governments to excuse themselves from their responsibilities.
Its the usual trick of naming a commission
with selected experts to get the recommendation you want. Then you argue you are just implementing the
recommendation of the 'independent' commission.

The answer probably is that despite all the data and expertise, central banks know less than your average hedge funds or economics think-thank. These decisions were done
by driving blind.

I found this analysis unusually sober and
interesting (for JP Morgan work...):

"Entering uncharted waters: Understanding negative bond yields"

https://am.jpmorgan.com/sg/en/asset-management/per/insights/...

Some interesting bits:
-------------------------------

"Fixed income markets have entered uncharted waters, with over USD 17trillion of debt trading with a negative yield."

"The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities by Frank Fabozzi, widely considered to be one of the most trusted resources for bond investing, has no mention of negative yields in its 1,803 pages. And yet today, negative yields are pervasive around the developed world..."

"...Forced buyers are profit-agnostic: they are holding the bond for a reason other than making a profit.
One example of a forced buyer is a central bank buying bonds in order to achieve asset purchase targets.
In places like the eurozone and Japan, for instance, central banks own 21% and 48% of their own outstanding government debt..."

"Negative-yielding bonds overseas are weighing down yields in the U.S. However, without the adoption of NIRP by the Fed it is difficult, but not impossible, for bond yields in the U.S. to go into negative territory."

-------------------------------

Any analysis of what will happen next cannot be made based just on the Economics books sitting on your desk. For sure
would require a political, sociology and psychology expertise your average economist is probably not qualified for. Certainly not the ones at your average central bank.

The real fun will probably start if China and US tensions rise. The 10 year U.S. Treasury Yields was at 1.75% and its now at 1.15% and probably going now:

"10-year Treasury yield drops to 1.15%..."
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/02/us-bonds-treasury-yields-ris...

Hint to Economy academics. Predict US negative interest rates now! There is a Nobel prize somewhere waiting for you.