skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Agreed; someone who says "engineers produce their best work 2-3 years into a role" is a manager who has created an environment where an engineer's best work is produced 2-3 years into a role. This isn't a recognition of some universal truth; its an observation of the environment they had a hand in accidentally engineering.

It is similarly easy to envision an environment engineered to encourage engineers to produce their best work 3 months into a role; Give new engineers one really exciting, well defined, small greenfield project, after that move them into a legacy maintenance role, never give bonuses, raises, etc. I know I'd get burned out pretty quick; my best work would be very early on.

It is harder to envision a systemic change to encourage engineers to always have produced their best work yesterday. I'm not suggesting its easy; by far, the easiest and most common course of action is exactly the environment the parent commentator engineered, where engineers peak a couple years in. But, don't be fooled; the engineering division absolutely suffers in this environment, and it is possible to do better.
Facebook sells access to you. It's like those safe driving apps. They don't sell your data. But they sell access to conclusions drawn from your data. That's their entire business.
A stalker for hire who occasionally stalks somebody who's also a scumbag, if the money is right? Give me a break. Such lame defenses of the profession only serve to further damn it.

> comparing them to rapists belays naiveity and an agenda.

An agenda huh? I guess you mean it's personal to me? Well you're right; a former employer sicced such goons on me and one of them got nasty. That's my "agenda" pal; being a victim of this profession.
>you're dogwhistling that it's "the other side" that has the terrible philosophy.

I'm simply making the point that some political systems imply moving towards an ideal goal, others do not.

It isn't like monarchies (by far the most common setup) are moving towards some ideal beyond stability. Communism most certainly was viewed as a work in progress.

(side note: I'm sick of the term 'dog whistling'. That term itself implies a belief system.)
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The problem is that assets (even real assets) can be in a bubble when your central bank and government are injecting money into the economy. If you buy with borrowed money, and the bubble pops, then you own money on an asset whose value cratered.
I said "20 minutes by car"; I didn't say driving. Americans like to measure things in by-car distances. What I meant was "an hour's walk" or "45 minutes by bicycle."

I didn't own a car where I used to live. Whenever I needed anything in town, I walked two hours to town. (When I eventually got a bicycle, it was a big upgrade!) And this was convenience to me.

Many people, in many places in the world, live this way. It is a uniquely-first-world perspective to think that "living far from town" means living in some self-sufficient "own one of everything you need" farmstead/mansion. For most people, in most of the world, living far from town just means commuting to town, on foot, all the dang time.

People in most of the rural parts of India, or Nigeria, or China, still commute on foot to a town-center-ish area to get water. Together, that makes up most of the population of the world! You think these people should own color printers? When they only barely have electricity? No; in the rare, rare case that such a person would need to get a physical photo printed, they'd walk however long it took to get to "the big city", and from there, they'd go to a dang print shop.

Honestly, I think people are having a severe failure of imagination in this thread, if they think that the various different kinds of developed nation that HN users live in, collectively make up "80% of the world."
The oldest people will have a difference of maybe 40 seconds from the point they were born to their death.

There is nobody who can tell the difference, so I call bullshit on the thesis that the average person profits from this.

I haven't had to implement anything like this, but as an observer it just feels like a pointless effort.

But it's already decided, so we will have to live with it no matter how pointless it is.
> we will see cites change or depopulate?

Or neither. Cities since at least the Roman era have been considered "population sinks". That is, they often maintain or grow their population by attracting surplus population born outside of the city.

As an experiment, if you ever find yourself in a large city like San Francisco, New York, London, or Tokyo, ask around and note what fraction of the residents you meet were actually born in the city.
I live in SK, so I have a lot of things to talk about the birthrate.

The reason why the birth rate strangely low, is quite interwoven. TL;DR: People (think they) are not capable enough to raise a child.

First: Real estate prices is skyrocketing. This bizarre phenomenon began in the 2000s. The 17th administration completely reversed the situation, which became another problem, and the 18th administration made real estate prices to soar again. The 19th (present) administration tried to control real estate prices with complicated regulation, but it never worked so far.

Second: An educational craze. 386(1960s) and X(1970s) generations believe that children should go to the prestige university to survive in this harsh world. So they let their children go to 'hagwon'[1], something like cram school but really competitive. E.g. (a) Almost students in SK go to hagwon. (b) Some 6th~9th grade students study 10AM~10PM everyday in hagwon during the vacation, to pass an enterance exam specialized high school(10th~12th grade). (c) Some kindergartens promotes themselves as "English Kindergarten"; where every teacher and student speaks English.
The problem is -- because of these craze, a lot of childless family concern that they can't afford expenses for hagwon($300~400/mo in average. In the case of the above-mentioned entrance exam, It goes more than $1000/mo) so their child won't be happy because they'll fall behind when they grow up.

Third: Saving for retirement. Because of these problem, rearing child in Korea costs an arm and a leg. In the past, education was not overheated like this, and Korean-specific mindset forced family to give birth. However, starting with military administration's birth control policy, people changed their mindset, and now a significant number of people are more interested in saving for retirement than give birth.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hagwon
Indeed, it applies to any kind of optimization in general.
Here Comes the ES 2020 Feature Series You will learn new features, I promise
>I understand that you're joking here but the amount of good the dollar does so clearly surpasses the harm

This is the problem with your view of crypto, you fail to see the good
Besides, you could also live as if you make a million and still have 74 million a year after tax to save.
Autonomous racing drone claims landmark victory against human pilots
"Time-Optimal Planning for Quadrotor Waypoint Flight"
PDF: http://rpg.ifi.uzh.ch/docs/ScienceRobotics21_Foehn.pdf
Video: https://youtu.be/ZPI8U1uSJUs

ETH Zurich - Drone Racing
http://rpg.ifi.uzh.ch/research_drone_racing.html
German unification was unthinkable until the soviet union collapsed. Maybe in 25 years, the 2 Koreas will be reunited, making Korea an even bigger power on the global stage.
> Falling U.S. Treasury yields were adding to pressure, she said, adding: “If U.S. Treasury (yields) were much higher... we would have been talking about a different kind of level.”

This is a global phenomenon. Real 30-year yields are steeply negative in the US as well, with nominal yield at 1.85% and year-over-year CPI above 5%.

But it helps to zoom out. This is part of a multi-decade trend in ever lower 30-year yields stretching back to the Regan administration.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS30

I challenge anyone to find a channel that long and that persistent (except for possibly the CPI). Keep following and you make the prediction of nominal 30-year yields touching zero within 3 years.

Somebody is on the wrong side of this trade in a big way.

Those who say the inflationary spike is temporary and will mean revert are buying bonds with wild abandon because once you break zero, you can always go deeper negative. And as yields fall, bond prices rise.

Those who say we're on the road to permanent inflation and possibly more are looking for inflation hedges. The odd thing about this is that gold, the traditional inflation hedge has gone nowhere fast.

It's also possible that both sides are wrong and what will actually happen will be unlike anything that has come before in terms of the ferocity and diversity of forces at work and ultimate pain/suffering.

For right now, both extreme sides can point to data supporting their outlook. But for how long?
Animal Moments Caught on Camera
What about the nurses then? Because they've definitely caused a lot more damage?

Because one thing is illegal and the other isn't? In a society that holds laws relatively high that should be a super good argument?
Iran scheduled to peak in 2060: https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/iran-population
Deno (a Node-like runtime by the original author of Node) has a security model kind of like this [0]. Its unfortunately not as granular as I think it should be (only operates on the module level and not individual dependencies), but its a start.

[0] https://deno.land/manual/getting_started/permissions
And then I mentioned financial repression.

Also, Chinese companies are being paid in dollar debt that can easily turn out to be worth less than they though. China has all these reserves that, if they really push their model, must move in a big way towards zero. That's not good for them.
Whatever number you come up with, treat it as the median of a long-tailed distribution (if it matters, the lognormal).

To get the mean (expectation), multiply your estimate by about 1.6. To get the 95% confidence bound, multiply by 5. To get the 99% confidence bound, multiply your estimate by 10.

Understand why a distribution results in different numbers for different audiences, and why that's not the same as being inconsistent.

Use the mean for calculating sprint workload and capacity planning, because the average is what matters for that, not the accuracy of any single job. If your manager understands probability then give them all these numbers, otherwise give them the 95% confident value, which you should also give others internally who depend on that specific job being done. Give marketing the 99% confident number even if they understand probability, because they're looking for a commited deadline they can use externally. They will push hard for an early date because they want the work done quickly, but they actually don't want to hear your optimistic estimate. It's easy to make that mistake.

When requirements are understood, experienced developers are actually very, very good at estimating median completion times even just by gut feeling, but often fail to account for the distribution, especially when communicating with stakeholders, which makes them take heat when they're sometimes wrong by a factor of ten.
They run on temperature differences, that's how you get usable energy out of it. Google Carnot engine, there's even a super simple way to find the maximum efficiency just from the temperatures!
The Wikipedia article suggests 1000 m as a realistic height. How could such an epic construction project cost less than photovoltaic panels or mirrors and steam turbines?
I don’t think people are saying the only solution is open borders. More immigration is just the most obvious answer. It is possible in today’s world without relying on future technological developments. But when talking about UBI, people don’t look to immigration as a solution since they would need to be payed the same benefits as anyone else (unless this was some sort of two tiered society). UBI proponents then look towards automation as a solution.
I love how this was posted in reddit 2 hours before this comment. Who shot first?
I'm curious how Pinia works. I actually use MobX with VueJS and the way it has to hack itself into VueJS is a bit of a shame. I wish there would have been a more official integration point for third party reactive libraries.
That's fair, especially since in my opinion the first two examples are definitely unnecessarily flowery language for the topic.
NDAs should simply be illegal.
I loved this. It crystallizes some vague ideas and feelings I've had floating around for a while. Like kneejerk distrust of the typical over-reliance on A/B testing, while still having enormous respect for what it can provide.

And on the many small tools I build for myself because the mainstream workflow just doesn't feel quite right. Some of them are a hit for other people, most not, but it doesn't matter that much to me because I really am building for myself. And yet, I'm often confused why nobody else is implementing something that is so obviously an incremental improvement in my mind, even if it's not something that's going to double your productivity or address the Real Problem or whatever.
You still end up with a bunch of messages that end up saying "at time T I was at position X" where T is off in absolute terms (which you indeed can solve by using an additional satellite to synchronize your clock) and is measure with a different rate (which you cannot solve, unless you know a leap smear is occurring, or by using yet another extra satellite and some mathematics that I don't think anyone's ever bothered working out yet).
There's trying and then there's trying. Japan is doing the first kind, where you put some effort in, but it's kind of limp.

The other kind of trying is when you put vigorous effort into making it easier to have children. Dramatically ramp up childcare support. Strongly enforce anti-discrimination laws, particularly in the case of discrimination against mothers. Forbid employers from requiring more than 40h of work per week under certain (very high) compensation thresholds. Provide direct payments to parents that substantially offset the costs of additional children. Align housing policy with the need for larger dwellings for larger families, but still with decent commutes. Etc.
My personality is that, in the product lifecycle, I prefer the prototype to initial release phases. Initial conception has too much uncertainty - everything is possible but nothing is decided - and maintenance is boring.

I actually had a personality test where this was one of the things it measured. In my case, I think it did so accurately.
Oakland has less police per capita than most cities, so police tend to prioritize violent crimes. This has nothing to do with prosecutors. In fact, the last prosecutors election was an incumbent vs. a reformer. The incumbent won, so this has nothing to do with progressive prosecutors.
There are a lot of tools like this out there: SuccessFactors, Bridge, etc. And there's always room for more, imo.

What are you going to do differently? How are you going to gamify this in a way others don't?

I've worked in lots of places and interacted with many software portals that try to do this right. A lot of them falter by not keeping up with the actual current state of information within an organization (especially a rapidly growing one). Many of the courses end up outdated and they're really only useful for onboarding.

It's probably because of the time it takes and the friction needed to create a course or update a course. Because of that friction and because it's easier to just post to a Wiki / Slack channel / internal blog / etc. the small updates and changes, these courses sometimes languish.

Just questions that come to mind. And congrats on the launch. Wish the best for you!
> The idea that alien lifeforms we could recognize are visiting us and traveling in space is utterly ludicrous [...]

> I believe

There are a whoooooooole lot of assumptions being made here that don't seem to based in any kind of physical reality
Variant Analysis of the ‘Sequoia’ Bug
Yeah his problem was he wasn’t systematic. It was mostly impulse. He needed more focus and coordination (with allies, with industry).
Detecting Click Fraud, Analyzing Usage?
I'm a solo entrepreneur with a ~3-year old electron app that makes over $100,000/year, that is ever-so-slightly disrupting an entrenched software market with incumbents in the $20-30,000,000/year revenue range.

I offer a 14-day free trial of my app and sell/license it using a mixture of node-machine-id to register computers and JWT as the actual license signing. Users often register multiple email addresses to effectively get multiple 14-day free trials.

I don't currently enforce a number of times a computer can be "registered" in my system, and because of these lax rules I am seeing a lot of really interesting patterns. And by interesting I mean I suspect my competitors are somehow funding click fraud against my ads.

For example, I can see the same computer registered 27 times over the last year (every 14 days) to 27 different email addresses and widely differing IPs. However, when I run the IPs through online tools to analyze where they're coming from, it's almost always some kind of VPN via Amazon.

I fear that if I clamp down on how many times a user can register a computer for a free trial that the click fraud folks might know that I know... When I first saw these patterns I emailed about 30 of the addresses thinking that it could be a real user and offered them a free license - no reply.

Another thought I had was to build in a much more intrusive analytics feature that would only activate when the computer was registered >X times, offering me the ability to actually see if the software is being used. I even thought of adding something like Intercom so I could message these users real-time and offer them $X,000 USD for divulging who is paying them... something, anything.

I currently use ClickCease and the "detection rate" is about 10% of all ad clicks bounce or are VPN traffic, but it seems very concentrated on just two of my ad campaigns that are likely bid on by my competitors.

If anyone here specializes in this kind of work, I'd be happy to chat and compare notes, try out different services, etc.
Windows 10 blocks Potentially Unwanted Apps by default now
> When these big companies start to get older they always seem to prioritize the organization itself instead of the value they provide to customers.

Do ya think this is an age issue or a size thing. (or maybe a bit of both?)

I don’t have data to back this up, but it sure seems like once a company reaches a certain scale it becomes more about cutting quality than building a better product.

I absolutely recognize the forces that drive this and I could definitely be imagining a lot of it due to a growing sense of jadedness, but it sure feels true more often than not.
You come off as rather disingenuous in your way of conversation; pretending on one hand that you don't really know that much or have an opinion but in reality, it's something you've done a considerable amount of research in and have a strong opinion on. It's almost like you're a honeypot encouraging people to argue with you. It screams bad faith discussion and I just don't like it. Be honest in who you are, what you know, and what you stand for.

PS: There would be no BTC-based IMF, just like there's no gold-based IMF. That's literally the whole point of Bitcoin - decentralized finance with no need for an International Monetary Fund regulating its monetary policy.
Amateurs. Switzerland has a 50 year bond that was trading as low as -0.5%. Imagine that, paying CHF128 to get CHF100 sometime in 2070.

This comes with a whole new approach to finance, such as infinite duration mortgages (you never pay them back). And they even have those with a floating interest rate, in case you would like to bet your entire net worth on the idea that rates will stay this low till you die (and till your children, who will inherit the house with the mortgage, die, and till their children ...). Brave new world.
Emacs Lisp* has a system called "advice" that's maybe a bit clumsier than Python's, but is also more powerful. The relationship between decorator and decorated [is configurable][0]. For example, the decorated function could be called conditionally on the result of applying the decorator to the arguments, something like:

def _combined(args):
return decorator(args) and original(args)

It can also be applied retroactively, not just at the decorated function's definition. This is extremely handy in the context of configuring your text editor, but I admit I wouldn't like it in a program I was working on with other people. (Basically a form of monkeypatching.)

* Granted not really used for general-purpose programming like Python.

[0]:https://www.gnu.org/software/emacs/manual/html_node/elisp/Ad...
> globalThis

Thanks, I hate it from both a programming and a semantics standpoint.
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That's definitely not how German politics work
It would be unlikely to incorrectly assume that the language you are using is not in fact memory safe no?
Though I read the earlier post about batching launches, I'll admit that I was scratching my head trying to figure out what kind of startup would try to cater to pregnancy and desk rentals. Pregnancy + Child Privacy makes sense. Perhaps Life Sciences plays into it somehow too. But why throw in desk rentals as well? Can't blame my slowness on caffeine deprivation either. Anyway it was briefly amusing.
> But the main issue is that there's two leaders. We all know countries need two presidents, armies need two commanders, etc.

I can sense the sarcasm here, but I'm curious as to why this isn't the case? I'd imagine having two leaders provides more stability and thoughtfulness especially when it comes to executive decision-making, so what's the problem?
Portmod[0] is a package manager for game modifications (currently Morrowind and Doom), and it runs sandboxed Python scripts to install individual packages. So I think this is possible, but it's not a built-in feature of the runtime as is the case for deno.

[0]: https://gitlab.com/portmod/portmod
Hi,
Person currently in middle management here. While we'd love to pay our good people more, at a moderately sized company and up, we operate under an unbelievable number of constraints, from HR, finance, etc.