I am not arguing with bad faith. I'm just not ascribing higher value to your anslysis than to hundreds of others made by experts in the field of epidemiology, vaccinology and scientific medicine.

Just because you can find some data, take them out of context and arrive at results that are sufficiently scary for you it doesn't explain why should I prefer your layman analysis to results obtained by experts in the field, some of whom spent lifetimes to acquire specialist knowledge to derive information and the understanding from that data.

I'm gonna read your blog now. I read so many erroneus things about this pandemic and vaccine that I might read one more. After all it's still long road ahead of us.

...

You start by misjudging risk of covid. You don't have a 10% chance of getting covid, but almost 100% chance. Delta variant is effectively as infectious as smallpox and nearly everybody had it before vaccines for it.

You disregard completely what happens if you survive covid. Recent research shows that you can see reduction in gray matter in the brain of people who survived covid. Especially in the region of the brain that processes smells and tastes but not only. Also in areas involved with memory. Damage is similar regardless of symptoms. No damage was noticed in the same research in people who didn't get infected with covid yet.

Next you assume that risk of heart inflammation is zero in unvaccinated. Which is not true. It's roughly as probable for unvaccinated as what your calculation for vaccinated show. It's incredibly rare so it's really hard to establish if vaccine increases the risk, decreases it or has no influence.

Then you talk about people dying after vaccines again with silent assumption that people who didn't take the vaccine are immortal for the period that past since others got vaccinated. People die all the time for many, many rare reasons. When you observe closely such a large group some people will certainly die for various reasons.

Then you just throw a bunch of concerns randomly.

You claim vaccines cause other problems. But none (except allergy) could be proven by science so far despite billions vaccinated.

We don't know long term effect of vaccines. Sure, but we can say that of any new thing. So if that was a dealbreaker we wouldn't have agriculture yet. We have to estimate long term effects and people most able to do that all over the world are pretty confident we are safe.

Then you are concerned about vaccine influence on fertility. Which again comes only from misinformation. The only thing vaccine opponents tried to invoke, to make that connection is complete made up nonsense that even if it was true it would have any chance of any effect only in females during pregnancy. No nore ttoubles pregnancies were noticed in vaccinated women.

Next a concern about allergies (I'm allergic myself). In rare cases (few per million) vaccine can trigger anaphylactic shock in people who are prone to getting such shocks. This is very rarely fatal or leading to any further issues. Despite its rarity staff that does the vaccinations is aware of that and standard recommendation is to stay put for 15 minutes after you got a vaccine so they can help you in this rare event. This is potentially fatal and I think one person died because of it nation wide. You can check youself how many people prone to anaphylactic shocks dies from bee stings or accidentally ingesting peanuts or other alergens yearly.

Then you are talking about Delta variant and diseases becoming less deadly over time.

It's true for diseases that kill so many hosts before they can spread that it affects their ability to spread. Since covid kills comparably so few people it's in no danger of breaking infection chains by killing hosts. So it can easily afford to bump up its mortality by few percents and still spread just as well. It is just pure chance if it will get more or less harmful to us with time.

The only thing we can do is to rob the virus of opportunities to mutate. And we can do that only by reducing the number of infections and their length and severity.

Vaccine helps with that because vaccinated people are less likely to get infected or have severe infection where virus overruns whole body and replicates in way more cells (having more opportunities to mutate) than in mild infection.

Then we are back to mistrusting mRNA tech even though more knowledgable people seem to trust it.

I can tell you why I trust it more than other more traditional vaccine technologies. It's superbly clean. It makes your cells produce just one protein for limited time and in limited number of cells. Exactly the same protein that will also flow freely in your body in all the wrong places for a long time when you contract covid.

If there were any long term effects not caused by covid, just the vaccine it would have to be a miracle.

Then you express healthy dose of mistrust towards government and pharma which should not make you reject them wholesale, but rather make you look closely at their results which look fairly decent so far when it comes to covid vaccine.

Then you raise a very bizzare concern. If covid vaccine is not safe for people with allergies why would it be safe for other people? You can ask the same question about peanuts, eggs, dairy and literally thousands of harmless or beneficial things people can be severly allergic to and die when exposed to them.

Then you point out that many people already had covid which is regrettably true. However we need all the immunity we can get. Immunity is lasting but it's not 100%. People who had covid can get infected again (at least 1% cases), and Lambda variant happily infects people who already had covid (1 in 6). Vaccine most likely boosts your immunity after you had covid same way second and third dose of the vaccine boost immunity gained from first shot (as we deduce from raising levels of antibodies among other things).

That pretty much concludes vaccine related part of your blogpost. Next you just speak about societal reactions to people who ... well, we already talked about that. Who make the choices that make other people question if the limits of freedoms were drawn in the right place and whether maybe they should be little narrower.

I am sad to inform you that I haven't found a single original argument in your blog post. All of those I encountered before and research thoroughly till I understood that they are wrong and why they are wrong. That's why I could take the vaccine with complete peace of mind. My elderly mother and her partner got vaccinated too and now I'm way less anxious about my health and their health and lives. As for the pandemic I think it's going to be a close call and I just hope that masses of unvaccinated people won't be the thing that lands us on the wrong side of the edge between lasting safety and truely lethal pandemic caused by more deadly and infectious strain.

Btw covid vaccine hesitancy is in large part a result of general vaccine hesitancy which is direct result of scam ran by Andrew Wakefield. If you are interested in the subject I can recommend youtube movie about vaccines made by HBomberGuy.