skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> It is extremely plausible because the epidemic started next to the lab. Look at the size of China. Take a map of the country and throw a dart at it.

First of all, that seems to completely ignore the uneven distribution of population. Your fléchette assumes a uniform distribution. Yes, China is large, but Wuhan has a population of...what, ten million people? It's China's ninth largest city as per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_China_by_pop... .

The last time something like this happened was in Foshan, thirteenth largest city as per the same page. This does not seem to be a coincidence according to https://health.ucsd.edu/news/releases/Pages/2021-03-18-novel... , where it is argued that in large cities, you have a much greater chance of getting a pandemics from a small number of cases. So if the possibility of emergence of a pandemics of SARS-CoV viruses is heavily weighed in favor of the largest Chinese cities, perhaps your "Occam's fléchette" has actually a ~5% chance of hitting Wuhan or something like that -- maybe more depending on geography and population movement patterns and wildlife trade patterns, who knows? I haven't seen any models of this yet that would predict the most likely locations for the next pandemics. Maybe someone will make those this time.

I'm also not sure what you mean by "next to the lab". Like right outside of it? I doubt that.

Furthermore, some people seem to be clinging for dear life to the first epidemic cluster described and completely ignoring the fact that in general, existence of such clusters means that the disease had already been circulating at that time, perhaps for months. You simply have no idea where the original Wuhan cluster caught the disease from.

Hell, we had no idea where the first SARS came from until over a decade later. Then they found some bats in a cave over 1000 km from the first cluster in Foshan, bats with coronavirus strains the most similar to the original disease than anything else they'd found so far. Surely you're not arguing that those bats were released from a lab?
> People treat their cast irons as if they're fine china. The reality is they've been used for hundreds of years for cooking, without complicated maintenance routines.

Cleaning with water and not-too-abrasive tool plus initial and periodic long heating with oil aren't complicated, they are just different from the convenient methods applied for more modern cookware.
Communism is unpopular because it says people on average are unimportant and the "greater good" is more important. Most people aren't going to glom onto that when they realize that's the real result as easily demonstrated in any number of failed communist countries, even China gave it up and moved to a more totalitarian one party system that allows some free market ideas in. apparently they're even moving to a dictatorship steadily rather than communism.
Does anyone know if Starlink is ipv6?

I've been using ipv4 because I use LTE with ATT or TMobile links for the past 7 years (RV full time) and I can't wait for a modern internet connection that doesn't suck.
Maybe this one?
https://i.imgur.com/avjsowj.png
Nitpick: factoids are unverified and mostly inaccurate and false.
Facts are true.

Edit: corrected factoid definition to be a bit more accurate.
You're using the wrong units and you're off by more than an order of magnitude. A decent large fridge will use like 500Wh/day.
> This is pretty much the first time I've heard of AWS really deprecating something,

I think the only other service that was ever deprecated was SimpleDB, which was replaced with DynamoDB.
The clustering could possibly be leveraged into an anti-polarization tool, if you start promoting the content within each cluster that is the least objectionable to opposite clusters. Basically, show leftists the leftist content that rightists like the most/dislike the least, and show rightists the rightist content that leftists like the most/dislike the least. I assume this system for countering echo chambers would require good clustering.
I know there is actual nuance to both articles. I guess I'm just trying to express my frustration at how the two headlines seem to directly contradict each other.
Why do you think consensus will never be reached? In the face of mounting evidence it seems to me the move of short-term focussed actors from a denial to a delay strategy is well underway. This demonstrates strong consensus on the fact our climate is dangerously drifting I think. Investing in military is only as good as your ability to keep a civilian society able to feed that military. At one point all you got yourself is one more mercenary tribe...
64 characters? Why would they do that?
Uncertainty is huge in innovating. If nobody's done it before, it's hard to know if it will actually work. That's the part that needs to get done first.

If you hire a consulting agency and for some reason they prioritize the easiest and most known task...

You still have no evidence they can complete the hard thing.
LinkedIn has one for SRE new grads - https://linkedin.github.io/school-of-sre/
Holy crap - is this one of the first actual depreciation and get off service things AWS has done?

Kind of crazy honestly? They were kind of famous for NOT doing this sort of thing - at all.

GCP just announced enterprise API's I see with some (pretty vague) promises about longevity.
Google postpones RTO to October 15 and requires vaccinations
Why do people need electricity, really? The only time they come in handy is for charging your phone so you can get driving directions, or hacked.
If your boss understands software development, then the "dangerous" situation of being asked to do "easy" (but actually hard) things disappears, because your boss will understand that the "easy" things are actually hard, and the "hard" things are actually easy.
> When you include that necessary fact, it becomes the most parsimonious.

That's just wishful thinking on your part. That's still not enough evidence in that direction at all. You have large, dense cities in China and people trading wildlife food. There's millions of them in a cramped space. That's a breeding ground for infection, with millions of opportunities for mutations.
"...many of his opinions may seem like Cold War relics in the present age. As for the Soviets, "I can't understand those who think there's any good in signing treaties with people who have cheated for 40 years." And he believes the Communist Party probably has infiltrated, or at least influenced, campuses, churches and environmental groups; assumes that there are Russian "sleeper" agents soon to awaken; and regards incidents like Three Mile Island as suspicious "pseudo-emergencies." The growing frequency of such "public panics" may serve to keep Americans distraught and confused: "It is possible that the disinformation boys are doing their jobs." And Ginny, a talk-radio fan, says she has "recognized certain terms that are either clearly communist" or the product of callers who are "very well indoctrinated."

Sounds like Heinlein would have felt at home as a Trump supporter or member of the alt-right.
Not to talk past each other’s: The definition of causal statistical identification is a formal one, but builds on the axioms of probability theory. The philosophical and even physical underpinnings of these axioms are, as they have always been, part if a heated debate.

However, the system is indeed consistent. And so, in this framework, neither true randomness (which is not a concept that has a definition here) nor independence is mathematically required for causal identification, instead, the switch variable needs to be uncorrelated to unobservables (and so on). That it needs to be correlated to the target variable is obvious, as you say. That is all tautological and simple to show.

I should also note that both independence and correlation are defined in terms of statistical properties that can hold irrespective of whether the world has true randomness. In a way, think if statistics as tying to the world that we see (the data) a consistent way of understanding and inferring. Now, whether the world actually works in terms of measures and moments, well, that is another question. And, I would propose, one that will be difficult to decide, in that it transcends our best ability to work with observational facts.

Note that there are other conceptions of causality and inference, distinct from statistics. I have worked with a group using models without any randomness, relying instead on the modeling of fully deterministic chaotic systems. They can indeed also fit the data, even if they are less practically useful.

As it turns out, a procedure of identifying causality, getting useful results, looks not too different.

So yeah, I think we agree in basic terms. In your view, causality as it is typically applied is fuzzy since its axiomatic framework does not arise from physical, philosophical or perhaps metaphysical facts as you believe or know them to be true. In my view, causality is fuzzy because any pragmatic definition, including one based on experiments, is based on assumptions without which causal identification is impossible. For instance, no matter what experiment you construct, we will need to assume that the operator switching randomly has not been paid money to choose a predetermined sequence by some James Bond villain. Of course, only one of us can be the operator, and so any pragmatic definition of causality (in being communicable) will eventually be fuzzy.
That and we haven't built enough houses to keep up with population growth. Not enough house building was done in the aftermath of the great recession.
I don't believe that subjecting someone to the same punitive system they have an outsized influence over is a bad thing. I believe it's necessary, so that when they get out, that they work to change it lest they return one day. The funny thing about contrition is that you usually need to be forced into it.
I guarantee the average home buyer does not know that houses are a hedge against inflation. There's a good chance the average home buyer doesn't even know what hedge means in that context.
I’m not predicting this, but if the Fed has to chase inflation by raising rates that would be very detrimental to housing prices.

Heard from a friends dad, he bought a 1.2 million house in the early 80’s. He had a $10,000 a month mortgage.

Can you imagine? Obviously early 80’s rates were incredibly high, but that’s what high interest rates can do to mortgage payments.

Haven't had rising interest rates in over a quarter century
That's around 65 square meters? Where do they make studios that large?
Yep, it's a trap, 99%. Intel will be happy to waste lots of money (and investments) to kill wanna-be server CPUs manufacturer. Why earn a bit when you can future proof your possition ?

And morphing into fab ? Numbers renaming is not the same as finally not failing to deliver lower nodes.
hmm I don't recall QE and trillion-dollar stimulus being a 'thing' in 2004-2006. Or the 80s and 90s. The fed began to raise interest rates a lot in 2004 but the housing boom continued for 2 years later. I think it just comes down to shortages and speculation.
Or sales fall to a low because people who wanted to move out of smaller places in a city pull back when they see what the prices are like. (But people who can afford it are still bidding prices up.) And, yes, while lumber prices have apparently headed back down, access to builders/contractors is still tight.
Funny how this thread basically proves the author's point. Even with most of the replies that claim to agree with her, they include one or two "tips" on how to handle cast iron. If you collected all of the advice and tips in this threads into a single set of instructions, it would make zero sense. Somehow the internet has turned most basic piece of cookware into the most confusing thing in the kitchen.
"wildly outdated data" ... you mean only data comparing outcomes in placebo versus vaccine groups?

To summarize: Placebo and treatment arms showed no difference in deaths. However, placebo arms were nixed prematurely and therefore we have no controlled and randomized studies comparing individuals who received the vaccine with individuals who did not receive the vaccine. That was the original claim. When you questioned that claim and you were shown evidence that the original claim was correct, you chose not to say "Thank you."

Instead, the downvote bandwagon is out because apparently facts are too much to bear. sigh
Show HN: The most enjoyable way to write a thesis, paper, or blog post
Indeed. Sometimes the saviour is the one responsible for the disaster but companies also need their heroes or at least that's how I interpret certain management decisions. Been on both sides of the fence.
Substack isn’t for journalism. It’s for opinion articles. I think it’s an awesome platform and I’m glad it exists. But it’s not journalism imho.
Call me crazy, but I think you should be taxed on your actual usage. Just like your annual inspection reads your odometer, it should just read the petrol vs EV distance from the built-in computer and you should get a tax bill in the post. Got a plug in hybrid and drive it nearly always in EV mode? Great, zero tax for you. Got a plugin hybrid but drive it exclusively on petrol? You'll be taxed the same(or more) as a regular petrol car.

The issue with standardised tests for this stuff is that it really depends on individual usage. We should be punishing polutting usage of the car, not what the "average" it can do, since it's meaningless.
Today's soaps aren't damaging to cast iron and aren't powerful enough on their own to remove baked on seasoning. This myth persists because it used to be true, old soaps used lye and vinegar, which were effective at doing things you didn't want with a cast iron skillet/pan.
That's ok. It's not hard to find organizations to work at such that not helping them out is either not really harming or actually improving the world
And since being vaccinated would have saved most of those 10k people and like a small handful have died from all of the vaccines across all age groups, and a small handful is orders of magnitude smaller than 10k. It does seem like a vaccine mandate even for under 40s is the smart thing to do.

That doesn’t even get into the benefit of preventing long Covid and being able to open the economy faster with fewer restrictions
Software engineering, have been doing it professionally for over 11 years.
So have the problems with IPV6 leaking information (mostly IPs I think) when using a VPN been fixed yet? DNS leaks and such used to be a problem.
Faster mobile connections
> Maybe aggressive able bodied young men should take their country's future in their own hands instead of bringing problems to Europe?

Sure, maybe stop interfering with their country then? Also, it's still going to be Europe's problems for generations after the west generally stops interfering with other countries. Until then, "deal with it."
> If you’re worried about people cheating by passing the questions around

I think the worry is candidates can quickly look up answers and build up a conversation around it right before the interview.
Even if they couldn't get to the complete answer ahead of time, enough grok'ing on the specific problem statement and possible solutioning could show an interview enough signal to give them a pass.
It compete fails to mention historic low interest rates of the last year. Thats been one of the biggest factors. Folks should bear that in mind.
Isn’t what you just said technically a factoid?
If you're "siding", you aren't "honestly believing". You're choosing what you want to hear and believe, rather than choosing truth.
The Shiller index is a bit of a lagging index:

https://twitter.com/HousingRalph/status/1420020332774137856
Thanks for the clarification, I admit my knowledge of Dante is mostly coming from high school,and we (I assume) ignore English scholars
Pumping sulfur up, a dangerous game if you can't keep doing it all the way to the time when CO2 scrubbing fusion plants save your crispy bacon.
There is a recent book named: under a white sky.
How is this a nitpick? He used the word factoid correctly.
I’m not sure I understand your “less likely” remark. Are you conceding that Israel is doing most of the oppressing of Palestinians? Or do you mean that you wouldn’t feel terrible about Israeli land-theft/killing/jailing/apartheid because of Iran and Hamas?

While we are on this topic: how is this a “both sides” issue? Let’s keep it simple and not try to compare Israel oppression of gazans to the Hamas/Iran oppression. Please explain to us how does Hamas and Iran oppress West Bank Palestinians?
Most homeowners have fixed rates. A rise in interest rate will only make the house underwater in value and not affect their monthly payments
ElectricBrands Crowd Campaign
BlackRock might skew the average there.
The moon landings were faked and the government chose the premier director of the era to do it. None other than Stanley Kubrick.

Kubrick was a perfectionist and stickler for details. His background as a photographer always showed through in the cinematography of his films. After extensive field testing, he chose to conduct the filming in the only way that he felt was able to adequately capture the unusual environment of the lunar surface using practical lighting techniques: he filmed all of the scenes of the mission and landing on-location.
I went to college for art, but had to drop out due to high expenses. I became a self taught programmer, starting with game development. That didn’t pay off, of course, but it was intrinsically interesting which allowed me to learn useful tech in my own way.

I did some work creating Wordpress sites for a branding company. Then I got an internship at a south CA game dev company. It was clear that I had a lot to learn still, but I wasn’t discouraged yet. I found a full time software job at a small educational software company, which I enjoyed but started to feel fatigued with learning about modern front end dev.

I had to leave due to money issues. I was barely paying rent and Amazon offered twice my salary for a support eng position. I was mislead into thinking that I’d be creating tools, but instead I was spending all day and night on tickets, alerts, and deployments. This is when I burned out, and I couldn’t force myself to learn any more. It was a scary thing because my ability to learn new things was the only thing I could depend on. I was on a PIP and eventually left.

SDE recruiters don’t contact me now that I had “support” in my title. I got a couple I interviews which I bombed due to not being able to study for the position.

I’m on a support role at another FAANG now. It’s cushy and pays well but I’m struggling every day due to trouble focusing and how repetitive things are. My memory isn’t good, which makes remembering teams, names, and processes difficult. It has been an overall very difficult period.

I’m likely going to be let go in the next couple months because I won’t go back into the office. I’m worried about what will happen and don’t have any real plans. I can live on savings for a couple years but it would be stupid to do so.

I’ll likely have to find another tech job soon. I haven’t been studying so it will be difficult to interview and do the job. I’ve been coasting on what I learned during my early years. Hopefully I can find something remote.

Hope my story helped. Best of luck to you and anyone reading this.
Arctic sea ice disappearing fast
I remember reading an article about the effect of highways creating a virtual perimeter that the genetic diversity of the wildlife within it degraded to such a low variation over generations and as a result those animals were exhibiting negative defects.

Here’s an example where we’re finally thinking about undoing some of the harm:
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/animals-are-using-...

I believe in some European countries they do these more frequently.
So what are the actual benefits? I’ve seen comments here previously claiming that the nm numbers have no bearing on physical reality and are more of a marketing gimmick. If that’s the case what can we expect with 2nm?
Apple, AMD, and Intel shift priorities as chip shortages continue
I think most people get into hard "easy" problems not because they want, but because those problems usually have a lot of opening positions.

Low level programming, on the other side, does not have a lot of openings. The majority have to do those hard "easy" problems for their life.
Huxley frequented Orange County. The monastery I regularly attend (Ramakrishna Monastery in Trabuco Canyon) was previously a college (The Trabuco College of Prayer), as mentioned in the piece, for prayer and study of mysticism to which Huxley was a part of the construction of, alongside Gerald Heard and others [1]. The college only lasted 7 years (1942-1949) when the land was handed over to the Vedanta Society.

1. https://dissenttheblog.blogspot.com/2008/12/ramakrishna-mona...
The Surgeon General avoids using the word "avoid" on their warnings.
This gave me a great belly laugh
Ask HN: Log file visualization tool that isn't a webapp?
Are there any tools for easily analyzing/visualizing time series text logs locally that aren't webapps?

The world of log analysis/visualization seems extremely bloated with options now days due to all the SaaS startups.

I'm not looking to set up some cluster/docker/server stuff or load the data into a third party service.

Ideally I just want to pull some logs from my servers and analyze them locally.

Is there something better than excel for doing this?
Here’s why the prices are going up https://youtu.be/4c-QvcHeNMw - institutional buyers…
Possible, plausible, probable: Three viewpoints constantly at war :-)
Autovectorization has issues with function calls.

"#pragma omp declare simd" applies over a function call, which then allows that function to be used inside of a "#pragma omp for simd" loop.

A few keywords here and there really help the autovectorizer achieve closer to CUDA-like environments (like... actually having your SIMD code extend "through" a function call, so you can start splitting up the work a bit better).

EDIT: Here's an example from Intel's ICC: https://software.intel.com/content/www/us/en/develop/documen...
I appreciate, so much, that you call out and focused on proper spacing for layout.

This is hands down my biggest pet peeve with so many open source projects and an outright reason I won't use some of them.

Amazing job.
What the author is outlining is a management paradox when managing by indicators, combined with some egotrippin'.

It is hard to punish people for working hard and fixing something, when they are fixing something they created that was crappy from the start! And then the team that is highly-tuned and made a perfect design from the start shows very little improvement because it is already perfect. The indicators flip the script and make it hard to decide who actually deserves accolades. The correct answer is that they both do: one team for figuring out their mess, the other team for executing flawlessly. But the flawless people, in my experience, tend to have big egos and are offended by the seemingly equitable treatment.

The part about ego trip is the "always looking out for yourself." On the one hand, you have to promote yourself, on the other hand, you're part of a team. And manipulating the system to make to make sure you get preferred assignments backfires spectacularly. Which is why those folks tend to switch companies a lot.

I'm ambivalent about this. It can be taken as some tips as how to be be assertive by not getting shafted by evildoers like the author (remember that debate from last week on HN?), which are healthy. But there's also a lot of "me first" that'll get you shivved in the long run.
They know houses "always go up" and "a good investment", which is another way of saying the same thing.
The nice thing is that no matter what you do, they are pretty much recoverable by cleaning, possibly sanding, and re-seasoning.