skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Came to suggest this. Has a variety of applications.

And as you point out, if it's all or nothing, or massively increasing returns then the people near the cutoff/bend in the curve fight like hell to stay on the right side of the line instead of rebalancing the incentives.

Basically turns education into a lottery where everyone spends lots of money to buy a lot of tickets because there's no sensible alternative. So appropriate that one of the solutions is to run an actual lottery that you can't buy more tickets for.

Banning tuition seems like a surprisingly far-sighted move, wonder what else they'll come up with and how it'll work out.
I think the author is generally right that the format is difficult to do these days. Everything is on demand, and people are used to that. I certainly can't get used to sitting in front of a TV anymore and waiting for the scheduled programming, unless it's something that's really only possible at a certain time (think Super Bowl).

I think it's also true that Twitter has copied it with Spaces in a very useful way. I see it sometimes after a big event, people who are there anyway start it to discuss what they experienced.

But people wrote off Snapchat a few years back too, and apparently they're not doing bad these days even though I don't know anybody using it. Maybe the number of people online is so large now that you don't need total domination anymore to be successful, especially if only a small part of the users are creators and the rest just tunes in.
I would be curious to see the positive predictive value (PPV) of this test (i.e. given that you have a positive result, what is the probability of having the disease?), which is a very different quantity from sensitivity, which measures the probability of having a positive result, given that you have the disease. The answer to this question will depend on whom the test is administered to.

For example, given a test with 95% sensitivity and specificity for a disease that affects 1% of the population, if we administer the test uniformly to the population (i.e. without accounting for any prior probability of having the disease), the probability of actually having the disease given a positive test result is quite low, since the number of healthy people who get a positive test will be much greater than the number of sick people who get a positive test, owing to the fact that the vast majority of people are healthy.

The math for this is just Bayes’s rule:

p(disease|pos) = p(disease and pos)/p(pos) = p(disease and pos)/(p(disease and pos) + p(healthy and pos))

The highlighted term in the denominator is what lowers our PPV. We expect it to be much larger than p(disease and pos), since the fraction of healthy people in the population is much larger than the fraction of diseased population.

Expanding the joint probabilities, we have:

p(disease and pos)/(p(disease and pos) + p(healthy and pos)) = p(pos|disease)p(disease)/(p(pos|disease)p(disease) + p(pos|healthy)p(healthy))

Since our sensitivity and specificity are both 0.95, we have

p(pos|disease)=0.95
p(pos|healthy)=0.05

and since we administer the test uniformly, the prior probability of having the disease is the overall incidence level in the population, p(disease) = 0.01, so p(healthy) = 0.99

Plugging these numbers in, we get

0.95*0.01/(0.95*0.01 + 0.05*0.99) = 0.16

In other words, you only have a 16% chance of actually having the disease if you get a positive test.

The only way to improve on this number is to (a) construct a test with much higher specificity (hard!), or (b) only administer the test to people who are already more likely to have the disease than the baseline probability (i.e. pick a better prior, much easier!).

Given the figures in this article (99.5% specificity, aggregate 50% sensitivity) and an overall annual incidence of new cancer cases of ~450 per 100000 [0], we get a PPV of ~30% for GRAIL. This is probably fine for certain cancers, which can be followed up with minimally invasive additional screens, but too low for others, which would require invasive biopsies. I assume the actual PPV is much higher, since this test presumably will only be administered to a subset of people with a higher probability of having cancer, whose incidence rate is much greater than 450/100000. As I said before, I’d love to see what that number actually is.

[0] https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/understanding/statistics
>I'm used to retrospectives taking about 15-30 minutes, and even then we usually have to scratch around for things to talk about

Depends on the size of the team. For a 2-3 week sprint, and and team of 10-12 devs, a six hour relaxed retro is just barely time enough.
The is the generic “marketing sucks” drivel that unfortunately does better than it should on hn. There is no nuance or thought put into this post. This isn’t some novel idea.

Some research may have helped the author. They are literally incorrect (the author is talking about advertising, not marketing).
Why would anyone care at all about portability for grid storage? This makes no sense.
Yeah. With money, there are lots of problems such as this too. I agree that money is evil. But I think a system with money is slightly less evil than a system with no money.
Thank you for posting this here. It is exactly the kind of public service announcement other organizations need to see, because it will encourage them to question and reevaluate the benefits and costs of their relationship with Facebook.

If enough organizations change their behavior, I'm hopeful the folks at Facebook will be forced to change their behavior too. I mean, shouldn't be possible for Facebook to be profitable without also doing all those toxic/evil things?
I believe the limited view and interactivity offered by our small 2D screens at have a profound impact on our industry deliverables.

I like a small notebook but I also use a large translucent sheet for plans and sketches or a giant blackboard for collaboration.
Tomato fruits send electrical warnings to the rest of the plant when attacked
I believe that, these countries are strong-willed because they had enough time to develop on their own before the EU. I am from eastern EU and well, you can't go outside without seeing an EU flag, much less to a school (see other replies under my comment confirming this to be the case).

Today's children think this country was a shithole prison before it joined the EU, while in reality it was a pretty strong economy quickly recovering from the trauma of communism with opportunities booming everywhere, good educational system and well functioning healthcare and social system. Not even 2 decades and the history is rewritten - that's not good.
Thoughts on building and scaling data science teams
Also the Internet
> Simply pointing to "supply and demand" and operating by maximalist principle is a vague argument. You have to actually engage with the fact that housing can never be an ideal markets and that inelasticities are indeed great.

I never made a maximalist argument of any kind. I never said there can be an ideal market. I merely think that we should move towards an ideal market (which we will never reach) rather than on rent control (which is at best a band-aid).

> I'm not being a pure empiricist. A basic theory made an empirical prediction - that rent control would decrease supply - and the theory is wrong. You can't then use the same theory that made an already incorrect prediction to make a second prediction that is this time almost impossible to evaluate empirically. Find another theory and make an original prediction, without ex-post-facto retconning, and we can judge that theory on the merits.

The idea that some studies have falsified supply and demand is bizarre. You're assuming "inelasticities" and regulations are fixed for some reason.

Ease zoning restrictons and watch supply increase. Then enact rent control and watch supply decrease.
I'd say the spartan meme is also an example of art imitating art. Other greeks, and later Romans started this meme. They admired Sparta's dedication to conservative fanaticism, romanticized it and told stories about them. We still tell the stories, based on older stories based on older stories.

Meanwhile, we have very little direct access to "reality." In fact, unmediated reality is pretty elusive.. when you stop to think about it. Win rate statistics and other such "objective" views into reality are a pretty sparse source of information.
I was pretty much aware of their capability considering how delayed they launched their Android counterpart considering the Agora SDK was literally geared towards making cross platform stuff a breeze.
It didn't seem like any of that was the fault of OpenBSD to me. The monitor may have just been a bad choice. Especially when he had to get that additional expansion card to use it, and still had issues. I hope he finds a way to get back to 60hz someday.
A fair number of hospitals have been taken over by MBAs. The result is generally more money for the administration, and cost-cutting elsewhere.

Since the purpose of a hospital is not to make money but to improve health-related outcomes, this is usually bad.

On the other hand, it turns out that focus on improving health-related outcomes by applying science and statistics works really well... and usually decreases costs, too.
The new crop of X570 boards, labeled X570S or something, do not have a chipset fan. (Also on the original ones, the fans might've had full silent modes where they only spin up when pushing big PCIe bandwidth over the chipset?)
I don't really know anything about this but every time I read these analyses using Benford's Law I don't understand why anyone would expect Bitcoin's exchange rate to begin with the digit "1" ~30% of the time. Once you're not talking about human-guestimated numbers, it seems more like a question of scale factors. If bitcoin's value fluctuates between 30k and 70k it's never going to start with a "1". Or if its value fluctuates between 120k and 180k then it's always going to start with "1". That's where I struggle trying to understand how Benford's Law is supposed to provide any insight.
Not in a reasonable time frame. Do you really believe we could fully automate all dishwashing over the next decade?
Ask HN: What are the best alternatives to Webull or Robinhood?
Hoi Hacker News community!

I am a Dutch student and recently relocated to the US. Back in the Netherlands I used to trade via Degiro (some stocks and super limited options trading), which was not even commission-free for the stocks. After moving to the US and trying Robinhood and Webull I fully realised how terrible Degiro actually was..

To my surprise I keep hearing that there might be even better retail brokerages than what I'm using now. Would be glad to hear your suggestions!
Transaction costs.

Everytime a lease is signed there are transaction costs and they are not immaterial.
People kept saying, "Josh, you have to get on Clubhouse. It's growing fast. A land grab. People are staking claims. You could be the sustainability guy on the site. Don't miss it." I don't use Apple, so had to borrow a friend's old phone to try using it.

I participated in a few conversations and met some people, but that's what I would have done otherwise. I'll still participate in it sometimes, but the iPhone has been sitting in the closet for a while and I haven't installed it on my regular phone. I don't regret the time I spent on it, but will be more prepared for the next trendy trend: "Oh, you mean like Clubhouse?"
French government threatens unvaccinated people with jail
> FB - nobody really seems to be posting anymore. Insta - two people actively posting on my feed

Their actual engagement numbers across the general population are quite good. This sounds more representative of your bubble using different platforms than the general state of the app.
That may be true, or untrue.

However, citing a stat from before anyone was born, isn't helpful in a modern context.

Replying to this with "it is still true, because", now that your citation fell flat on its face, may not be the best strategy.
I'm not aware of any world war occurring between 1989 and 2004.

Edit: I see what you mean now. What I wanted to say was "before joining EU" (so pre-2004), I didn't mean 1950's or pre-war period.
There are hordes of SBA dollars floating around, looking for a home.

Havent you seen the fed's balance sheet?
It is the same as the government IT problem: if you can make much more money in private practice, why would you work at a hospital or government? Selling software to the hospitals or government is a better deal.
For work, I'd definitely prefer resolution over refresh rate, and 4K120 is still too expensive sadly. Agree on the mouse, non-gaming mice are bad. What's wrong with the 980 Pro?
Oh, thanks! I hadn't realized that was an option.
I don't see starting average pay on the OOH website, only median pay.
It’s not censorship if some admins (private persons) decide they don’t want it. Try discussing Windows topics in a Linux subreddit.

If I had a blog with comment function and someone writes a comment I don’t like I’m not forced to publish it. It’s the same situation.

The solution is of course decentralization and self hosting communities and not blaming reddit for decisions of individual admins.
I equally find it strange that people continue to come to hackernews- the Silicon Valley VC startup land - and can’t grasp that the infrastructure for programmable money might have some value. And write off p2p communication and coordination tools as zero-sum/ fraudulent games. And then wish for the government to ban other people’s jobs and hobby’s and communities because they don’t like it.

Blows my mind that people might spend their day coding, and night playing mmorpgs, and still not understand crypto. I guess we need better UX and storytellers.
Very few people in the hn comments have a marketing degree so they were not taught that marketing has actual economic value in disseminating information so consumers can make rational choices. Many top comments on hn think that the world could exist without marketing because consumers would just automatically know about every single product ever, and never need anything new.
Not the US, but 2 of my siblings have worked in Amazon warehouses in the UK and it's the same story. The pay is decent, the work is simple (if physically taxing), and plenty of overtime is available. Only downside is the warehouses tend to be outside bus/train routes so getting there without a car is an arse, but Amazon set up shuttle buses to compensate for that.
Ed Zitron, the guy who wrote this, is a publicist. Whenever I see a publicist taking time out of their busy schedule to publicly tear down a brand, it always makes me curious about their current/future client list
Be careful what you wish for!
What is the difference between
https://codereview.stackexchange.com and this? Aren't they the same (Stack Exchange Code Review)?
The search alone is worth it. Searching in regedit means pressing F3 (find next) an zillion times.
like this struck me.

“poor man! who had no wife, and no children and dined alone in lodgings except for tonight; and in pity for him, life being now strong enough to bear her on again, she began all this business, as a sailor not without weariness sees the wind fill his sail and yet hardly wants to be off again and thinks how, had the ship sunk, he would have whirled round and round and found rest on the floor of the sea.”

It’s just a little metaphor but it’s drowning again, specifically a feeling in a common situation (they are at dinner) is likened to a sailor feeling as though he’d prefer to have drowned. Or

“he relished the thought of the storm and the dark night and the fishermen striving there. He liked that men should labour and sweat on the windy beach at night; pitting muscle and brain against the waves and the wind; he liked men to work like that, and women to keep house, and sit beside sleeping children indoors, while men were drowned, out there in a storm.”

I feel like there’s another passage I’m forgetting.

Really though the author only needs to use the imagery of drowning a few times before it looks like a tic. It can be that she is English. They’re so very nautical!
More protein folding progress – what’s it mean?
The author at statsmodeling.stat.columbia.edu is the person who wrote several of the books on things like this. I don't think he can be finger-wagged away quite so easily as that.

There's a huge difference between this and the election one, which is that this one is working with data that satisfies the key statistical assumptions needed to properly apply Benford's Law, and the QAnon elections rigged claims didn't. (Or at least the ones I know about offhand - I don't use Benford's Law at work, so this is not really my area of expertise.)

The big one you need to look for is that the variable spans multiple orders of magnitude.

Berkshire Hathaway going back to 1980 spans three orders of magnitude, so we're good there. Note that we could not use Benford's Law to look at BRK going back only 7 years, but that is not because it's not enough data. It's because that would cover only 1/4 of an order of magnitude.

BTC going back 7 years is also decent. It's not quite as good - only spanning two orders of magnitude - but it's enough that we would expect Benford's Law to apply better than it does in this graph.

By contrast, a lot of the cases where people thought they were using Benford's Law to uncover electoral fraud, the data only covered a small fraction of an order of magnitude. It's just silly to expect 1 to be the most common leading digit in a set of data that's constrained to the range [300, 600].

I don't know that this is compelling evidence of fraud or manipulation in BTC, but it at least seems like clear evidence that BTC doesn't behave like other securities. There's something unusual going on that merits further investigation. Perhaps it is just a shortcoming in the statistical model being used. But, since this isn't a big data conference, it's not sufficient to just keep hitting the "need more data" number until you finally get the number you want.
Doesn't make much sense to me. I thought the whole point of BSD is to run old hardware [for various reasons]
There always is, though with desktops you can hand-pick the PSU and mainboard (and graphics card if using a dedicated one) to not have the whiny kind of inductors. Or you can add ambient noise, or listen to music :)
> There is a fairly high chance that beta iOS would smoke even Debian stable out of the window in term of stability for end users.

You could not have chosen a worse example distro to throw in your flawed presumption. Debian is one of the most rigorously tested and sought after distros specifically for its stability.

There's nothing wrong in you preferring to use Windows or Mac. But throwing unsubstantiated claims around is foolish.
Scams and self promotion too. :-)

The speed of people adding and then ignoring outpaced Google Plus.
I unfortunately don’t know how the numbers break down. However, I see a lot of people that use Facebook for groups. As a result, I wonder how much of their engagement is driven from people posting inside of various groups that might be private.

It might lead to the situation that OP describes where most of the “forum” conversation has died down but it’s thriving in various segments.
We can't change the past so have decades to centuries of climate change to handle, but we can do a lot more to stop future contributions to climate change.

The biggest effect anyone can have, beyond fewer kids, less meat, and flying less, is learning to lead others, which multiplies our effects. Of course, to lead others we have to lead ourselves first, which means fewer kids, less meat, flying less, and all those, as means to the end of leading others, especially CEOs and elected officials.
I thought this was going to be something like "please stop killing them just because they're pretty" and was disappointed.
Unpaid doesn't always mean that it's the least glamorous (in the absence of compensation for anyone). Take anything on Dirty Jobs, for example. If you're talking the difference between washing laundry and cleaning out septic tanks most people would prefer one over the other in the absence of other pay.
WORLD’S GREATEST PLACES OF 2021 – 100 extraordinary destinations to explore
Except at the end of the day catering for 1% of the desktop is too much to ask for to cripple business operations with, when 99% of everyone else is coming in with Windows and macOS laptops.
Exploring what happened to Data Science Jobs during Covid-19
I scraped job lists to explore a few interesting things, including:

- How many Data Scientist jobs were listed, how did it compare to a year ago (pre COVID), and where are these jobs located?

- Which programming languages (and tools) are most in-demand for Data Scientist roles?

- What kind of salaries are Data Scientists earning, do salaries differ by language and geographic area, and have they changed at all in the past year?

- What are the differences in the way recruiters hire vs how employers hire?
> If this was true, why are the most boring jobs not paid the best?

Likely because many of those boring jobs have many more people qualified/capable to do them than there are spots to be filled. Even though we seem to need a lot of people to take goods out of totes and put them into cardboard boxes, there are a lot more people who are able to do that work than spots needed.
> I just checked and just the DB4 seems to cost >200€ here in Europe

True, but you would likely spend about 100€-150€ for a decent case + CPU cooler (e.g. noctua) anyway. If you consider that, then the DB4 is actually not that expensive.
isn't this mainly because paying in anything other then the national currency is illegal in most western nations?

For tax purposes, even things like free lunch are considered paymeny aswell.
Ask HN: What toolkit to build a cross platform native app for fun?
I'm looking to start a little hobby work on an idea I have, and want to build an application that has the potential of being cross platform.

I am very experienced with React, have shipped applications using Swift/Obj-C on the app store. I want to build something that has the potential to be fast on multiple (particularly full OS) platforms (mainly so I can throw this work to my various friends to dogfood).

Fun is probably more important than cross platform. I want to enjoy myself.

What would you recommend around UI toolkits nowadays? The options I'm thinking about currently are:

1. Common code in Rust or something, UI code in native platforms.
2. React Native for Windows/Mac.
3. Revery (ReasonML/OCaml UI library built for onivim): I've been wanting to play with this for a while, only downside is they don't support M1 natively yet, and an M1 computer is my daily driver.

The downside of JavaScript projects like in (2) is that I deal with those daily for my main work, and I hate package managers, cross compiling, babel, etc etc, they vastly reduce the fun.