While slightly off topic , I wrote about this subject on Reddit when someone said Android allows it and hasn’t lead to serious App Store fragmentation on that platform so I’ll just copy and paste here:

There’s a reason for this that I’ve been thinking about and it all comes down to Pushing Power. Android , on its own, doesn’t have a lot of “pushing” power because it’s not monotheistic. It requires all the players in the game to play nice in order to make something the norm. If Samsung or Google does something in their own, it doesn’t have the pushing power to turn the industry (only really Androids). Google could have that pushing power, but their reputation of killing and rebranding services hurt them. There aren’t assurances that they won’t kill something so there’s no backing of it. And this affects everything down to the developers of the platform.

How can one push anything on such a platform ? The Google play store will probably have the average consumer’s wants and there’s too much friction of installing another store for one thing. This lack of Pushability works since Android likes to churn out razor-edge and innovation features, even if these features don’t talk to each-other like iOS users often expect, and it doesn’t matter if these features are 100% baked.

But iPhones is a different story. It’s probably one of the most powerful pushing platform there is. Think about it. Apple was able to remove the headphone Jack and sell the solution. Neither Google nor Samsung has the pushing power to do that since their customers can just get a similar experience elsewhere. They need Apple to do the “crazy” thing first and just follow suit down the line once Apple has successfully done it. Because in the end , no matter what Apple does, there is no where else we can ever get the parity with the seamlessness that is the iPhone. And as a result it has pushing power.

And this extends to its Apps to. I bet Android Tablets are great (I actually own one my self but never use it). But I’m also willing to bet an artist is going to Choose the iPad every single time because in the end Android does not have Procreate nor an App that can approach the experience of procreate. Procreate, by being an Apple exclusive app , has Pushing power and if it were to move to an alternative store , users will follow. Mobile Gaming is probably the most popular gaming platform there is (crazy right) and I’m willing to bet a tenth of what whales put down that they would download a third party store if a game like Genshin Impact were to move and I’m willing to pay another tenth that they would absolutely become and Epic Games Store exclusive if they we’re offered.

Every one’s thinking that this will lead to more competition and better things for the consumer but that’s not how it’s going to go down. Here’s what’s going to happen:

If Sideloading and third party stores are permitted Epic will immediately start securing exclusive third party apps—not just games but apps to promote their store. They will pay the exact same book they play on Desktops because it’s the smartest play there is. Eventually they will get the app (I predict Spotify) that will make everyone have to download their store in order to use. They of course will also do this on Android as well but will be more successful this time since their success on iOS will go mainstream and affect android as it always does (think removing the charging brick). Other companies (I predict Google and Nintendo) will do this also and find success and the mobile device app Ecosystem will become exactly like the browser app Ecosystem (minus PWA probably).

TL;DR: Android is not a good indicator of what would happen if iPhones did what it does because it never is nor was. iPhones has always been the “pusher” of the mobile device industry, not in that it releases cutting-edge features first, but that it pushes what features are the norm. What happens on iPhones have a far greater impact on Android consumers than the vice versa. If you don’t believe so see: Smartphone boom (don’t matter who did it truly first but who did it truly right), removal of headphone Jack, removal of charging brick, faster adoption of NFC in US despite years of Android Phones having them, And Airtags.