skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
When you first pick a door, you have a 1/3 chance of it being the right door. There's a 2/3 chance of it being behind a door you didn't pick.

When the host then opens a door, there's still a 2/3 chance that it is behind one of the doors you didn't pick. However, there's now only one door in this set, so there's 2/3 chance that it's behind _that_ door.

To look at another way, imagine if the host didn't reveal the content of the door, but gave you the option to switch to BOTH of the other doors instead of your door. Your odds of winning clearly go up, as you now have two chances to win (and all are of equal probability). That's equivalent to what's happening here. By showing you the losing door of those two, he doesn't change anything - there's still twice the chance it was behind one of the doors you didn't pick compared to the one you did, and by switching you win if it was behind either of them.
> Professor of Economic History, Robert C. Allen, concludes in his study without the 1917 revolution is directly responsible for rapid growth that made the achievements listed above possilbe:

> * https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.50...

This paper admits that Imperial Russia growth was just as good or better then Soviet growth. They state:

> Japanese growth was based on institutional modernization that exceeded anything imaginedby the Tsars. Without a comparable institutional revolution, Russia would have languished.

This is a pretty absurd statement that assumes the conclusion. Under the Tsars multiple massive institutional changes happened multiple time, and often in the 19th century. Literally just a few years before WW1 the Tsars enacted the largest land reform program in world history that would have absolutely exploded land productivity.

Yes of course Russia had to continue to reform, but so did Japan and so did the Soviet Union.

I would argue not killing millions of your most productive farmers, put 100s of your intellectuals into labor camps, enacting genocide on multiple nations, declaring global war on the rest of the world would be a benefit.

The paper makes a whole lot of other highly questionable claims.

> I argue that industrial development would have been almost asfast had the five year plans been carried out within the frame work of the NEP–but it none-the-less nudged up the growth rate.

This claim is incredibly questionable. If you actually read the documentation from that time, actually what the people in charge of the Soviet Union knew, was that those things were not independent.

The massive export of grain is what allowed the massive import of foreign machine tools, factory designs and a million other things. The Soviets literally took food away from starving farmers, put it on trains, shipped it to Germany and got amazing high quality machine tools back ON THE SAME TRAIN that were vital for industrialization.

During the NEP they wanted to do the same thing, and they tried, but unfortunately for them the Red Army was parading down Red Square on bicycles and they literally couldn't.

The paper doesn't substantiate these claims on how equal industrialization would have been possible without collectivization.

I could go on, there is so much questionable things in the paper. Honestly I feel slightly discussion by their treatment (or non treatment) of multi-million people starving in the period that they are discussing.

> https://www.jstor.org/stable/2672986?seq=1

I can't event take this paper seriously.
The 128M number seems to be new, but XCodeGhost was widely reported at the time (e.g. in the New York Times, BBC News, Wired, InfoWorld, Mac sites like 9to5Mac, and of course Ars Technica itself.)

More references at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XcodeGhost

Here's what Apple[1] said[2] at the time:

"We've removed the apps from the App Store that we know have been created with this counterfeit software," said Apple spokeswoman Christine Monaghan.

"We are working with the developers to make sure they're using the proper version of Xcode to rebuild their apps," said Christine Monaghan.

[1] https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34311203

[2] https://developer.apple.com/news/?id=09222015a
If the host opens the door with car, and asks you if you'd prefer to switch to the unopened door, then you have a 100% chance of being wrong, as the door with the car isn't one of the choices. But, sure, my second point still stands, that it's effectively asking if you want your door or the sum of the other two doors.

But, to be clear, the question states that Monty opens the door with the goat. If you were to write a monte Carlo to test this empirically, you'd have to have your "Monty" choose the door with the goat.
You would find that most studies are complete garbage. Especially social science ones.
There is no STEM shortage. It's a lie to import h1bs by the millions to replace you.
There is a difference between buying exclusivity in the early stages and buying exclusivity after the game was announced for a different platform.

In my case, phoenix point is the final straw that made me REALLY hate epic.
You pick the car with 1/3 probability and a goat with 2/3. If you picked the car and switch, you lost. If you picked a goat and switch, you win because the only other door left has the car.

The problem is simple to reason through. The hard part is convincing yourself that you need to think through it given what seems "obviously correct".
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Precisely ascribing the origins of a malware attack, with 100% confidence, to one specific nation state is a very hard problem to solve. The time/effort that it would take for one nation to launch an attack on a 2nd party, seeming to come from a third-party, or one of their own adversaries, is not very great.

At least not with the 100% confidence that politicians would want before the US military starts dropping JDAMs on buildings.

I would give fairly even odds that something like this is the work of an organization nation state, and also even odds that it's the work of some underemployed teenagers in a basement.
If you like Hackers, the obvious other two are Sneakers, which is good, and The Net, which is not.
For example,

> The times don't change all that much.

The implication, in my mind, is that there's nothing we can change; it takes away all agency to improve our world.
Nah. I just choose, regardless whether the choice is apparent or real.
I've been waiting for a single-player version of Maplestory to come out my entire life.

The overall art/gameplay style is lovely, there's not really a single-player offlin equivalent to the platformer-JRPG thing that I'm aware of.

I recently went back and tried to play it again almost a decade later with my partner (who had never played it) and it was not quite what I remembered.

Fantastic game back then though, as well as "Conquer Online" around the 2007-2009 era.
thanks! very interesting.
I also wrote a simulation, in PHP, when I first encountered this problem.

<?php
$wins = 0;
for ($i = 0; $i < 1000; $i ++)
{
$car = mt_rand(0, 2);
$choose = mt_rand(0, 2);
if ($choose == $car) $wins ++;
}
echo "stay: " . ($wins / 1000 * 100) . "%<br />";
// switch
$wins = 0;
for ($i = 0; $i < 1000; $i ++)
{
$car = mt_rand(0, 2);
$choose = mt_rand(0, 2);
if ($choose != $car) $wins ++;
}
echo "switch: " . ($wins / 1000 * 100) . "%";
Yes. Since I think the news is the same although this article is a day later, I've merged the comments thither. Thanks!
Wellll sort of. The "Da Vinci" virus claimed it was going to capsize oil tankers in order to cause an ecological disaster. Not just shut down a pipeline.
I'm from 89 and have the same experience: not being at my computer meant being offline.

But also I was for many, many hours on phone with friends (unlimited minutes). So, I'm not sure that changed much
> imagine every time the hosts picks the car the universe resets

Do you believe that we live in a universe that is reseting, every time Mr Monty hall opens a car?

As in literally Mr Monty Hall. From the game show. In real life.

Because the purpose of the question is to mimic the show.
This seems the most interesting aspect of the problem:

"However, the probability of winning by always switching is a logically distinct concept from the probability of winning by switching given that the player has picked door 1 and the host has opened door 3." [1]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Criticism_o...
You'll find that many of the ongoing/recent conflicts listed on these pages involve bombs/rockets/aircraft/tanks, not to mention soldiers on the ground and in some cases occupation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:2020s_conflicts

Remember when Russia invaded and seized part of Ukraine a few years ago? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru...
I have a Ph.D. in slot machines and you blew it big time. In Nevada they are very much controlled, just not by time interval.

Oh, and fwiw, I know several people who always win when they come to Las Vegas. I know because they've told me so. This proves that you don't actually work in the industry.

(I really hate that I have to disclose that I don't really have a Ph.D. is slot machines.)
To take the last high-profile ransomware gang stopped, if we ignore for a moment that the US didn't find them, you think sending US special forces into Ukraine to arrest or kill some unarmed dudes in a basement would have aided US interests more than just having local law enforcement arrest them? Does this policy of deploying troops expand to gangs in NATO member states and other close allies?
Its the bread and butter of sciencedaily. Garbage stories every day of the week.
Only losers take Mensa tests and talk about their IQs. But plenty of PhDs use the Dr title in the right context. It's just the height of jerkdom to insist on people addressing you with it.
>yes, if you stop flying and thereby fall into an unsurvivable place, you will die.

In recent versions, you just suffer severe draining (temporary max HP reduction, removed by gaining XP) for every turn you're on an unwalkable tile while not flying (which are only accessible by flying and then stopping flying while above the tile). Which I think is a good further example of the different philosophies - rather than instakill you for what's almost certain to be an oversight from a new player, the game just punishes you so you don't do it again.
Not completely related, but I also briefly consulted at Monasanto in an entire department that seemed composed of consultants hired to build something from scratch and ignore the normal bureaucracy.

It was fun because we were hired to do things that in house employees had failed to do for whatever reason, so when I built the little dashboard I was hired for, everyone was so amazed.
I just completed the job I was given, but to them I was a superstar.
Consulting can be fun like that.
>>> 1900 was an age of decadence, 1920 was an age of decadence, 1940 was an age of horrors so horrific Europe basically collapsed. 1960s were extremely decadent but it was a bit more broad-based. The 1980s were decadent (I recommend Wolfe's The Bonfire of the Vanities). 2000 was maybe unusually sedate? Probably it was decadent and I didn't notice. 2020 is decadent and I am not surprised.

>>> The times don't change all that much.

That doesn't sound philosophically or factually rigorous, nor particularly true in many ways, nor like something that reflects any razor-like precision.
Some past threads:

Behind the Scenes on Retrofitting Dungeon Crawl Stone Soup's Random Seeding - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19596504 - April 2019 (2 comments)

Death: From Dungeon Crawl to Meat Boy - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17460667 - July 2018 (54 comments)

Dungeon Crawl: Stone Soup - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13126045 - Dec 2016 (40 comments)

Dungeon Crawl Stone Soup Webtiles (browser based rougelike) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4673564 - Oct 2012 (1 comment)

Dungeon Crawl Stone Soup - WebTiles (requires WebSockets) - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2549531 - May 2011 (1 comment)
Keep in mind the usual type of person that is here on HN. I was able to gleam what you are doing and how you are doing it the moment I started reading the first order note.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16866990
I used to work at a scientific research institute where the entire IT department reported to a single researcher for no apparent reason.
You can order holographic stickers for a few cents each nowadays. I doubt they good the same challenges they did until a few years ago.
Property tax in our county is the same as Montgomery County, the inner ring county. I think one of the factors in play in DC is the inner ring counties are topped out in terms of what a dual GS scale couple can leverage themselves into. That might be driving different dynamics than a city where a large fraction of jobs don’t have this tightly constrained salary scale.

Although, parallel to your observation with your brother: my parents’ house in the traditional “rich” Northern VA neighborhood barely appreciated from 2000 to 2018, but prices for houses in areas that were more affordable to begin with have exploded.
I'm going to disagree with your framing here. Probabilities DO change as more information becomes available. For example, prior to rolling a pair of dice, you have a 1/36 chance of rolling a 12. However as sooner as you see the value of the first die, the probability changes to either 0 (most likely) or 1/6. In your description, if Monte opens a door randomly -- which you don't make clear whether he does or doesn't -- then the presence of the goat DOES change your P(winning a car).
> There is a difference between buying exclusivity in the early stages and buying exclusivity after the game was announced for a different platform.

Again, how is this Epic's problem?
If 33% of food is wasted & 9% of people are hungry, then a logistics fix alone might eliminate hunger.
Looks close to the one armed bandit problem which is fundamental in Reinforcement Learning.
I did consider not posting that factoid. I had been a while since I double checked it. You're right, now that I think about it more. I'm inclined to no longer believe that statement to be true but I wonder if a single digit percentage of alcohol could be enough to stave off more advanced stages of exponential growth of bacteria for a meaningful amount of time like, say, a day.

Nevertheless: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_beer
Reading "Ask Marilyn" in the paper was one of those Sunday rituals that I miss from my childhood. Along with the puzzler from Will Shortz on NPR on the way to church and reading the Sunday funnies.

I kinda miss the newspaper, the way it was back then.
I had this happen recently but it had been previously tied to a phone number and I responded with it. And it appears to be locked permanently. Granted it is a pretty random side account and not that big of a deal, but that was an eye opener. I literally answered every challenge they gave me correctly and yet it is now gone forever.
Please don't escalate like this, even when another commenter reacted badly or you feel they did. It may not feel like you owe them better, but you owe this community better if you're participating in it. The ecosystem is fragile here.

Fortunately your comment history is otherwise pretty good, so this should be easy to fix.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Just to be clear, the death clock is hidden and is intended to be impossible to trigger if you're not actively cheesing with one of the very few exploits that depend on waiting for a very long time. IIRC to tune the clock, they took the longest non-exploit game on record, and doubled the time that took.
Please don't respond with swipes or provocations, even when another commenter is wrong or you feel they are. It's easy to see how that last bit would end up taking the thread to a worse state, and your comment would be just fine without it.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
There's also a wide range of costs for kids extracurriculars.

Programming could be nearly free (get a $200 computer of craigslist, add internet and electricity), soccer is relatively inexpensive.

IMO one of the major costs is because parents use their kids as conspicuous consumption symbols. "My kid does BJJ, equestrian, and snowboarding cause they're #blessed..." (cringe).

Personally, I'll be leveling with my kids, if they want something beyond the basics it's going to be up to them to find a way to pay for it. Soccer/basketball/swim lessons etc is in, super expensive clubs are out, and mom & dad's love for them is not a function of money spent.
I do and my assembler is clang.

.intel_syntax
Emphasis mine:

> “You may not be aware, then, that the description of that game includes a list of fetishes, which include many words that *are not appropriate for us to speak in federal courts*,”

> “So Epic Games, your store, is on the hook for whatever process itch.io put in place to review these games that are *so offensive we cannot speak about them here*, correct?”

I'm floored that this line of reasoning is allowed in court, it all hinges on the assumed puritanism of the court and the implied ethics of that.

It gives no information whatsoever about the actual content either, it allows the judge and everyone to fill in what they find "offensive" while we know Apples bar for this is low and extremely wonky.

Just for example, Facebook removes images of breastfeeding. You cannot discuss that just mentioning "offensive images" - the content matters for the judgement.
It is likely that people who eat more mushrooms also eat more vegetables. This correlates to an overall healthier lifestyle.
After reading "This Is How They Tell Me the World Ends" [1], I feel the world working normally is rather a sheer luck. (Probably I'm very late to realize this, but anyway )

To me the only reasonable survival strategy is redundancy, but I have no idea how we can reach there.

[1] https://www.amazon.com/This-They-Tell-World-Ends/dp/16355760...
The built-in tutorial is, I think, the best way to learn the game. After that, playing with hints mode on (as the tutorial suggests).
I'm a classically trained pianist, and this is good advice.

I'd also suggest doing exercises periodically to improve the independence and coordination of your fingers - chord balancing (progressing from 3 notes to 5) and Hanon were particularly helpful for me. (You can google chord balancing and Hanon if you're unfamiliar.)
In your reverse problem, I don't see how the new door can ever be relevant, as you know the car is behind 1 or 2, so you're only ever interested in picking between those 2.

In the original problem, its presence _is_ relevant, as the car could be behind doors 1, 2, or 3. Say you pick door 1 - there's a 1/3 chance you are right.

The host is then left with doors 2 and 3. We know there is a 2/3 chance the car is behind _one_ of these doors. When the presenter reveals a goat (say in door 2), he is reveling information about this set of doors - there is still a 2/3 chance that the car is behind one of the doors in this set, but there's only one door left we don't know anything about (3). There is therefore a 2/3 chance that it is behind _this_ door.
This is the exact definition of a bullshit statement. Never pretend to speak for a loosely defined group of people that you DEFINITELY don't represent.
It's probably a trademark violation, and maybe copyrights and patents do depending on the specific facts, but I wouldn't call those fraud.
I really like the analogy of trying to learn to run by speed walking faster and faster. It can’t be done, you have to specifically practice your ‘running’ form. Sometimes I do this way before I’m ready and make tons of mistakes like you mentioned, but with the focus of understanding the ‘running’ form as opposed to the speed walking form. This can literally be hilarious, I laugh so much at how ridiculous it can sound but it is really helpful!

What do you think about accidentally learning too rote like? For example I never really understood how to play a lot of classical until I was able to feel what it feels like to ‘speak’ music as a jazz pianist. Now I really try to understand what I am saying when I play as if it were my own notes. I can still get in the habit of relying on reading & memorizing without really getting to the heart of the notes and it usually causes me to hit a plateau.

For example I’ve been working on James P Johnson’s ‘Carolina Shout’ off of a transcription and hit this plateau without even knowing it. I realized it when I heard Ethan Iverson perform it and realized he was owning the song so much more than the rote attempt I was making. What do you think about moving past the rote learning and owning a piece?

https://youtu.be/eM09yob0RFM
"Sexual abstinence brought in the familiar zoo of weird behaviors, ranging from coitus interruptus to having sex with animals."

Umm... abstinence causes people to have sex with animals?

Count me as more than a little skeptical.

This essay is a "just so" story, full of completely unsubstantiated assertions.
The 1990 Parade Magazine description is almost identical (and actually more explicit, since "say #3" is a removable parenthetical):
"the host, who knows what’s behind the doors, opens another door, say #3, which has a goat"
-- https://web.archive.org/web/20130121183432/http://marilynvos...

The host's knowledge is explicitly mentioned, and the only purpose this could have is that so he can use it to avoid giving the game away.
Apple disagrees with the last statement and puts an ethical judgment on it as well.
I still remember the color order for the wires on a DS1 crossover cable and even I know that "TUI" means "text UI".
I completely agree that the infrastructure needs to be secured, and that it requires a lot of funding. I'm saying the military is the wrong organization for domestic operations.

What happens when the military believes an attack is coming from a private citizen? Can they spy on or take action against that person? Can that alleged attacker's computer be seized? On what evidence? What if the military determines that effective security means surveilling a wide area before an attack, or collecting all citizen data to have a source to search for clues in case of an attack? What if they determine, which some already agree, that the best defense is a good offense?

I'm of a mind that the security should be a regulation, and the infrastructure operators have to meet it. The NIST can develop standards and techniques, but the safety of infrastructure is part of the cost of doing business. Your plant can't be a menace to the community due to risk of explosion, pollution, etc. - it seems no different. The operators have gotten away with buying cheap, crappy IT for years. It's time to invest seriously in rigorous, quality engineering.