skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> Aren't we forced to require replication for a measure of truth in empirical studies?

Almost no scientific discipline requires it, sadly. There's usually no career prospects if you do replication studies.
This gets into interesting stuff!

So the situation described in that paper is that you are given the true odds of the coin, 60% heads. In this case it's just as I described - knowing previous results doesn't tell you anything useful.

> Whereas I'm only flipping 10 times, so I won't necesssarily get 60% heads.

This is true. In fact there is only about 25% chance of getting exactly 6 of the 10 to be heads (but nearly 70% chance of >= 6 heads). You can work this out with something called the binomial distribution. Chance of getting 10 heads in a row is .6%

A more interesting aspect is when you don't know the odds (or don't trust what you've been told). In this case it's definitely important what the history is. So given your 10 flips, we can ask questions like "how likely is it that this coin is fair (50/50) given the 10 flips I just saw".

It turns out the best estimation of the true probability is, pretty intuitively, (h+t)/h; this will jump aroudn for small N . In practice you are more often looking at something like P(0.55 < p < 0.65 | samples) , i.e. the probability that the true value lies between 0.55 and 0.65 heads, given the 10 flips I've seen).

Obviously in these cases, the more samples you have seen the tighter the estimate get. You can also ask questions like how many flips do I need to see to be confident at a certain the coin is really 0.6 heads.
ask prices never went down. rental took a dump. sale prices just increased because of the supply shock, way too many buyers and nobody was selling.
Suppose we have 100 sequential bets with distribution U(-1,1.1) on each. How would we apply Kelly here?
Maybe to preserve the illusion that Mac OS is inherently part of the computers Apple sells as opposed to a separate product that's linked to them artificially?
Http3, IMAP, Caldav and MAPI?

Cordinating a client across two ports sounds trivial compared to for example properly implementing client and server versions of IMAP search commands when no client or server follows the specification.
Pre-registration is very common in medicine. I don't see it change anything, because there are no real consequences for not doing what you registered for.
Couple more sweet mixes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eB4oFu4BtQ8 (Roots. The brass mix gives me goosebumps lol)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jFycqnOpifQ (Nickel Creek. If there really is only one mic someone has sold their soul. The sound stage is perfect.)
Eh China already made an example of Ali anyway (2.8B fine).
Shopify's market cap is $146 billion, so any acquisition would certainly be them buying.
You can import npm packages using esm and skypack.

import React from "https://esm.sh/react@17.0.2" should work.

For skypack, add ?dts flag at the end to get typescript typing support automatically.

Self hosting is an option too with above.

if you want more npm modules to work with deno, you can contribute to https://deno.land/std/node
> Believe it or not, the balance of nature depends on them. What would dragon flies eat? What would endangered birds that eat dragonflies eat?

Aedes aegypti are an invasive species in most of the world. It's a pure win to eradicate them, they have zero benefits to the ecosystem.
Only 10 years short? This has been happening for far longer than just the last economic downturn / recession(?). Even then there both weren't the right type of houses being built nor enough housing.
Realtors would rather have a sale in two days at 70% of market value than a sale at 110% in ninety days.

With the quick sale they have vastly reduced expenses. No brochures, web-site pictures, open houses, etc. Fewer showings also save time.

An extra $10,000 in the purchase price puts about $200 in the agent's pocket. And $9300 in the seller's.
I mean, so do wars and pandemics, and yet we are not quite thinking of those as good things.
In France, the tiny company I was in lost a lot of gov contracts to our absolute surprise since we felt we actually had a better solution for the price.

What we did to start winning was to make friends with the people judging us, offering free services making them personally look good until we started having such relations with them they d ask us out to frame the contracts and give them to us whatever our competitors would come up with.

It's impossible to take decisions based on surprise proposals in a public tender and it felt it was an open secret that tenders' winners MUST be decided before publication.
If you had a camera pointing at a thousand coins that flipped once every second since the beginning of the universe, you still would probably not see 60 heads in a row.
Even worse, the experimenters didn't actually provide real coins. They just sent around links to a website that they said was simulating a biased coin. Participants presumably had no actual way to know whether the flips were actually 60% biased towards heads, whether the results were truly independent from one flip to the next, or even whether their bet might impact the outcome.
sometimes the crash would happen during the save. then the file was corrupted
Most of those don't save anything and you often have to make poor comproises as well. Conventional houses already come with most parts cut to size. I've never seen someone bring a sawmill to a construction site to make 2x4s for example.

There is some interesting work being done in ICF, which is better than 3d concrete. Prefab houses are limited to what goes on a truck (meaning weird walls), and often done to mobile home quality.
Decentralisation, basically.
my daughter's (kindergarten) assignments are embedded youtube videos. There's also "suggested videos" after they play that can send her down a rabbit hole if we aren't watching (we have two toddlers as well so attention is divided).
The difference is we don't demand that automobile manufacturers only make "affordable" cars and people with cars can't stop new cars from being made
Not just podcasts. Many of my favorite Youtube channels have websites built with it and then usually have an in-video advertisement with a promo code.
"There are No Good Arguments for Intellectual Property"

Oh yes there are! As Cory Doctorow has suggested, the average person couldn't care less about intellectual property/copyright, and this has always been so. Thus, you're never going to see people out demonstrating on the street over it.

The argument for intellectual property is that with most of the population AWOL over the matter, the few who do care are free to lobby politicians to strengthen IP and then proceed to rip us off with even further impunity. And I'm sure they consider our collective ambivalence a damn good argument for keeping it.
so just as bad - hours of work you cannot get to
Build or buy? It has no answer. There are too many different factors. Are you hiring a general contractor, subbing out or truly building yourself? Does your city/county process permits and variances in a timely manner? Do they charge you tons of money for those services? Do they make you carry out extensive environmental surveys and impact reports? Are you paying in cash or borrowing? Do you want every detail to be perfect? Do you want high performance thermal envelopes and low air leakage? Do you want to have special certifications like passive house? How long are you willing to dedicate to the process of completing the project?

There is no correct way to build. There are many different methods, standards and philosophies and none of it is backed up with very much evidence because of the culture of the building trade and how old it is. Your own personal judgement and research will determine how everything is done down to the type and placement of fasteners. The only way for you to understand if it’s worth it is for you to learn everything about it, put it in the context of your situation and have your own opinion.

What I will say is that almost every house in the United States is built poorly. The common standard practices are very backwards and prone to failure. I would never buy an expensive house unless most of the value was in the land.
Maybe Bitcoin isn’t the solution then?
That would be the 260m marketing & sales budget I expect.
Here's a screenshot: https://julialang.org/assets/blog/nvvp.png. Or a recent PR when you can see NVTX ranges from Julia: https://github.com/JuliaGPU/CUDA.jl/pull/760
We introduced invasive species like tumbleweeds (unknowlingly) that have messed with mother nature.

We have also introduced some species that haven't really created problems.

We have also created new habitats (cities) where some species are quite problematic. If we could get rid of cockroaches and bed-bugs, life would certainly become better.
I mean on everyone else's part.
Yeah I completely agree. But perhaps we should not start from scratch again, maybe another JVM implementation with a focus on power consumption? Perhaps even a fork of OpenJDK is enough.
Soap: Making Everyday Chemistry Public [pdf]
I know virtually nothing about real estate and this question might seem dumb. I hear people are paying in the excess of $100K over asking prices on homes in some areas. Are these exuberantly high prices offsetting low interest rates for buyers?
>>> built an options pricing engine on top of PyTorch

I'd love to hear more about this! Do you have any posts or write-ups on this?
"Demand" is a bit misleading right now. A friend of mine put her place up for sale in Houston and 80% of the offers she got were investors. I suspect that it's not so much about actual housing demand, but the same huge appetite for investment that is driving the stock market boom.
If you’re convicted of murder because the government dismissed black jurors due to their racial prejudices in order to assure the jury was all white and then the conviction is overturned on appeal and the prosecutor declined to reprosecute, are you guilty of murder? No. You aren’t.

More closely: if you take a plea bargain and plead guilty to breaking and entering instead of murder, are you guilty of murder? What if you only agreed to the plea bargain because you didn’t want to spend the millions of dollars to litigate again? This latter hypothetical is the reality of corporate prosecution in America: companies will settle just to avoid tainting their reputation and spending the cash to win on the merits. That doesn’t mean that they’re guilty.
What? It's not that there's just one Zuck, it's that there are fewer Zucks than parents. The strategy would be the same if there were 5 Facebooks competing for market share.
In practice, there's a massive bikeshedding problem in scientific review. It is very frustrating to see proposals or preprints criticized for missing a dot in paragraph 37 when the bigger problem is that the experiment is overall worthless because it can never change a decision.... This is bad enough when it's an honest mistake, but then there are all the dishonest or plainly incompetent people to worry about.

So, no, in fact I think we are suffering from an abundance of nitpickers. Science desperately needs more reviewers who can see the bigger pictures.
Yes the Cuckoo's Egg by Clifford Stoll recounts this story well.

However since then the CCC has been very honourable and I have nothing but respect for them.
Nice! I set a reminder to check back in a month.
Register the HomePod as a Spotify Connect device using SpoCon and forked-daapd
This technology will surely benefit Florida. GMO Mosquitoes will be able to balance the ecosystem while decreasing human cases.

Even though scientists state that this will be safe for our health and environment, they should still consider the community's voice because many people are doubtful about GMOs ' impact on our settings.
The Cartesian product of the set of all use cases of file storage excluding those for which the iPhone does include an app; and the set of all methods that distribute the content of an app with verifiable authenticity and authorship excluding all methods which are "like an app store"
Sure, I've gone through losing more than 80% of my wealth multiple times by being 100% in BTC, so I got used to that already. At the same time it stresses my friends out a lot. I'm expecting to lose more than 50% of my wealth, but at this point it doesn't really change my life style.
Big foreign investment firms that buy office buildings, hotels and shopping centers around the world have a new favorite real-estate play: single-family homes in American suburbs.

These institutions are partnering with U.S. housing companies to buy or build rental homes by the thousands. In suburban neighborhoods near cities such as Atlanta, Las Vegas and Phoenix, blocks of families are sending monthly rent checks to ventures backed by Canadian pension funds, European insurers, and Asian or Middle Eastern government-run funds.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/that-suburban-home-buyer-could-...
The problem is that the people that make those places desirable to live in can no longer live in them.
Thanks! Now I believe! :)
I was actually asking an honest question. I do not think I'm giving up on my responsibilities. It's just that does serving as a proxy to YouTube really help better than some reasonable weekly limit?
> Also car companies are supposedly the culprit, even though their volume is only in the low tens of millions per year, and the dustup is apparently over only six months of capacity? What? I get that the auto industry is a nice reliable long-term source of revenue for chip companies, but fabs should barely be sneezing at that sort of volume.

I agree. I think the blame on automakers has been blown out of proportion. It doesn't make any sense that automakers cancelled orders, then reinstated those orders again with some extra demand, and now the entire chip market is stalled.

It's most likely due to the fact that consumer demand is up everywhere. The pandemic didn't hit the economy nearly as hard as expected, and we piled a lot of stimulus on top of that. Savings rate went up a bit, but much discretionary spending was diverted away from things like dining out and toward buying consumer goods.

> STMicroelectronics can't make any of their 40-130 nm microcontrollers for the next year

They're almost certainly making huge volumes of microcontrollers, but they're all spoken for with orders from the highest bidders.

We won't have inventory sitting on shelves again until fab capacity isn't being 100% occupied by existing orders. Need some surplus before we can get parts at DigiKey.
I can't tell if you're joking or not. Apple refuses to implement Web APIs that make PWAs usable, the same Web APIs that Google, Chrome, Firefox, etc have all implemented 8+ years ago.
Linux Kernel Runtime Guard 0.9.0 Is Released
No, because a house is a hedge on inflation. Once the house is paid for it is rent free, so your retirement investments can be smaller for the same standard of living.
I'd be curious what the breakdown of buyers is between categories of people intending to use it as a primary residence, secondary residence, or corporations (or people), buying rentals.

Post 2008 there were reit corps formed to buy up rental properties, and there was a visible shift from personal ownership towards own to rent.
Progress in the Low-Cost Electrochemical Synthesis of Ammonia
> Why would you assume I said that.

I didn’t.

> Government has the job of arbitrating between the needs of all people. Companies should be meeting the needs and wants of consumers without causing harm. When Companies, and the people that own and operate them, cause harm, it is the obligation of government to remedy these problems through action, forceful if need be, against the offenders. Governmental failure to remedy problems results in vigilantism without fail.

What has this ominous generalization got to do with the question?
The problem with anything that isn't 1/n is the large estimator variance of the mean of asset returns. There's such little signal there that Markowitz et al invariably fit to mostly noise, which reduces diversification, increases transaction costs, among other problems.

A similar phenomenon occurs in ensemble methods in statistics. It's often better to equal weight many estimates than try to fit weights to them, since that fitting process introduces lots of variance.
You're right that PHP has historically had its fair share of "development by copy-and-paste from StackOverflow" developers. However, I've noticed that in recent years a lot of those people moved to the JavaScript ecosystem. It's the latest shiny and the learning curve and time-to-deploy curve is low like in PHP (though, many in the JS community are trying their best to complicate that part for reasons I can't fathom)

Does that leave a PHP community comprised of only people who adhere to solid CS/SE principles? No, but that doesn't diminish the fact that PHP still has a lot going for it. It's easy to get started. You can adhere to solid CS/SE principles with little effort if you have the discipline to do so. It's trivially easy to deploy a PHP application. The documentation is still fantastic.
Fun fact, Voyager 1 - at 17km/s, isn't always moving away from Earth.

Earth does 30km/s around the Sun, so at some points in it's orbit, Earth is catching up to Voyager 1.
Thanks for that, here's one of my favorites.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7My5IpEzVM&ab_channel=NPRMu...
Go has a complete accounting of what all the bytes are. You can read them for yourself in the compiler, as it is open source, and trace through where every byte comes from, if you like. It isn't exactly in a broken down table precisely to the specs of what knz42 wants, but the info is all there. There's nothing hidden here.

Oh, you don't want to do that? That's not a surprise. Neither do I. Definitely not on my agenda today.

But I'm not making wild accusations. If you're going to, you probably shouldn't be surprised when we're not exactly impressed.

The compiler is all open, and as such things go, fairly easy to read. "As such things go" is definitely doing some heavy lifting there, but, still, for a compiler of a major language, it's a relatively easy read.

The vague intimation that there's something hidden and sneaky going on is hard to give much credence to.
> If you have 30 offers within 2 days, but then reject them all waiting for another buyer, the buyer you wait for has to outbid the 30 previous buyers to make it worthwhile.

my recollection from buying a house (even in the buyer's market of 2008? or 2009? eh), was that the seller had 7? days to accept/reject. so sellers now should be able to just accumulate a pile of offers, i'd think, before having to reject any?

> They'd rather have 2 sales a week at 98% of max price than 1 sale a week at 100% of max price.

well, that certainly makes sense. that extra 2% times their 7% probably isn't worth any risk, let alone screwing around further on your house when they could be moved on to the next one.

in the end i expect a bunch of factors are contributing, and i'm expecting the explanation to be more satisfying than whatever reality is going to provide.
Cyberpunk 2077 Dev Posts a Profit For 2020
This story is about Aedes aegypti - it certainly does spread dengue fever, chikungunya, Zika fever, Mayaro and yellow fever.

I’m not super comfortable with the unknown risks related to GM insects but having seen the impact of dengue first hand I hope this proves successful at limiting the insect population in urban areas.
>justify why this needs to exist
wtf justify why you need to exist. if people want something, others will provide it. if kids don't like it then they wont have it
Art is not a commodity; there is no futures trading on art.
There were VERY early on the podcast revolution. I would say they helped make the landscape we see in podcasts today possible.
Perhaps you should try a build that ignores crafting, then. In a lot of games it is a potentially broken mechanic.

As for immersion, there are games where behavior changes when you do things like slaughter an in-game faction's leadership. But it's going to be fairly rare, because it's expensive. You might want to check out Kenshi, as that game will appropriately react when you slaughter an entire town -- that factions enemies might move in to occupy it, and game conditions might change. But Kenshi was a one-man project that took something like a decade to complete, and I have even heard that those kinds of meta-interactions are scripted so you can't even take that sort of thing very far.

Also, what you described about Caesar's Legion sounds very plausible in a post-apocalyptic world without reliable long distance communication. In historic times wars sometimes lived on beyond their end as distant, far-flung generals had not yet received orders of a ceasefire. If there is one thing I hate, it is when an entire faction turns against you because you killed one of their dudes in an isolated fashion and yet, somehow, magically, now the whole faction knows? How does that even work plausibly?

Finally, I think that expecting video games to accurately model real life is a fool's errand. We will likely never reach this level of interaction, not without a massive budget and all the other terrible things that happen when you try to reach as large an audience as possible. If you frame your immersion to stick to the limits of the gameworld and the context that is was built under, you will experience far less disappointment.
At least for tests like the SAT, this is not correct. SES and coaching don't affect SAT scores much. A major reason why elites hate it so much and instead want "wholistic evaluations". Instead the ceiling of the test should be raised.
You've gotta be kidding. 99% of companies in the U.S. are small businesses, and over half of those have annual revenue under $500K (that's revenue, not profit). In many cases, small businesses offer immigrants a pathway to the middle class, despite lack of credentials, connections, or English skills. Are you saying they shouldn't have the right to sell their business? You talk about "authoritarian control," but what could be more authoritarian than denying people basic property rights?

And even if you limit discussion to only tech startup companies, taking away the option of selling the company in the future completely changes the risk calculation. You'd end up with fewer companies getting started, which would entrench the big players even more.
> And when the demand drops will the prices crash?

Unlikely. More likely it will just flatten out for a while.
I don't think internal recruiters (what I believe the GP was referring to) get paid a commission.
Only true if the house was over valued. Otherwise the house should more or less pace inflation, but you get to live there.
They do, they vote for politicians to make laws to remove that threat to their childs well being permanently. Why is it fair to privatize the infinite work-load of thwarting attackers, but unfair to centralize the work-load of defence?
Smil’s book about Making the 20th Century has some good context for this type of discussion. Highly recommended if interested in how technical leaps happen.
And yet somehow isn’t as plagued by botnets and banking Trojans etc.
This is a fair and valid point. On reflection, what I am looking for is not something that would be in the kernel. It's more something that is an added layer on Rust, quite possibly with compiler support, to provide for OTP style services and supervisors.
Note: I am not the original author, just the submitter. He shared his work on /r/webdev (https://www.reddit.com/r/webdev/comments/mrylut/made_my_port...) and I just happened to find it very impressive. I messaged him to say I posted it here. There is also https://www.reddit.com/r/linux/comments/mrzayy/ubuntu_clone_... with a few more comments.