>If "might makes right" was the only viable dynamic, the human species wouldn't exist.

It's not the only viable dynamic but it's the first and most important one. If your tribe, or nation cannot defend its borders it doesn't go on existing. That was a fact for all of human civilization. We can't even count the number of peoples that were exterminated by rivals over the course human civilization and lost to history.

Within the borders of an empire, with a strong central authority who took the option of force away, "might makes right" takes a backseat to politics, which determines the status of your tribe or nation. Our present world order mimics this state. You can exist as a nation-state but you have to play by the rules. This starts breaking down as the power of some rival nation-state grows. China has a lot of ability to buck American order, and as it ascends to a global super-power it will have more. But don't think for a minute that nation-states that align with China will be free to do whatever they want. They will have to follow China's rules. If not, they will cease to exist or become a pariah state.

>The emergence of the Westphalian doctrine was a novel civilizational development; novel in how deeply and quickly it spread.

It spread because a super-power allowed it and supported it. The present global order was created after the second world war led to the collapse of European empires and ascendance of USA and Soviet Union. It was initially defined by those two super-powers, one market-based and democratic, the other communist and authoritarian. It is not a coincidence that most nations adopted one of those two systems. It is also not a coincidence that when the communist super-power collapsed, democracy (the favoured system of the other super-power) became a default system of governance. If the 21st century sees the ascendance of China as a sole super-power, their system will become the default system of governance.

I have no idea how you can think that abstract ideas can simply enforce their will.

>It's sort of like the concepts of monotheism or "human rights"--decentralized, self-perpetuating, viral organizing principles which can't easily be put back in the box once they achieve critical mass.

Put another way, if you can convince the dominant empire to adopt your ideas, your ideas will spread. When only a small regional power was monotheistic, it was a nothing burger. When it was adopted, first by the Roman empire, and then by a growing Arab empire, only then did monotheism became a dominant strain of religion. Ideas have power, but only insofar that a dominant force monopoly accepts them. You can actually see this in history with local warlords, nation-states, and tribes converting to monotheism to align themselves politically with the relevant empire (Christian or Muslim).

>It's why North Korea is still a sh*t hole, while China increasingly relies on nationalism and other social mechanisms to manage its society.

You're conflating concepts. There are any number of ways that you could manage a nation, some better than others. That has nothing to do with anything. What North Korea, China, USA and all other nations have in common is that they have a monopoly on force that enforces order. Why do you think police carries guns? Why do you think Police exists in the first place? There certainly is a 'carrot' component and people largely willingly buy into the system, but the existence of police should strongly suggest that this is only the case because violence has been taken away as an option. Put another way, you as a citizen interacting with another citizen, cannot use violence as an option even if you wanted to (unless it's explicitly allowed by the force monopoly). Nation-states that cannot enforce order and do not have a monopoly on force are labeled as 'failed states'. Those are the worst places to live on earth.

This is a good analogue to nation-states interacting with each other. The option of force has been largely been taken away as an option, especially for nations within the sphere of influence of a super-power or allied with a super-power.

It's why Iran funds terrorist organizations and proxy militias in Syria, Yemen and region, but doesn't actually invade its neighbours or openly commit its armies. Maybe it doesn't want to, but that's immaterial ... because regardless of whether it wants to or not, it isn't allowed to. When Iraq invaded Iran in the 1980s it gambled that America will stand back because of Iran's antagonism towards America. They got that right and America not-so-subtly even supported the Iraqi military campaign. On the other side, when Iraq gambled and invaded Kuwait, and American ally, in the 1990s - they lost that bet.

By the way, North Korea only exists because China pushed back UN forces during the Korea War. North Korea continues to exist only because China protects it.

>Force or even the threat of force doesn't scale very well.

It scales very well. It's ever present in every interaction we have. Even seemingly benign and unassuming laws, like fines for littering, have the threat of force and death behind them and it's easy to see how. If you litter, you will have an interaction with armed police and courts, and depending on how that interaction goes, you may be killed or deprived of your freedom.

>Mechanisms like plausible deniability (where plausible implies something that can be tolerably overlooked) are like pressure relief valves for contradictions that threaten the normative order.

Sure. Humans are good at managing cognitive dissonance. Did you know, for example, that Roman ideals were against starting of wars? That was a very important concept to the way how Romans saw themselves. In practice, this meant that if Rome wanted to go on a particular war campaign they would manipulate the situation in such a way that it would 'look' like their hand was forced.