Hi there!

I appreciate you being nice. I guess all Tesla posts are incredibly controversial so we just assume that posters fit into one of several predefined camps. No worries, I understand!

> 2010 on a Kia

So according to the Wiki article that would be the 2011 Kia Cadenza which I cannot for the life of me find the MSRP of. Please let me know if you do. What I could find is the MSRP of the 2021 version, which starts out at $37k (notably still more expensive than a Model 3). In addition, lane departure warning is different from lane keep (I'm sorry if this is splitting hairs but I think it is a big difference); with a warning you still have to take action but with lane keep the car will drive back to the center of the lane for you. This removes the driver's reaction time from the picture, which of course is one of the primary goals of lower-level self driving. Of course, you could argue that lane keep assist is standard on a lot of new cars today, which is my point; it wasn't standard back then, it is now, likely at least a little of that movement is due to external pressure from Tesla.

> It is hard to assess your argument that Tesla can deploy their semis tomorrow... etc.

I can try to expand on my argument:

While a semi is obviously a much different vehicle type than a sedan, Tesla already has experience deploying to different types of vehicles (S being a hatchback, 3 being a sedan, X being an SUV, Y being a crossover etc). Of course a semi is heavier but the way it drives is still the same, it just has to brake earlier than most other cars (just like an SUV at the same speed has to brake earlier than a sedan due to the weight difference). I don't claim to be an expert on self driving vehicles, but it is my perception that the physics of the car don't matter as much as it matters for the model to be able to detect and respond to stimuli, which can then be translated to physical movements for electric and hydraulic linkages. Therefore, if a Model S can detect an obstacle in front of it today and brake to avoid hitting it 99% of the time, I don't see why that same system can't be applied to a truck that weighs differently and have it still work. Yes, there is now a trailer in the mix, but Tesla owners already use Autopilot with trailers attached (for better or worse - I don't know if that's recommended or not).

Now, we could split hairs over what Urmson meant by "meaningful," but for me, meaningful self driving long haul driving translates into self driving on the highway. This means that a trucker could manually drive from depot to highway, switch on Autopilot, and then monitor the road for the next few hours until their shift is over. This is obviously not as good as being able to "set it and forget it" - such that the driver could go to bed or something like that - but I would argue it is still meaningful and upends the status quo for commercial drivers today.

Could Semi be deployed tomorrow? No, obviously, it doesn't exist outside of a few demo models that may or may not have Autopilot support yet. But my main argument is that it's being held back by the "car" stuff that we already know how to do (we know how to build electric trucks), and not the self driving stuff that is much more up in the air.

Frankly I don't know if Semi will be a good self driving vehicle - we of course have to wait and see - but what I do know now is that it will be the only self driving truck to have all of the features that Autopilot offers when it comes out in the next few years. I don't think traditional truck manufacturers are going to be able to catch up in time, and I chalk that up to Tesla having the capacity to gather experience on the roads when no one else can (see my other post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26839891)

I hope this helped explained my thought process more. For what it's worth, I do have a positive outlook on Tesla, I do think they make the best car for a person like me (young software developer, not really materialistic), and I hope to be able to afford one some day. But, I don't think it has to stay that way. I feel this way about Tesla specifically because I'm just not seeing other automakers invest in the areas I care about: green energy, infotainment and automation. This is probably because I drive a gass guzzler SUV with no center console and no computerized safety features except for ABS and traction control. Other people who value other things will of course like other cars.