skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
This is not about the example. What I'm saying that no betting at all should care about the time average. Betting is about having good estimation of outcomes, and time averages only helps you when the process is ergotic.

That's a very special case. For everything else (that is, non-ergotic processes), your time average is crap, and you must look at the distribution of outcomes directly. Even the ensemble average is not enough. Averages are crap at visualising skewed distributions. For those you want the median, the quartiles, sometimes even the percentiles.

---

To be honest, this "ergotic theory" shows signs of snake oil. The definition of ergodicity itself is dead simple, so it's pretty easy to evaluate. What seems pretty clear is that ergodic processes are the exception. And a pretty uninteresting one at that, since it's a class of processes that people will have good intuitions about.

It would then seem that ergodic theory is more interested in the non ergodic processes (the very point of this blog post is to warn us about them). That is, processes that lack some property —the general case. And surprise, since the time average and ensemble averages are different, and you only care about the ensemble average (well, the ensemble distribution really), the time average won't help you. Be afraid, or lose your assets.

That's why I see snake oil: what works on non-ergodic processes will also work on the ergodic ones. Unless you need to make a split second decision using your intuition (which while inadvisable is safer with ergodic processes), there's no need to make the distinction at all. Just analyse your process without without assuming it will be ergodic, the results will be applicable even if it is.
Refreshingly MVP broken design. Love it (non sarcastic, shows a focus on the value add).

But I can’t create an account on mobile (iPhone Pro Max). :(
Upvote me if you think you would spend the entire flight thinking of a way to pocket $1000.
> Python is notorious for problems that stem from combining operator overloading and implicit conversions. "+" is arithmetic for some types and concatenation for others. `[1,2,3] + [4,5,6]` is `[1,2,3,4,5,6]`, which you might not expect.

It seemed obvious to me as soon as I saw it in Perl that the Perl approach ("+" for adding numbers, "." for concatenating strings) is a much better idea than using "+" for both operations.

I'm not sure why people keep wanting to use + for concatenation.

(My other language pet peeve is using backslash as the escape character for your mini-DSL that gets parsed from strings, when backslash is also the escape character for strings. You want to use separate escape characters for each context; stacking the same one in several contexts is the worst possible approach.

C was aware of the problems: it uses `\` as the escape for strings and `%` as the escape for printf commands. But somehow by the time we were writing regular expression libraries, this simple, obvious technology had been lost.)
I can’t find the documentary name, but this article reminds me of it. Basically, a man had chronic pain and spent a decade or more trying to solve it. It got to a point where he realized that even though he had treatments, he was still in a lot of pain and felt like he was just eking out his life just to be miserable every day. At one point, he mentions his grandmother dying of cancer. She’s taking a regimen of pills to stay alive but she’s miserable. She doesn’t have a quality of life, so he eventually asks her why she keeps taking her pills then because they’re basically artificially keeping her alive.

By the end of the film, he says goodbye to his loved ones and has an assisted suicide to escape the pain he was in. It was a really touching documentary. As a society, we have a big focus on “fighting” cancer or other big illnesses. I guess there is a quiet, difficult dignity in deciding to face your mortality too, but it’s rarely talked about.
When we find atlantis
This 5-minute POPL video seems like a good introduction to the "why" of e-graphs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ap29SzDAzP0

Seems to be useful in term-rewriting applications.
"Indyk" is Polish for turkey.
Ask HN: WTF Is Yat?
Trying to understand what I’m seeing on Twitter re: yat tokens...

What is that? Some kind of crypto URL shortener? Some of those tokens are selling for tens of thousands of dollars...
Good stuff here. I have tried to build something similar before but nothing came out of it.

1. Repeated content.

I don't want to read what I have already read from a different place. I built a simple LSH based filter. I experimented with few ways to sort out text and process it. It worked.

2. Filter controversy.

I tried Bayesian fitler initially and moved to logistics regression using tf-idf. I settled on Bayesian because my dataset became very expansive. I used news-site corpus and manual entries from reddit/HN. I used sentiment analysis using a dictionary but it worked only in very specific cases. I do like some controversial and pessimistic content.

3. Filter clickbaits.

I couldn't filter the clickbait and gave up. There are ton of clickbaits on HN which I loved after I read them but ton of them are terrible and a huge waste of time. No reliable way to distinguish based on an article too. Length is not a good feature, negativity is not a good feature (I like to read strong opinions from say, founder of an open source analytics company criticising a big company for malpractices and how they fix those), sentence complexity is not good feature, and ton more.

4. Relying on user input is bad.

I read ton of nonsense everyday that I could go without knowing. I click on those links and that is a not me saying you should show me more of that. I don't want to do manual work of training something either. It's friction and I don't like it.

anyway, good luck on your site!
I believe GP's criticism is the imbalance in priority which hints at how money has leverage in the courts.
Distributed ML Training with Federated Learning
I carried a $20k diamond ring on a transatlantic flight. At the time I was the definition of paranoid because it wasn’t insured at the time. Looking back it wasn’t that big of a deal
Can you think of any drawbacks of using this for important services like say PayPal? Or are you strictly using this for throw away products and services?
The promise of a miracle fix is understandably alluring. I wonder how many people in such dire situations want to take part in efforts to spare other people their suffering.
A respectful but laced with British humor recounting of the battle is https://youtu.be/4AdcvDiA3lE
It sounds like that contract was in place to prevent someone from deciding to move somewhere out of the Austin area without telling the lender where they moved to.

For moving to a different country that's basically the status quo. At the very least, you need the lienholder's authorization if you want to get the vehicle out of the country, customs will not let you export it if you don't have a clean title or authorization from whatever lienholder.

It's not totally unusual for a contract to stipulate residency. It's fairly common to do that for a lease agreement. The lender is on the hook for the outstanding balance on the loan if they can't get the debtor to pay up. That collateral just up and disappearing substantially changes the risk associated with the loan. I don't see why it should be illegal to write up an agreement along the lines of "I'll loan you the money for this car, but you have to park it in the surrounding area until it's paid off". No one is claiming that the agreement required the debtor to live in that 4 county radius, just that until they owned the vehicle outright that the vehicle had to be kept there.

As for the argument about how it's endangering the woman from the article, is the car hers or not? If it's in her name then this is just idle speculation that the lender would disclose that information to the abusive husband. If it's not in her name then there's nothing stopping the abuser from just contacting the lender and telling them to pound sand the car is gone. It's not like it's hard to get them to put the car up for repossession and have them pick up the car and disclose the location the next time she goes to WalMart. Even without the GPS tracker it's already commonplace for lenders to contract out repossessions to third parties who trawl parking lots and subdivisions with ALPR cameras looking for cars up for repossession.
>UPnP is only an additional risk if you have malware inside your network already

I'm not sure where you get that idea. Once a hole is poked (depending on the perimeter device/software in use), it stays poked and you've expanded your attack surface.

I make sure that there's no dynamically defined external access to my network. Can you guarantee that no software in use on your network is free of vulnerabilities? I'm not talking about malware here, just your run-of-the-mill software bugs.

If you think the answer is no, then why don't you share your network details with us and let's have a go? Then we'll see how much of an extra risk upnp might be.

What's that? You'd prefer not to do so? If there's no risk, then it shouldn't be a problem, right?

My suggestion is (obviously, I hope) an idle one and more intended as food for thought.

>Kids hosting games on random ports (terraria, etc.) benefit from UPnP. I'd rather enable it than manually enter firewall rules for each game or give them admin access to the firewall.

That may be a valid use case for you. However, claiming that it doesn't increase your attack surface/risk profile doesn't magically make it so.

I'm not telling you what you should or shouldn't do, but I do disagree with your rationalizations about why allowing upnp to expose your perimeter doesn't increase your risk profile.
I agree that taxation being theft depends on how you define theft (and how you define taxation) but that's true of any statement that says X is a type of Y.

If the Mafia had a complex set of rules and procedures governing how they stole from you, I don't think you'd shy away from calling their activities theft. I feel the same way about the government. I don't like them. I didn't vote for them. I don't agree that they should take my money and I don't like what they spend it on. That they have laws I had no part in creating, am not aware of, and don't understand, on top of judges and lawyers I don't agree with doesn't alter the fundamental action taking place - people with guns forcing me to give them money by ultimately threats of violence.

Calling taxation theft is not really a legal statement. It's a moral statement intended to make people think about taxation. Observing that the thieves don't consider it theft according to their laws is accurate, and that would be meaningful in some contexts, but that's not the moral statement being made.
Exactly. People who save your details in their Address Book and click the "Sync your Contacts" when an app suggests it, are the loophole in privacy and security.

The only way is to have a separate set of email, phone numbers, for those family and friends who doesn't care about privacy and security, that way it is easy to dispose those information later.

Beyond that … if we truly want to avoid it … the only course of action is to not give them anything at all. Not a single email, not a single phone number, not even our home addresses.
It's not the worst, but doing anything network related is very slow. Apparently it's uses html5 in the browse section under the hood, not even a true native app.
Some sort of voter id is always necessary though. The forms mailed have an id derived from a database full of ids. You gotta be able to ensure 1 (qualified) person, 1 vote.
It’s too late to save the reefs. It isn’t too late the rest of the environment. Maybe the reef dying will be a wake up call for the world. But probably not.
Reading this made me think of Sartre's The Republic of Silence [1]. In this article, Sartre claims, "never were we more free than under the German occupation." He explains that, roughly, in the face of death, each choice becomes more meaningful, more "authentic."

This goes along with the article's discussion of how doctors, in general, choose to receive far less care than the typical patient when faced with terminal illness. This choice grants an opportunity to live authentically, in Sartre's parlance, for their last months as opposed to going out via the indignity of excessive treatment (e.g., life support machines).

[1] https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/09/pa...
> I saw Dirk Hohndel of SuSE on the anti-Stallman list.

Yes, I was a bit shocked by Suse and Red Hat chiming in. I mean, these guys are literally making money from RMS work, he made their jobs possible. I wonder what Bob Young would say.
I think this starts with the title, "Signs of an Immature Software Developer". This immediately puts the reader on the defensive, because nobody wants to be called or considered immature. If a junior developer were to read this and see some of their own mistakes, I think they would be unlikely to be in the right frame of mind to take the feedback onboard and try to address it. The article doesn't appear to be following its own advice, to hone your communication skills. I would suggest having a(nother) read of How to Win Friends and Influence People. A better title might be "5 Growth Areas for Junior Developers", with a corresponding flipping in phrasing of the subheadings (e.g. "Being a Tech Zealot" -> "Being Pragmatic", "Lack of Team Focus" -> "Team Focus").
Yep. I actually use that in my story: armor and weapons turn out to be essentially useless against Angels, so the agency has to start a martial arts program.

There are exceptions, such as Terry Pratchett's meteoric-iron sword (taken to have Captain Carrot's characteristic of "being the least magical sword you could think of"); retrieving it is in itself a subplot. :)

You can find the whole thing (stories and RPG worldbooks) here: https://www.deviantart.com/spiritplumber/art/Left-Beyond-Add...
Firstly because I can observe an immediate improvement after catch up sleep. Im pretty sure the book doesn't say 'you get better but lose 0.1% each time' it says you can't make it up at all. If I had 4 hours sleep tonight I would feel horrible tomorrow, but even a 20min power nap would improve things.
What makes it dangerous? Seems like most people supposedly misinformed by the book content would just pay more attention to their circadian cycle and try to go to bed earlier and avoid screens?
As I see it, a timestamp is "non-negotiable". The file was last modified on April 22, 2001. There's no difference of opinion, the time is what it is.

But the file extension partially reflects a user's intentions. A stylesheet named "style.css" is intended to be used by a browser directly, whereas one named "style.scss" is expected to go through a preprocessor, but the two might have the exact same contents, and I might decide to just change one to the other, and that's okay.

I take your point about permissions, which are expected to be set by the user. Of course, I actually run into problems caused by incorrect permissions all the time. Maybe it would be better to encode those in the file name! (Although I don't know how you'd do it without creating a mess, and potentially security issues.)
One thing I hear from doctor friends is how incentivized they are to try everything, because if they forget something our legal system strays towards malpractice. Also they get incentives from various lobbying groups to try this or that.
Because the ore phosphate is extracted from also contains uranium (and its decay products). Similarly, it contains a bunch of other nasty things, which at the sheer scale this stuff is produced and stored is a problem to handle.
Then hold a stablecoin instead. I believe the GP meant to refer to crypto currency, not BTC in particular.
Sure but he meant to say crypto currency. USDC, DAI, tether, whatever.
Perhaps sometimes. But properly handling errors around process management in python is not simple either, even with libraries like subprocess. My experience is that when python scripts doing a lot of process management fail they fail in far more complex and hard to diagnose ways than shell scripts do (especially bash scripts with `set -e -o pipefail`).

And like, `subprocess.run()` defaults its check argument (that will make it throw an exception on non-zero exit code) to false, which means that to get that same kind of behaviour as `set -e` in python means making sure you always pass check=False to every invocation, afaik.

Sometimes added complexity can introduce classes of errors.
Spatialite is the defacto standard to pair with Postgis. It is is a phenomenally useful piece of software and probably the first thing to reach for if you are doing GIS work.
Quick Google Scholar search shows the following study with the conclusion, "U.S. physicians were more likely to use hospice and ICU‐ or CCU‐level care. Hospitalization rates were similar."

How U.S. Doctors Die: A Cohort Study of Healthcare Use at the End of Life, https://doi.org/10.1111/jgs.14112
With all due respect, the lack of faith in progress this implies to me you have as a doctor is depressing.
The book is best viewed as a lot of well-meaning exaggerations that are, nonetheless, exaggerations.

The author really, really wants people to take sleep seriously, so he stretches the truth as much as possible to make sleep sound gravely important. He's writing to sell books and spread his message, not necessarily to win awards for posting accurate research.

> If the deficit reduces cognitive function, and I can't make it up with more sleep, does it follow that for every short nights sleep I will have a permanent reduction in cognitive function?

Obviously, the short-term cognitive deficits of sleep deprivation are reversed upon sleeping again.

It's likely that some amount of long-term damage occurs when engaging in unhealthy activities like losing sleep, but the amount of damage is only significant when sustained over long periods of time.

Think of like drinking alcohol: Drinking a bottle of wine in a night is not a healthy activity, but doing it a couple times a year will have negligible impacts on your health. However, drinking a bottle of wine every night for many years in a row will start to produce measurable effects on your liver, among other things.

Sleep deprivation is similar. Missing a night of sleep isn't going to shorten your lifespan or doom you to early cognitive decline. However, depriving yourself of sleep for years on end is likely to produce some negative effects over time.
I don't understand why you think changing the number of participants changes the ensemble average. I just ran it with 1,000,000 participants and 1,000 trials and ended up with an ensemble average of $0.07 on the 1,000th trial, trending toward 0. The only difference is the simulation took longer. The curve looks exactly the same. The ensemble average trends upward until about 500 trials, then trends downward and keeps doing so forever.

My code is right up there and you can run it. You can even just run the OP's notebook that he provided but increase the number of trials. Change the "num_flips_per_sim" parameter he provides in cell 6 to anything over 500 and you will always get sum(count_lose_capital) == everyone.
I’ve been doing the same for years. It’s also a good cross platform solution since both Dropbox and keypass are available for Mac, windows and Linux.
I can’t find any Facebook resource that says I can buy data, or any other reputable source that reports Facebook is selling details about people. Can you provide any?
We do. Let me know when it starts working.
> The Dutch hosting company doesn't obey US law. My god! Can you believe these assholes? Running a hosting company that just hosts, and doesn't snoop into what their customers are doing? And how dare they make enforcement agencies actually go through the required legal processes to enforce the law!

That reminds me a lot of the saga of Kim Dotcom
> And hearing Yiddish (if you still can) is usually closer to modern high German attuned ears than say Suisse German.

There’s Yiddish as a first language kids to this day in haradi (ultra-orthodox) communities. I’m told that it’s a slightly different variant then the version my secular grandparents spoke, but it’s still out there.
As usual, an over–generalization. Some places are like that, others are not. I myself live in a place that has both good access to the interstate for visits to neighboring towns, and is extremely walkable. There are two grocery stores within half a mile, more than a dozen restaurants, lots of other types of stores, office buildings, etc. It’s not perfect though; it could do with more apartment buildings in amongst the restaurants in my opinion.

Still, I generally agree that the permitting process in many places is ridiculous, especially in big cities. But many people do want to live in a house with a yard; it’s not like the government is forcing people to do so.
I'd agree with you about it being more reachable. Slightly related, but after I read your initial comment, I actually found this blog [0] by a guy at CMU who is manufacturing his own ICs at home.

I'm definitely not super knowledgeable of the hardware space, but from what little I know, your current plan sounds reasonable and well-scoped! I wish you the best of luck with undertaking this project if you decide to go forward with it.

[0]: http://sam.zeloof.xyz/
> You shouldn't trust anybody other than yourself and your ability to recognise scientific consensus.

This is the anti-vaxxer motto, almost. I think I'll pass.
Splurge for 2.5k studio in midtown and you still have enough spare cash.
Arm’s V9 architecture explains why nVidia needs to buy it
This is also linked in the official website (https://www.sleepdiplomat.com/author) along with the blog post where he addresses the criticisms.
I can sympathize with the argument I guess, but isn't that exactly what IP Volume is also saying?
On board a flight sounds like the worst possible place to mug someone, IMHO.
The metric to beat isn't "is self driving dangerous, yes or no?"

The metric to beat is "is self driving on average substantially safer than human driving?". Once you beat that metric, it would be insane not to allow self driving. This won't take 100 years.
You say it’s not about the example, then go on to talk about the example...as I said, this article is only about betting insofar as it’s a toy example to illustrate ergodics. In the real world you wouldn’t analyze a bet this particular way, but that’s nitpicking and missing the point.

> To be honest, this "ergotic theory" shows signs of snake oil.

lol. Alright, I’m checking out of the discussion when a major subfield of mathematics is described as snake oil.
It had been quite a while since a major release, but then SpatiaLite 5.0 came out a couple of months ago with some very significant new features - the K-Nearest-Neighbor stuff is particularly interesting. https://www.gaia-gis.it/fossil/libspatialite/wiki?name=5.0.0...

I've built a few fun demos using SpatiaLite and Datasette. Here's an API that tells you the timezone for a latitude longitude point:

https://timezones-api.datasette.io/timezones/by_point?longit... - implementation here: https://github.com/simonw/timezones-api

And here's the same thing for which US county a point is within: https://us-counties.datasette.io/counties/county_for_latitud... - implementation here: https://github.com/simonw/us-counties-datasette

I've also built an experimental Datasette plugin that lets you draw a shape on a Leaflet map to generate a GeoJSON polygon, then uses SpatiaLite to show you geometries that are contained by that drawn polygon. I wrote about that here: https://simonwillison.net/2021/Jan/24/drawing-shapes-spatial...
I have the opposite problem, where I actually want one of my devices to be publicly accesible but my ISP only provides NAT.

And they even disable UPnP from some of their routers for "security reasons".