Except science _can_ set error bounds. No, global warming can never be "true" from the perspective of 100% accurate with no room for error. Science is able to set error bounds though. The latest particle physics results come with "this theory is correct to within 99.99% of the theoretical model". That means that even if the theory is wrong, it can account for 99.99% of all observations you make. That is the power. Obviously climate change models aren't like particle physics so we don't expect such accurate error bounds (too many sources for error). However, the question you must ask is "are the error bars sufficient for the decision I have to make?".

My conclusion thus is that unlike dietary science or pop psychology, the evidence here is very likely real, despite any doubts that may persist. I could of course be wrong. That's a fundamental truth one has to admit to oneself & other peers who understand how science works. That's not a political truth that would make sense to admit because saying "I can never know but I'm pretty sure" has been weaponized into "you don't know anything & you're wrong". Same reason when speaking among science-literate friends I say "global warming" but am careful to say "climate change" to everyone else because the warming aspect got corrupted into "you said it's global warming but winter was especially cold this year".

Maybe there has been a massive social pressure within the scientific community into confirmation bias. Certainly the community does self-police & ridicule anyone who doesn't ascribe to it. Why do I think the theory is reliable & it's not a massive conspiracy (intentional or otherwise)? I trust that there's lots of very bright people who have studied the math, from within & without the field & validated the models don't have any fundamental issues of any kind (conceptual, numerical issues, computer sims are solid, etc). I trust that people outside of the field who have related degrees have validated huge swaths of it. I trust that technological advances have provided us with exponentially better sensors & monitoring and that has fed back into exponentially better simulations to validate models. And with all of that development, over the course of 20 years, the results haven't changed, no new hypothesis have borne out. The scientific community is both small & large. It's large in that there will always be some amount of bad behavior somewhere, bad or unethical science, wrong results, mistaken theories that take hold for a time, etc. It's small though in the sense that when there's a very real problem, it can be brought to light & it's really hard to suppress that knowledge. That's why the chorus about global warming has been increasing. Oil companies knew about this as a problem & suppressed their own voices to the debate because it would hurt their bottom lines. In fact, they often fund the opposition. This isn't a conspiracy theory. There are court documents showing this. A well-informed person can use all of this knowledge to make a guess about who to listen to. A less-informed person will let themselves be swayed by the opinion they want to hear & or as a "fuck you" to the scientific community for ruining their career choice.