[Much of this thinking is based on watching my 14-year old son embrace a new technology and listening carefully to his words and how he thinks about it, and comparing that to historical technology adoption waves. There are really large and important moral / social / utopia vs dystopia conversations around this next tech leap that I’m skipping for brevity - just focusing on tech & business in this post.]

Prediction 2021: VR adoption leaps forwards but isn’t mainstream.

Prediction 2026: You will work in VR. All day.

Prediction 2031: You won't have a smartphone.

You will wear a pair of glasses that will pop up a screen when you want one, and give you other AR (augmented reality) features.

Obviously these changes will take time to trickle-down by socio-economic class and country development stage, just as smartphones didn’t reach everyone instantly. Just for specificity (predictions are more fun if you can be clearly right or clearly wrong!) let’s say, “More than half of people who type on keyboards for work now will use VR for work”

VR will represent the "next internet" in that everything will be reinvented around the headset.

We have “files”, “folders” and a “desktop” on our computer because it was a mental crutch that helped us understand how to think about a computer when what we had was paper, pens and desks.

We're currently in the phase where we lean on current navigation/thinking as a crutch, ("watch movies with your friends in a virtual theater!") but eventually we will sort out what a "website" is in this new context, and how we navigate and find things. Everything will be reinvented for this new medium as it moves from early-adopter to the way we interact online. It will be a blended shift, but eventually this will be the primary experience.

How we name the technology that is the exception shows us where we are now during this kind of technology adoption:

“Camera” meant a film camera. We didn’t even think about it.
Then “camera” meant film and we added “digital camera” for context.
Now “camera” means digital, and we would add “film” if needed for context.

“Online” means the internet
“Online in VR” we’ll add for context.
2031: “Online” will mean VR, and we’ll say “legacy internet” (or something like it) to refer to what we now call the internet / online.

Fax
Personal Computer
Cellphone
Internet
Smartphone
Social Media
Electric cars
Remote work pushed forward by COVID <-- we are here
VR

What this means for startups/business:

Macro: As with any of the big leaps forward, some huge companies will fail to make the leap and they'll fall, and some massive new players will emerge. This is the realm of funded startups, because timing this leap is hard, there aren’t immediate revenue opportunities for most companies because the next generation platforms will be built over the next 5 years.

All of the big players are investing into this space. Facebook is the clear leader so far. Apple seems dormant but is great with hardware and will do well here, we just can't see it yet.

Multiple VC-funded companies you've never heard of will be a household names in 2031 because they correctly rode this wave. (Just like Zoom in 2020)

New opportunities:

Exercise will be reinvented around VR. It will be more social and more fun. Perhaps people will move around more rather than less once a computer isn’t something on a desk.

Real estate: People won’t leave their homes as much. Many won’t leave their homes at all. Where you live won’t matter, which will mean cities won’t matter (as much). Massive transfers of wealth will happen because of a shift in real estate values.

Travel / tourism: Completely reinvented. People will travel much less. Now you can see the Eiffel tower, or climb Mount Everest from home. They’ll also travel less because feeling like you are with family/friends will be almost as good as really being with them.

Drones / telepresence: You will use drones when you want to have telepresence. You will see out of the drone, and move / look around using the drone.

What else?