skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Bitcoin will hit $100k next year. I expect it will top out around $400k-$500k before falling down to ~$65k in 2022.... only to start running again and easily exceed $1M per coin in 2025.

This may seem absurd to make such predictions,but it isn't a guess like yours are, it’s based on modeling bitcoins fundamentals. You guess is informed by, presumably, the stock market. That’s reasonable if you think if bitcoin like a stock. But it isn't.

Bitcoin is a new form of money, —the hardest money ever— that is going through the technology adoption lifecycle.

Most people really don’t understand bitcoin, yet adoption grows in fits and spurts, and that’s why we get these huge bubbles in the bull markets and huge pullbacks in the bear market.

But in 2026 if I’m right will you still be predicting inly %10 annual growth in bitcoin price? Will you have remembered this comment?
IPS, TN, now you have this pentile shit
That's not what the sentence you quoted means. When you say "asset X has never traded down over a 5 year period", it means if you look at any day, and then look at the price 5 years later, the price 5 years later will be higher. For a 12 year old asset class, just taking daily prices that means you have over 2500 pairs of prices (1 day compared to a day 5 years later) to look at, and in this case, in all of those 2500 pairs the later price was higher.
You need your helicopter to get to your jet.
Bummer that futex2 didn't make it in yet.
must be a hefty paper shredder on those subs given the revolving door at 10 Downing last few years...
Why is checking for CCP membership racist? Unless, CCP itself is racist ...
Spy technology with military applications still has extremely lavish funding.
I can't stress enough how high quality the writing, acting, and character development is in Ted Lasso, and you don't need to care about sports going into it. What a shame that it doesn't have the fame of something like The Queen's Gambit without the reach of Netflix.
A little related background on Gawker outing people. The original story[1] was made by Owen Thomas, the same writer who outed Peter Thiel. Interestingly, both he and Gawker founder Nick Denton are gay.

1: https://gawker.com/5082473/is-apple-coo-tim-cook-gay

2: https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Gawker-Peter-Thiel-a...
It's because the market sees Tesla as having more growth potential inside and outside the auto industry than incumbent, largely steady-state automakers.

It also has, I would bet without having actually done the comparison, much more stock market volatility than the overall industry, because assessment of Tesla's likely future state fluctuates a lot more than assessment of the likely future state of the incumbent major automakers.
The environment/macro has already changed, and the tariffs are here to stay, even Biden and post-Biden. If you haven't yet adjusted to this, your business is in big trouble as your competitors already have moved from China to other SE countries, and you will most likely fail soon.

As an aside. Most US based businesses have already moved on. It seems that alot of European-run businesses are laggards
If tether was collapsing people would probably panic a bit and try to exit crypto for normal money. It's not certain though.
I suspect this adds to the hype. People comparing them to auto-manufacturers seem to willfully omit that Tesla is also a global auto sales dealership network, a global power storage company (grid power storage), a solar cell installer, sales and manufacturer, a battery manufacturer, and a global transportation power charging network (replacing gas stations).

I’ve yet to read a comparison of Tesla to the sum of all those different markets.
Sure, which is what led me to 'as many as you can afford the childhoods for'.

But then, that still varies according to poor a childhood you're willing to let them have (and to live yourself for the duration).
If we pretend (which is of course not accurate, which is why I say pretend) that the price follows a Wiener process, so that on each time interval the net change across that interval is a normally distributed random variable with mean 0, where the difference across different disjoint intervals are independent,
well, under that inapplicable model, said "7 different times" wouldn't be independent (while the difference across the first 5 years, and across the second 5 years, would be independent, and so that would count as 2 independent observances of that.

I wonder, if you have such a process W, what would the probability of "For all t in [0,7], W_{t+5} > W_t" be?
It would of course be less than (1/4) because it would imply W_5 > W_0 , and also W_12 > W_5 , which would be independent events each with probability 1/2 , and so the probability has to be at most 1/4 . But I assume it probably has a much smaller probability than that.

If instead of a Wiener process, we model it as a Wiener process with drift, as X_t = \mu t + \sigma W_t , how does the probability of "For all t in [0,7], X_{t+5} > X_t" vary with \mu ? (well, obviously, as \mu increases, the probability goes up, but I mean stuff like "how big does \mu have to be in order for it to not be unlikely?" and "how quickly does the probability increase as \mu increases?", etc. . )
We've played nice for decades and motorists have kept causing thousands of preventable deaths and show no signs of stopping. At some point we have to stop pretending these negligent homicides are "accidents".
Those links don't even go to the dates of US defaults in 70s and 30s.

> We, and also other countries, can have fairly big currency changes without much internal inflation or deflation(can depend on country size). A number of countries have actually deliberately devalued their currency in order to encourage growth.

This is all applicable to the reserve currency or massively exporting countries. Not to importing countries, which the US is. The US cannot stop importing without causing massing inflation at the retail counter. No more $10 t-shirts and $100 sport shoes if they are made here.

I would recommend reading the article to truly understand how subsidized our lifestyle is.
A reprehensible and horrific crime for sure, which I don’t want to trivialise, but not an economically consequential one in the grand scheme of things.
That ratio of total gold yo gold that is trading (or mined each year) is called the “stock to flow”.

It’s quite a fascinating metric.

For instance, it dhows that silver is a commodity rather than a precious metal.

Bitcoins stock to flow now exceeds golds.
I like idealistic people. Please, never change.

Me, on the other hand, as a citizen of a very corrupt corrupt country in which the specter of communism still linger heavily, I wonder how many officials would either "malfunction" cameras when cartel members would be caught on video OR would actively help cartel members organize their kidnappings.
Not trying to be rude here, but how many people do actually care about kernel releases?

I've used a bunch of distributions, even rolled my own when I was a teenager. Kernel version back then was around 2.6, and a new release didn't change anything for me as a mostly desktop user.

Is it different for many professionals? Are there people waiting for a new release, are there big problems to be solved or "Linux is ready" and it's mostly maintenance nowadays?
this is hard to say yes, but i can tell you that the live virus will replicate in the cell and increase copy number of its RNA until the cell dies. the vaccine mRNA will remain until degraded and stop producing valid copies.

the vaccine is not the whole mRNA, its only the part that codes for immunogenic protien [SARS-2 S] that is exported to the cell membrane
Re Covid, I'm not sure what the government can do, the news of the virus was plastered all over the news. I don't need to government to tell me that if a novel virus is circulating that I need to avoid contact, the people who continued to live normally decided to roll the dice at their own or elderly family members expense, those people made personal decisions and the poor souls they cam in contact with are paying the price, it's not appropriate to blame the government for those actions of private citizens. There is simply no legal precedent to order people to stay home, would you have declared martial law and arrested anyone seen outside their home?

I'm speaking about republican citizens, not "republican in name only" politicians, don't conflate the two. Politicians of all parties are guilty of saying and doing different things.

People absolutely realize the government has been doing the exact opposite of what orthodox republicans want, that is what made Trump seem worthy of a dice roll, he campaigned on a bunch of goals that claimed to try and reverse those decisions.Those goals were either thrown out once he realized how difficult it would be to actually accomplish them or thrown out because he never cared to give it a real go. Given the long time government employees that either quit or were fired and the resistance from establishment politicians both D and R I lean towards the first reason.

Indeed the military budget has been increased, that is driven by our need to fight two full-blown wars on two fronts, our military strategy is based on a worst case scenario. That is the goal that is not talked about publicly but is true. We can expect the military budget to continue to increase.

Re tariffs, they are the right strategy. The primary job class that has been reduced is manufacturing. A large chunk of those jobs were lost to China, the only way to bring those jobs back is to make those Chinese government subsidized imports less attractive to buyers. The tariff strategy can work but it looks like we need to tax imported goods that could feasibly be made in the US by 100-300%, only then will you go to Wal-Mart and find that the US Made goods are in the same price range as the Chinese goods. This is the same strategy that Euro zone and Asian countries use to keep their citizens buying local. Our politicians sold us out circa ~1979. The implementation of these tariffs was a half-measure, it takes years to plan/design/build/ a factory and bring those products to market, Trump should have focused on a 20 year plan that both parties agreed to continue after he left office.
Discriminative Model vs Generative Model
They still value GDP growth, which they believe requires population growth, so they promote growth overseas and immigration, so most countries with below replacement rates are still growing in population.

People seem to understand that if you move a factory from one country to another you haven't decreased its pollution, especially if the new country has laxer environmental regulations. If you offshore population growth, you haven't decreased population growth either.

I'm not that optimistic either, but hope we learn from examples like Mechai Viravaidya in Thailand https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgMNhMRgkHE that nations can manage populations voluntarily, increasing stability, peace, and abundance per person -- no eugenics, One Child policy, or racism. More like the opposite.
Does mythic quest get a lot better after episode 1? We watched it right after Ted Lasso and it was so ... mean. It _seems_ like something I should like, though.
There are benefits to dark UI for dim environments. The fad that I too am sure will pass is using a jarring UI for the environment just because it is cool.

There are fundamental differences when designing for bright/day vs dim/night that benefits humans. In-car GPS was a specialised UI that paid attention to this earlier than our computers. The night UI maximised clarity in a low-light environment without being distracting. The day UI met the daylight with similar clarity. Never jarring.

Triggering a system-wide change across devices when the sun dips below the horizon is a nice start. The fact that it trickles even as far as webpage and VS Code theme is just awesome stuff.

Speaking to your detrimental cases, maybe the auto-change could be based on ambient light level rather than sunset time. It is certainly possible. Excluding the Nordics, the better solution is likely to move humans closer to natural light. Dim the room or build for natural light, rather than our screens able to be brighter to meet an artificial environment.
This. Over the past few months I've noticed HN slowly slipping into the reddit-esque, us-centric groupthink in the comments section.

The bias is apparent and I fear the trend is accelerating.
I do, but then I like to port them to bespoke ARM systems built using complex FPGAs.
After the pandemic, will inflation return?
But multiple dispatch could also be argued as non-essential complexity... I would much prefer a visitor pattern for the abstraction benefits, for example.
>When we kept everything on paper, organised people had these things called filing cabinets. They stored all of their documents in them in a structured way so that they could find them again.

>Now those same people store all of their files in arbitrarily named folders on their company’s shared drive and wonder why they can’t find anything.

This is the most outrageously false premise on which to base an argument. It's staggering.
I am beginning to believe it might be worth that simply because other auto makers seem to be dragging their feet and getting into lousy deals (Nikola and GM being the most notable).

If retail, grocery, hotels, restaurants, and other traditional industries are any indication, an inability to innovate is deeply entrenched to the point that even knowing that Amazon or Airbnb or DoorDash was coming to eat them, they did/do squat.
That's how I've been looking at it too. Yes, Tesla is overvalued right now but we don't know yet what their actual potential is since they can't keep up with demand. It's likely the valuation is completely unrealistic in the long term. Other EV manufacturers are also seeing pretty fantastic stock growth as well.
I enjoy reading about new kernel features, and 5.10 is somewhat more newsworthy than others as it's a Long Term Support (LTS) release.
It matters to kernel API users (see io_uring), gamers and heavy virtualization users to name a few.
I would prefer it if I didn't have to trust paypal word, and could cryptographically verify their fractional ratio - because in case of a boom, if everybody wanted to get their promises riches, that could also bankrupt paypal overnight.

Actually, the SEC may also want to check whether paypal promissory notes are actually backed by anything but thin air.
FYI 5.10 will be the next LTS kernel.

https://twitter.com/gregkh/status/1320745076566433793?s=19
It's fairly normal for a big company these days: extremely slow pace, red tape all over the place, your level matters more than your skill. It's an engineering-led culture so there's a lot of focus on code nitpicking and purity (arguments over whether mocks are evil, etc).

Great place to work if you're high level (5+) and land on a good team with a good manager. Mind numbingly boring if not.
We're gated on production capacity, not approval speed. A 3 week delay in the Moderna vaccine's approval doesn't remotely cause anything close to 21k deaths. But the risks of incorrectly approving a vaccine that does turn out to be harmful in unexpected ways to certain groups of people are much worse -- that would permanently damage the public trust in coronavirus vaccines and would contribute to more than 21k deaths in the long run.
Minimums probably would mostly just increase the amount of abandoned fallow lots because they're not viable to develop in any form.

All cities need to do is loosen their belts, and loosening zoning belts doesn't mean "become Manhattan", but rather just allowing townhouses, duplexes, triplets, and generally low rise <6 floor buildings, which were fairly common everywhere in cities prior to the introduction of zoning.
I wonder if import taxation that reflects externalities (pollution) and costs that we carry to reduce suffering (child labor, minimum wage) would make a difference.
Phoronix coverage last October: https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=article&item=linux-51...
Yep, real time fuzzy finding makes it so easy to find stuff quickly.

You can hit CTRL+t from the terminal after installing FZF and it will let you fuzzy search for any file you have. So you can do something like run `vim [CTRL+t]` to quickly find and open any file you want, or `cd [CTRL+t]` to switch into some deeply nested directory.

Even inside of WSL 2 with a 6 year old workstation on a first generation SSD it takes ~3 seconds to index 190,000 files and once that index is built, narrowing down results while typing is close to instant when using ripgrep as FZF's search back-end.

The amazing thing about all of this is it's dynamic. There's no having to create aliases or pre-defined directory structures. I only discovered CTRL+t from FZF a few weeks ago but once I did it was almost as good as discovering CTRL+r for the first time.
> some bad combo of gnu with other tools, or a missing lib, or a side effect of system customization, or a beta distro, or something like that maybe?

Oh, I'm sure it is. Debugging it would probably be good practice. I'll just open my working debugger...
I found it fun. There’s more opportunity for sweetness as you get to know the characters. The arc of the QA engineers is excellent.
> national borders are, for the most part, no longer subject to violent change.

This is nonsense.

- China and it's neighbors are on the brink of war over water diversion

- China seized the 9-dashed line islands over navigation and fishing rights, and all of its neighbors are in an arms race

- Armenia just lost disputed territory a couple months ago.

- Britain and the EU are entering a cold war over fishing rights.
I guess Ukrainians could be named "core" USSR ethnic group but Ukrainian Insurgent Army had an ongoing war against Soviets actively during 1942–1949 and sporadically up until 1956.
Yes - going back a century to the various cryptography systems which companies bought to protect telegram messages. Think companies like RSA but also Crypto AG, which is why the NSA subversion was so significant:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crypto_AG

Cryptocurrency has had a huge VC bubble attracting attention to it but that’s mostly a marketing play which I suspect will age as well as “cyber”. The surviving companies will be finance companies, since everyone uses cryptography.
The Boys is pretty good. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1190634/
The author seems to be soliciting artwork submissions for a "Pobox clock" as well so perhaps we could use this opportunity to help out!

https://humanclock.com/poboxclock.php
Pedestrians can shove it. Cyclists on the sidewalk are nowhere near as annoying or dangerous as cyclists on the road, and pedestrians who work to keep cyclists on the road and off of sidewalks have the blood of the unlucky cyclists on their hands...
I enjoy perusing the Kernel Newbies post, well organized and occasionally explained in simpler terms: https://kernelnewbies.org/Linux_5.10
For the most part it's a similar style after. I found it amusing overall just seeing the game development industry being satirized, just like I enjoyed HBO Silicon Valley in that way even if it wasn't necessarily a great show. Episode 5 specifically though comes out of left field, and is one of the best episodes of television on the platform.
Poor people mostly want opportunity. For 2 hundred years that opportunity came in the form of middle pay manufacturing jobs, those job mostly don't exist. Ask a non-disabled non-drug addicted person next time you have the chance, they would rather work and earn their way than get a government check. This has been proven many times going back the Milton Friedman/ Thomas Sowell debates. But you are correct, the rich class prefers to stay rich, that much is bloody obvious. If they could stay rich and have the goods the sell manufactured in the US, they would do that. But the politicians sold us out.
And the existing companies companies do very little about their competition. I didn't invest in Amazon earlier as I thought the retailers would invest in trying to compete.

Nope.
It would be very on brand for Apple.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Designed_by_Apple_in_Californi...
Why are we posting and discussing doxxing information?
Also their top 10 most interesting features overview: https://www.phoronix.com/scan.php?page=news_item&px=Linux-5....

Nintendo switch controller support sounds interesting!
Speaking from first hand experience as "talent" - Apple doesn't know how to make really good TV. It felt to me like it was a lot of middling, risk averse people at the middle layers of production and show running, with an inflated sense of worth . That's pretty common in hollywood - and it generally produces mediocre outcomes - not AMAZING gamechanging outcomes.

They have good line producers and of course great technical talent for set design, editing, production - but the left hand of marketing doesn't talk with the right hand and you get a lot of disjointed efforts.

If you look at Netflix, for all their downsides, they go big and hard, buy working shows based on data and don't shy away from controversy. They also have way better middle talent which I think makes the difference.
On top of that, the parent poster doesn't want to spend 100% of their disposable income on online browsing. If they reserve $80/month for going out, and $20 for online, that's only about 6 sites per month.
> Mr. Tate said he thought frequently about the story [outing Tim Cook] afterward, and even wondered whether Mr. Cook’s parents had known about his identity before the report. “It’s something that gave me pause and that I thought about, but I would do it the same way again,” he said.

This right here tells you everything you need to know about Gawker and people that worked there.
> Some regulations save a thousand lives at a 0.02% increase in costs. Repealing those is bad. Enacting them is good. Some regulations save two lives at a 5000% increase in cost, which could equally be saved by some less expensive regulation. Enacting those is bad. Repealing them is good.

Not to get political but this reminded me of covid-19. Masks and social distancing are an obvious 0.02% increase in costs that save a thousand lives. Lockdowns and extended stay-at-home orders and shutting down businesses so that we start needing to send out trillions upon trillions of stimulus cash to keep companies and people afloat start to cross into "save 2 lives at a 5000% increase in cost" territory
So the legal maximum is ignored, the absent legal minimum is demanded. Doesn't this seem inherently dysfunctional?

The maximum is there precisely so drivers can respond to slower traffic, not so all traffic will conform to that maximum.
I'm waiting for hardware support for my particular laptop model, added in this release.
In this case I am excited as this is the first LTS with some new drivers I am waiting for (adafruit MCP2221A usb GPIO board, new drivers expose USB GPIO)
Also it helps they're the only auto manufacturer building EVs at scale, and more and more jurisdictions around the world are passing laws to ban the sales of ICE vehicles from 2030 onward.
My addition to this: I add “Destroy after {reasonable future date}” to documents that I need to “keep”. I know, for example, that I need to keep my medical receipts for 12 months, but will never reference them after that.

When I go through old documents, I don’t even skim through the contents. I just check the date and remove them if necessary.
FWIW, I'm also sceptical of comments like yours. A nation state involved in a lot of hacking would be interested in spreading your kind of doubts on social media. I'm not trying to accuse you personally, I don't know you from Putin, I'm just wondering why this response has become so popular recently.
Keeping my eye on secondaries becoming available for cloud kitchens. Travis seems to have nailed where the industry sill rebound. Small owners will lose their entire business in this pandemic and then get started again leasing a space and relying on delivery apps to serve customers.

Seems like a major disruptor.
You pretty much just made my point.