skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
>This, not arrogance, is the main reason why so many rate themselves as above average at common tasks. Truly ranking yourself is pretty cognitively difficult. You have to construct a mental model of the full range of driving ability in the population, then place yourself in it. So almost everybody substitutes the much easier question "am I good driver?" instead of "am I an above average driver?". And the reality is most driver, even those slightly below average are basically good drivers.

It's completely wrong to attribute to this to something other than cognitive bias. It's totally cognitive bias although arrogance is too strong of a word.

You can see the dissonance in psychological experiments where people rate each other AND themselves. People who rate you will rate you significantly lower than what you rate yourself. This phenomenon appears consistently across multitudes of psychological experiments and is very very repeatable. This happens in experiments where the questions posed are quantitative but not Binary like you arbitrarily constructed in your examples. For example rate this persons programming skills from 1 - 10 is a typical question arising from this experiment.

You also mentioned how difficult it is to rate yourself. Difficulty is irrelevant in the experiments above as all the humans participating in the experiment will be rating the same thing (yourself) making the difficulty not a factor in the rating as it is the same for all people doing the rating.

I would say that your post itself is an example of this cognitive bias, you literally pulled that "binary question" logic out of thin air. Where is your experimental evidence? What made you place this logic above other forms of equally valid logic but counter to your point? Likely you have a subconscious agenda and your reasoning you presented could represent an arbitrarily constructed scaffold of logic to prop up a world view that makes sense to your cognitive bias. Surely if what I said was true you would never know it and likely you will be pulling more logic out of thin air to deconstruct what I said.

That being said there exists a spectrum of people in the world. The article points out that roughly 90% of people will rate themselves higher than what they actually are. What about the remaining 10% What does psychology say about people who don't lie to themselves?

Experiments have found that people who lie to themselves are experimentally more happier and more successful overall than people who don't, in fact many people who can't lie to themselves actually fit the diagnoses of being clinically depressed.

It is not a case of arrogance, I agree with this, it is more of a case of the fact that we lie to ourselves to be happy.

(Arrogance is a negative word that delivers the wrong connotation, but the most accurate way to put it, is people are arrogant because they need to lie to themselves in order to be happy).
Show HN: I Made a Discord Bot That Finds the Best Giveaways in Gaming
> How were you forced to not transition? Did someone threaten to punish you in the event that you made an attempt to? Or was it just a matter of the procedure not being available to you?

This is a cross examination, not a curious conversation. Read the site guidelines; I'm not going to share that very painful story with you, because you're not doing this in good faith.
(for the record, I don’t mean to call out the fellow who actually made the series of tubes statement, it was just clear to me that even as an analogy it showed a lack of understanding of the basics of how the internet actually functioned, and that people in his position had no ongoing mandate to understand it.)

Here’s an example of what I mean by they have more understanding now:

https://youtu.be/o1MZOtKYnfM

And to a lesser extent: https://youtu.be/kd3Qa9tlA3o
I'm more in the Tetlock camp when it comes to forecasting the future. One tenant in his book Superforcasting talked about a car heading towards a brick wall.

At the current velocity, there will be a catastrophic event to the driver. However, what do people normally do in these situations? With proper prudence, they come to a safe stop before the wall. Some will, at the last moment slam the brakes and come to a sliding, screeching stop before hitting the wall. Another set will swerve and wrap around a tree or end up in a ditch. While a very small amount will actually never hit their brakes and hit the wall at said velocity.

The initial data statement regarding velocity is technically not wrong, at all. Its extremely logical and true. However it lacks taking into account the human factor. Humans are not equations. All prediction methods regarding human action revolve around math, loosely or strongly. We dont possess math that accurately depicts human actions. Folks like Taleb are so far removed from having social skills or friends, he forgets other humans exist. Perhaps it's a sociopathic or psychopathic tendency where they see no value in other humans. I always forget which one is which.

Now, we can argue economics is a study to do this in a narrow field. Which I agree to. However, the best educated economists who aren't trying to sell you a get rich quick scheme all say roughly the same thing, "people are cray cray".

Poker is also a good example of this logic. Particularly the meta play the experts are at. Poker is beyond the standard statistical average of hands, which is all there is to blackjack. You still have the human element. That's what makes it more difficult.

People like Taleb try to over simplify concepts that scare them because they dont like to be wrong. Tetlock proved in various gov studies that people can become substantially BETTER (obviously not perfect nor does he claim to have a perfect solution) than average guessing by embracing the chance of being wrong. When embracing the potential of being wrong, you list out the potentials, the whys and then figure out the catalysts. Instead of having a single cone of prediction that widens over time, you have multiple smaller ones based on potential future actions. You apply confidence rates to each one as part of your prediction process.

I... dont remember why I got on that rant. I remember I wanted to make a joke that Taleb is an idiot and essentially agree with you, but wanted to give a good reason why along with it. Moral of the story, forecasting the near future is possible, but takes a lot of work and research to do it effectively. Dynamic and complex systems are not impossible to understand if you're willing to put in the work and in doing so, you will only be "so wrong" rather than blatantly wrong... second moral Taleb is a twat.
New EU regulations to introduce 10% turnover fines for big platforms
I find it a reason to celebrate, flash was a blight on the web for far too long
> If you owned a store and someone walked in and started shouting Nazi propaganda or recruiting terrorists near the cash register, would you, as the shop owner, tell all of the other customers you couldn’t possibly intervene?

Perhaps a better metaphor is how a Jehovah's Witness was forbidden to preach from a sidewalk of a company town. She was later found in her right to do that by the Supreme Court.

But in both of these cases, the issue is that of scale - neither compares to Facebook's megascale.
That is why they are using their enormous wealth investing across the world, buying properties etc (google how much oil money went into London olympics related real estate, for example). It would be nice to get rid of these shitty ruling class, but it would be very very difficult.
> WebRender rolls out to MacOS Big Sur, Windows devices with Intel Gen 6 GPUs, and Intel laptops running Windows 7 and 8.

Does WebRender imply major speed up?
The DEA has cracked down tremendously on healthcare providers that over-prescribe opioids, though. Granted I'm sure there are many who still prescribe them like crazy, but it seems like active measures are being taken to curb it.
I think it's phrased "may be collected" because often data will only be collected under certain circumstances, either because the user chooses to fill in optional fields or because they use a specific feature requiring that data.
Many of the brightest on the East Coast get sucked into finance.
Yeah that's not happening.
Seattle because Amazon hires and relocates thousands of engineers there who then quit or are PIPed a year or two later, leaving them looking for new opportunities or building new companies.
*raises the question
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question
I've noticed that I tend to get minor acne-like breakouts on my face from a few things (like pre-packaged chocolate chip cookie dough, as well as several other products) - enough where I looked through the ingredients to try to isolate the cause. Palm oil is my top suspect, but I haven't found anyone else talking about these symptoms with Palm oil. Has anyone else experienced anything like this?
So that’s why Slack consumes tons of RAM but Telegram desktop doesn’t ...
> they still have to KYC (Know Your Customer).

This is false. KYC regulations do not apply to app stores, only banking and financial services: regulated industries.

Furthermore, nothing requires Apple restrict App Store downloads of free apps to logged in/registered users only. This is a hoop they make people jump through so that there is less friction at time of purchase of a paid app or (more importantly) a "free" app's IAP. It's a signupwall hustle.

> The reason you can trust Apple (for now) about protecting consumer privacy is that they aren't selling it to unknown third-parties make MORE money off of you.

Apple sent the data of over 30,000 users to the US government last year without a warrant or probable cause, per Apple's own transparency report (look under the FISA orders category—this is the stuff that Ed Snowden disclosed under the internal/classified codename PRISM).

Data brokers can't cause federal prosecutors to harass me because I said something they didn't like. The federal government can.
>Totally agree that Match group is an interesting under-the-radar one. It's shocking how much of the market they control with all their "competing" apps.

I wonder if this means that we should all start starting dating app companies, given that apparently it's a guaranteed sale if you can attract enough users. We could start the "match group group," stamping out standardized dating apps and putting proven amounts of brand-building effort into each one, and selling them to Match Group at a repeatable price.
Ask HN: Adobe added its Chrome Extension without my intervention
Hi. Im new here.

I was doing something else and suddenly Chrome Browser announces that a new extension has been added (https://www.dropbox.com/s/yd5uk7961wzl4ow/Screen%20Shot%202020-12-15.png?dl=0). This is the extension that got added: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/adobe-acrobat/efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj

As of a few years ago i have treated Adobe as a trojan that takes over my system and never seems to leave even if i delete it.

My question is, is Chrome allowed to automatically add extensions that can read all my data?
Learning to learn is a critical skill to hone in and of itself, regardless of if what you're learning is 'wasted'.
mac doesn't have realpath command.
The tech sounds really cool. But cant help but feel its going to be a a privacy nightmare. Also, just like how fingerprints are a weak signature, imagine people trying to use this chip's signature as a means to sign for something.
And then they leave the area after a while leaving nothing for anyone. I posted the links for a reason and that's because they support my claims. People like to ignore the facts in favor of their feelings and emotions.
> My point is that deprecation is by its very nature going
> to hurt something that isn’t prepared for its demise.

TFA describes techniques for deprecating code paths that do their best to notify and prepare the folks working with that code.

You're describing the end of Life of Adobe Flash that hits at the end of 2020.

Deprecation is different from EOL (Flash has been deprecated for some time now), and deprecating/EOLing a creation tool/product line has little similarity with tooling to deprecate internal APIs gracefully.

Although I do think that you and TFA agree on how difficult it is to deprecate functionality that folks rely on, it seems like you're talking about two wildly different facets of that statement.
The biggest hit will be on tax revenue, new "sexy" businesses dont tend to make as much money as the zombie companies that seem to print money
Soybeans and corn don't replace rainforest. Palm oil does. No?
If Google offered more with Duo, people would use it for events. Then people wouldn't use Google meet when they go to work. Meet is part of Gsuite.
The extension API changed (web extensions). The plugin API is still NPAPI. There was a project to replace the API with the one that chrome uses, which has better sandboxing, but eventually they abandoned that project.
>Citations please.

1969: Dietary sugar and coronary heart disease J Yudkin

1973: https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article-abstract/26/5/524/4816...

1977: "Diet-Heart: End of an Era" Mann George V

2002: https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/01.CIR.0000019552.77...

2009: Sugar: The Bitter Truth, Robert Lustig (MD, PhD)

There's significant studies done in the last 10 years. We know for a fact that carbs/sugar are the problem. Virtually all diabetes associations now push low carb diets.

I suspect these citations will mean nothing, I'm down around -10 for this post. Like I said, going to be huge amounts of resistance to this one.
Would you mind capturing a profile? https://blog.paul.cx/post/profiling-firefox-media-workloads/... explains how.

It's very very very simple and quick, there is a video demo and a text explaining what to do, and then you can open a bug at https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/enter_bug.cgi?product=Core&comp..., with the profile link (you can login with a github account or email). This will be triaged and hopefully we'll understand what's up. Please use a Nightly build or a Mozilla-provided build when doing so (so there are symbols). It's just a matter of downloading and untaring the tarball.

Please also attach a copy of `about:support` raw data (button at the top), so we can understand what your configuration is: desktop Linux systems can be pretty diverse and sometimes it isn't clear what works, what doesn't and why.

If you're playing 480p, then youtube might be serving you AV1, and this is (for now) using the CPU (trading a lot less bandwidth for increased CPU usage), you can check the codec it's using by right clicking on the video and clicking on `Stats for nerds`, there is the codec string. You can adjust your codec preferences in your youtube profile I believe.
there is a lot of evidence to suggest that high housing costs cause homelessness
Ask HN: Is GitHub Sherlocking Actions?
GitHub recently announced an auto merge PR feature (looks great!). However, I've been using an OSS GitHub Action for a while (link below) and I wonder if anyone has noticed other OSS Actions being quietly ported into GitHub (one that comes to mind is the stale branch feature introduced a while back). I have published Actions - and would like to publish more - but I'm a little concerned by this. Should I be?

https://github.com/pascalgn/automerge-action
Well, the Atlantic is not really free now, but I feel that this criticism still applies :

https://samzdat.com/2017/10/13/the-guardians-inferno/

(This is not just about social media.)
Plenty of legacy enterprise software which is costly to upgrade still relies on Flash for UI.
2 GB on a fresh install? That would be definitely a bug. Did you check the storage usage (settings, storage)? Is it there as well?

Your debug logs would also be welcome for messages taking hours to appear. For mobile it's usually something with battery savings or FCM. For desktop that's the first time I read about that, are you sure that the messages had actually been sent?

I feel that for mobile it is still not as reliable as WhatsApp, but for desktop it's nice to be able to get your messages without mobile connection.
Donate directly to Mozilla/Firefox?

http://donate.mozilla.org/
You do end up caring about the skill of people that affect your life. And they care about how you affect theirs. And if you're not a narcissist, you'll care when you affect someone's life negatively.

In this way, we rate each other about how they affect our lives. This is important because the feedback generated is used to improve things. However, it should not be a terminal rating and re-evaluation should always be possible unless you commit very serious crimes.
Hm? It's right there at the start:

"Years ago, we did a study to determine whether anyone at Google is particularly good at hiring. We looked at tens of thousands of interviews, and everyone who had done the interviews and what they scored the candidate, and how that person ultimately performed in their job. We found zero relationship.

...One of the things we’ve seen from all our data crunching is that G.P.A.’s are worthless as a criteria for hiring, and test scores are worthless — no correlation at all except for brand-new college grads, where there’s a slight correlation. Google famously used to ask everyone for a transcript and G.P.A.’s and test scores, but we don’t anymore, unless you’re just a few years out of school. We found that they don’t predict anything."
“Some who have already left San Francisco complained of mismanagement of the city and state. Though it's not clear what exactly they're referring to” (read this the other day)

“Haven't left Silicon Valley; they're still continuing to employ people”

There is this general aloofness of the problems. They need to address it head on and make it more hospitable for companies and residents.
What did he misrepresent?
Agreed, I doubt the EU is going to do that too. I replied assuming that the parent was from Kashmir/India.
I’ve seen comments about the “end of Silicon Valley” as early as 1993.

Though back then you could get a house in Cupertino for 300k?

It’s now $3M.

This has some effect and makes living here to start a company higher risk.
Music shows us the mind is more than a machine
Firefox is way too valuable as a hedge against Google hegemony to let die. If they ever lose the Google search money hose and become threatened I do expect a Google competitor to realize that and step in with some funding.

Microsoft basing Edge on Chromium was a really stupid move on their part for this reason, and I suspect they are starting to realize it.

That being said, I only expect it to be maintained at a hedge level, not enough to shoot for dominance again. Think of it like Valve's Steam on Linux efforts -- it's not a major effort on their part, it's just enough to keep Microsoft honest.
“Fraud”...uh-huh. Please be clear that you mean AD fraud and not fraud-fraud.

Also: boohoo
Apple seems to want to show privacy labels even for anonymized data which isn't linked to the user. Here's their App Store app showing category "Data Not Linked to You": https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT211971
I use PrivateInternetAccess (yes I know they were bought by a shady company, but I'm in the "wait for evidence of a problem" camp). Just did a test with fast.com, and I had 370Mbps with VPN, 410Mbps without. Perfectly OK for me.

But as I alluded in my original post, since it seems like my ISP doesn't do any monkey business, I mostly leave it off. I have specific services running in my network that use it, but my vanilla traffic is unencrypted from my router.

That said, even with no VPN I have a pihole backed by DNS-over-HTTPS, and almost all traffic (above 95%) goes over HTTPS or SSH anyway.
Take a look at Google Private Join and Compute[1]. But be aware that the problem you frame is an unsolved research problem with an active global community. The topics you are looking for are applications of secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption. Also, be ready for something as simple as a column join to take 24 hours per query.

[1] https://github.com/Google/private-join-and-compute
A Serverless Payment Workflow Using AWS Lambda and the AWS CDK
According to adobe the plugin will stop loading content in January regardless of the browser
Aren’t they making an Atari hotel? Is that what you had in mind?
Exactly this. When I advertise, I don’t care if a million users see it. I just care that Ad Spend < CAC.

Getting the initial price is going to be hard, but over time, rates will start to become known.
Yes, the problem lies not with the technology, but with the gross asymmetries created by wealth and power imbalances. There is an enormous difference in the danger posed by an individual salesperson using cognitive bias on a personal level, and a multibillion-dollar conglomerate using it in an automated, industrial way to exploit millions of people. Those two situations should be regulated very differently.
Prior: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25431697

Not quite logged in yet - had a "AWS CloudShell is temporarily unavailable because it's being activated" screen for a while now. Fingers crossed!
A law that assumes things that are not available is evidently wrong. A judge will soon tell you that.
Thanks for the solid article! Reminds me about some bash writing that I have been avoiding.
Dendrite (next gen Matrix homeserver) 2020 Progress Update
I see, thanks for the explanation. Just read your previous blog post that goes into more detail about this. [1] I don't know much about compilers, but I guess Defect Report #260 supports the interpretation that dereferencing q isn't the same as dereferencing (p+1), even inside an if block where p+1 == q: "[Implementations] may also treat pointers based on different origins as distinct even though they are bitwise identical." [2]

[1] https://www.ralfj.de/blog/2018/07/24/pointers-and-bytes.html

[2] http://www.open-std.org/jtc1/sc22/wg14/www/docs/dr_260.htm
LibDSL: A Library for Developing Embedded Domain Specific Languages in D
Visa dropping Pornhub is bad for women
"This page would work a little better if javascript were enabled."

Would it really, though?
or a modern bash built in (grrrr)
Plenty of company CEO’s know little to nothing about taxes and simply hand relevant details to a different firm. Growth gives exponential returns, taxes give linear returns which is why they can be ignored for years. Regulations are similarly irrelevant for most companies, as long as the competition needs to play by the same rules they tend to zero out as just a cost of doing business.
A fruit fly brain in a pickle jar connected to wires?
Funny how everybody began to downvote me after totally misunderstanding my point in muddled fashion.

I wasn't talking about hospitals going private - after all, there are private hospitals in Europe and the UK too. I was talking about poor price transparency in the US being adopted in all of those places by private players. I specifically called out government players in the US, since they engage in the same practice, while government hospitals in all of those countries do not.
From what I remember, the old clipboard API didn't distinguish between an app inspecting the clipboard content (dangerous) and merely checking if the clipboard contains data and what its type is (harmless).
Quantum Approaches to Music Cognition
Penne is pasta but not a noodle.

Rice noodles aren't pasta.

Pasta refers to the substance the food is made from, not its form.
Well, I wasn't taking the OP's idea to mean only splitting off the crawler. Why not an API where you send it the search query and then it returns the results? It could have a variety of return options including using a ranking of the API publisher's choosing or you could ask for something raw, and innovate with an even better or more suitable ranking based on your specific needs.

In the end, the point would be to make Google closer to what it was at the beginning -- just input and output. No ads on top of it, no bundling with other offerings etc. And if the publisher's ranking remains as good as it should, then surely some will be willing to pay not only for the raw data, but the ranking as well.