skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
It's a matter of scale. If I go outside and turn on a leaf-blower I can tell you with relatively high confidence the speed and direction of general air movement five feet out from the nose. On the other hand, if I tried to tell you the speed and direction of a dozen particles at X, Y, Z location in coordinate space, the effects of chaos (particles individually colliding, etc) would make this infeasible with current technology. Similarly, describing climate is like describing the general direction and speed of air moving out from the leaf blower, while weather is like trying to make the same prediction for small groups of particles within the system. They might sound like similar tasks, but due to chaos one is doable and the other is nearly impossible.

All that being said, with regards to this particular study at the scale of 500 years it's likely our climate models nearly completely break down, as we've yet to successfully create one without significant divergence even a few decades out (although maybe that has changed as by definition the best ones we can test against only include those made before the year ~2000)
Except bad things did happen. Like their capricious application of Appstore “guidelines”; the increasing difficulty of running software on Mac where the developer won’t pay Apple a tithe; the drop in Linux support for the platform, as they locked it down more and more at hardware level; the imposition of their authentication and payment portals (and hence 30% taxes all around) on web apps... etc etc etc.

We have been effectively boiled like obedient frogs.

I love macOS but my next laptop won’t be a mac and my next phone won’t be an iPhone. Divesting from the ecosystem will be painful but we’re well past any grace period at this point.
Trying for a rough estimate of the yearly cost of taking a multivitamin daily, I get about $10 USD a year. For the 15% of the global population that live on less than $2 a day, that's around a week's wages. For the 56% that live on $2 - $10 a day, it's slightly more affordable, but still a significant cost.

Now, that's a cheap multivitamin, so it's got about 300IU of vitamin D, which is a pretty small dose. At a guess it's probably cheaping out on some of the other ingredients as well. On the other hand, ingredients bought in bulk and distributed through outlets in the developing world with very low overhead might be more affordable.

EDIT: the numbers for global poverty are probably out of date, but you get the point
> Consumer usage nowadays is very browser centered

But it's also just as likely that you're using a browser made by Google, and using other services made by one of the big companies that don't care about your privacy. Where's the difference?
I don't understand this point. Do both.
The last hoax that I almost fell for was an ad in the Facebook app.
The tips I would give are: 1) focus on correlations in hard data, there's a lot of bullshit out there and wishful thinking, but as we know causation means correlation, 2) look at further away situations - your own country 100 years ago, 200 years ago, historic empires, other major economies, minor economies. Human behavior is similar across time and space and political arrangements.

Also, reach out to the source. Want to know if "China is hoarding dollars?" Well try to verify it yourself via Treasury data or IMF data. Want to know how does Apple actually make money? Read their statements at sec.gov

Also, if you want names:

Ray Dalio puts out a lot of good research for free as a means of building his legacy. Robert Shiller wrote a lot of good econ. As far as investing goes it's really tough to beat the common sense logic of Warren Buffett and co. and Benjamin Graham and co. The true masters of speculation include George Soros and Jesse Livermore.
Was really hope this would be about Eschaton (the Infinite Jest varietal)
Imagine you are a software developer and want to learn about the boot process and implement your own bootloader. A popular exercise.

You can't boot your self-written software on your "own" Apple Silicon Mac. There is no way to disable the locked down boot process.

You may argue that it's still your computer and you can do what you want with it. You're wrong.
> "I would suggest that the users here are probably some of the best suited in the world to help smooth those rough edges"

How would you get around the problem that many vocal Linux users think easy-to-use software is for weak losers, and consider difficult software a sign of manliness and an identity, even a religion? This is like saying Buddhists would be the best suited people to disarm gun-lovers, without considering that said gun-lovers don't want to be disarmed, and see pacifists as weak and unmanly.
> Of course neither side would use all their active warheads on the opposing country; they would save some for other nations

Nor would all of those warheads will detonate, land on target (some will hit and target the ocean) or launch successfully.

> But full scale nuclear war would eliminate North America,

I doubt it. Maybe you're being hyperbolic here, to whit.

If you eliminate the top 20 US ports, the aircraft carriers and a couple military bases (including Washington DC), you have destroyed modern USA but you do have to wait out the sub launches and miscellaneous hidden missile silos. There's little point to sending nukes to Montana, Kansas, etc. Nothing more (probably a lot less). Show me something that asserts anything more is necessary.

You don't eliminate land and population you dont have to, to win a war. Mad-max wastelands are hyperbolic fantasy that ignore basic human agency, imo. Country X isn't scared of refugees or natives of Louisiana forming an invasion force to retaliate so there's no reason to wipe out the land. Again, misfires happen and nuclear fallout is bad for everyone, but that's not the same thing as "eliminating" NA.
It was rumored for like a decade. The last 32-bit computers were sold in something like 2007-2008? High Sierra started throwing warnings when you launched 32-bit apps. In 2018, they announced Mojave would be the last version to support them. Mojave just got an update yesterday and will likely get updates for at least another year. So nobody has been forced out yet.

I'm aware end users with discontinued software were forced into some no-win choices. But as an ecosystem, it's one example where this happened and was given a ~15 year possible window and an explicit 4 year window to transition.
Disclaimer: I'm not knowledgeable in that topic. But from a general physics PoV:

- weather is mostly about complex local interactions between air pressure / surface temperature / air flow (convection) / humidity etc. these are described by differential equations with very chaotic behaviour (small changes in inputs may have extreme effects on the outputs the further you run the model)

- climate is more about long-time effects of the energy input/output of the whole planetary surface and atmosphere. Mostly solar radiation (input) vs. black-body radiation (output). There are also some complex interactions and feedback cycles e.g. change of albedo (cloud cover), and changes of atmospheric composition (i.e. methane due to permafrost melting), but local weather patterns may cancel out when looking at the sum-total of surface thermal energy.
It is (too) expensive, but crap is certainly not.
What dead end?

Dinosaurs that roamed the Earth 250 million years ago knew a world with five times more carbon dioxide than is present on Earth today:
https://www.livescience.com/44330-jurassic-dinosaur-carbon-d...
> It gets pretty complicated (and error prone), though, with the number of different code paths that have to be maintained.

This seems a little unlikely. Unless the billing side of things was too complex? :)
And they were the biggest headaches on my team, bar none, of them all. An absolute nightmare to coordinate--and it seemed like even minor things that should be unrelated, e.g., a locally installed system (not python) package slightly off-version, could eat a developer's time trying to resolve.
Have rogue orcas really been attacking boats in The Atlantic?
Do you want political control over key internet infrastructure? Because that's how you get political control over key internet infrastructure...
It's missing one of my favorite mind blowing color illusions - the "checker shadow illusion": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Checker_shadow_illusion
The square A and B are exactly the same color, even though you would be 100% sure they are not. I used to print it out and bring it to school and everyone would argue with me that they are different color. I would also have a cut-out mask to cover the rest and prove they are not :-).
Look at Sweeden, they didn't lockdown, life pretty much normal over there. Sure the number of case is "high" but vast of the majority of covid case are asymptomatic or only have mild symptoms.

Taiwan also don't have lockdown.

Peru on the other hand had early and strict lockdown and now they have high death and still in lockdown.

The better solution for the usa is to open up right now.
Ask HN: Have you been angel investing?
What kind of deal do you usually propose ? investment vs equity ?
The harmonic series is never perfectly in phase in acoustic instruments. In many instruments it isn't even perfectly in tune, never mind perfectly in phase.

In fact it isn't always in phase in electronic instruments. As soon as you add a filter sweep the harmonics are going to have small time-varying phase shifts because the filter phase offsets change with frequency.

None of this alters that this is a perceptual issue. Timbral fusion - which is a form of perceptual modelling - means we hear closely related harmonic patterns as single sound objects coming from a single physical source. We use our models to identify sound-generating objects/animals/events around us.

That happens in brain firmware, possibly because it's evolutionarily optimal. But it's possible - at a stretch - to imagine evolutionary contexts in which timbral fusion wouldn't be a useful answer, and it would be more effective to hear individual overtones.

Or possibly both. Some trained musicians, piano technicians, organ makers, and so on can pick out individual overtones.
Make OCSP fail locked and it would be a software imprisonment protocol instead.
It’s one thing to build highly optimised things and another to build things that work just well enough.
Weather is the day to day fluctuations in atmospheric conditions. They are extremely sensitive to minor changes making it hard to predict. It’s even possible to actively change the weather by seeding clouds to start rain for example.

Climate involves long term trends which are quite stable and predictable.

It’s kinda like the stock market. There may be lots of fluctuations in a given day, but most traders are interested in long term trends which tend to be more stable and predictable.
skia isn't the only alternative. Qt includes a pretty complete 2D painting engine as well.
I use Arch btw.
> Almost nothing actually gets "bipartisan" support these days

There is bipartisan support - for breaking encryption: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EARN_IT_Act_of_2020#Legislatio...
Every company I've worked at for the last 10 years has developed exclusively on macOS.

Linux is fine, but it doesn't just work, and it needs to in order to gain a foothold not just in the developer community but with the general public -- that's the lesson Android has taught us. Until it does it will not budge the numbers. It just won't.

The real apologism here comes from the Linux community, who believes that by virtue of existing, and not being an Apple or Microsoft project, it should be widely accepted in spite of being a distant third in usability. Linux needs to step up its game or it will forever remain a distant third. The general public does not care about "free and open source" -- heck they barely care about privacy at all. That's just us, the HN crowd.

I love Linux in theory, I use it a lot, but my daily driver is macOS. Frankly it likely will remain so even as I transition to being an Android engineer in the coming months.
Lenovo has got to be amongst the top, imho.
Ever watch an ad that's so good, you can feel yourself being manipulated? I equate freedom in the Huxleyworld to be like that. So long as you're aware that your choices are, through overwhelming convenience, limited to whatever the machine allows, you're free. The implication is that you can, with enough effort, choose something outside that range. Perhaps as a hobby, the way some people today brew their own beer or make their own furniture.
It looks like yabai (mostly) works on Big Sur: https://github.com/koekeishiya/yabai/issues/589
Yes, I also find this to be true. Large companies have sometimes long and arduous procurement processes. Oftentimes, it works best when you can get on their preferred vendors list, as they will refer to those known vendors first.

How did you bill for your projects? Did you do fixed bids? Or did you do time and materials?
I will state it more plainly than 'old fashioned'. I find your assumptions about what Women want from their tech products offensive and from what I can gather, just based on you wanting to believe it really badly.

In addition to that... I actually sold the damn things to actual human beings! I KNOW who is buying them! I've met them by the thousands! It's like approaching a mechanic about why Ford's don't break down by pointing vaguely at some tables.

Your data doesn't particularly support your views either.
I'm unaware of this, I don't have the book, do you have any other references? This genuinely interests me. TIA
...and the idea of a secure computer in general...
The Dutch health care system is allergic to preventative care. It's stunningly hard to try and just get routine things checker/done. As an Australian, having lived in four different countries, I'd say the Dutch system is the odd one out here.
I'm curious if this falls under the "Check this box to send metrics to Apple to help us make things better" checkbox you get when you first login to your Mac after a reinstall.

Anyways I don't understand why this process would not be completely asynchronous.
Depends on what technical level you have, how much time you have, and what's on your storage device.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/enuGsZoFLR4KyEx3n/parapsycho...

The phenomenon is not restricted to parapsychology, though; it runs through everything but the hardest, most objective experiments.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replication_crisis
> I'm sorry that it feels that way.

I think it is that way, and this is an attempt to make it feel a different way.
Problem is it's broken from a security POV. This Big Sur release of course has a bunch of security fixes and it's not clear when/if they'll get backported to previous versions.
Ah, I'd forgotten about Enlightenment. Did Samsung give up on it? I am reminded of this wonderful post on thedailywtf:

https://what.thedailywtf.com/topic/15001/enlightened
OpenJDK 16 EA for Mac OS on Apple Silicon
It is funky, but importlib package resources helps.
I like the fact that the graphics of the OP look distinct on first sight, whereas the colorful one all look similar.

I personally see the in the same realm as these generic blog post icons you get when you don't assign a picture to you account.
Climate is relatively stable and predictable until it's not: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_temperature_record
Windows 10 is also working against you with its telemetry and ads.
We shouldn't have to work against the interest of the company that sells us the software running on our PCs. This will lead to more problems down the road.
I'm on the precipice of losing my job, and having never been unemployed, I'm very worried about it.
Do you actually need metrics? It's usually obvious who is very productive and who is not.
'All?' I never said 'all'. Why assume something I didn't say.

I have worked with codebases that have long functions and they bury bugs because long funcs tend to = copy/pasted code.
Amen. Looking at you, Greenpeace.
Thank god the Green New Deal was rejected.
Then one should talk about how convenient the related abstractions are. I like the concurrent.futures library.
While you can never be sure, you can apply your model to the past and see if it can predict the present.
btw, when you install any app on Android, it sends a huge hash (maybe the whole thing) to Google servers.

Try to install an apk without internet connection, and then try over a slow 3G connection to see the several(!) minutes it takes.

If your phone has the old style data arrows, you will see the upload one all the time while you stare at the "installing" screen.
US government holds off enforcing ban on TikTok
Thank you for the link.The search engine is pretty good.
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I am missing a party in this discussion: The role of the github monoculture. Because all these repos are hosted by the same party, one lawyer writing one letter can cause global disruption.

Github did nothing wrong here. They got an important, maybe controlling share of the market by creating a great product. While they might have a monopoly, I see no abuse of it.

But that's irrelevant for the rest of the world. The simple existance of the monoculture makes all of us vulnerable to attacks.
Do you have some examples of limitations they faced?
These Are Called Opportunities
Correlation does not imply causation. If you consider Epic, they take only what was it, 18% of the sale. But they're not allowed to compete on Apple's platform...
For cultural customs, I am not sure which country to take. For US and UK (which dominate the statistics on stuff like this due to language and other factors), women spend significantly more.

> The 2013 data contradicts your claim.

It doesn't. Men want iPhone less than women. My initial point was simply that people here and on reddit (men dominated sites) are not reflective of apple's focus.

31% of men wanted Android while only 24% of women wanted the same.

> PS: Only the latest iPhone has best camera. They traded places with Pixel, Samsung, etc... over the last few years.

This is misleading. While iPhones fared worse than pixel in photo department for 3 years, they make up to it in other aspects especially video. As for Samsung, it depends on what you consider better camera. iPhone arguably has the best color profile and accuracy while Samsung phones does beautification and increase contrast which does make them look nicer but overall, not accurate.
Code signing is an okay thing as long as the signing identities don't get discriminated. Android has had code signing ever since it was released, but you always generated the certificate yourself, and the purpose was simply to stop someone else from making an apk with the same package id that would install over yours and gain access to its data.

The thing Apple does, on the other hand, with trusting themselves more than the user, is disgusting. I'm mostly libertarian, but if I ever become a president, this would be one of the first things I'd make illegal, right after shortening the copyright term to like 3 years.
I'm in a similar spot. Now I'm hesitant to purchase any Apple products.
A related question I've asked myself a few times already, with no good answer yet: is it good for the long-term health of an OSS project if it has sponsored developer(s) from a single company?

If Cairo didn't have that support, it might have fizzled out much earlier. Or a more heterogeneous community might have emerged, which would be more resilient to a single sponsor dropping out.

If anybody has data (not just anecdotes) regarding this question, I would be very grateful!
This is a big part of Kurt Mendelssohn's thesis in The Riddle of the Pyramids, which is a very enjoyable read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Mendelssohn#The_Pyramid_T...

Also, I am pleased that this discussion is in a thread about Cairo.
Fascinating. I wonder what's out there, especially deep in oceans.
In Germany you have to pay (35-40 EUR) for your blood test to check for deficiency even if you were previously found deficient and must re-check after supplementing. My doctor also doesn't give a fuck and never asked me to re-test.
To me it looks like TRIZ (in the Liberating Structures sense) on the whole world. Make something better by conceiving of all the ways we could screw it up, then noticing how much of those we’re doing already
Don't weaponize your poor understanding of chaos theory into climate change denial.

One of the defining properties of a chaotic system is that phase-space is bounded. Meaning while it's fundamentally difficult to make predictions about a specific trajectory beyond a certain point, one can still say things about trajectories on average.
Crawling is difficult these days as recaptcha and other measures keep bots out if you are not google or MS
I'm not going to comment on the linked article, other than say I think it contains serious mistakes in describing what OCSP is for and errors in other statements.

In the background there is a war going on, but it isn't what you think. It is a war between malware creators and OS creators.

From my perspective it goes like this:

To "identify" malware you need signatures. Signatures need valid certificates. Signing keys get lost (or worse stolen), bad actors need to get identified and their identity revoked.

If you don't have signatures you will end up with polymorphic malware. (Brew, pip, ruby gems, npm make me uneasy with how much external trust they require!)

To stop persistence you need some system immutability and secure startup / boot.

If you don't have secure startup / boot you will allow persistence in ways it may be impossible to remove.

If you don't have an encrypted disk protected by a passphrase, a lost device means your personal data is now potentially now "public". If you don't also have the other above protections having a passphrase at this point may be meaningless.

I use an iPhone because it boots from ROM and a DFU Restore wipes all mutable firmware. The flash, where my data is stored is encrypted. When I can, I will also use an Apple Silicon Mac because it works the same way.

Hardware products and operating systems from other vendors and sources do not have these protections. Some attempt to, but the implementations are very flawed or poor - I choose not to use them with my personal information.

For me, Apple products really are designed to protect my personal information.
Apple never gonna change right? Seems like we will see iphone style thing in future where we only can download app from their store. Switching to linux right now :/
Apple outages affecting Mac apps, Big Sur updates, iMessage, and more
Gnu Guix would be a great one ! (the package manager, not the distro GNU Guix System)

https://guix.gnu.org/

https://guix.gnu.org/en/blog/2019/gnu-guix-1.0.0-released/

https://guix.gnu.org/en/blog/2020/gnu-guix-1.1.0-released/

https://guix.gnu.org/#guix-in-other-distros

https://guix.gnu.org/en/blog/2020/guile-3-and-guix/
> (Also, what RIAA is trying to remove is the code that allows to get the music video files from YouTube, which is served differently to normal videos. This was conspicuously absent from all discussions I've read.)

It's absent because RIAA's intent is not stated. They did a blanket takedown, unprompted. As far as I can tell they never requested any particular modification. IIRC the only hint that it might be related is a mention that the rolling cipher algorithm that YouTube-dl "circumvents" was ruled to be DRM under German law.

However, the bulk of the DMCA seems to be leveled at the marketing of ytdl as a circumvention tool, citing unit tests containing metadata referencing RIAA-owned content (unit tests, apparently, are now part of 'marketing,' I guess.)
why was the quality so low? even back in 70s broadcasts had better quality than this
It seems like most people greatly overestimates their understanding of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25037147