skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
His probability of Florida being won by that much was basically 0. But it was actually almost the opposite, in the real world the probability of Biden winning was almost 0.

The polls were so far off systematically in one direction - it doesn’t mean he was right about the 10% chance, because that would mean there was equally likely a chance they were all off in the other direction, which is obviously just wrong. Polling missed huge groups of voters opinions - it was just wrong.

We have numbers now that show that Trump voters also aren’t forthcoming on their vote. Probably on purpose as an effect of last election and being spiteful towards pollsters in general. I actually had this as a strong prior, so my model predicted this would be close, but of course if you “just go by the polls” you’re essentially trusting a flawed system that is gameable. Anyone who trusts the polls is essentially a fool next time, they have been shown to be incorrect now twice in large amounts and I wouldn’t doubt that the “meme” the right has started to purposely deceive them continues even after Trump.

You are absolutely wrong on your 49ers analogy and the 10% covering this. Florida disproves it, as do the systemic nature of being off. If they weren’t off systematically, you’d have expected the polls to get Florida wrong one direction but other states wrong in a different direction. That would prove the model, but if every single state was multiple points off all in the same direction, you don’t get to call margin of error. Your bell curve was shifted one direction, it wasn’t a case of the curve being right but the dice rolled in the tail.
Intercepting HTTPS on Android
It's still 18 years to 2038 though. If unix time is my biggest problem in 2038, I'll be very, very happy.
Same question: Ok we may not be able to brute-force it today for less than $1bn, but tomorrow, may a vulnerability in the algorithm make it possible to regenerate the private key?
Not sure it'd be trivial unless the documentation is really good. I have, however, seen TCL used to good effect of GUIfying a CLI, and providing a scriptable interface so that you can access features that don't translate well to the GUI or (for whatever reason) haven't been made directly accessible in the GUI.
I wanted to check if I could build it without any hiccup. It was simple enough. All you need to do it navigate to the example folder and use 'gradle run', assuming you have java and gradle installed on your system.
Your description here is often the same argument for microservices over a justification for any specific language.
The number one threat to election integrity is change, begetting chaos.

We must lock down the rules during an election cycle. To only be changed under extreme circumstances. With those parameters also spelled out.

We must also slow roll changes to election administration. Any change whatsoever is disruptive and will disenfranchise at least as much as its intended to help.

There are many, many needed changes. And I'm only cautioning about administration, gear, procedures. I still advocate ambitious, aspirational democratic reforms, voting rights, etc.

Source: Decade working as poll worker, election integrity activist, lobbying. Started as a Black Box Voting style firebrand, transformed into a Good Government style reformer.
comments like above are reminders of how strong libertarianism is in tech circles, for better or worse
Tool to Convert GIFs to Zoom Compatible MP4's Using WASM Ffmpeg
This is probably more accurate than you know
CLI discoverability is much better when the utility has good support for completion. For example, kubectl, which can output its own completion script for different shells, and can complete things like resource names. I don't know much about how shell completion actually works, but I do appreciate it greatly.
Car makers for the most part don't build their own cell factories. They do invest in battery pack factories.

However, there are major supply contracts being signed all the time. The major battery producers, Panasonic, CATL, LG, SK, Samsung SDI and even BYD. GM and LG have a major partnership and are building a factory in Ohio. SK is trying to build a factory in the US as well.

At the same time you have many new players coming onto the market. Tesla themselves are the most relevant. There are also major European projects, such as Northvolt (former Tesla guys from Giga Nevada) but also others like GigaVaasa. Northvolt will also build a large factory in Sweden, and a somewhat smaller one in Germany. CATL is building battery factories in Czech Republic and expanding existing factories.

There represent long term off-take agreements between car manufactures and cell providers.

Pretty much all of these have large contracts and are building factories all over the place.

All that said, nobody is as aggressive as Tesla with their targets. In fact, a good argument can be made that everybody else is copying the Tesla Gigafactory as a model. Even calling them Gigafactories and targeting the same sort of output levels.

In terms of car makers Tesla (and BYD) are the ones vertically integrating the battery.
Just to be clear I'm not really advocating for a position here, just stating what I think is going on.

But with that being said, yea I agree with you here in theory. But it's exceedingly difficult for me to not be skeptical about it when I think about it as a power struggle between a Congresswoman and a tech company over who gets to fuck me over.
No, I'm very familiar with it. Questions of whether a law was broken are not questions of justice. They may say things about justice, or lack thereof, in what the law is or how it is interrogated, but they're not one and the same.
This is correct. I strongly recommend registering a random, throwaway domain and running your own mailserver.

Creating an entry in /etc/mail/aliases is just as fast as the interface on the throwaway email sites and you have much more control over the resulting inbound mail.
Oh OK!
"Let merchants charge customers the credit transaction fee as a surcharge [1] [2], and let consumers pay to receive the benefits if they so desire. Everyone else can use debit cards now, and instant payments when they arrive in 2023-2024 [3] [4]. If it's transaction insurance customers demand, let them vote with their dollars (versus mandating everyone pay it as a transaction tax)."

Therefore, if you value the insurance, you still should have access to it, but you should pay for it.

Citations above are in my original comment on the topic: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24899057
That's a laudable idea (and to be fair, doctors do make decisions like this all the time), but the trouble is twofold: 1) placebo effects and 2) expectancy effects.

Humans are really bad at remembering both successes and failures, we tend to only remember the instances where something worked and forget the times it didn't.

Additionally, doctors belief in a treatment will cause them to over-interpret the successes of said treatment, and potentially change their interactions with patients who do and don't get the treatment.

Hence we have clinical trials, where the analysis is done by people not involved in the treatment, and neither patients nor practitioners know who got what treatment.
Nothing so far on https://www.justice.gov/news but a bit of google-fu turned up this link https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.368440...

(via https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/18607888/united-states-... )
Banks are already doing that with openid. See partners of https://yes.com/ (European)
Or again, don't do it in the first place.
> - Uno renders using the underlying platform, uses native controls whenever possible, particularly for input controls. Avalonia focuses on using its controls, not native ones (although support for native controls is WIP I think)

This line remembers a constant pitch i see here on HN, where people ask for native controls to be rendered for multi-platform UI sdk's that i think go on the "faster horse"(Ford) sort of misdirection.

The problem with the 'faster horse' paradox is that the only way to make people forget about wanting a faster horse is by showing them the car.

I think a platform like Flutter get this right, as do HTML/CSS/JS, because theres no way to get really consistent if you have to use the platform native controls. It will also be messy for the developers, requiring a lot of effort and money to make things partially right.

I bet with you that most of these people asking for this use a Mac, and while Apple is more or less half of the market of US, in the rest of the world Apple have much smaller deploy base.

So sometimes, you need to be careful because even HN can suffer from a bubble social effect, that will misguide people that actually listen what they are asking for.

In the long term there's already a multi-platform UI paradigm there is set to win, and its called HTML..

Native UI platforms had a sort of comeback because of the iphone revolution, but in the long term, they will not be the winners, because Apple is doing the same mistakes they did in the eighties.
Ya, I think it's great that Python has become a sorts of universal / unified language these days. When I was a student, people used a bunch of different languages to write software, depending on what group they were in, or what the culture there was.

You had Matlab, R, Octave, Java, C++, Lisp, etc. all depending on what type of scientist or engineers you worked with (Statisticians used R/SPSS/etc., Physicists and Electrical Engineers used Matlab or C++, Computer Scientists used Lisp etc., and the list goes on)

At least today, most is written in Python - only the libraries are different.

Also, sharing code is a breeze today. Back then you'd have to download or manually transfer the codebase from other users, check dependencies, install software, check licensing, and what not.

Today you can fire up a Python notebook, and that's it - very nice for smaller stuff. Even larger applications is a easy as pie.
Isn't this simply talking about personal websites? They haven't gone away, a lot moved to wordpress which gives them a cookie cutter feel, but a lot of other ones are still independent and feel like they're on their own.
But English speakers make games and songs out of this practice.

>> There's a fleck on the speck on the tail
on the frog on the bump on the branch
on the log in the hole in the bottom of the sea.

Which is a proper grammatical sentence. The key to the song is building it up. The song starts with: "There's a hole in the bottom of the sea", and the song builds the sentence up. Indeed: having a grossly complicated sentence is the "Fun" of the song, but that doesn't change the fact that its grammatically correct (and actually understood by the listener / singers).
> Just to get your argument straight: nothing comes close to the level of utility and usability of StandardML, Ocaml and Haskell?

I suspect hajile meant that no type system comes close to the utility of that of StandardML, Ocaml and Haskell, not language in general.
IPv6 might be a nice thing for companys. But at home you don't have a static IP. With IPv6, I get a new address every 24 hours from my provider. The devices always change last part of the address because of privacy. How can you write firewall rules to a such network.
Monumental success – Why copies of lost landmarks are better than ruins
Gotcha.

On a personal note, I used an ISP with CGNAT for a very short while, and it was despicable. It completely, utterly breaks any possibility of peer-to-peer stuff, in million little ways like UPnP being insufficient to make online gaming work as expected. It was just awful.
Thanks. I will try that.
If democrats were ok with guns and republicans ok with abortion we could get a lot more done.
GA-style search isn't actually taking multiple samples to decide on a new point to move to - it's taking multiple samples to decide on a smaller region to focus on. This can be more efficient than backprop, depending on how "easy" it is to tell via sampling which subregion has better performance.

Here's a post on this: http://pchiusano.github.io/2020-10-12/learning-without-a-gra...

Traditional GA has a practical problem for training large models - keeping a large population of model weights in memory is not feasible. Like if you had to keep 1000 variations of the GPT-3 model weights in memory for training that's no good. Though people have ideas for how to solve for that as well (again, see the post I linked).
They only announce a /64 prefix via RA (with no DHCPv6 or DHCPv6-PD), so address assignments are via SLAAC. For that ISP (Wave G), I use NDP proxying to allow the LAN side to utilize those addresses as well.
Sure but then the solution is that you go and pick up the servers and move them somewhere else, instead of suddenly finding yourself with absolutely nothing and no way out.
Serious question for everyone out there that views an individual's ability to say whatever they want on social media as a fundamentally important right: what happens if a lie spreads so virulently online that a large enough contingent of the population decides to stop supporting democracy because the lie has them convinced that democracy isn't worth supporting anymore?
That absolutely could be the issue! Though I never took any myself, I do vaguely recall hearing that 4-aco-dmt (a prodrug for psilocin, just like psilocybin) was more manageable than mushroom consumption. I'd bet that might be due to ease of dosing.
Exactly.

Tesla is a huge benefactor of government credits and programs - not the reason for those programs. Competitors are not jumping in because the market is ready to pay unsubsidized prices for EVs, they're jumping in because the market will pay subsidized prices.

We're only just going to see what the EV landscape looks like in the next few years without the hefty hand of the government tilting the scales.
>Does someone have an ELI5 on what AMD has done since ~2015

Let's just go back to 2014/15. And Look at Intel's Roadmap ( Or Slides ).

2016 - 10nm - CannonLake - First Gen 10nm Process. Industry leading Density.

2017 - 10nm+ - Icelake - New Architecture.

2018 - 10nm++ - TigerLake - Optimisation[1].

2019 - 7nm - Sapphire Rapids [2]

Most people would expect the ETA year to be +1. As 14nm itself was delayed.

TigerLake has around 15%+ IPC. That would put it ahead of Zen 3. The Intel 7nm is roughly between TSMC 5nm and 3nm. Had Intel shipped that in 19/20, along with Sapphire Rapid. AMD wouldn't even lead, they could barely compete.

So to answer your question. It wasn't AMD did some magic. They have been executing, and shipping their product on schedule. ( Although in tech, that in itself is pretty damn impressive ). All while Intel was.... um..... I dont know what they were doing.

10m fiasco has lots of other knock on effect as well. But I guess this is good enough for a ELI5 post :)

[1] This Process - uArch - Optimisation name came in later part. In 2014/15 people were still talking about Tick Tock.

[2] Sapphire Rapid was always a Server Specific design on the roadmap. But things changes bit. Along with Intel's plan of AVX512
And weirdly, it's not even very different to v4. Most parts of v6 work exactly the same as they do in v4. Most other L3 protocols we've used have been far more different than these two are.
Plaid would still have a place, as they could manage connecting applications to every bank in the US (so you don't have to use different client libraries for every single bank, because god knows they won't pick a common setup).

I'm really surprised they haven't gotten BofA to give them access to their consumer accounts API, considering Plaid can't deal with BofA's SMS 2FA. It's the largest bank in the US and Plaid can't handle it, which shows how fragile the whole scraping thing really is.
Pedos gonna pedo.
"Can someone explain why a throw-away email service such as Guerrilla Mail has to go offline as a result of law enforcement?"

It doesn't. Guerrilla Mail could very easily (and relatively cheaply) house their own infrastructure (a single 1U server ?) in their own rack and self provide their hosting.

The takedown notices would go to them. Subpoenas would go to them. They would be served and have great leeway in deciding how to respond and what information to share.

Further, placing the entire operation inside a corporate entity would insulate the owners and allow them to slow down the entire legal/notice/response process.

You do not have to rely on intermediary providers to publish your website.
I'm in a similar situation, although with only 1 kid yet. I think you're spot on that building a working prototype in your free time will be either slow or exhausting.

But most of this start-up advice seems to be geared at single college students, and they'll have enough free time to pull it off.
It's really all about making principled choices when it comes to how much jankiness you can tolerate for a short term velocity boost.

Doing awful things to rapidly try out an idea and see if it warrants further investment is good, as long as you kill the ugly as soon as you understand that your POC is good and you are going to invest further or you know it's not a wise place to invest further.

But there are definitely places where you know you're going to need sanity no matter what. This is anything you know you're going to do a lot, especially under a time crunch. For SaaS work, deployment is one example. In these cases, it's worth investing in building a low friction solution that meets your needs.
There's some odd stuff:

<<<

PDEP/PEXT Parallel Bits
Deposit/Extreact 300 cycle latency
250 per clock 3 cycle latency
1 per clock

It’s worth highlighting those last two commands. Software that helps the prefetchers, due to how AMD has arranged the branch predictors, can now process three prefetch commands per cycle. The other element is the introduction of a hardware accelerator with parallel bits: latency is reduced 99% and throughput is up 250x.

>>>

It talks about pdep/pext and links them to prefetchers - what? Weirder yet "is the introduction of a hardware accelerator with parallel bits" all that's happened, and backed up by earlier info in the article, is that these were trapped+emulated before, hence their hideous cost, and now they're in hardware[0]. It comes across as if someone didn't understand that.

[0] calling it a 'hardware accelerator' is just peculiar.
Maybe a CEO "should" because it's good for them and their company, but a healthy market regulator "should not" allow those type of transactions, in general, for the good of market participants.
Facebook, Twitter take steps to limit the president’s false election claims
Well there's no big wave so in that sense, they did cancel each other out, hence as you say ending up with "a narrow win". The whole point of a wave is that it's a decisive win, which it wasn't.
/me looks at my stack of 18 year old computers I want to run linux on.
True, but some people may need to calculate date/times beyond 2038, there probably are other methods of doing that, but if you use time_t it would not be supported.
If there is ever such a vulnerability in bitcoin that allows you to either

- Generate private keys at a rate in which you will be able to produce it in a reasonable time

or

- Outright reverse engineer the private key from the public key or other metadata

Then Bitcoin is broken and that 1bn is worth next to nothing.
> I would choose the Volvo over any newage design with huge waste of space for transport - they are meant to be a TRANSPORT vehicles not a design for driving to a shopping mall picking chicks (that dont care about transport vehicle anyway).

I would choose whichever makes sense for my business. Without pricing and reliability numbers, it's impossible to know which that might be.

The closest vehicle in Tesla's garage to this is the Tesla Cybertruck which looks bizarre, but is about $20,000 less than the nearest announced competitor. If Tesla launched a butt ugly Cybervan which was similarly functional and cost effective, you can bet it would be popular with the class of buyer who are shopping for e-Vans.

Right now I'm eyeballing the Cybertruck personally, in spite of it's appearance. Spending $20k to get a more traditional looking truck just doesn't make sense to me. The only concern I have is whether those high truck bed walls will screw things up.
You're right - The few times I've used Inkscape to do something simple has always resulted in remoting into my PC to use Illustrator.
https://serverless.page/

The call to action at the top is "give me your email." I almost took it for a "coming soon" page because of it and did not scroll down to see that the service appears to be live.

If the call to action was "buy" you would get the email anyway. And money. And attention.

Good luck.
Location: San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Remote: Yes

Willing to relocate: No

Technologies:
- Ruby
- Ruby on Rails
- JavaScript
- React
- Redux
- CSS
- HTML
- MySQL
- PostgreSQL

Résumé/CV: https://www.linkedin.com/in/iona-brabender/

Portfolio Website: https://ionabrabender.com/

Email: ionabrabender@gmail.com

Hello! I'm a full-stack software engineer who is passionate about coding and enthusiastic about developing new skills. I have a varied and international background and I'm looking for a dynamic organization where I have the chance to learn.
https://github.com/MaggieAppleton/digital-gardeners
It's mentioned in the linked thing - if you think someone's abusing the site, email the mods.
"IPv6 uses NPT, where you can transform one prefix into another prefix."

What? No, NPT is a nonstandard experimental hack that's in no way part of IPv6 or supported by any standards track IETF protocols.

"IPv6 was a draft in 1997(!), and became a real Internet Standard in 2017"

The draft part of the claim is false, the basic IPv6 RFCs came out of draft and were published as standards track RFCs in 1995 eg https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc1883 / https://tools.ietf.org/html/rfc1884 and then subsequent revisions in 1998 and 2017.
Nice to know if you can afford to stand still while your case works its way through the courts for years. Most companies can’t.
“Please Update .NET to the latest version to access this website.”
Yes it's standard, or at least it was. The FTC has been rubber stamping acquisitions for almost 20 years.
Not really inclined to trust this rag as a reliable source of information. The Hunter Biden laptop nonsense made it pretty clear where their agenda is rooted.
It wasn't just a concept - Tesla actually commercialized battery swapping because by doing so you got some California subsidy. Tesla drivers who applied could do a battery swap in 7 minutes at their one swap station. It was discontinued when the subsidy requirement ended.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-shuts-down-battery-swap-prog...

https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-tesla-batter...
One specialized application is inland shipping. https://zeroemissionservices.nl/en/home-english/:

“ZES (Zero Emission Services) supplies interchangeable energy containers for new and existing inland vessels. These containers – called ZESPacks – are charged using renewable power.”
> The past month I have used Python again after a few years and I have to say I didn't quite like the experience as much as before.

Python is really a Perl replacement. It was meant for the scripting world, not software development - pretty much stuff that was too complex or cumbersome to do in bash.
I guess I was fortunate to never get sucked into mobile like I did computers. For me, the phone's always been utilitarian. I use it to take pictures, text friends, make calls, and occasionally check email or search the web when a computer isn't handy. And I use it for navigation/mapping when I'm travelling, and on the rare occasions I drive, I listen to Spotify.

For comparison, in the past week, I'm just over 7 hours of use, with 5:45 in Messenger, and most of the rest split between mail and the camera. I suspect messenger is only so high because I leave it running and unlocked during conversations. Every notification (18 per day, 126 total) was a text message or a phone call.