skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> until someone makes a model that proves it can do a few elections in a row (not retroactively) who will really care about the model?

Agreed, but 538 has a history of providing pretty accurate predictions since 2008: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-work/

I don't think Taleb or other's have put predictions on paper for nearly as long.

For this year's model Nate Silver has been doing a post-mortem on complaints similar to yours on Twitter:

> We have years and years of well-calibrated forecasts. (If anything, underdogs have won a bit less than they're supposed to, although not to a degree that's statistically significant.) We know what we're doing with these probabilities.

> So I'm admittedly kind of prickly about criticism after elections that both our model and our broader reporting handled quite robustly, which only happened because we put so much work into them. Especially given that the topline outcome + 48/50 states were "called" correctly.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325859479641092096

> The reason Biden's win probability was ~90% is precisely because he could withstand a fairly large polling error when Clinton couldn't, which is exactly what happened. Indeed, our model assumes polls are fairly error-prone.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325858783923417088

> One slightly unrelated point, but the fact that Biden could lose any 2 states from among the GA/WI/AZ/PA group and still win the election makes his win a bit more robust (and a bit less "close") than if he had to sweep those exact states.

> Especially given that those states are in different parts of the country (South/Midwest/West/Northeast). We've seen in the past few elections largely regionally-driven polling errors. Polls badly underestimated Trump in WI, but only modestly in AZ and PA and not at all in GA.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325867716096512000

> This [polling error] averages out to Trump +3.3. Probably pretty similar in national polls, where we'll most likely wind up with an error in the 3.5- or 4-point range I think.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325918376569528321

> One of the questions I'm more intrigued by is whether polls missed Trump support among lower-propensity Hispanic (and perhaps also Black) voters. These voters can be hard to get on the phone and/or may be screened out by likely voter models.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325449731737329664

It seems like less a case of "shy" voters (which you would expect to see in all states - or at least all blue-leaning states) and perhaps more an instance of pollsters missing sizeable minority voting blocks in certain states, which would influence some state polling more than others.
I'm typically an iPhone user, but I, too, bought the 4a. I got it originally for a backup as well as just to have an Android phone again. It is now my daily driver. It's enough phone for me even if it doesn't have the iPhone's blistering speeds. I am pretty sure I won't be spending much more than $350 on a phone going forward. I just don't need anything more.
fakeyogis:

> what you did in previous incarnation you are enjoying now so if you cant see what you did in your last incarnation you cant say its just a matter of concentration cause you cant really know for sure.
geopolitical. if russia/china has us military bases, you should have already received their vaccines.
I use unique emails for everything so when I started getting spam to my amazon email, I knew it was leaked via amazon. The spam however was requests for reviews in exchange for compensation.

I reported this to Amazon and their response was basically to threaten me if I participated.
Yes, that is exactly what it is. Actually what you mentioned happens on forums like Reddit all the time. Getting a top comment in a thread is very valuable, and later on you can edit it to say anything. With internet groupthink being what it is, people will open a discussion, see the top few most-upvoted comments and assume they are true and those are the views they should take on the topic.
I live 30 minutes from any major store that may or may not have what I want - so I'd have to visit several stores. Waste of time and gas. I can go online and get more selection and have it in 2 or 3 days.
TBH - I suspect that there probably are laws that cover this in some jurisdictions, which is probably why they're maintaining the service for two years...

If you've bought a new device and it stops working after two years, is it a bit crappy? Yeah, of course it is. Is it legally actionable? Probably not. (IANAL obvs).
That 'just' is where the valid concern lies. Nine women cannot make a baby in one month, and one important reason vaccine trials take the time that they do is to observe for side effects within the test population. You can't give ten people a shot, watch them for a month, and draw conclusions on the effects that will show up in an individual in ten months time.

There is no shortcut for that, and there is an obviously huge pressure to cut corners.

It's fair to be concerned, not anti-Vax.
The article acknowledges this: "Exit polls also found that Black and Latino men in particular inched toward Trump in 2020, but these surveys are unreliable." Its argument is based on comparing results across counties with different demographics.
Read the fact check. The too far away claim was decided days ago, and people were allowed to be within 6'. There were also live webcams setup. This has literally been one of the most transparent elections in history.

Read through the lawsuits [1]. Most have already been rejected due to no proof. The others outstanding have to do with so few votes it doesn't matter or they actually go against Trump's interests, like stopping the count when he's behind. This is all theater at this point. Maybe they can have a few more press conferences at the garden center next to the sex shop.

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-campaign-lawsuits-elec...
Alexander Hamilton, Enslaver? New Research Says Yes
More anecdata: Roughly 30% of the technical products I've ordered in the past year have arrived with one of these cards. As with Colin (the author of the tweet), I'm also in Canada. It makes me wonder if the practice is more prevalent here?

Speculation: Maybe Amazon's efforts to combat this (if any) are not as strong in Canada?
We tried this out for a few social events. It worked pretty well, but the choppy world movement makes me a little sick. :( Any chance of a smooth camera/movement option?
Anyone who feels entitled to this or that is going to be very, very disappointed. And no, that isn't fixable.
I haven’t ordered anything from Amazon in almost a year. It turns out you can live without it.
If their was a 4a XL it would be the perfect phone for me. Instead, I haven't been able to find a phone that meets all my criteria:

• unlockable bootloader, rootable
• headphone jack
• > 6.2" screen
Believing that a person has a right to defend themselves is wholly unrelated to support of the death penalty. I don't support the death penalty either. But if you break into my house and try to kill me, I'm going to try to kill you first. Firearms are the great equalizer. Removing them just puts women in the position of being submissive and/or victimized by larger, stronger men.
> Aren't you contradicting yourself here?

I don't think it's a contradiction. I think what's being said is that it's the wrong default, i.e. the special different-looking operators should be the ones with UB, not the obvious "normal"-looking ones.
To create a sponge, just add acetic acid
What I do, is ask for a receipt before I donate. Then it becomes a business cost to me.
It is quite staggering how Discord don't have a business plan yet.

Makes me think there must be something up with their security, I can't think of any other reason why they wouldn't give private paid plans for businesses.

There are a LOT of people who would jump over from slack.
I would say one in three of the burgers I consume is plant- based, I do it to reduce meat consumption. If I find myself at BK, for instance, I always get the impossible whopper. Same at home--1 lb beyond beef for every 2 lb ground beef. Eventually the veggie stuff will get even better (and cheaper), and the ratio will flip.
https://go-review.googlesource.com/c/go/+/236857/

https://golang.org/ (still has the BLM banner)
How Might Election Fraud Get Litigated?
There is a good chance the manufacturer or other suppliers are using Amazon fulfillment
It's possible.

And mine was a joke about trying to browse the web with javascript turned off.
Let's Encrypt will stop signing new SSL certificates with DST Root X1
Do you have any documentation that a back door has been found? I'm aware Ted Ts'o and others were worried of the possibility of backdoors in RDRAND, but I wasn't aware of any being confirmed. Also, the Wikipedia article for RDRAND really needs to be updated if a back door has been confirmed.
Is that literally 1.5C colder than dry ice?

If that temperature could be obtained with dry ice, that would simplify things a bit. But AFAICT dry ice sublimates at -78.5C.
If you want real food so that you live in balance with nature and avoid Western obesity, you don't want fast food.

I don't want fast news, either. I want to understand the world around me, and for that, long-form podcasting is the way to go.
Hey y'all, member of the engineering team here: I actually have become extremely close friends with a lot of our team members here at Gather, even though we haven't met in person — something about dropping by my coworkers' desks really makes it feel like we're together. But yeah, you really do miss out on grabbing a beer, or, for instance, knowing how tall your teammates are haha
Almost a Pyrrhic victory by the sound of things!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrrhic_victory
> are making "real" vegan cheese

But are they actually making it? The site looks quite aspirational.
The constitution hasn't stopped them in the past from man-in-the-middling private corporation's network traffic to spy on private citizens.

I don't think "community broadband" is the same as "federal broadband", if that's what you're asking.
I've had a few Big Macs lately, and from my perspective the meat is perhaps the least consequential part of that sandwich, both flavor and texture-wise. At one point I asked for 4x extra cheese (gross, I know) and after the first few bites, that too seemed to be pushed aside in the palate by the sauce. I can almost guarantee you I would not notice a difference if they swapped the beef for beyond meat.
I have used gather.town briefly while attending a symposium. While some of the mechanics are complicated and take time getting used to, it was definitely an interesting experience and unique experience for attending posters in a symposium. However, I am not so sure if it provides much extra benefit than a traditional conference website with posters and social events hosted on Zoom (ex: ICML2020 was nicely set up).

Facebook is hosting a networking event for PyTorch Developer Day through gather.town so I am interested to see how that goes. Maybe I will see if gather.town is indeed significantly better for a social event vs. attending posters.
I think the biggest thing that helped save HealthCare.gov is having a blank check from the government.

As of 2014, the site cost $2.1B to create and operate:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-09-24/obamacare...
This is how we framed it at browserless.io. Libraries generally aren't a product, and even though some of them do a lot, it's hard to charge folks for an `npm i`-style product. I tried a lot to look into this and it just didn't pan out. I think there's an opportunity for a library marketplace that does all of the curation, security checks, and other validation as it would provide a lot of value to organizations so they don't have to build all this themselves. Seems like all of this already exists, just not in a concise package.

On that, I feel like docker could provide a much much better storefront, and charge folks for their packages, but just hasn't. Did you even know they had a store? That's what their hub is supposed to be, but they don't charge for anything! How great would it be if they built out a marketplace?! This has even more potential, IMO, since images are generally a whole service and not just a library.

The opportunity and value definitely are there, and the need is there, it's just not something that anyone has tackled in a way that makes sense with software.
Seems like US issues about 10k visa's yearly[1].

[1] https://www.eb5daily.com/2020/02/latest-statistics-eb-5-immi...
> "Eric Schmidt can [...] ignore the fact that he owned a social network (Youtube) that knowingly hosted radical content and disinformation which would have (in part) caused the civil unrest he’s fleeing from."

Conspiracy is maybe the wrong word, but OP seems to genuinely believe that Schmidt caused the recent civil unrest through his Youtube ownership.
Hey! I'm from Hasura.

Would love to hear what's been missing / painful and factor that into the roadmap.
Analogies about proximity are beguiling but misleading. They’re all hat and no cattle. Streamlining the ticket office won't make your trains run on time, and you can’t just put more lipstick on a dead pig, since ultimately it lets the tail wag the dog.

Which is to say, a great user experience comes from the heart, not the skin, of your product.
One of my Ph 1b (freshman special relativity and electrostatics) quizzes guided you through "discovering" a new method of solving that type of problem. I don't remember the specific details, but it's one of the rare tests I've taken that I actually enjoyed!

Although most homeworks and exams aren't nearly that cool IME, they're virtually all about synthesis and fundamental understanding rather than rote memorization. This "first principles" approach to most everything is one of my favorite things about Caltech.
A big benefit, especially with more people, is that it's relatively painless and socially natural to break out into multiple small discussions (as might happen at say, a coffee meeting irl). The awkwardness of 12-person video calls is extremely painful in other software.
I know a successful CEO who started a business making business software. He gives it away for free. But he also sells support contracts for it. He says 90% of the users just take the free version. The rest buy support contracts.

Enough to have made him a wealthy man.

The business model is essentially give away the razors, sell the blades.

The only unhappy people are the ones who use the product but expect free support :-)
The Google/Nexus/Pixel series phones never seem to be perfect. I just don't think Google has the hardware DNA.

On the other hand, pretty much every Samsung and Apple phone I've owned has been perfect hardware-wise.
What about the processing in the veggie salami/bologna turns you off? Their meat counterparts are also heavily processed and are known to be carcinogenic.
We looked at that, but with a large Rails app that already wraps the db in a ton of business logic, we needed to wrap the Rails app in GraphQL, not the db. To start with some other server would mean either recreating that business logic, or creating yet another API to wrap the Rails app. So we went with graphql-ruby and it's doing what we hoped.
Also, enabling overproduction.

Farmers get it coming and going. If it is a "bad" year, and the crops fail, you don't get money and might not be able to afford to keep going next year. If it is a "good" year and a "good" year for everyone else, it becomes a "bad" year again -- overproduction means that your prices drop and you might not be able to afford to keep going next year.

But while both situations are equally bad for the farmer, it's really bad for civilization if you don't produce enough food -- in fact, you want to ensure that even in multi-sigma off-years, with flooding everywhere that floods and drought everywhere else, you still produce enough food to feed everyone.

That means that you have to build in a lot of overproduction -- every year should be a "bad" year for the farmers.

(As an aside, you'll never see more concealed glee than a couple of farmers in one state talking about a flood in another state that produces a similar slate of crops, knowing that's going to bump crop prices by 20-30% while also not wanting to be happy about others' misfortune.)
Nope. There's an Open Source driver that works perfectly with CUPS, and a set of Open Source tools that give you things like ink level.
There is a small-cap Crypto project that is coming out of Japan. Dev Protocol.

https://devprtcl.com/

Making open activities sustainable with staking

They allow people to stake the Dev Protocol token and split the rewards with the Open Source project. They are already integrated with GitHub.

This doesn't answer immediate concerns, but supporting Open Source is their entire angle.
There were already some positive preliminary results from the five vaccines being tested in Brazil, so "don't work at all" was already ruled out, I think. Obviously the press release from Pfizer isn't going to mention the other vaccines, but a diligent journalist might look up the details and do some kind of comparison. Perhaps the diligent journalists need a bit more time to write their articles. Perhaps we should wait a day or two and consult a better source than the BBC.
It sounds like you go through a lot of phones. Any particular reason for that? Do you just like to upgrade to the latest, or is it due to the dissatisfaction you're referring to?
> the Pixel 5 offers little over the Pixel 4a

The subtitle captures how out of touch I am with regular phone users. I'll be upgrading from a Pixel 2, and had a Nexus 7 before that. My purchase cadence seems different than what I perceive to be typical for iPhone users in particular.

For me, mmWave seems like a nice to have future-proofing feature.

And this reads like a sales pitch crafted specifically for me:

There's no squeeze to activate the Google Assistant, no "Project Soli" hand-waving air gestures, and no Face ID style facial recognition. The only thing you get for biometrics is the tried-and-true rear capacitive fingerprint reader, which works great. There's no headphone jack and no microSD slot, but there are two features you might not normally find in the midrange market: wireless charging and IP68-rated dust and water resistance.

...strangely negative review for a product that seems like a step in the right direction in a number of areas.
I wonder whether it would be possible to have a licensing scheme that was compatible with a package manager config to help solve these problems.

# new environment with explicit config
pyenv virtualenv myEnv —-licensing=personal
pip install some-free-package
# Success

vs

# new environment defaults to restrictive
pyenv virtualenv myEnv
pip install some-free-package
# failure
ERROR: PACKAGE LICENSE INCOMPATIBLE WITH PIP CONFIG

It would be just as much on the honor system as things are today, but I think people are generally honest. If a package I want isn’t compatible with my license config at work, I think I’m more likely to find a different package or try to get a license than I am to change my package manager confit away from the team sanctioned settings, potentially opening my employer to what I now explicitly know to be legal risk.

I’m thinking about the packages I usually use and I don’t know their licenses. Pandas? Pytorch? I assume I can use them at work because everyone else does. If my package manager told me otherwise, I don’t have to be proactive.
One of the problems with large companies using these free libraries and tools is that the people who are choosing to use these free resources are just developers themselves -- they usually have little power to allocate the much deserved resources to the shoulders that they're standing on.

Because of this, there is a huge untapped opportunity to allocate resources better to pay open source contributors for their hard work.

It would be useful if there was a github (or whatever) license type that required payment above a certain threshold. A student might get free use, but a commercial endeavor might pay a little or a lot depending on the value they're getting.

Then, any libraries that you use with that license type would draw on the monthly deposit for your license level (more of your budget would go toward the libraries that you get more value from). For example, if your company pays $100/month, 50% of that may go to one library that provides a lot of value, while 1% might go to a library that provides less. Proper allocation would require the user to guage this, and it might be a little unfair but it's more fair than the 0% they're getting now.

Any resource you're using would have to get at least 1% of your allocation. If you're only using two libraries and you don't allocate value manually, each library would automatically get 50% of your monthly budget.

Repos could also choose to allocate a percentage of their draw to go toward bounties to resolve bugs, make improvements, etc. To help pay and incentivize others to contribute.

Is there anything like this out there?
"Do things that dont scale" - that's good advice because it will make it harder for the big bullies to eat your lunch. But what can't scale today, might scale tomorrow as technology catch up, so if you are lucky you will have a profitable business and domain expertise and be ready to grab the opportunity if/when it arrives.
Right, so like I said - nothing to do with democracy.
What startup is it? Want to know so I can avoid it.
I'm not making comments about bevy. I'm talking about game engines in general.

> Not to mention that you evidently don't _have to_ do this, seeing as how in Unity you're basically forced to work with raw sockets.

I don't know how old you are, but by the time 1999 rolled around, id Software had produced essentially the same multiplayer client-side prediction model that has been in major use to this day. It hasn't fundamentally changed.

The fact that Unity cannot reproduce 20+ year old tech is a joke, not an example. In fact, UNET was such a joke it basically tried to ignore this fundamentally unchangeable architecture and they ended up canning it in the end.[1]

[1]: https://blogs.unity3d.com/2019/06/13/navigating-unitys-multi...
Covid isn't a particularly pleasant way to die though...
I kind of wish handheld inkjets were more of a thing so we could have them at mailstops/drops, scan a QR code or something and then ink that onto the package directly.
True, I just noted that because if you're starting from true zero with no obvious preference for a particular language/framework, you have the opportunity to pick something that can reach a higher top end of performance before it requires fiddling.
I was open about the fact that I don't know them - but you can tell a lot about them from their comment.
Not the above comment but I find the story a bit suspect. I have many friends in the competitive powerlifting world and while many have nagging injuries, almost none of them came directly from deadlifting. That's my experience as well, I have pulled over 600 at 181 and never came close to an injury from the lift but I can't say the same for squat (knee, hip, and shoulder pain) and bench (wrist and lower back pain).
Trump Fundraising for Legal Challenges Would Also Pay Down Debt
> The way the program works is that once a foreigner lays down between $2 million and $3 million worth of investment in Cyprus, typically through a real estate purchase, they can apply to what is technically called the “Citizenship by Investment” program. After the government reviews the applicant’s background, conducts a security check, and hosts a visit from the foreigner, their application can be approved.

For anyone wanting to know how much it could cost.
Car-Tank Transformer Was the Future of War Machines in 1926
GM to hire 3k jobs in move to speed up electric vehicle production