skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
The premise of this analysis appears to be that mail-in ballots are a uniform sampling of Democrats and Republicans. But of course, in 2020, that's not at all the case; the Republicans made a campaign issue out of not voting absentee, and of attempting legally to reject absentee ballots under a number of conditions. As a result: mail-in ballots are sharply more Democratic than Republican this year.

Further, any analysis that compares returns over time and holds Florida up as the model state to match against needs to account for the fact that Florida was able to begin counting ballots early, because they passed state laws to do so†. PA and WI were legally prevented from counting ballots until election day. The returns over time are going to be much different in FL than in PA.

Here's another data point: you're about to see Biden's lead in New York open up and drive his popular vote victory even higher, because NY, which is a shitshow, is only now getting started counting all the mail-in votes. Obviously, the Democratic Party didn't launch a giant vote fraud operation in New York State, which they would have won even with a dead candidate.

† Every state should be like Florida, in this regard.
There's supposedly a jailbreak method for it that removes the FB login requirement, but it doesn't seem to be public yet.
Hardware museum: over 20 years of PC history
I'm aware of that fact.

I'm hopeful the popular vote interstate compact[0] will get adopted by enough states to make it so each person's vote counts equally.

What you suggested above is a way to weight citizen's vote's even less equally than they do now, which is what I was responding to. The situation we have now is bad too, imo, but better than each state having an equal vote, irrespective of population.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Intersta...
D.C. gets presidential votes I thought?
One thing these kinds of documents never seem to incorporate, is something along the lines of "how do we stop 'legally allowed' groups from one jurisdiction, from accessing politicians communications in another?".

For example, if backdoor(s) are added to all EU E2E encryption through this... then the NSA and other non-EU groups will be listening in on EU leadership's (eg Angela Merkel) private communications 24/7.

That's not a scenario the EU leadership seems like it would be ok with.
edit: OP expanded their post and my comment below is now inconsequential and even misleading.

While I do not find the analysis particularly strong, it does not have the premise you describe. It only has the premise that the mail-in ballots are randomly shuffled before their counting starts (which is also not a reliable claim).
If you claim that time is a side channel then the information _sent_ is really 0 bits. You cannot change the message.
> The top four states have roughly a third of the national population; if federal policy were enacted purely by population, why shouldn't they allocate all federal funds to themselves and deprive other states entirely? The Senate and the electoral college give enough of an advantage to small states that, even though no one or two small states are liable to flip an election by themselves, they are still able to have a voice in federal policy by coalition-building.

I think this explains my point very well. Thanks
The argument is that enforcing App Store Review Guidelines inside a scripting engine is technically very difficult and usually not an issue provided the characteristics we mentioned exist regarding user intent. The other argument is that our scripting environment is substantially identical to all other environments inasmuch as review decisions made against us would apply to them, which leads to semi-absurd rejections.
Likely option 1. In my experience, App Review will not entertain any sort of "preliminary approval" but you could theoretically submit a less polished version of the app to test the waters.
No, the premise is that mailin ballots should have a roughly uniform D/R ratio, no matter what timeslice of a state you look at. Of course they skew, but the idea is that the first mailins counted should have basically the same ratio as the last. Which appears true in most states, but not some, for unknown reasons.

(The skew it proposes as normal, R later in time due to receiving R ballots on a later distribution, exposes an assumption it makes: that counting is in order of ballots received.)
The EU takes a statist approach to privacy. Encryption is always a better protection to privacy than ever changing laws. EP members are either inexperienced when it comes to technology or serve a party or a lobby agenda. The only countries opposing for the sake of opposing are Hungary and Poland and their leaders would love encyption being backdoored as long as their secret services can pry at comms.

Educate the Comissioners? The president of the Comission is an ex home secretary ie. a lady with a policing mindset just like Theresa May, only allegedly corrupt. Somehow her phones were wiped clean when required as evidence in a recent investigation. The irony of this legislation is that it could expose her own doings.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/ursula-...

The Comissioners were told to use Signal after Bezos' phone got trojaned through WhatsApp. Encryption is only good when it's for their own benefit.
I could be misreading it, but I don't think I am; for instance, the bit in the middle, about how the batches should be getting more Republican as time goes on and returns come in from rural counties (also: not how it works).
They may still be approved but I believe recent changes to the rules have made this behavior against the rules.
Bundles in the jungle: How e-commerce works in the Amazon rainforest
Stop Checking for Null Pointers
As best I understand it, it's still working at the app level, making the screenshot you grab an empty image
They're not all counted at once. You watched the returns come in drop-by-drop in PA, and each was attributed to counties and precincts. You are not going to see a uniform D/R ratio between a drop from Carbon County and a drop from Allegheny County.

This is so basic --- you had to have not watched the PA returns come in at all to not know it --- that I read this twice, figuring that I had to have misunderstood what the thread was saying. But I don't think I am; I think this person believes that the mail-in process randomizes the ballots statewide.
> I think this is exactly what the average user would expect

Why would people expect that they can't get their location without telling Apple? On Google Android devices, there is a separate toggle to turn the ability to request your location on and off device-wide in the quick settings toggle that is separate from the ability to turn Google Location Services on and off, which you have to open the full device settings app to toggle after initial setup.
Large solar storms. When they happen, they cause the Auroras to appear at lower latitudes than typical. They happen so rarely in a persons lifetime, that people are very unlikely to see one more than once, if at all.
This is the shortest common supersequence problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shortest_common_supersequence_...). It's NP-hard if you include repeating numbers; there's no simple changes to make your solution work in that case.
And even if you accept that some shuffling occurs in the mail system, it's not nearly enough to homogenize the entire mail-in ballot intake.

Certain sorting centers (i.e. the first 3 digits of a collection of ZIP codes) are still going to have drastically different demographics than others. So as trays of mail arrive, and are stacked up in the tabulation centers, they're likely to stay clumped together.

It is completely unsurprising that a very large batch of mail-in ballots, arriving in one transport, are going to show a high ratio of D/R votes compared to other batches of mail-in votes. Knowing where the voters in each batch live will explain the differences.
even if needing an account were acceptable, shutting down the account or preventing a device owner from using their device at all should be considered a warranty issue.
I think the difference is that ID.3 platform plans feel much more concrete than other manufacturers half hearted attempts, but I could be wrong, we will see next year.
This is a half-truth. The Oculus 2 clearly states that it requires a FB account. It's printed in big words right on the box. Previous headsets will not require an account for awhile still. Though it is crappy they will eventually be required to have an account, the tech will be fairly obsolete by then anyway. Most modern consumer tech products do not exist separate from the company and are not "Buy it for life." There are other products from other companies for enthusiasts.
Apple has multiple regional data centers, if they’re all wiped out it probably means the collapse of civilization anyway. So another implausible scenario.

Just saying “you don’t control your device” doesn’t make it true, and regardless: the limitations have been a known quantity for a long time, and most people are fine with them. Apple’s secure, locked-down device experience is so popular that we’re complaining about their monopoly.
It seems disingenuous to give a legitimate reason for an anomaly but then follow it with a claim that it’s fraud:

> By 4am the D to R ratio was all thrown out of whack. That is because these ballots were not sampled from the real Wisconsin voter population, and they were not randomized in the mail sorting system with the other ballots. They inherently have a different D to R signature... than the rest of the ballots quite possibly bc additional ballots were added to the batch, either through backdating or ballot manufacturing or software tampering.

Do we know that mail in ballots are randomly shuffled in the mail? I know some states specifically pull aside ballots cast after certain dates, which could easily explain the differences in the graphs.
Amazing how Facebook is killing the most capable VR hardware on the market. After reading things like this, who would want to gamble on an Oculus headset?
When all your friends are locked in on iMessage, you can't just not buy an iPhone. Apple is using lock-in so that you can't simply move to Android.
That relies on the device being so insecure that it has a rootable vulnerability, which is even worse.
Poetry in Allen Ginsberg's Photography (2010)
> permanently separate immigrant children from their parents

"Permanently" is a new one on me, even Trump-haters don't go that far. This whole thing is about a temporary measure while confirming that the adults with the children really are their parents, and not some random person smuggling children across the border.

The system is backlogged so it's definitely taking much longer than it should, but not permanently unless it's found the adult and child aren't related.
Ask HN: Why Does Wolfram Alpha Think Kamala Harris Is the President Elect?
There's a meme going around where people ask Siri the age of the President and it replies with Kamala Harris's age.

It looks like this is because Wolfram Alpha seems to think that Kamala Harris is the President Elect: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=usa+president+elect

I've known of Wolfram for years and been interested in it, but haven't really used it. Makes me curious what is behind the scenes that could make Wolfram think this. I first imagined something like where people poison Google results by posting a lot of things that cause specific searches to turn up certain people.

Searching for who is the President got the result of "Joe Biden" but with the modifier "in 2 months and 12 days". If I directly ask Wolfram Alpha how old the president is it says that it is reporting Harris' age, and also says she is an attorney.

Really curious, and kinda funny.
Generally they relied on profiles that restricted access to certain applications and added VPNs to sinkhole traffic to undesirable domains.
Yeah, that one particular tweet becomes contradictory with the larger point they are making, but at face value [1] the larger point is that "each new batch of mail-in votes being reported as counted should have the same D/R ratio because they were shuffled before the counting started". It does not make a claim about what that ratio should be.

[1]: Given the flimsiness of the arguments, taking it at face value might be giving it too much credit. My opinion is that this is nonsense.

edit: your sibling comment about mail-in counts in PA also being explicitly not shuffled, but by county throws another wrench in their argument.
Glad to see works from Indian AI researchers featured in Hackernews. There is an excellent AI community in India.

Unfortunately their works are overshadowed by some of the Ivy Leagues and Silicon Valley companies because they do not have that sort of publicity machine or brand name. Even within research comm unity their works dont get cited relative to the importance. If the same work comes from an Ivy League Fac or Company they get cited much more.
I've mentioned here before I got rid of my Facebook account for my mental health. Silly reason or not, it's done, and I have no desire to go back.

I also really like my Oculus. It's helped me escape a bit, and gotten me moving around more. It's a fantastic little device. I'm not looking forward to the day it becomes a paper weight.

The only positive in all of this is I've started upgrading my PC to get it to the point where it can play VR games, and deciding which VR rig I want to go with. It won't be as great as the Oculus, even if the tech is better, since I love the untethered nature of the Oculus, but a cable-tether is worlds better than a Facebook-tether, at least to me.
Note also that Bentley is part of VW.
Complaining about populism and then desiring the popular vote. The fellow admits to not knowing statistics very well either. This analysis can show fraud, but it's not necessarily going to.
There’s actual real evidence on Michigan’s website(s). At the very least registered voters had inaccurate information in the system AND some dead voters attempted to vote.

https://austingwalters.com/the-dead-vote-in-michigan/

I found multiple entries, but on Twitter there were probably 10 or so I tried and they worked. Many were valid voters.

EDIT: downvoted every time -_- Really people, you can view it on their website yourself.
> Again, this should not happen, and it is observed almost nowhere else in the country, because all of the ballots are randomly shuffled...in the mail system and should be homogeneous during counting.

No, they aren't. They aren't shuffled by time mailed (which may have significant D/R differences) and they aren't shuffled across counties of the state in places that have them mailed to the voters county election office and counted in that county with the results then reported to the state, the same as other ballots are.
It seems reductively easy to see that the basic premise is incredibly flawed here: that ballots are uniformly shuffled in all states. Some very basic things that would cause those exact shifts in the data witnessed:

1. Mail vs Drop Box could very easily have a different ratio, which would easily explain a sharp shift if they counted them in different sets for some states when it's a plateau and a hard line jump.

2. Same goes for any sort of discrete shuffled sets - say they are boxed by the week through early voting, or by county early voting, etc. There's literally dozens of explanations for how you can end up with discrete shuffled sets.

3. If mail ballots are counted in roughly the order received, then any gradual shift may represent that one candidate may have early support fade or strengthen over the course of early voting.

4. All of this also ignores that the time series of reporting may not be from the same counties or mix of counties. Change that mix slowly and you also get a gradual shift.

Basically, you need full insight into exactly how ballots are collected (and vary by state) in order to actually have the central hypothesis hold. With no shred evidence of voter fraud at any level and a very clearly biased author, I don't see this holding any merit. While I understand the idea of trying to consider all data, the resounding lack of any evidence should lessen our resources put towards these unlikely theories.
You are right. The author is assuming the premise that all mail in ballots go to some central location, get shuffled together and thus should have a uniform count. The mail in ballots actually go to local precincts which count them and report them at different times. In fact there were times where mail-in ballots and in-person provisional ballots were being dumped at the same time because different precincts were at different stages of processing ballots at a given time.

This analysis makes no sense and shows nothing unusual.
There's some real questions that should be answered, no matter how you lean. The following link was shared to me giving a quick summary of this:

imgur.com/a/gxuVAxc

I mean if everything's fine then somebody should be able to explain why this isn't an issue, right?

And there's also the infamous and mostly censored "4am vertical spikes":

imgur.com/a/TwZqBQ7

I just want an explanation without being censored. These are reasonable questions to have answered, and until they are, I definitely have some doubt in what's being reported.
It actually contains quite a lot of asm, for example this for avx2-capable processors

https://github.com/amd/aocl-libm-ose/tree/master/src/isa/avx...
Sure, but the analysis is supposedly showing even vote-by-mail trending toward R in other states, explained by the hypothesis that mail from more outlying areas tended to arrive later. The observed discontinuities in the contested states could be explained simply by the sequence in which these states processed their mail-in ballots (i.e. ballots mailed from cities were processed later), but the fact that so many of them changed in the middle of the night on election night, while not evidence of anything by itself, is what I referred to as being “a little fishy”.

As a counterexample, Kansas appears to have hit a batch from a metro area shortly before midnight on election night, too.
I can't bring myself to leave a bug alone. So my "debugging saga" continues. I've noticed 3 things.

First, if you use the arrow keys to move around, the cursor lags and even disappears. This is really not useful when trying to reach a position in an editor.

Second, emacs split buffers (C-X 3 splits the buffer into 2 side-by-side windows) has a problem. The screen refresh sometimes trashes the display. It can be recovered with C-L, of course, so the data isn't damaged but it is annoying. The cursor control is even worse in this configuration. Sometimes the cursor leaves the current buffer and ends up somewhere else on the screen so it appears you are typing in a random screen location. C-L recovers this and you see the data in the correct place.

Third, rather than using a keyboard macro I used "galloping fingers". That is I repeatedly hit

1 down left... 2 down left... 3 down left, in overwrite mode to create columns of numbers.

I've been doing this for years (I've been programming for 50 years). At this point my fingers are, like a drummer, highly reliable. I get a rhythm going and rarely fail... except that on WSL some of the keystrokes get lost so I end up with missing numbers or in the wrong column. It happens about every 50 or so numbers. I notice that it seems to happen when emacs autosaves. So somehow the autosave interruption is losing keystrokes.

I find it hard to believe that keystrokes get lost but that appears to be at least one of the problems. It seems also to be related to "injected keystrokes" in a keyboard macro. Cursor control is also badly broken. This might be related since cursor movement is keyboard driven.

I don't have Windows source code so I'm only guessing.
I mean so am I. Obviously I'm talking about the ones that feel denigrated, which is enough to get Trump elected.
I like designers who are also implementers.
I strongly recommend the Index - it is much more pleasant to use, much more technically impressive, and doesn't require you to deal with artificially introduced bullshit like this!
Ask HN: Is there a good list of apps' progress on native Apple Silicon support?
I found the GitHub issue tracking this for Docker (https://github.com/docker/for-mac/issues/4733), and Mozilla's page for the Firefox port (https://bugzilla.mozilla.org/show_bug.cgi?id=1648496), but I'm wondering if anyone has put together a list for the various Mac apps making this transition. I'm also curious about beta build availability, for people who currently have a Developer Transition Kit or early buyers of ARM Macs whenever they ship.
£20M and £18.4M are still reasonably sizeable amounts - and given the pandemic has likely impacted BA & Marriott's profits substantially already, I think some sort of adjustment was likely the fair thing to do.

H&M have been fined £32M. This wasn't hugely far off the 4% annual turnover cap.

Compared to the previous Data Protection Act limits, these fines are definitely significant.
One of the best things about it, if you happen to like having Control on the home row.

My first decade and change of typing was on a Model F, from my father's PC-AT. I still have it, although I use an Ergodox now and might never plug it in again. Great piece of hardware, durable like a tank and excellent key feel.
Cool Machine Learning Books
To repeat myself because I think it's worth being clear about this: we have enough insight to know that the premise of ballots being randomized statewide does not hold, at all. The reason we were all hitting refresh on Wasserman and Cohn's feeds on Twitter was that each Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday batch was attributed to a specific county, and we had expectations about what returns in those counties would look like.
From one of the Reddit comments, there's apparently a Discord organising a class action lawsuit about it:

https://discord.com/invite/th2YPtwt
How would you compare it to a Google form with notifications enabled for new submissions? For Google forms, they are:

- anonymous
- free
- data can be exported (google sheets, excel, csv)
- customizable (text, choices etc.)
Why not two modes - beginner, locked down. Advanced, control it how you like?
There's plenty of extremely high quality class D amps around now that exceed the performance of Class A, e.g. the Benchmark AHB2 ( https://www.audiosciencereview.com/forum/index.php?threads/r... )
You're not wrong, it's a horrible system
I think I saw this blog entry and made one of these starships long before 2013.
Can someone explain how a garden-varity HEPA filter duct-taped to a boxed fan is not a complete solution to airborne COVID droplet air filtration?

This device cleans up a medium size room from forest-fire smoke in 15 minutes and scrubs it squeaky-clean in a few hours (as measured with a laser particulate counter).
It's not at all fishy. You could --- and places like DDHQ did --- scrape the SOS sites to know almost exactly where the ballots were coming in. The central premise of this analysis is not just that the mail-in process was partisan-neutral, but that it had the effect of randomizing the returns statewide. Of course, it did nothing of the sort.

Again, what you really saw here was that the election day vote trended sharply more R, because R voters were encouraged not to use mail-in votes, while the entire D campaign apparatus was --- like it has been since Obama --- designed to get people to commit their votes early with mail-ins. The mail-ins took longer to count, because unlike in Florida, they couldn't be counted early. So what you were watching as time went on was large tranches of mail-in ballots that took forever to count coming in from D-heavy areas (or from areas where Biden outperformed Clinton, and where the mail returns were, like everywhere, more D than the election day returns).
Even, "extremely poor" is generous. It's not so much an analysis as a lay person's take on a data analysis.