skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> If all sorts of things can happen, where you predictions change widely, Taleb’s argument is that you can’t use a number like 90%. You have to include the error, which ends up saying “50%” for both before the election.

Taleb is, simply, wrong.

The difference from 100%/0% is the uncertainty. If new information confirms rather than contradicts prior information, that uncertainty goes down, if it contradicts it, the uncertainty goes up. You expect most of the time the general trend over time to be declining uncertainty, but when there is a period of continuing new information at odds with the prior information, you get a period of increasing uncertainty.

So if you had a very large number of Presidential election cycles with the same model, you'd expect most of them to generally trend toward greater certainty over time, but you'd expect a few of them to have extended periods of declining certainty.

Does Silver's Presidential model work that way? It's hard to tell. One, because there aren't a lot of cycles to look at, and because they aren't the exact same model, is it's not quite what you'd want to look at it to assess that. Well, 2012 and 2020 have had very much the general shape of growing certainty you'd expect, while 2016 didn't.
I can confirm his exercise point. The physically active people I know, including myself and my wife, exercised mostly in gyms before COVID. First, gyms were shut down for months, which pretty much kills the habit of going to the gym (the main reason why people stick with it). Now their policies are so onerous, they're borderline psychotic, so we canceled our gym memberships months ago. On a less anecdotal note, two of our three major local gyms are now in bankruptcy. The one that's not in bankruptcy is largely funded by Microsoft, their employees used to go there, and now even though they don't go, Microsoft still keeps paying.

Both my and my wife's weight went up. I was able to beat it, she wasn't, so she's about 8kg heavier now than she was in February. The only exercise I get now is half an hour of stationary bike a day. I used to seriously lift weights 4-5 days a week, in addition to it.

It's not even a question for anyone not completely brainwashed that lockdowns are very psychologically hard on people.
Peacock live all over LA county too. They are beautiful until they scream at you.
> pomofocus.io

I spent an inordinate amount of time researching pomodoro timers once, as I was looking for one that automatically starts breaks, but waits for a click to start the next pomodoro. This seems to be the most intuitive way (for me) to go about it.

Surprisingly, most timers, including this one, don’t offer that option. One I found which does is https://pomodoro-tracker.com/ .
Specifically rail lines are candidates for electrification, and batteries need only be large enough to cover non-electrified sections and outages. In terms of overall freight movement, more can certainly go over electrified rail. Last mile bulk delivery by road (truck), whether BEV or biodiesel ICE would still represent an overall significantly lower carbon footprint. The FCEV hydrogen lobby mistakenly assumes long-distance trucking is a non-disruptable and necessary part of freight delivery.
If you're a bystander to violence then you are a participant in it.

If you see someone getting attacked and you say you're a pacifist and you won't do anything to stop them then you're actively aiding the attacker and actively hurting the victim.

The fact that you're seeing this as a two sides issue means that you're honestly not actually aware of what injustices others are going through. If you were a victim of the injustices me and many other minorities have experienced you would expect more from others too.

No one says you have to join in on our fight. But if you're staying silent while I'm being killed then you're not going to be seen as a neutral player in this.
- Yeah, I know it wasn't real socialism. You will build the real one.

- The OP says nothing about not allowing Bezos to become billionaire, only confiscating his wealth upon his death. Yeah, I think he would have given up in this case. And I don't only think, I can show it to you repeatedly in socialist countries. There is no "Bezos" there :)
Or we could incentivize people not to live in places with wildfire risk by NOT offering insurance (with some sort of graded phase-out for people already living there).
Hacker group uses Solaris zero-day bought for $3000 to breach corporate networks
The promise of flutter is alive!

https://web.dahliaos.io/#/

This has the power to accelerate flutter desktop development in general. Really excited for both these projects.
Still, if it's possible, could you walk through the thinking, step by step, when you get a chance? Links to relevant results are fine, no need to write an essay.
> The libyear metric doesn't count when the dependency was last updated by the maintainer. Its a diff of the version you're currently using compared to the latest release

Somehow this made it all click for me, when the landing page didn't. Site made it seem like the measure rewards absolute value recency.

edit:
offending sentence is the following:

> If your system has two dependencies, the first one year old, the second three, then your system is four libyears out-of-date.
The VPN provider knows everything you're doing. You aren't automatically anonymous because you use a VPN, you just shifted the party that gets to inspect your traffic.
Is there somewhere we can discuss? I'm helping out with a curriculum to help slum kids to (web) program in Thailand in English, but in a way that they can learn English as well. I'd welcome more help (project is going slow as I'm low on spare time), and this could also help the kids in Kolkata as well.
In the small, Rescript generates smaller code than Scala.js, that is true. It is mostly a question of the interdependencies in the standard Scala collection library, though, not so much the semantics of the language. And Scala.js also has its share of "tricks" (aka optimizations) to reduce indirections and overhead.

Regarding interop and the link you posted, here is the equivalent documentation page in Scala.js: https://www.scala-js.org/doc/interoperability/types.html

Yes, Rescript has more built-in types that map straightforwardly, but that is at the cost of some correctness. For example, using a JavaScript array means that JavaScript can resize it under your feet. Using `undefined` to represent `None` means that you cannot tell the difference between `None` and `Some(None)`. It's a fine trade-off to make. Scala.js happens to make the other trade-off, and offers separate types for JavaScript interop.

I like the concepts and design of Rescript, really. It's very interesting because they have all the essential requirements right (IMO) like comprehensive JavaScript interop, while making all the opposite design decisions on nonessential trade-offs compared to Scala.js.
The 89% probability of victory is the result of the actual predicted electoral vote total and the uncertainty in that prediction.

Placing an additional uncertainty on the uncertainty is...very much not understanding uncertainty.
I second to this. I had been a loyal customer to their service since Teamviewer 5, recommending friends and family to use the service due to the snappiness and ease to use interface.
Then I got struck by the notorious COMMERCIAL DETECTED thingy and will disconnect my session every minute or 5 or straight up won't work at all.

At first, an appeal fixed that rather quickly, but after 5 similar incidents in just 2 years around Teamviewer 14, they straight up deemed my personal account as commercial even though I bought the commercial version on my work computer and strictly use my personal computer as, well, personal.
After a few emails back and forth, I was very frustrated about how I'm wrongly accused for something I didn't do. So my wise choice was to ditch it and head to the Zerotier + VNCServer ever since.

Recently I stumbled upon this gaming streaming called Rainway, and are quite fascinated by their approach. The stream is smooth and I might use then more.

(I'm not affliated to any companies mentioned above, this is a personal opinion and not a sales pitch.)

Edit: spacings
Can you show one "non-abusive" government that confiscates people's properties? I fail to see one. And I see many proving the opposite.
Unfortunately I can’t listen to the screams on iOS. Not sure if it’s because my phone is on silent. (The toggle switch broke long ago.)

Would love to have a link list to the raw audio files.
That's true, I also think Java is most people's job, and your job is never as exciting as your side project. That said, I am quite excited about Java and maybe especially advancements in the JVM even though part of my job is in Java.

GraalVM is doing some amazing things with polyglot support and native compilation.

Java's project Loom is trying to bring fibers in a really nice way to the language.

It is slowly working on bringing value types and inline types as well.

And it's got a few cool GCs being experimented on, as well as a nice foreign memory API.

Java recently got really nice improvements, multi-line strings, text blocks, local type inference, a shell, running code from source scripts and switch expressions.
“asdasdasd”
I'm sorry but that statement is simply false. Scala does default to, and encourage, immutability.
Desktop environment made in JS? Hell will freeze before I will use such crap with material feel on it. ;)
Are Indians more immune to Covid-19?
You nailed it on the "assuming they do the job right."

The other part is that there aren't any orbital tow trucks to get rogue or broken satellites out of orbit or out of colliding paths. Plus since you never know where it might happen, and the delta-v would be pretty extreme to go very far or very fast, let alone both which would be needed to prevent a collision of an out of control satellite.

The penalty of screwing up could be large, and there aren't many mitigations available.
The things that don't depend on it don't go down. Eg. Your email system doesn't go down because the building's elevator had a bug.

It also let's you choose which parts to pay closer attention to - the microservices that's depended on by everything gets the extra operations
hypocrisy has _many_ forms.
> I just saw that guy sit with Tucker Carlson for an hour and claim he has "Q level clearance". The dude is a hapless boomer QAnon type

Why would you think it's a QAnon thing? Q clearance has to do with nuclear weaponsand related materials[1]. Dude was an officer on a nuclear sub. Nothing related to QAnon.

> Also, here's Fox News confirming it was all bullshit

Again, your sources do not make the point you claim they do. Proof? No, but not bullshit either.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q_clearance
Tip: when a couple starts fighting around you in a coffee shop, turn off your laptop before watching them.
That's not usual. Are you sure you had hardware decoding working?
Absent human influence, Earth would be entering a cooler period now, yes. But that has nothing on corporate decisions, which were driven more by "environmental concerns impact our profits" rather than anything else.
From a technical perspective, many affiliate links are redirect based. So the end user may only see the initial site they clicked from and the final site they go to, but there is a redirect in the middle.

This can be used to track users across the web without their knowledge or consent.

However I don't know Brave's implementation here. Just answering the question in the abstract.
Don't you get to go to court virtually nowadays ... probably using competing software :)
> What people seem to be forgetting, is that Silver's 2016 model explicitly did this.

Well, there was a sub model (the “nowcast”) in the 2016 (and, IIRC, earlier) forecasts that did this, but the headline model did not, it's always been a forecast of the election day results.

> I can't say for sure whether or not Silver changed his model because of Taleb, buuuuut he deserves at least a little credit here.

The change you are describing literally did not happen. The headline model was never an “if the election were held today model”, so it cannot have changed from that to something else. Giving Taleb credit for that change is as sensible as giving Trump credit for ending the COVID-19 pandemic.
F-35 Production Delays: Why the F-35 Lightning II Isn't Done
Wait until programmers realize that telling everybody that they should learn how to code depresses their own wages years later.
I'm fact I'd argue the opposite is true. It's settled that the endgame of self driving will rely only on visual input, since that is what humans need.
I'm sorry that you are stuck in this conspiracy theory. I wish you well. I expect you will not like the election outcome.
On android, Firefox beta (and maybe stable; haven't used stable in a while) allows you to have bookmarks as well as open all links in a private tab by default.

On desktop I use multi account containers and wipe history on exit, and have a handful of bookmarks for convenience.

For both, I use the bitwarden add-on/app to manage passwords.
And this directly bites the NYT because, if anyone there is reading, I saw your excellent AU$1/week offer just yesterday, almost signed up, then thought, nah, I’ve heard that this is a pain in the ass to cancel.

Yeah yeah they probably make more $$ from the people who forget to cancel. Screw ‘em.
Stale libraries are a risk factor for publicly disclosed vulnerabilities (likely more exploitable than the underlying OS, since library code is closer to user input). Also for diamond dependency conflicts when you try to bring in or upgrade a different library.
Loading fonts asynchronously and handling FOUT using a Gatsby plugin
Yeah. The section that compares it to Vim seems to misunderstand that people actually _like_ the modal nature of Vim, and that it's one of its main advantages.
maybe you should give this one a try: https://github.com/rspeele/Rezoom.SQL
Sorry I don't get the USP of this. Can someone explain what's the best of both worlds that is being offered here?

Thanks!
A small feedback if you don't mind: you might be at disadvantage compared to other (most) remote companies who pay based on their HQ. Why would e.g. Romanian dev consider your "Romanian rate" offer when a competing German company offers a "German rate"?

Also, your subscription plans are the same for every country.
And increasing the construction speed is the major thing we need to do here! Otherwise many of us working in seattle from outside will be retired or dead by the time it gets to us. I'm very eager to spend more of my own tax money to construct the system faster. Plus we should do it before Tim Eyman eventually takes away our ability to tax ourselves.
Slim.AI | REMOTE or Seattle | Full-time | Developer Experience Lead | https://github.com/slim-ai/engineering

We are looking for someone, who will enjoy working with lots of different applications stacks helping others, building your own applications and improving the developer experience for the open source core engine and its applications.

We are a funded seed stage startup in the developer tooling and DevOps space empowering developers to build and run their cloud-native applications. The current product is focusing on containers and the friction around them.

We are building a brand new engineering team. We are developer friendly, low on process with no mind-numbing bureaucracy or micromanagement. We are looking for people who'll be excited to be a part of the engineering team in an early stage startup during its inception phase building modern cloud-native applications the right way.

You can find out more about the mission, how we work and the roles here: https://github.com/slim-ai/engineering

Email me at cto@slim.ai if you'd like to learn more.
Binaries written in Rust or Go tend not to require external libraries and tend to be a little more cross-platform than average, it seems. I tend to like things written in Rust or Go.
Hydrogen is very cheap to store. Renewable electricity is free once the panels/turbines are built. There will be long periods with zero price energy and other times with limited energy. Making hydrogen to use for the energy into the dark/unwindy weeks may make more sense than more excess solar/wind.
Imagine a world where instead of inventing new interpretations of the concept of 'rights', we respected private property rights.
Why is it so hard to have effective mirrors of images?

Images are basically content addressed, it should be easy to create an ecosystem where when you first use an image you pin a copy on a private cache, instead of shuffling hundreds of GB around to each leaf node of your clusters.

This way cloud providers could still sell you a managed service that implements such a cache, but it would be used transparently instead of having to change your manifests and/or FROM stanzas.

Netflix iirc has implemented a registry that uses IPFS. But talking to the right registry still requires that the image name includes the hostname of the registry.

The docker daemon has a registry-mirrors option; you can already use that to point to https://mirror.gcr.io . But you can use it only to cache the special "docker hub" images.

This seems to be a self-inflicted problem. Docker the company possibly wanted to be in the critical path
I open massive files in a text editor all the time.
So you say that a government which takes (unwillingly) the inheritance of all its citizens can pull it off without a totalitarian approach, suppressing freedom of speech, constant surveillance (to figure out who has what) etc?

I don't buy it :)
> The irony of this is that the RPi is far more closed and proprietary than regular PCs and their components

This is such a strangely obvious lie that it's hard to imagine why you would write it.
See that’s your first problem, you think everyone has an adversarial relationship with the IRS and that’s simply not true.

These structures often require a very collaborative relationship with the IRS with many things approved, elected or notified of in advance. The IRS only cares about compliance, not a hardline on actual revenue collection. The IRS has many doors for compliance.
In Rural China, Villagers Say They're Forced from Farm Homes to High-Rises
True, it could explain a small difference. But here the difference is huge, especially in terms of RPM.
There are plenty of libraries for computable numbers [1], which sit between the rationals and reals

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computable_number
I opened the link. The only thing spoken to my screen reader was "enable accessibility". I pressed the button (it didn't accept space bar, but only enter) and it just announced an empty page.

I can't speak to the qualities of the os, but hopefully this won't be the entire a11y experience both on the website and on the os itself if both use flutter.
For the same reason UNIX actually won against much better OSes, copy paste of freely available source code, C is the JavaScript/PHP of systems programming languages and there were much better and secure platforms out there, including Multics.

However the power of free beer....
So small groups of individuals can take advantage of this given they are international enough?
I never expected it to compete with real editors. I'm just disappointed by the flippant and very dismissive "comparison" section, which manages to perfectly miss what makes each editor so popular. asciimov's comment sums it up.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24976470
Probably, but then we don’t use our normal editors when we want to open huge files, we use the fast ones.
New short term accelerator accepting applications. Apply Now
I run an app development agency UXHYPE and I'm starting a new program where I'll work with different founders in a 1 month sprint to validate or build their products in exchange for a percentage of equity. Depending on where the idea and company is at we'll have 2 options.

Option 1: Validate the product and get first customers
Option 2: Build a working prototype (Only if the product is already validated)

This is very experimental but the goal is to have a validated product ready to pitch investors or a working prototype ready for customers to test and experiment with.

If interested please fill out the form here https://www.uxhype.com/accelerator
However, marktplaats.nl is owned by eBay.
Tips to find direct advertisers using Google – Blogging
When there is huge demand for a product prices go up. Then the people who really need it will still be able to buy it. This is a good feature of markets.
It's easy to quote a low price if you have zero stock to sell. The alternative was not masks available at low prices, the alternative was no masks.
You can't port your cellphone number without a few things - name, address and account number.

Guess what -- cellphone account numbers are very hard to find nowadays. They don't give it out without contacting someone directly and getting transferred to someone who asks "Just curious, can I ask why you want your account number?"
These guys used to be on the Fuchsia subreddit fairly frequently. They were definitely far from experienced or professional. IIRC, the founder is very young and was very much a beginner to OS development.
Summers is right, of course releasing M3 would be a no-brainer.

Can we ever reconcile accounting and economics? With its excess cash reserves, if Apple paid tax, absolutely nothing about its business would change.

The more profound perspective is, who is really the tax collector then? Who is playing that economic role? Obviously these giant tax-evading companies. They are accumulating huge stockpiles of cash they cannot spend, a long-running surplus, they can't even effectively give it back to shareholders, and it's not because of tax policy. It's because they are the tax.

That's not controversial, some people call it simply rent seeking, but Summers should be going a few steps further: can we characterize the exact amount of non-tax compulsory payments (NTCPs) we are giving to Apple? Is there a policy process to convert the beneficiary of NTCPs from private ownership to the public, i.e. make it just a plain old tax?
These trees were already 8+-10 inches in diameter. Wouldn’t you normally do the thinning much sooner?
Can they get a working and well designed management tool for their own cloud first?
Those have all reached the good within bounds, no?
⌃X is just close.
But for 10MB range do you even feel the delay for any of text editors? For me it feels instant whatever (terminal based) editor i'm using. And what does it even mean "fast" in this case. They all are definitely faster than me typing.
To be clear, you are already deducting any and all expenses related to your side business even if you're only filing as self-employed?
It's only intuitive to people who grew up with PC-style keybindings as well—the editor does not appear to bind super-s despite this being the other obvious keybinding.
> Agreed, I thought it was amusing that there's a comment saying, "wow this headline is perfect for HN" and yet so much negative talk in the other comments.

Well, the headline is perfect for grabbing HN's attention, and the comparison section is perfect for making HN angry, so that's only to be expected.
I assume this doesn’t work if your terminal uses a vertical line to show the cursor?
> You cannot condense both your expectation value and uncertainty in a single percentage

Yes, you can.

The predicted outcome is a particular electoral vote total. The uncertainty around that predicted value is what gets you from that to a probability that the outcome will be at least 270. That's a single percentage that results from the combination of the predicted result and the uncertainty around it.
I had to call them up.

Also, try to cancel the 50gb storage upgrade for 99 cents they automagically enable for no discernible reason (and it's not running out of storage space). Apparently there's some different process for that.

Apple is funneling you into services, kicking and screaming.

I know tim cook is a nice guy, but I suspect post-jobs apple has fewer appropriate checks and balances.