skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Taleb's criticism was that the chance it rains four months from now shouldn't reliably vary about a mean (say from 30% to 70% to 30% to 70% etc) in the four months leading up to that day. Because if it does, I can make risk-free money by betting it won't rain on days the payout for not-rain is high, and betting it will rain on days the payout for rain is high.

If a time-smoothed average of your predictions is a better prediction of the outcome than your current prediction, then your current prediction is wrong. The idea that someone can improve on your current prediction by averaging your last 10 predictions is a sign that your methodology for generating "current predictions" is deeply suboptimal.
A Rainbow Without Colors
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Good guess, but that wasn't what eBay delisted. They did however feel the need to delist "8GB MicroSD Card with NOOBS 2.0".
using a non-compete agreement [1] in the employment contract or as a condition for a severance package, etc.

May or may not be enforceable depending on a million different factors.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-compete_clause
The people on HN with ability to downvote are some the biggest assholes on the internet. Seriously worse than reddit. I guess I shouldn't be surprised.
We can try going deeper.

I may be making a dumb mistake: when I got to 538 — the main number I see is 89%. I don’t see 89% +- 40.

What is his confidence interval?
No, it wants to be 90% of the OS except the kernel (the other 10% is libc and a package manager).
It's security through obscurity. For pure software stuff, like Widevine L3, you can just patch the browser or insert a shim to spit out the decrypted video somewhere.

https://github.com/artemist/widevineproxy
This would be extremely cool - and we (at Brave) did put in work to get a solution working (huge kudos to Jocelyn Liu who did the work). Repo up at https://github.com/brave/go-translate

However, the problem comes to licensing costs :( Setting aside the privacy implications of sending content on a site (since you opt-in), the content needs to be fed to a service. Microsoft and Google charge a per-transaction fee on each of these service calls and it can end up being quite expensive
Barrett: The Catalogue Raisonné of Syd Barrett’s Artwork
Basically the administration turned the tables on Big Tech. They primarily import H1Bs to dilute the employment pool to let the market take care of wage depression. There is plenty of tech talent pipeline inside the country. Just look at the eager undergrads looking for employment and other US citizens looking to step into tech field via boot camps. Increasing the threshold for the wages to paid for “specialty occupation for which several attempts have been made to hire US Citizens” aka H1B makes the test true to the spirit of the law.
Baby Shark is now the most-viewed YouTube video, and there’s no end in sight
And Indians.
Make sure to keep in mind that # of people holding a worldview has no bearing on whether or not it is true. Billions of people believe in an ancient supreme fairy ruling over the cosmos - there being billions who would consider non-belief wrong does not in itself contribute anything meaningful to the conversation.
With dense planting of that sort you will thin (and get some natural thinning) so that your final crop will be much lower, usually 300-1000 stems/ha compared to 5000+.
I've faced Google captchas while creating an HN account too. It's everywhere.
Switzerland benefits from having POP ticketing, whereas US planners insist on faregates. The only reason the US builds mezzanines is to manage the faregate queues.
This sounds more like the Oracle model than AWS.

Or exactly what Docker just did if you squint a bit.

In which case, just move.
Wait 'till you find out what an Americano pizza in Finland is: https://www.sspfinland.fi/files/6115/7709/5902/1Pizzamenu_Ce...

Spoiler: pork, tinned pineapple and blue cheese, of course.
IMO it isn't that hard to crack a DRM system. My understanding is that most of the protections are legal, not technical, as in, if you do it, they'll sue the hell out of you and win.
> It could very well be there are older alternative libs that are better

The libyear metric doesn't count when the dependency was last updated by the maintainer. Its a diff of the version you're currently using compared to the latest release, to tell you how out of date your current dependencies are.

Its pretty much a dependency drift fitness function (https://www.thoughtworks.com/radar/techniques/dependency-dri...). Some of the variants on this page do support alternate metrics, like the ruby and node versions which can calculate number of releases behind rather than time.
Between this and having Covid under control, New Zealand sounds like an incredible place to live right now.
Does this in some way end up in an anti-trust vertical integration situation?

Dockerhub runs on AWS infrastructure to begin with. Is this similar enough to the railroad company undercutting the freight company that uses their railroad tracks?
A real improvement would be to reduce the amount of grain we need to produce. Cutting down on beef consumption would have a huge impact.
The entire hellenic world was pretty much an earthquake zone too
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I've worked to help YC founders launch 2 YC startups in healthcare and fintech and pushed them from idea to public launch in months. I've also worked on a number of startups. I currently work full time in fintech (affiliate/cashback space) but am open to part-time contracting jobs on the side.

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What species of pine are they? Pines tend to grow fast but are short lived but I would only remove them if they are >40cm dbh. For the rewood the only thing you could do would be to thin and remove competition if there are trees to close, you could also prune if you want. (I study forestry science in New Zealand where we grow a lot of Californian species)
I’m not so sure - housing is so expensive in the Bay Area it’s more than just moving to retire.

I grew up in Buffalo where housing is quite inexpensive so it’s more dramatic for me, but a small house to raise a family is 2.3 million on the peninsula, super old, pretty small (1600sqft), and being a new buyer your property tax on that is 23k per year.

That’s insane even if you get a million dollars in an exit or in google shares.

People just want to be able to have a family and a place to live.

My friends mostly left in their 30s to have kids (mostly Colorado, some Texas).

Even SF is cheaper than the peninsula for a new construction apartment (which don’t really exist in Palo Alto through Cupertino).

You can’t even really escape to Santa Cruz anymore - you’d have to go to Sacramento. At that point you might as well move across the country.

Frustrating bit to me is how unnecessary this is - just people who bought first protected by prop13 keeping the supply down for others.

There’s an irony in seeing people with a Black Lives Matter sign on the lawn, and pushing for No on 22, but when it comes to the most important way to actually help the most people (increasing housing supply) - they instead repeatedly argue against building new or high density housing. And they do this while pretending they’re in favor of housing at the same time.

One of the Palo Alto city council members says there’s no housing crisis - you just need a good realtor (like her). See: https://twitter.com/lydia_kou

Kitty on the planning commission in Cupertino says if they build housing single devs will turn their high school daughters into prostitutes.

People complain about building everywhere, but the housing policy/cost is abnormally bad here.
There’s also Etsy. Originally was intended for hand made stuff but I think you can sell anything on there now.
The tax rate being so high, and expenses so low that it makes living in SF not clearly the optimal economic output. And multiply that effect by 10 when you have kids.

Just school for 3 kids would be, say, 100k after taxes, which would mean you need to earn 150k just to pay school. At 400k your tax rate in california is through the roof.
Of course microservices should be sliced with referential integrity in mind. But a monolith by definition has everything, including utterly unrelated things that have absolutely nothing to do with each other, bundled up into a single, giant, well, monolith. What referential integrity could there possibly be between eg business partner user profiles and internal staff vacation hours?
Adding additional context from the article. It primarily impacts Indian outsourcing companies registered as US companies such as Infosys, Cognizant, TCS, HCL, Tech Mahindra, Wipro etc. These companies have been gaming the system and making billions by underpaying their imported staff.

> An analysis [PDF] of the new rules by non-partisan National Foundation for American Policy noted that the H-1B wage minimums will require foreigners to be paid much more than American citizens on market rates. That's not a problem for the likes of Facebook and Apple, though it will be disastrous for organizations like Infosys, that import immigrant workers, as well as small and medium-sized businesses.
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You’ll work on building services to handle thousands of requests a second across a cluster scaling to hundreds of machines as well as contributing to the popular Storybook open source project.

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Burger King UK wants you order from McDonald’s, to save jobs
LOL this is primarily why many self employed people eventually incorporate. Tax reduction.

You should try it some time.
I really don't know why anyone who wasn't so resource strapped as to have no alternative would want their $$$ services sharing a build-test-deploy-rollback lifecycle or database with the internal staff vacation hours tracker.
On the bright side, eBay isn't a monopoly and this literally costs them money.
There just aren't enough people who come from wealth for it to matter.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/21/science/mosaicism-dna-gen...

That’s not exactly true.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/12/science/chimera-bone-marr...
Unlicensed copy of WinRAR
> and this sped it up by 100%

Over 1,000%.

x87 fsqrt took ~70 cycles on the Pentium MMX x87, x87 fdiv was ~39 cycles - so doing inverse square root on x87 was ~109 cycles. The fast inverse square root routine was in the vicinity of 10 cycles.

In Quake, each vertex needed to have its normal vector calculated, which resulted in... I dunno, 100,000 inverse square root calculations per second, assuming you're pushing 100,000 polygons per second. Assuming a 100MHz CPU, the x87 inverse square root calculations would consume 11% of the CPU cycles, the fast inverse square root routine would consume 1% of the CPU cycles.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X87#Performance
That and not taking away modality from vim makes this project seem like a parody.
It can't.
At least not in Germany... Have you ever read the story of SAP?
Why? We've got lots of coal mines with the equipment to move tons of material. Just start stacking cordwood down below.
I thought this was pretty good. It's a series. IIRC, the author talked to a pharmacist who was involved, discussed his role in TrueCrypt, and so much more.

"He was a brilliant programmer and a vicious cartel boss, who became a prized U.S. government asset. The Atavist Magazine presents a story of an elusive criminal kingpin, told in weekly installments."

https://magazine.atavist.com/the-mastermind
i am not in the US but "many" countries around the world use something called "MAT" or minimum alternate tax, wherein if you calculate taxes which is like zero or even a percentage lower than the limits mentioned, you are forced to pay MAT instead.

forced as in, you can claim a loss and all but you still pay MAT taxes which usually are around 18%.
I personally haven’t worked on a software team not using containers in around 8 years. One place was kind of an exception - containerization was on the road map, but not in use in production yet. They’re everywhere. I’ve deployed 3 containerized services in the last 6 weeks - 2 using Go and 1 using Node. They’re kind of the default these days, especially when deploying to AWS/GC.

I assume it must be similar to some degree for a lot of developers here.
Strong disagree. eBay has become a cesspool.

I finally rage-closed my account after carefully listing a thing, monitoring the auction, being happy when it sold, and then having the buyer casually tell me that they didn’t need it after all.

I remember when clicking the ‘make a bid’ button actually meant something. Wasn’t there even a warning along the lines of ‘you are entering in to a contractual obligation’?
You're comparing regional rail terminal stations, which serve many lower-frequency lines, to subway platforms, which typically serve a single higher-frequency line. (2-10 minutes between trains.) That's the scenario where a mezzanine is less useful.
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a) Nobody cares about container registries.

b) There are dozens of alternatives so AWS isn't going to be a monopoly nor impede competition.
Yes. You sign up for 12 mo contract and pay it off in one lump sum for cancel.
Oh please. As if the App Store and app ecosystem aren't riddled with dark patterns? I can't even begin to count how many times the In-App Purchases preview section of a store listing has shown misleading, incomplete, or incorrect information, and it still has no enforced differentiation between IAP subscriptions and one-time IAPs, among many other issues. And I don't see Apple lifting a finger to improve it.
If that's the reason why, then I guess I don't want a touch screen mac. Looking at my screen now, I would fat finger just about everything if it was a touch screen as sensitive as my iPhone (where I fat finger quite a few of things, and my fingers are really quite narrow). The mouse is a precision instrument. Your finger is not. I'd hate for the UI to suffer due to catering toward a less precise input I have no intention of ever using.
They don't. If insider information is suspected, the company can sue, and then prove it in court. See Waymo.

This is infinitely better than automagically preventing employees from being employable after working for a specific company.
For sure. Also the author is probably going to get bombarded by people referencing their favorite editors. This may help them get out in front of that scene...
Oh yes, I hate this kind of thing so much. People have so many pseudoscientific explanations and theories to support whatever random products and practices they like.

I call these “huh, that makes sense” explanations, since that’s often what people say after hearing them. You even used the magic three words above.
> good introduction about what to expect from ox

Yes, after reading how the author described vim and emacs, I knew this project was not for me.
> Many people find it nearly impossible to focus in silence, or in loud environments.

For me, using brown noise is great for this. I specially like the brown noise from https://simplynoise.com.
I can vouch for this service as it has saved my butt often. You can link your bank account and generate your virtual cards, set limits on them, close it off automatically after a single transaction, etc.
Imagine sacrificing innocent lives because the concept of a "right" is so poorly misunderstood.
If you're mad that Bill Gates is rich, you aren't really interested in helping the poor.
EC2 Image Builder now supports AMI distribution across AWS accounts
My primary concern about using this as a desktop PC with a GUI (perhaps for educational, very cost-sensitive, or developing nation environments) is microSD card write wear leveling problems. Even if you use a "expensive" industrial microSD card, it's still going to suck compared to even a cheap $45 consumer grade SATA3 MLC SSD. And ultimately fail much earlier.
I guess I was confused by the use of the pronoun "it" right at the beginning. With no context, I had trouble deciding what it mean, or deciphering much of the post. What you explained is the only bit I was able to guess at on my own, mostly because it's common sense.

The part about the mathematical viability of fairness was particularly quite puzzling.
If I may join in this game of hubris, I have discovered a pattern as well.

Report 1: Milk is amazing for you.
Report 2: We were wrong, milk is terrible for you
Report 3: Milk may have some benefits
Report n: Whew, milk is good within bounds

Repeat for chocolate, microservices, meditation, religion, wine, nuclear power
One downside is their housing situation is on par with the Bay Area in a lot of places and neither of the two major political parties have committed serious resources to fixing the issue.

The only two political parties with solid proposals on this front are the Greens and TOP. TOP didn't make it into parliament in the recent election, and Labour did so well they didn't really need to give any major concessions to the Greens.

I see where the big parties are coming from -- if they increase supply so much that housing prices fall, a lot of people will be upside down on their mortgages. It's a hard problem.

See https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research-and-publications/speeches/...
If you want a more data-heavy version go to the graphs, then click on the "electoral votes" tab. The shaded part is the 80% confidence interval of each prediction. This is the historical graph form of the "every outcome in our simulations" chart underneath the dot chart. It should be noted that the dot chart at the top of the page does kind of outline the confidence interval (giving a realistic example of what kinds of outcomes might happen) but is obviously geared towards lay-people who don't know what a confidence interval is.

> We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. The sample of 100 outcomes below gives you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible.

I think it would be better if the confidence intervals were better signposted, but it's possible that only the electoral college win margins have solid confidence intervals (I'll admit I don't know enough statistics to know if you could trivially transform the confidence intervals of the electoral college votes to win percentage). The senate and house predictions explicitly show the confidence interval in their main graphs.
this? https://www.handsonscala.com/table-of-contents.html

You the author or something? I'm actually learning F# and OCaml and am interested in Scala as well.
One possible error in ground speed measurement: the tire likely grew in diameter as it spun faster. I don't know how large the effect is here, but it's worth checking or noting.
> Ox is so lightweight that it can be used on older computers.

The vagueness of this statement is great.
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About: I'm a tech lead (still coding full time) with 10 years of full stack experience (Java - admittedly rusty right now - and Ruby). I love learning about code (see my book review blog) and using tech to help my team go faster. My career has been full stack but I find myself leaning more towards backend things, I'm enjoying the microservices and API world. I'm also well practised with remote: in the last 5 years I've worked with developers on four different continents.

I'm looking for teams where I can code while learning from and teaching others. I'm also not shy of speaking in front of crowds.
I feel like no project should be allowed to advertise itself as "fast" unless it presents at least one (1) measurement demonstrating it.
> Is there a term "Threatware"?

Yes: https://www.google.com/search?q=%22Threatware%22
DahliaOS operating system, combining the best of GNU/Linux and Fuchsia OS
Master Japanese from Scratch for Free
Your saying Nate Silver has “followers” and that their opinion of him “probably” affects the work he is producing?

How does ego affect the model?

Does your theory extend into other celebrities? Is Taleb affected too?
That really isn’t unprecedented. SF in the 70s and 80s got pretty grimey, attracting younger and more eclectic people who could afford the rents. Those people in turn make the area more desirable, attracting gentrification and then...well, equilibriums win in the long run.
Get started with Microsoft Cloud for Healthcare solutions by Dynamics 365
Probably because dealing with people selling lots of individual items does not scale well and eBay's issues are not easy to solve, even after decades.
> Any input on the impact of guarantees? Is this not something we do? Is it irrelevant because if funding isn’t there, they evaporate?

A lot of government contracting is about the process of extracting the money. Multi-year contracts can be particularly fraught with risk--Can a lawsuit shut you down? Will some Senator come shake you down to score "See how much money I just saved us?" points. Did some other project supersede your priority? Did a budget shortfall take 15% out of everybody?

It is simply smart behavior to front load payments and back load execution if you are a company dealing with the government. If you get really lucky, you bank a bunch of money, don't do anything, and then the project gets canned. If you get really unlucky, you bank the money, don't do anything, and then the project flares up in importance and you get slammed by the now looming deadline (see: the original ACA government website debacle).

Some if it is also that companies will optimize to the rules. Do bids go to lowest bidder always? Okay, then the companies will optimize to low bid and charge through the roof for change orders. Is the company responsible for maintenance? If not, then you can be sure that the project will be built to the absolute minimum quality that can be countenanced and leave the maintenance nightmare to somebody else.

You get what you actually incentivize even if it isn't what you necessarily wanted.
Reread your comment. I misunderstood the first time round. You presented a theory that Apple implemented Emacs keybindings for Cocoa text input widgets not because of Emacs per se, but rather, mainly for consistency with bash. It's an interesting theory, but without a history lesson backed up by sources it's still a theory.

For the record I don't underestimate how much effort Apple puts into system-wide consistent behaviors in macOS. 
Also, zsh's default keybinding mode is Emacs mode.
 (Of course, you did mention that.)