skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> in the realm of SOL the only way you can be sure that you've really got "the" standard model and haven't mistakenly grabbed another one is if you can confidently state the truth value of every one of a never-ending stream of theorems which cannot be proved using your metatheory

Let me try to restate this and see if it helps.

I say I've specified a second order formal theory that has the standard natural numbers as its unique semantic model. But "the standard natural numbers", from the standpoint of set theory, is a set, and I can apply set theory operations to it to obtain other sets. For example, I can apply the power set operation. Or I can apply the construction that is used to obtain omega-1 (the first uncountable ordinal). So it's not really true that my semantic model "only" includes the standard natural numbers. Unless I simply disallow any set theory operations altogether (which throws away most of the usefulness of the theory), I have to accept that my semantic model includes sets I might not have thought of when I set up my formal theory.

So, now that I have recognized that, for example, I can apply two different operations to my set N (the set of standard natural numbers), the power set operation P and the omega-1 construction O, I then have an obvious question: are P(N) and O(N) the same set, or different sets? And if CH is indeed logically independent of my formal theory, then the answer is that there are two semantic models of my formal theory, not one: one model in which P(N) and O(N) are the same set, and another model in which they aren't. So I haven't fully pinned down a unique semantic model after all.

Or, if CH is not independent of my formal theory, then I don't know what, exactly, my semantic model is--what sets are in it--until I figure out whether CH holds in my model or not, and that might take a while. And there are actually an infinite number of possible cases where this kind of issue might arise.

Is this a fair summary of the issue you have been trying to describe?
>the path to prosperity was built on the backs of captured slaves

Slavery is common, especially in Africa today.

>which left the rest of the world damaged but USA emerged out with a massive industrial infrastructure

And yet we're the ones with a lower standard of living, a worse social safety net, worse health, higher debt, higher crime, worse education, and no universal healthcare system. Guess diversity and immigration didn't work out so well after all.
This was posted 3 years ago
This is astonishing! You said exactly what we are living through right now except we are at 4 years and counting.
Taleb is saying that if your rain model four months out shows 2%, 8%, 3%, 9%, then it should have instead shown 5-6% that entire range instead. If your final prediction ends up at 90%, your path there should resemble a sort of random walk.

Put another way, the 538 model doesn’t add enough variance when we’re still months out. This shouldn’t be surprising, as Silver himself emphasizes that their primary metric is ‘last minute’ prediction accuracy.
This computer-in-a-keyboard is very cool!

I think that in the future, we might be comfortable bringing around our tablets and connecting them wirelessly(or wired) to monitors at our home, office or PC cafe, and do presentations, code, etc.

This is almost possible today with tablets.

This keyboard almost achieves this vision, but it doesn't provide you with a screen, so it's not possible to show anything while you're on the go... Though I wonder if someone could do some work with keyboard-and-headphones only?

EDIT: Carry an android tablet, and this keyboard, with a battery pack, and you can show the keyboard's view onto the android tablet: https://youtu.be/PZLEUOG9k4Y . It might be nice
“Software might stop being free unless we start paying for it” has a certain circular irony.
I think the easier method would just be defining an alternative character sequence to shebang lines which binfmt_ misc is happy to do for you. You already have to change the shebang line to support long lines, what’s switching the symbol to ‘#%’ or something?
No, indeed, neither have I. And it may or may not be coming or true, i don't know :) That's why I keep asking to see the evidence when I keep seeing someone making the claim: I actually want to see it if it exists or if they're just repeating the news stories.

To me, it's not the position that Covid has long term effects that's incredulous, because we know that a proportion of a lot of viral infections can develop into longer term complications and effects. But it's the idea/observation that the longer term effects are both comparatively worse than other viruses, and splitting the quantumn of those effects into a "general covid effect" (that is to say, the probability of the effect for a given case of covid), and those of a "general pandemic effect" (that is to say, the population-size effect of having all these infections happening at once due to a relatively vulnerable population with little immunity, in contrast to some of the older/other viruses).

But I admit myself a little more than disturbed how every time I ask to see comparable figures/studies to see how we have knowledge of long-term effects of a virus that's only been around for the short-term, and claims that are usually made without any reference to the viruses to which covid needs to be compared, that I generally get hit by a quick wave of downvotes.
Thank you geerlingguy for your ansible repositories!!
Uber Engineering, SF and Sunnyvale, remote until July but on-site After. We’re hiring mobile, backend, and data eng for the Product Intelligence and Experimentation Teams. Want to build services in the 100k*n QPS, near real-time systems processing petabytes of data, powering human and machine decision in our marketplaces? Apply here or email me at lduncan at Uber

https://www.uber.com/global/en/careers/list/63377/
There are already examples of alternatives, like it could have some kind of brain and communication apparatus to work with others of its species and put together things like GPU simulations of protein modeling to generate optimized artificial antibodies.
I feel like in 2020, readme with screenshots don't cut it for me anymore . I need a youtube video of someone going through in couple minutes to get me interested.
Broadcast TV-watching may be going down to a large extent (and even Cable TV), but even some of the poorer families can get their hands on an old Wii, Xbox 360, or the like from a Goodwill.
Ecosystems matter a whole lot when you're just trying to GSD. That's why Rails, for all its flaws, still beats the pants off many other solutions (for the right problems).

And then, when you have a ton of code, you have a lot of embedded knowledge and throwing it all away is tough.

Looking forward to the next installment to hear what is next.
eBay removing Raspberry Pi listings as they “encourage infringement”
They also ignored the modes and composability of Vi.

Chalk up another mark on the board of unserious things the Rust community does with its time.

Edit: I'm sure this will be an unpopular, downvoted comment. I just want to say that I think that Rust is a fantastic language with an enthusiastic community. It's just a community that repeatedly demonstrates that it doesn't know what "good" looks like and has the world's worst case of NIH. Something about the community attracts the like minded.
Ask HN: Why are we so lenient with spammers?
Mitigating spam is like operating systems or browsers adding patches for Meltdown and Spectre: it is superficially effective but disregards the underlying issue and results in inefficiencies bordering on dysfunction. To ask a software developer to solve a social problem is in violation of the separation of concerns. We must pursue the offensive against bad actors and delegate authority to those most qualified: legislators and law enforcement.

Little by little these people are eroding our Internet freedoms and increasing the difficulty to register for services. If we don't do something before it's too late we're going to end up in a situation where every service requires a Facebook or Google account to function. Mock my words but once the technical debt for all of these mitigations accumulates we're going to end up in dark, dark times.

So, why is everyone a spam apologist? Why am I paying exorbitant taxes if the government isn't going to protect me from hostile entities like spammers? We have some of the most aggressive and expensive intelligence agencies and you're telling me that getting them to drop paratroopers on spammers is impossible? You don't need 5 eyes to see that spam is a problem plaguing your citizens. I'm willing to pay even more taxes if it means we can form a branch of military dedicated to targeting these entities.
It's impossible to believe any forecast, nobody fessed up after 2016 nor did they explain why their models are wrong or attempt to update them. You're less than 24 hours away from the permanent death of the political polling and forecasting industry in the USA.

Nate's already coping really hard on Twitter.
I've also seen (elsewhere) "inspired by emacs ... it has emacs keybindings".

One of the advantages of emacs is that an insane level of customisation is possible. Or, more practically, the high level of customisation allows for a lot of low-hanging fruit for people to create editor macros that suit their usage.
> Did that ... create business value for your company?

Image what a piece of crap Linux kernel would be if it was developed with this mindset. :-)

EDIT: The context is that there's constant code splitting code moving being done inside Linux.
Walmart Scraps Plan to Have Robots Scan Shelves
The problems with Silver's results is that it is from a "seat-of-the-pants" model. It is trying to do some form of data mining with the data, but there is little underlying foundations to guarantee that it is even close to reality. Regular polls are more transparent because they (at least the well done) will tell you the methodology and the statistical limitations of the research. You can't get that from what Silver is doing.
Deep NNs are already competitive with specialized pipelines for translation and speech.

The primary downside is that they require more data to train.
On the Underrated Topic of Master Data
> "White flight", a largely racist reaction to the civil rights movement involving increased protests and riots in cities

I think you have cause and effect reversed here. The original "pull" trigger was the automobile becoming affordable to the middle classes, making suburban living possible and leading to many leaving cities. The racist bit here is that many of these suburbs had covenants prohibiting non-whites.

The "push" factor came when poorer (non-white) people started moving into these vacated, now cheaper inner city properties. This in turn led more whites to leave, but here too the push wasn't just racism, but also concerns about falling property values, rising crime, etc.

Also, FWIW, as a non-American I found the SF of 2019 positively scary. Homeless camps in the Tenderloin, mentally ill people raving about murder on Market St, etc -- you don't see this kind of thing in equivalently wealthy European or Asian cities.
It is very hard for me to understand what they're referring to with discussion of calibration. They would presumably be using some type of augmented GPS/differential GPS which could require calibrated ground stations depending on accuracy targets, but the error you'd get from using unaugmented GPS or a low-setup augmented GPS like WAAS wouldn't be large enough to account for the errors discussed here. A cheap consumer GPS receiver like the one in your phone shouldn't produce the errors in question over a meaningful distance outside of some really fringe situations.

One of the specific claims is that the GPS equipment doesn't show a speed of zero when the vehicle is not moving - it's hard to understand how this would happen, a poorly set up DGPS scheme would not produce a 20mph rate of change in fixes for a non-moving object unless it was seriously defective.

All in all it feels a lot like the "calibration" here is just a hand-waving excuse for the outcome - the margin here is so large that calibration issues are not going to account for it unless there was outright incompetence.

The vendor involved, DEWE, makes various types of augmented GPS equipment but also inertial measurement products. Calibration would be a much bigger issue with inertial measurement and that could make more sense, but all the reporting on this says GPS was in use.
> bind top / bottom of the document to Ctrl + PageUp / Ctrl + PageDown.

I think most editors on mainstream Linux distros and also Windows use Ctrl + Home/End for to go to the top/bottom of a document.
Almost all of those will have cheat sheets or reproductions or scans or even patches/cracks somewhere if the game had a big enough following.
Are you asserting that all 100% of those in the 9 states are the gay marriage supporters?
FTA, “ I believe Nate Silver is answering a subtly different question with his election forecasts. Each data point that Silver produces is answering the question: if the election were to happen today, what is the probability of each candidate winning?”

If that’s true, then Nate Silver just does poll analysis, not predictions. Predictions should be on the day of the election, not the day you’re reading their blog post.

In other words, Taleb is right.
What's got two thumbs, speaks French and loves SimpleHelp as a replacement for that turd that is TeamViewer? C'est Moi!

OTP for a license, host the server on my Infra ($5/mo) and works for 100% of my needs (training, remote support).

And once, ages ago, I asked for help to tune up their SSL settings, it wasn't in the docs. Like two days later they closed my ticket - because they had updated their docs and also sent me a direct email, asking if it was good (it was).
It is my understanding that DMCA requests have to be honored immediately unless the hoster wants to expose themselves to large legal risk. The uploader of the banned content can file a counter request, upon which the copyright holder either withdraws, or things land in court. But if the hoster doesn't honor the request they lose their hosting privilege and can be sued for copyright infringement themselves.
Guessing at what Teleb would say: if it rained on 2% of days, and weather forecasts are only good a week out, you'd expect a reasonable model to have the probability sit around 2% until a week or so before the prediction date, then move up or down, maybe with some noise. If you saw the probability swinging from 20% down to 0.1% a month out you should be suspicious.

A 90% chance in the election a long way out is suspicious if we think that the chance effects are large and roughly even-handed. Regardless of assumptions about the distribution of chance events though, multiple large swings are themselves suspicious because they each by definition imply the observation of highly improbable events.
So, the only thing stopping a user from obtaining a clean copy of the content is the fact that the CDM is closed source?

What if a CDM vendor leaked the source code? I guess the DRM server would block them after a while, but before they notice, the user would have free access to the content, right?
basically this is what stood out to me. that and mentioning Vim modes and saying, "but not this!"

still, I don't like to be harsh. there is a difference between treating this as a serious alternative to a Vim or Emacs (or whatever) and a programmer resume piece. I could see it being quite fun to develop my own editor as a toy project.
> the election were to happen today, what is the probability of each candidate winning?

He's explicitly not doing this.

Here's how I think about it. Silver is answering the question: "how much would the polls (as an aggregate) need to differ from the final result in order for Candidate X to win/lose, conditioned on some reasonable priors?"

Taleb is pointing out that the polls could be really wrong in all sorts of ways that are impossible to predict a priori.

The whole argument is sort of pointless from an intellectual/academic perspective. It's a war of public personalities more than anything else.

It's both the case that Silver designed a good piece of software that does what it's supposed to do and also the case that Taleb's skepticism is valid. But then, that sort of skepticism of statistical models is always valid, and yet we use these models to great effect in all sorts of settings.
> The command examples you quote don't really have any bearing on modality.

They do, actually. What happens if you type `yy` in a non-modal editor? You get "yy" in your text. It only works in Vim because you're in normal mode.
Not even reported any more?

My good man, i propose that outside of news stories focusing on relatively small samples and individual case studies, which generally make no comparison to other virus' comparative effects or mention of the biases inherent in their sample, it is no longer being reported because it has not yet been established.

And the reason for this is nothing conspiratorial or denialist, but just due to the fundamentals of good science: that is to say, it's REALLY REALLY hard to accurately establish the long-term effects of a novel virus that has only been around in the human population for the short-term.
This is a debate I will never understand.

The position of the monolithics is "you should have one thing". Well, that's obviously wrong, if you're doing anything even slightly complex.

The position of the microservice people is "you should have more than one thing", but it gets pretty fuzzy after that. It's so poorly defined it's not useful.

How about have enough things such that all your codebases remain at a size where you don't dread digging into even the one that you're most prolifically incompetent coworker has gone to town on? Enough things that when not very critical things fail, it doesn't matter very much.

But only that many things. If you need to update more than one thing when you want to add a simple feature, if small (to medium) changes propagate across multiple codebases, well, ya done messed up.

If you're one of the people believing monoliths are The Way, you're making a bizarre bet, because there's N potential pieces you can have to create a complex system, and you're saying the most optimal is N == 1. What are the odds of that? Sometimes, maybe. But mostly N will be like 7 or something. Occasionally 1000. Occasionally 2. But usually 7. Or something.

This seems really obvious to me.
Damn, what a shitty, negative comment.
Incredibly click-baity title and incendiary first paragraph were hard to get past.
Editor looks pretty cool, but I really admire how optimized the headline is for reaching the top of the front page. I mean, it's practically an HN bingo card in a single line: Text editor! Rust! Terminal! Fast! All that's missing is "minimalist" and "respects your privacy".
Designing Defensively: Guilty Gear
I've always wondered too if it would be possible to log all the values it's actually calculating the inverse square root for, and just save them in a lookup table.
Or even just the most common x% of them if you could reliably know for which numbers its most commonly running the calculation on.
Well pre-2016 there was the assumption that the American electorate basically is capable of self-governing. This assumption has been invalidated so while the polling industry hasn’t gone away it’s now more like the sports forecasting industry, where people are speculating on an essentially theatrical performance, than something substantively driving good governance.
Mega Man on DOS – Gaming Historian
Minor addendum, Silver altered his model to become more certain as the election drew near after 2016. In effect, it changed from a “what if the election were today?” Model to a “what will the outcome of the election on date ___ be?” Model just for this cycle.

I can’t say why for certain, but it definitely could be that Taleb’s 2018 criticisms played a part.
That's not true, there have been countless articles about why polling went wrong last time.

Also, polling wasn't that wrong. Due to sampling bias, several swing states were off by as much as 5-6 percentage points. But national polling bad Hillary winning by something like 4% in the popular vote.

Instead, she won the popular vote by 3%.
That trend is usually limited to a TodoMVC level of effort. It's not usually about reinventing wheels (or worse). Except in the Rust case, where it almost always is.
I've seen monoliths screw this up. All it takes is some abstractions, maybe an ORM. Suddenly the novice programmer is too far away to notice they're running multiple queries outside a transaction without a simple way to fix it.

In fact, I think its quite common.
Believing that occurrence of an event with a forecasted 30% chance (or 2% chance) of occurring invalidates a model is so fundamentally a misunderstanding of the topic.
I bought a bunch of N95 masks and air purifiers in anticipation of the 2019 fall fire season in the Bay (since 2018 was super bad for the time), and I must say I never could have imagined the ROI on utility from this past year lol
> I believe Nate Silver is answering a subtly different question with his election forecasts. Each data point that Silver produces is answering the question: if the election were to happen today, what is the probability of each candidate winning?

As others have pointed out, this is definitely not what Nate's model was doing. In fact, he did have a version of the model that did exactly this, the so called "Now-Cast" and as expected it was even more volatile than the real model:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/...
Can you elaborate a bit on what you mean by, "nobody fessed up after 2016"?

From my understanding there wasn't the "big miss" that got called out in media, and to the extent that the rust belt/upper midwest had state level polling variance, it was determined to be due to the lack of accounting for education as part of polling.

I guess if it doesn't rain and the weatherperson says it should have rained, do we give up on even trying?
Well, if these weren't the results that the community produces over and over and over and over again. Look up any of the long list of "X in Rust" Show HN posts that there have been.

It's kind of a meme at this point.[0,1,2]

It's going to start effecting interviews. I'm saying this as a hiring manager who has to evaluate what projects candidates spend their time on and what they are going to be like to work with. People who oversell their work or don't know how to evaluate value go into the hard pass pile.

And no, I'm not shitting on them for having a hobby project. I'm shitting on them for clearly demonstrating that they don't understand what the very mainstream software they're actively trying to compete with does.

[0]:https://transitiontech.ca/random/RIIR
[1]:http://adventures.michaelfbryan.com/posts/how-not-to-riir/
[2]:https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21334510 (which is just the comments here from [1], but also interesting.
It'd be interesting to see his notebook and see examples of code. Link here has expired.

https://screeps.com/forum/topic/2937/a-strange-request-for-h...
> I honestly don't even get what Taleb is truly arguing here. He is using a lot of statistical arguments but ultimately Silver is making a model to predict an outcome. It is like a weather forecast.

"Making models to predict" is precisely the fluff that Taleb is against. There is no "if elections were held today", there are no do-overs, there is only one election. And you either win or lose (binary price [1]). So any prediction that doesn't incorporate the events between making the prediction until the election actually occurs, is worthless, or to be more precise: 50/50 (arbitrage free). The probability only goes up when you start counting the actual votes on Election Day.

[1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/1703.06351.pdf
Taleb made a career from stating the obvious and making it appear as a smart discovery. I've read some of his writings and have never found anything really new.