skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
That's not their method at all. They're very insistent on the fact that voting shifts or errors between states are generally highly correlated.

That's exactly why their probability forecasts tend to be more conservative than other forecasts. If you see a whole lot of possible paths for a candidate, and assume the errors are random, then that candidate will almost certainly win. If you know they might be correlated, then you know that a huge number of paths may shift at once.
LXQt 0.16.0 Is Out: A Lightweight Qt Desktop Environment for Linux
Owen Magnetic: Jay Leno's Classic Hybrid
Dr. Phillip Lee has died
Why did this just start happening relatively recently?
Account Takeover via IDOR in Starbucks Singapore
Wasn't there a record turnout?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-ma...
You can also check the same post in my blog: https://jeromewu.github.io/build-ffmpeg-webassembly-version-...
> all's right with the world.

No, it is not.

https://github.com/youtube-dl2/youtube-dl
That does not make sense considering the national vote estimates of RV (as high as 11+ Biden) was also way off.
Imagine living with this level of cognitive dissonance. Even completely apolitical Biden supporting normies I see on Facebook and Instagram are saying that the polls were shockingly wrong.
There's also the matter of the electoral college. Regardless of your opinions on its merits as an electoral system, mathematically it acts to amplify tiny vote differences into large electoral vote differences, making it harder to predict EVs.

It looks like the FiveThirtyEight popular vote forecast will end up and few points off of the final count, but it will be within the confidence interval.
Nate Silver is clearly just doing electioneering for the Democratic party at this point, trying to bolster turnout by exciting the democratic base and discouraging republicans. Clearly this scientific fiction has failed, twice now and by an ever greater margin, and until there is a full and unabashed accounting and rectification of this in public these pollsters can never be trusted again by anyone.
I find it far more likely that polling methods are flawed than Trump supporters are intelligent and organized enough to engage in a mass deception campaign.
For some stacks - sure. There’re good number where you’ll run into scalability/cost problem fairly quickly
You are right, I cannot overwrite FFmpeg license. Lol
My issue with 538’s models is how wide their margins are. I believe they use “results are within the 80% bounds of our model” to gauge whether or not it reasonably “worked.”

But that range is so huge as to be useless.

Yes, it only predicts probabilities and can only be as accurate as the underlying data (which seems to be Bad.) But they don’t show/market it as being “anything could happen, this model is wide open and should only be used to rule out crazy outliers”.
Stephen Colbert: “Anybody know what to do when your Democracy does this?”
> If the result is always within the margin of error, how useful does that make the polls?

From the perspective of ad clicks and news readership, very.
To be fair, a "wave" did come, from both sides, is roughly equal size. It is true that Democrats are much more riled up and likely to vote. It is also true that Republicans are riled up and more likely to vote. Both those things can coexist. The only issue is that it's more the sound wave where two inverted waves cancel each other.
really enjoying this series. excellent job explaining what would be a complicated topic for newcomers.
My grandparents told it differently.

To them, it was a dark colloquialism from the world wars. Infantry would often talk to each other about how they were looking forward to "buying a farm" once the war was over and they went home to their families.

When the soldiers died in the trenches, as they often did, it was said that they had "bought the farm" as a euphemism. Usually it was better than saying how they actually died.
Have you ever taken psilocybin/mushrooms? It's quite a remarkable experience. It makes you more sensitive in some respects, far from "drugging yourself into a dreamstate"
Here’s the HN entry: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24846887
I think we’re getting pretty close to understanding the root cause.

Tools that you run in actions can trigger the stdout commands (setting env variables and a few others) via printing to the console.

To do some damage though they need a few other things to happen. The example given is a node process that is run after the attacker has set an env variable with arbitrary code, which node reads and executes.

Additionally since some actions print the contents of PRs and Issues to the console, these can effectively do the same thing. So the attacker doesn’t need to control a cli tool stdout output, they just need to
create a PR/Issue with the malicious code. If an automated workflow writes the PR/Issue to stdout, then the malicious code in the PR/Issue is executed.

Since it’s possible for any action to run commands by writing to stdout, you have to trust that all the actions you use don’t print malicious stuff to stdout, and they themselves might not be malicious, but they might print stupid stuff that contains untrusted input like the contents of PRs/Issues.

It’s not made any easier by the fact that the workflows are in the repo for the attacker to read and study, so they can see exactly what will happen before their attack.

This whole method of triggering commands via stdout is very dodgy, and there is no way to either turn it off, or narrow the scope of what is executed, and it’s not easy to see what happened after the fact either.

At the minute you just have to be very diligent at checking that your actions aren’t printing stupid stuff to stdout that could cause execution of malicious code later in your workflow.

If it’s only the setting of env variables that causes issues, then they might be able to just turn that off because there is another safer mechanism (writing to $GITHUB_ENV) to set env variables.

There might very well be other attack surfaces though that I haven’t thought of.
Yep, people seem to have a hard time understanding that WebAssembly doesn't add any new functionality, it just makes what JS can already do more performant (for cases that benefit from it). WebAssembly by itself is actually running inside a more restrictive sandbox even.
People are surprised by how "wrong" the pollsters are, but hackable voting/vote-counting machines could account for the discrepancies in this and previous elections, both in the US and abroad.

Until machines are taken out of the equation, I find it difficult to consider any election legitimate.

The general public could swallow this because they're completely clueless about computer security, but I'm surprised HN readers would be so trusting of these machines when there's been expose after expose (many of them landing on HN's front page) about how vulnerable they are.
Which is as good as there not being one at all.

Voter engagement is supposed to be high, higher than it is even this election.
UPD: Nat Friedman[0] just explained[1] on HN:

> Hi folks, I'm the CEO of GitHub.

> GitHub hasn't been hacked. We accidentally shipped an un-stripped/obfuscated tarball of our GitHub Enterprise Server source code to some customers a couple of months ago. It shares code with github.com.

> In summary: everything is fine, situation normal, the lark is on the wing, the snail is on the thorn, and all's right with the world.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=natfriedman

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24995121
Every sexual study that sociologists have conducted, ever.

Lying, even when you're completely anonymous, is a serious problem in social sciences, and one for which sociologists have had to correct for.
Paying to decrypt ransomed data seems bonkers too. You’re going to trust they didn’t change something during the encrypt/decrypt process (even if by accident like a bug)? Do people that pay the ransom do something to mitigate this risk?
I wasn’t talking about an agricultural collapse. I mean the natural food chain will collapse.

If you kill all the mammals, then the birds of prey will go extinct, and stuff the mammals eat will overrun what’s left.

If you don’t, then the mammals will keep spreading all sorts of pandemics.

For example, if you live in Silicon Valley, start feeding the squirrels in the woods near you. Eventually, they’ll give you the Bubonic Plague.

The plague is not a big deal these days, thanks to antibiotics, but this is an entire hemisphere away from where it hit, and hundreds of years later.

It wouldn’t surprise me if you could already catch covid from a squirrel if you tried hard enough.

Apparently people catch it from bats fairly regularly, and on average, they don’t get nearly as close to humans as an average rodent would.
Thanks, that’s what I was looking for.

Back to my point, click Trump for Florida (which was considered a 31% chance) and the prediction looks a lot like our current map.
Yes, it does. By the time the millions of remaining votes are counted, these numbers will definitely shift. The popular vote for example always grows as California tallies their slow mail-in votes. 52% will definitely tighten up to the predicted 54.4%. Might not reach it, bt we won't know how close it'll get until we count the remaining votes.
Neurodivergent Author Camilla Pang’s Explaining Humans Wins Royal Society Prize
A lot of land within a few hours of the Bay Area is pretty expensive because it's very productive, it's often bought with Bay Area money, and people pay a premium so they can "have some land." Oh, and you're competing with people with low taxes because of Prop. 13.

With land priced like that, especially when you lease it out, it's even harder to make money. If there's a house on the property and it's halfway close to a town, you might make more leasing the house than the property.

At least when people get into buying apartment buildings they're not competing with someone who will pay a premium so they have room for a horse and can watch the sunset over their field.
It's entirely possible that he was in fact robbed. However he still conceded, just as Al Gore did in 2000. Its just extraordinary that Trump may not concede.
wait wait, Minkallnacht
Well, I'm not a CEO, so I don't care about optics.
So this can finally put Apple's refusal to support Ogg container to rest and make Ogg/Opus work on Apple systems?
How I missed an opportunity to be a Cofounder of an Emerging Indian Unicorn 2020
> we recommend people sign their commits and look for the 'verified' label on GitHub to ensure that things are as they appear to be.

One issue is that you are loading profile images and creating links based on unverified emails (if I click the little picture next to the commit message I get to the impersonated profile). I mean I get that a proper solution might introduce unacceptable friction, but you can't really blame users for misunderstandings in the current state either.
The United States has, at best, 51 different voting systems in a federal election. There is no centralization by design.

That's 51 different voter registration laws, 51 different sets of candidates, 51 different ballots, 51 different voting procedures, etc. Each state's laws have been subtly (and sometimes not so subtly) changed to provide a benefit to whoever was in power at that time.
The Unreasonable Syntactic Expressivity of RNNs
Fantastic comment. I can actually see myself doing this.

How often do you add manure through the soil?
>In fairness, there's already clear evidence of attempts to subvert the election via manipulation of the USPS.

Yet you fail to provide said clear evidence.

There were a lot of nonsense allegations made which conflated delays in USPS parcel processing (volume skyrocketing because of COVID19) and flats processing (volume dropping for same reason, and COVID19-related absences), and related logistics adjustment (removing flats processing machines), and normal attrition/adjustment in USPS drop box locations, with "Trump is trying to stop the vote!" I wrote more about this at https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24290622 .
Some people have dyslexia, or skim too much and don't go past the first letter, I guess.
A right to repair for software would be substantially similar to open source, perhaps with restrictions on commercial use, although in the car space, a right to repair is mostly about giving commercial repairers access, so maybe in software it would just mean mandating all software be open source :)

Edit: perhaps the commercial case could be limited to sharing a copy with a consultant, having them do the repair job, give you back the code and then delete their copy.

For service as a software substitute (SaaSS), I guess if you should have the right to extract your data too.
Reddit threading is just garbage. Impossible to follow the conversation beyond the comment you directly responded to and the immediate ones thereafter. Anything deeper and you never get a notification.
Top wellness and relaxation gift ideas in 2020
I believe it was the late and great George Carlin that said something along the lines of:

"Before you go on any powerful psychoactive medication, just do a quick head count of all the people around you. Are most of them assholes? You may want to just take a nice long vacation, permanently"

P.S. If anyone has the link to that part of whatever stand-up it was, that would be really great to see!
Great. For what it’s worth, the 2009 pandemic strain of H1N1 was spreading around the bay area in 2018, and it didn’t even make news.

I can’t remember if H1N2 is better or worse than it.
It's more complicated than that. In tight races like this you need your party to fall in line, including the larger "extreme" factions. Push too hard away from them and you lose them as voters (e.g. Bernie's supporters in 2016). It's also hard to re-orient a party comprised of thousands of politicians and tens of thousands of operatives in an autonomous media ecosystem moving moving billions of dollars annually to influence public opinion, not to mention an adversarial opposition of roughly the same size and intelligence. There's a narrow space in which an individual campaign can draw battle lines, implement strategies, communicate intent, and maneuver around obstacles. Parties may have a bit more leeway due to coordination but at some point you're trying to herd cats (or otherwise riding a wave over which you have no control).
Weren’t the polls right last elections and this election again? Blue won the popular vote twice.

In any democracy the elections would be over by now, Biden won the popular vote, that’s it. But in the US...
I don’t get what’s surprising. DNA transcription is computation. Decision making only needs the most basic of conditional information processing. Pretty much any regulatory process leading to homeostasis is a form of decision making.
There's the other big that gardeners (especially home covid gardeners) forget: almost nothing you want to grow on your "coupla acres" has enough calories to sustain you. Potatoes are probably the only exception. Everything else--beans, wheat, corn--is a pain to grow and process, especially at a small scale.
Same, I switched decades ago because of rsi. Now I always use the mouse on the left. I used to switch to the right only to do very fine “lasso” work in photoshop. But I do full time development only now.
The reasons the guy who says leaked it:

https://www.reddit.com/r/programming/comments/jnpufo/using_t...

Using the same trick as the one with youtube-dl, I uploaded the entire GitHub backend source code to GitHub's own DMCA repo. Maybe now not only GitHub can have the chance to fix the "bug", but the entire community as well? ;)
> memory is often not a constraint at all

This type of thought process is how we get Electron applications and when several of them are running at the same time they can bring your OS to a crawl by having consumed every bit of memory available for some simple GUIs. Memory absolutely always matters.

Also the people who I see saying memory doesn't matter are usually developers who are running on 32GB+ work stations. They forget about the user still running with 4GB or 8GB of memory.
Turnout numbers are a proxy for political passion, not the absence or presence of suppression. It could just as easily be said that this year's record turnout would have been higher, were it not for the presence of efforts nakedly aimed at suppressing the vote.
Good ol' nicotine.
Hey, just want to say, thanks for the comment. I hope you are getting the help you need. It's not easy these days, even for us 'normal' nerds, so thanks for being here.
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I'm (very seriously) trying to understand how backing something with >2/3 open support, that's clearly bipartisan, would hurt one's political career.

I'm guessing maybe it's because although those who oppose some form of marijuana (neither medical nor recreational) are in the minority, they still make up a sizable voting block when an election is won on the marginal vote. But how does that play out when >2/3 of people support it across the board, and that politician is the only one doing something to push it forward? That politician would literally be the only choice if marijuana is meaningful enough to a voter. So while the politician may lose some supporters, would they not gain support from others?
An interesting man, but with so many internal conflicts. His contribution to architecture and interior design is also notable: He was obsessed with details, making the perfect door handle.

Cross referencing another post elsewhere, Keynes took Wittgenstein on his honeymoon (Keynes btw, was a sex fiend and kept explicit erotic diaries) .. a decision which I think calls his sanity into question!
Isreal Intel now working with Chinese companies

Anyone remmber when White Nations, employed white people to make tech without giving our tech to overseas nations (Israel/China/etc)

Multi culturalism, Feminism, Diversity, Open Borders, Non white population all thanks due to ZIONIST JEWS
I can confirm the hard work part. Up before the sun, down long after it leaves. It’s not a job, it’s a life. I worked on a farm for a summer when I was 19. I’m still ripped from it, you’ll be physically fit in no time. If you want to buy a farm for the purpose of profit, you’ll fail immediately. If you want to buy a farm to learn to farm (profits will come when you can actually grow in bulk) then dive in. There’s also “alternative” farms that maximize vertical space vs acreage. To reiterate the last sentence, go get a job on a farm for watermelon season and ask yourself if you can do that everyday for 20+ years.

(Kennedy Farms in Stony Creek, VA if you’re curious).
Call recording program for Android in a easy way
Call recording program for Android in a very easy way
1. Houses are not "the real estate market". People need dwellings to live in, and the real estate market is there to regulate people's ability to build and occupy them.
In a similar fashion to you, I could very well argue that real estate was designed to perpetuate class by way of a multi-generational ponzi scheme, because that's the de-facto situation.

In reality, like with cryptocurrency, trying to attribute intention where you only see an effect is just manipulative.
So its an online digital dairy that is based in the clour that intergates with Jewish and "American" coprorations that censor and deplatform and hate FREEDOM and FREE SPEECH

What could go wrong handing over our personal data to these people/companies

It would never be used as a poltical weapon against the people
OCaml doesn't have union types. It has what it calls variants, and what is generally known as Algebraic Data Types. So does Scala 2.
Ethereum 2.0 Countdown Begins with Release of Deposit Contract
> then pretending that this is something the legislature can update

Where did the pretending happen?
> but the Electoral College was definitely invented to appease the South

No it wasn’t. Under both the Northern proposed New Jersey Plan as well as the Southern proposed Virginia Plan, the President would have actually been elected by Congress. There were concerns that having Congress elect the President would jeopardize separation of powers. So the Electoral College was created, with one elector for each member of Congress. It had nothing to do with protecting the interests of slave-holding states, but instead was designed to make the Presidency more independent of Congress. The fact that the President would be elected by States as opposed to people directly was uncontroversial. What was controversial was whether the apportionment of those votes should be proportional to the population (where both chambers of Congress had proportional votes) or whether it should be the degressive proportionality that we have today (where the upper house has equal representation). The slave-states wanted the former, not the latter, owing to their population advantage.

Also, degressive proportionality as a concept is fairly uncontroversial in the context of Federal electoral systems: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degressive_proportionality

It’s what’s used to allocate seats in the European Parliament, who vote to elect the President of the European Commission, who is the Head of Government of the EU. In many ways, the structure of the EU is identical to that of the US, especially prior to the passage of the 17th Amendment.
It’s actually the opposite, Microsoft is slowly killing Azure DevOps in favor of GitHub. That’s why Actions is getting so much traction and why codespaces on Azure was killed.
We're talking about the same thing unless your stance is 100% of people known 100% of the product SKUs they want when looking for things and they know these before they start looking. For those that don't go in knowing the want exactly "Lay's Southern Barbecue 9.5 oz Bag for $2.98" your scenario quickly breaks down into the points I discussed which is why I brought them up.

In more Amazon terms someone is going to search "tablet" not "New Apple iPad Air (10.9-inch, Wi-Fi, 64GB) - Rose Gold (Latest Model, 4th Generation) sold by Apple". Even if searching "Apple iPad" I get Amazon Fire tablets high in the results.
This seems like a useful enough tool, but, good God, could they have picked a worse name? It doesn't rank for "typedef" on the first page of Google, and, while it does rank for "typedefs", it's in the middle of a bunch of stuff that is mostly explaining how typedefs work in C or C++.

It's reasonably easy to pick the thing that's related to computing if Google only shows a page of stuff that is obviously not programming-related. But, this is most likely going to get lost among the other computing-related items.
This leaves out the states that originally tipped the election to trump last time due to polling error of 4-7pts. Really its big polling errors in these states. The rest of the map doesn't look as bad. Popular vote also most likely off by estimated 4pts when all ballots counted, which isn't terrible.

Diff on final 538 -> current results

Wisc: ~8pt diff

Michigan: 4-6pt diff

PA: still counting but most likely 2-5pts off
The models didn’t take voter suppression by the Republicans into account.
What is actual practical harm if the polls fail to accurately predict an election?