skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
As far as I can tell, this is basically a toy project to show off the programmer's skills and practice doing something in Rust. It's also probably something that was fun to do and the programmer would probably like to show it off.

Treating it as some kind of alternative to Emacs or Vim is probably missing the point.
WSJ does it, too. And the NYT boasts rising subscription numbers, hah. I wonder what % of those are people who tried and failed to cancel.
Three election scenarios could change the fundraising landscape
"if the election were to happen today, what is the probability of each candidate winning?"

This was a correct characterization of Nate Silver's model at the time Nassim Taleb made his critique. Since then, Silver has changed what the probabilities in his prediction model mean. This change was (briefly) discussed previously on HN [1].

For the record, I think Taleb was an asshole, but an asshole with an entirely valid point in this debate. And I think Silver reluctantly and quietly took it on board, and then went on to use bolt-on fudge factors so that the time-dependent predictions of his model roughly look like the time-dependent predictions generated by the rigorously defined approach (option price theory) that Taleb was calling for.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24164814
Depends on what happens with crime and “quality of life.” People will step in human turd to get to a job that pays them $400K. They won’t do that to have access to great coffee shops. You’ll at best get the marginally employed bohemians if you don’t solve the crime and homelessness crises.
The unreasonable effectiveness of investment in open-source (2018)
US govt ups minimum H-1B tech salaries to $208,000 a year
It's someone's hobby project, they are probably having a great time designing and building it. I bet they've learned a lot doing so.
I don't believe this is accurate. NYT[0], HuffPo[1], Princeton Election Consortium[2], 538[3,4], and others did analyze their model's failures and update their models and methodologies in response.

0: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/16/upshot/presidential-foreca...

1: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pollster-forecast-donald...

2: http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/09/aftermath/

3: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-fivethirtyeight-gav...

4: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pund...
Totally agree, he comes off as a hack to me. But he’s famous and I’m not, so shrug
I would imagine so, yes. Hence the cultural implications of "beginning" or "origin" since the sun was no doubt viewed as the locus of life.

One of the interesting implications is how they view the past as east and the future as west (or conversely, the past as in front of you and the future as behind you). I'm not precisely sure I yet understand why this is, but I wonder if it's a matter of visibility? e.g., we can "see" the past but not the future.
Which+Day+is+the+Sabbath+According+to+the+Bible?
Good point.

I did a clean install and entered the Win7 key. Hadn't actually thought much beyond that.
This entire post is just unnecessary fear-mongering.

>Also, "500GB/mo.", at launch. Let's not forget those generous free limits can be slashed whenever it suits, and why they might be so generous for launch at all.

AWS has, to my knowledge, never increased the cost of any service after launch. They do, however, have a long history of reducing prices.

You also completely neglected to mention this part:

>Simply authenticating with an AWS account increases free data bandwidth up to 5 TB each month when pulling images from the internet. And finally, workloads running in AWS will get unlimited data bandwidth from any region when pulling publicly shared images hosted on AWS.

So yes, AWS gives some incentive to create an AWS account, and an even further incentive to use AWS services. All I can say to that is... duh?
Only if you squint at and reduce the actual matter enough so you can make a cute point.
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> several swing states were off by as much as 5-6 percentage points

Most state polls have margins of error ranging from 3 to 6 points. A 3-point MoE state poll is a really expensive poll.
What’s not true?
If by flat you mean that we don't have a bunch of bureaucratic hierarchy, that's true. We have Engineer 1, 2, and Senior on the individual contributor line, and Lead, Manager, Sr. Manager, Director, and Sr. Director on the personnel management line. It could probably be simplified further without losing scope of responsibility information. Right now we have about 50 individual contributors and 11 personnel managers. Keeping a ratio of 5 individual contributors or less per manager makes it possible to have real career development conversations regularly.

Senior Engineer carries high expectations around scope, impact, and autonomy. In other words, Seniors have a lot of responsibility, are expected to move mountains regularly, and operate with relatively little direction.
Right, the main model intends, in fact, to be predicting the probability of various outcomes when the election is actually held, that's why there is accounting for non-poll fundamentals (economy and other things) that are observed to influence poll changes over time that phase out as time runs out for them to move the polls.
The reason this comment is probably being so poorly received is that, as users, we have to look no further than the Adblock Plus shitshow. That was a pro-privacy/pro-user addon that was acquired and then silently started tracking users.

We can't trust you in the mean-time because we have hard proof that we should never trust addon publishers, especially where "free" plugins are concerned.

You need to figure out what your monetization is ASAP.
I don't know much about Taleb, but one problem I've always had with Silver is that he's very smug about this models but they often enough don't work out. Then when they don't work out, instead of reflecting on his models to improve them (at least publicly,) he just tells people they don't understand probability or his models. His sports models are -especially- bad; no better than a coin flip in some instances. I know there are a ton of Silver fanboys, but surely you can agree he has a pretty big ego, which always makes me take him with a grain of salt. When it comes to politics his former work with Obama's campaign and DailyKos also make me question if he can be truly unbiased in his predictions, but that's a separate issue.
It's no longer a hobby project when you have the most prominent section of your README comparing your project to a bunch of other mainstream software and you're arguing for why people should use your project over those.

It's not a hobby project when you've shipped your Brew into Core and reserved a name.

At that point, we get to make the apples to apples comparisons.

Props to the Arch community for having the good sense to keep this in the AUR.
Djongo: Use Django with MongoDB Without Changing the Django ORM
Tbh I've yet to find successful hedge funds that try to reverse engineer stuff. It's just not worth the time for most of these companies.
Is this VISA-cap exempt role?
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So... Taleb is a like purist programmer (pick your favorite paradigm) and Silver is more like a pragmatist programmer that uses a "hybrid" language model?

There's values for both types in programmerdom, is there not the same for both in the world of statisticians?
If -- as you state explicitly -- 2038 might be 20 years away, how could it be closer than 2000? 20 is more than half of 38.
You did mention racism but I would also say racism was a driving force since before white flight. The government precursors to Fannie mae and Freddie mac wouldn't back mortgages that banks created in redlined areas. And the precursor to HUD created segregated public housing, including in the west. The Federal government was pushing redlining and segregation in housing since at least the Great Depression. A lot of this is covered in "The Color of Law" by Richard Rothstein.
These days I'm working on log files sized around 300mb. Vim is slow and some times stop responding. Geany edior works most of the time. Do you guys have any recommendations?
Yeah, but I also kind of get it. I think a but of bread to soak up the pie gravy could be quite nice! I would probably butter the buns though for the initial bite!
"Popularity sucks when I don't approve"
The same is true of pg, but his discoveries seem obvious only in hindsight.

(I’m objecting to “the discoveries are obvious” as a putdown. The simplest discoveries are some of the hardest. Though I doubt this matters for political pundit analysis.)
>> The whole argument is sort of pointless from an intellectual/academic perspective. It's a war of public personalities more than anything else.*

> ...he's very smug...

Right, it's just dueling personalities.
I am one of those. I really want to degoogle but everything from my phone to my work depends on Google. The one thing I have done is stopped using Chrome on my laptop. But even then I have to use it occassionally because some websites won't behave properly in Firefox.
Frequentists miss the obvious stuff all the time, Taleb is not smarter, it's other people who are tied in dogmatic thinking
You covered it perfectly, thank you!
> and yet they keep growing.

They're obviously making up their numbers, probably by 10-100x.

Steam is somewhere between 95-105m real MAU, and publishes only real numbers on its games. I know lots of Steam users, many more than 5. I know zero Brave users. Really, there's no way it is anywhere near as popular as they claim.

> "The average CTR (click-through rate) for a Brave Ads campaign is 9%, well above the industry average of just 2%"

Again, another huge red flag. There's nothing special about Brave browser. It just means there is some adversary, like bots, clicking ads, or they are lying.

I'm sure people will downvote this, or talk about whom they know uses Brave. Whatever. I would love to see a real audited number here.
My DM: "You're going to try to hit this guy with your bare hands, even though you have +0 strength?"

Me: "Does a 17 hit?"

My DM: "His armor class was 16. It was supposed to be impossible for you to hit him with a d20. I have just witnessed the permanent death of the dungeon mastering industry in Faerûn. I will now cope on Twitter, goodbye."
“if I tell you an event has a 0% chance of occurring, I cannot change my mind and tell you tomorrow it now has a 50% chance of occurring. Otherwise I shouldn’t have told you it has a 0% chance in the first place”

I think this is the key to Taleb’s argument, and it’s pretty damning for Mr Siver.

If there’s high uncertainty, you can’t say whether someone’s probability to win is low. The uncertainty widens the probability.

For example,
Say I told you there’s a 2% chance it will rain Monday next year in New York
- This would _have_ to be a bogus prediction. So much could happen until then. I have _high_ uncertainty. There’s no way that uncertainty is accounted for with 2%
Whose models are better? There have been years where Nate Silver's model has called every single one of the 50 states correct as far as which POTUS candidate they'd vote for. See: https://mashable.com/2012/11/07/nate-silver-wins/

He's not perfect (for instance, I think calling the 2016 model too certain early on is valid and I think some other people have basically equivalently-good models, but are less well known), but if confidence is smugness, then he has a right to be.
Gödel encoding expands your options considerably.
Weather != Climate
And salary changes and income taxes.
The statement you quoted from the article (which is basically Taleb's criticism of Nate Silver) is not correct, the FiveThirtyEight prediction models are explicitly not answering the question "if the election was held today, what would happen". There are models like that on FiveThirtyEight, but the main question being answered is who is likely to win the actual election on the day it is held.
> Nano is an editor that is very simple to grasp due to its intuitive key bindings such as “Ctrl+S” to save and “Ctrl+?” for the help menu etc.

I don't think that's describing nano or pico, at least, no version I've ever used had those keys doing useful stuff. Maybe this is supposed to reference some other editor?
The point of premise 2 is that an 80% probability in late June implies a very high level of confidence. Confidence that doesn't seem intuitively reasonable. I would say that few rational individuals would have taken a bet with 4 pays 1 odds that Biden would win on July 1. It would not be a very safe bet, because of the likelihood of unknown random events.

Therefore, what Nate's model was predicting in July probably wasn't the probability of Biden winning on November 3rd. That doesn't mean the model's not useful, but if it is trying to predict what you think it is, then it's overconfident.

As a non-huge fan of Taleb, and as actually a big fan of Silver, I think Taleb is right here.
You're going to get extremely biased answers based on how any local group defines corruption. People from Western countries are highly sensitive to corruption, even soft corruption (e.g. some politician introduces his kid to a constituent who is a business person in order to get an internship). Ask people in highly corrupt countries if that's corruption and you'll get a very different answer (my sister-in-law, who is from a developing nation, would call that leveraging your network).

Add on top that it's perception. In western countries how many people have direct experience with political corruption? Their views are going to be heavily influenced by media coverage.

And then add on top anti-corruption measures. If your gov't prosecutes corruption aggressively, it will seem like there is more of it, versus a country that just ignores it. If it's not in your face, you'd probably say your country is not that corrupt. When in fact the country that more aggressively fights corruption is probably less corrupt than one that doesn't.
If you're not editing them, then lnav is what you need: http://lnav.org/
> The same is true of pg

Y Combinator is a success. I find PG’s writings fantastic, but sure, some of it is more good writing than concept building.

Taleb has no Y Combinator. His hedge fund failed. He’s just a talking head. That removes an element of grounding from his words.
Also pretty cool that AnyDesk is created by the original developers of TeamViewer.
Years ago a friend had a problem like that, I suggested janky old programmers notepad 2. Which worked for him.
I'd love for it to be true. Tools written in a programming language with modern tooling make customizing it a lot more accessible.
Yeah, I'll go with Snowden. It's false.
Trying to retrofit "we guarantee this really came from this person on this date" features onto server-to-server SMTP transport is a losing game in my opinion.

I've been running smtpd on the Internet since 1996, for ISP purposes.

DKIM is all fine and good, and a beneficial thing as part of a multi pronged anti spam approach, and for the general health of the Internet.

But it's not meant to be used with rotating a key every day. My worry is that some hacked up setup like this will provide people with a sense of false confidence that shouldn't exist.

Email is still like a postcard, not a sealed envelope.

I would consider it a very poor idea to have a set of automatic scripts messing around with the MX records or DKIM records on the domain zonefiles on my set of authoritative-only nameservers. Those things aren't meant to change often.

All of the considerations involved in setting up and running your own smtpd in a highly reliable manner in the year 2020 (not just pointing your MX records to office365 or gsuite and calling it a day)...

Yes you should run DKIM. You should pay attention to stuff like DMARC, SPF, your IP space reputation, proper configuration of your smtpd, your own smtpd's configuration to discard incoming stuff based on RBLs and spamassassin, as I have my postfix system set up to do. But ultimately server to server SMTP in the year 2020 is a hack job piled on top of a hack job.

There is no need to start doing things that require you to set very low TTLs on your domain zonefiles and then blindly trust that every caching DNS resolver out there on the internet will respect that (breaking news: they won't! it will break mail delivery in new and amazing ways!).

If you want a proper cryptographically secured end to end communication method, it's not anything that speaks SMTP. Go use Signal to chat or something.
A properly conducted poll with 1000 respondents has a margin of error of 3.2%. There have been quite a few of these in battleground states this cycle.
IME junior engineers benefit from being physically around senior staff, but that's just anecdotal.
Your argument doesn't hold water at all. Today's blurb in the forecast page - "First, the forecast is now totally polls-based; that is, any advantage our forecast gave Trump for the economy or for being an incumbent is no longer factored in. Second, the uncertainty around how much the polls will change between today and Election Day is also no longer an issue." - that means Nate Silver is explicitly saying his forecast is always trying to predict what is going to happen on November 3.

Heres an alternative hypothesis that involves no fancy math just anthropology - Taleb is right that the stats don't make sense, but Nate is also not an idiot - it's just in his financial best interests to make a website that can throw out confidence inducing pseudonumbers that will make people like us visit it every few hours for months at a time every two years. Perhaps he knows perfectly well the farce he's pulling (at least at a fundamental level though he might have convinced himself otherwise as academics always do) but just plays the game to make sure he's relevant. And thus, we are all the idiots.
The problem is not that they give incentives. It's why they give incentives. Why do they want marketshare? It's simple, they're a business, they want to milk you for money.

And like their forebears they understand well that the more they lock you into their solutions the more likely you are to keep paying for money even when you're mad at them for something they inevitably do that you don't agree with.
Microsoft release preview of Lobe training for machine learning
I quit my 6 figure tech sales job to start a software company
Now try canceling your idevice for a competitor and Apple will change your messages to white text on green so none of your friends can read them easily (due to the distribution of retinal cone cells).
One of the selling points for Vim and Emacs is that they are pretty impressive at raw text editing, having "simple, intuitive" keybindings like nano seems to go against this goal?
Oh the horror of a business that wants to make money off of the services they are offering!

Do you work for a company that just gives away all of their services and products for free, or...?
What is your criteria for saying "his models don't work out"? If he says "candidate A has a 90% chance of winning", and then they don't win, that doesn't mean his model was wrong. In the same vain, if the 90% candidate won, it also doesn't mean his model was correct either.

You have to look at a lot of his predictions, and see if the percentages match up.

When you say his models don't work out, are you saying you have done that analysis and found that his percentages don't match the results? If so, I would love to see that analysis.
That assumes all services talk to all other services directly. a) they probably don't, and b) message busses can help a lot.
Before Netflix and iTunes/Spotify, people were convinced that nobody would ever pay for movies and music on computers ever again.

Turns out a product more convenient than piracy was worth people paying money for. Now there are 18 streaming services and piracy rates are climbing again.

Ebbs and flows.

Open source software is amazing but infrastructure development is a substantial part of any businesses development costs.

AWS offers higher level abstractions - for a fee.

In our industry people always take that option, until the cloud providers value proposition becomes no longer attractive, and open source innovation flourishes again.

AWS makes really good stuff, there is value in that.
> This entire post is just unnecessary fear-mongering.

You perhaps missed the bottom 30% suggesting there may be better options.

Docker's registry protocol treats layers essentially as opaque slabs, as any user will no doubt be aware, where update of a single timestamp or byte of a file could mean the reupload (and download) of a potentially unlimited amount of data. While that architecture has its perks (simplicity, sequential IO patterns suited to the magnetic disks of 2013), there are obvious downsides.

We have plenty of systems just like Docker capable of managing Docker-like file counts without the obscene bandwidth abuse, we just don't call them registries. They have names like Perforce, Subversion and even (some Microsoft variant) of Git. Eliminating the data gravity angle is impossible, but reducing its potency by several orders of magnitude is not only possible but has already been done repeatedly in many popularly deployed systems.

This is not to suggest replacing registry with Git, but perhaps some graph-like manifest format combined with some new "fetch-multiple-objects" protocol verb would be all required to bring the cost of running a registry down to essentially a non-issue.
Just a PSA: home insurance companies have been dropping fire coverage in CA so quickly now that there's a state-mandated stay to prevent them from doing it for a year.

No word what the plan is after the stay but I would be cognizant of any insurance plans that you get.
Idea: Inflation Taxation