skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Meh. If you fit a model and don't explicitly constrain against "un-physical" results like negative correlations, you'll end up with them.

Constraining against them won't improve your models fit (usually by definition), and it doesn't always improve robustness (at least for situations near average)-- because they're acting to debias the model in ways that you otherwise don't have enough degrees of freedom to address.

A negative correlation here is also potentially historically supported, in the sense that sometimes DEM/GOP candidates are philosophically reversed in some way relevant to the state. As in, "The only way a GOP would get elected in X is if they had the DEM position on subject Y which would make them lose state Z, who cares as much about that subject as X but in the opposite direction."

Now-- it doesn't seem likely case in this election (e.g. Trump is not (currently) a massively pro-choice republican), so it probably shouldn't apply here-- but it's isn't hard for me to imagine how a negative correlation might show up out of the historical data.
They could be using zinc-air batteries (like those used in hearing aids) which deplete whether they're used or not.
There is a guy in Japan who uses a vacuum on these wasps. I think you want to use the suit with these guys:

https://youtu.be/1WkS5fyXDqU
This is just Frequentism vs Bayesianism, right?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations
You treat the forecaster as the dice, not a particular forecast from them. You can measure their forecasts with reality.
What is ".txt format"? I'm genuinely curious what they went with here, but don't want to download 36 GB to find out. There isn't a .txt standard, is there?

I would hope for UTF-8, but given the old-school, Windows-y .txt extension, it could just as easily be Windows-1252 or something. LF or CRLF line endings?
This is basically the frequentist vs bayesian debate. Looks like you are firmly in the former camp :)
Following the scientific method, you need to make testable claims for your hypothesis to hold any merit. All testable (well, quantifiable) claims made by Taleb have been shown to be wrong here. This means whatever proposals Taleb makes are either unfalsifiable or wrong, both of which are not very useful for advancing scientific understanding.

To be clear, not following the scientific method does not mean your hypothesis must be wrong. But to convince the community at large, that's what you should do.
Funny how many people believe Taleb’s claims are true even though no ones, including Taleb himself could prove them. On the contrary, at least the author of the article could point out specifically where Taleb’s claims cannot hold water.
The first problem with the model is it grossly missed the last election. I still think it’s good reading.
Insurance companies have relatively low caps on what they have to pay out per accident though. The figures here would be much higher.
Yes. And many people agree that's bad. I'm not saying this doesn't happen. I'm saying that "High IQ is correlated with lower crime rates and higher test scores" shouldn't be the end of the discussion when people are arguing that IQ should be used to divide populations in public policy and corporate behavior.
How a Company Made $71,145 in One Day Selling Nothing
It specifies the wire format and how it must be interpreted, but deliberately leaves a big footgun in place where there was no need to do so.
The beauty of git is that YouTube-dl is backed up on all of the contributors’ machines, and they can easily push to a new head server.

Removing it from GitHub doesn’t kill it. Just moves it off of the most popular platform.
That's a pretty bold claim to make about essentially anybody in regards to the US presidential election. Not that I don't believe his account is even-handed and valuable, just that I'm curious what makes you say he has no dog in the fight.
Imho, the real outrage should be about Google/YouTube being so asymmetric (easy to upload, difficult to download). But I guess people consider this an impossible battle.
FiveThirtyEight has a page where you can choose winning states (condition on a certain outcome) and it will regenerate the prediction map, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-ma... This appears to be the what Andrew Gelman is also trying to do with their raw data.

At the bottom of the 538 page it says, " If you choose enough unlikely outcomes, we’ll eventually wind up with so few simulations remaining that we can’t produce accurate results. When that happens, we go back to our full set of simulations and run a series of regressions to see how your scenario might look if it turned up more often."

I interpret that as running a regression (linear?) and extrapolating it out to the tail where the conditioning is happening. This should eliminate the issue Andrew is seeing?
GLFW and SDL are looking at using libdecoration to draw CSDs. Yes it's an additional dependency but most applications won't need to worry about it unless they need it.

The way GNOME is built it's not really possible architecturally for them to support SSDs in Wayland. Maybe that will change if they ever get around to redesigning mutter and gnome-shell, but I wouldn't wait for it.
His master's thesis seems relevant here: "Censorship-resistant Collaboration with a Hybrid DTN/P2P Network" (where DTN is "Delay-Tolerant Network"). Also relevant in relation to today's other headline about GitLab blocking access in Iran.

Paper & slides: https://phihag.de/2012/mt.pdf & https://phihag.de/2012/mtpres.pdf
PrivateWin10 is a privacy or telemetry app with a firewall manager
Secrets and spies: Behind the doors of the GCHQ
I’ve noticed that “presently” (in the meaning “soon”) is one such indicator for post-WWII English.

British novels written in the 1950s consistently use “presently” to indicate a short passage of time. In the following decades it seems to have been removed from editors’ style guides and replaced mostly by plain old “soon”.
This is a terrible sentiment. You aren't a mental health expert. I have seen more than a couple of people come back from the edge because of medications. We use pills for other issues like heart disease, diabetes, etc and people live a relatively normal life. The brain is just an organ. Sure some people would be better off without medication, but lots more would be dead or locked up in a mental institution. Lots of people have chemical imbalances and no matter how much "lie back and tell me your problems" they get they will never be well. Are medications over-prescribed I'm sure that's true in some cases as well.
It would be really nice to detect the user's secondary DNS.

I'm not sure failing will do that, but it might reveal interesting things anyway. I'll add it to the to-do list.
> “red-pilling some normies” — internet slang for a propaganda technique in which distorted, fabricated, or skewed information is used to further a self-determined “truth.”

True to form, Snopes imparts to its readers an inaccurate and misleading understanding of something.

"Red-pilling some normies" means "showing people the nature of reality as it truly is". It comes from the movie "The Matrix" where Neo is given the option to take a blue pill and stay in simulated reality or a red pill which will cause the machines to unplug him from the simulation and allow the members of Zion to come and rescue him in the real world.

Here Snopes is being lampooned for a tactic in which Snopes assigns some claim a "Mostly False" label (which is what everyone processes and then moves on from) but then when you read the content of their article it tends to be some trivial technicality or some subjective opinion upon which they assign the label where the actual substance of the claim is substantially true.

Satire and pointed mockery is among the most effective means of taking down a tyrannical structure. It breaks through people's unconscious responses which, for good reason, is usually to defer to some authority and gets them to engage consciously with some idea which may challenge the legitimacy of that authority. Mockery breaks down the sense of authority itself.
Suicide rates and mental health conditions are skyrocketing. The effect of all this push about "mental health" has been to convince more and more people to believe they have mental health problems. And adopting this label does not seem to benefit their lives.
There are so many valuable videos that I would not rely Youtube (and the uploaders) to maintain those videos permanently on their site. For instance interviews with Niklas Luhmann or Feynman or Steve Jobs or Karl Popper and many many more.

It is our right to have tools that could be used for different reasons. It is our right to be able to act not lawful. Just go after those citizens who break law, not those who COULD break law.

Just because a knife can kill someone it's not taken from the market. Or just because a pen and paper could be used to write a demagogic text we don't disallow these tools.
> GLFW, GLEW, SDL, etc. all have to implement CSDs now if they wanna work with Wayland.

I honestly don't understand what you're talking about here? If you want to get a window on the screen with OpenGL or Vulkan you don't implement anything special for Wayland.

In fact with Vulkan+Wayland, it's fairly easy to do it without any third-party dependencies, with OpenGL you'll probably need EGL which is a Khronos dependency. Here's some slightly outdated example code [1].

[1] https://gist.github.com/Miouyouyou/ca15af1c7f2696f66b0e01305...
Are you referring to the 2016 election? If so, you are wrong. 538 gave Trump a higher chance of winning than pretty much every independent pollster.
You still can. Either apt install or pip install ate unafected. Might not be the newest version though.
I have to agree. Putting examples of copyright infringement in the README and test cases was irresponsible. What were they thinking? Time for a less reckless group of people to work on a replacement.
> without the dreck of social media

It's pretty easy to not install those. Buying a product isn't a good solution to a lack of willpower.
And Zoom is also absolutely corrupt malware. Obviously, you can be the judge for yourself, but I personally don't care if my malware has chromakey--it ain't ever getting close to my PC.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/apr/02/zoom-tech...

The OS vendor needs to push fixes to uncorrupt people's PCs because Zoom installs a backdoor to spy on webcams? That's worse than terrible--that's criminal.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/10/apple-silent-update-zoom-a...
I don't know what you're trying to say, outside of some vauge attempt to avoid admitting a mistake.
I'm surprised that a lot of people almost worship the 538 model, when there is a better model with more competent people behind it. Economist is also more open about how their model works and it's open-source. After reading the methodology I was pretty impressed.

Edit: Why am I being downvoted?
Vague personal anecdotes doesn't mean they are not from the real world.

You're taking someone else's valid criticism of the state of the therapy methods available today and taking it personally as well as unwarrantedly attributing it to a lack of sympathy.

You fail to understand that the goal of criticizing the therapy method is precisely so we may find ways to improve it.
Yup. HTC announced that they're working on standalone headsets, but right now all they've actually released is some 3d renderings. After buying a Quest, I have a bit of a dilemma because I never want to be tethered again, but I also don't want to support what FB is currently doing
I'm with you here. I think your list is pretty close to mine. The only exception is whatsapp and maps. I want to be able to navigate and I'm fine with just a list of directions. I'd add podcasts as a must have as well.
They're still a problem: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O4ldpyIE5t4

Interestingly, that video suggests that some beekeepers actually prefer the aggressive, "africanized", bees as they can be more productive than less aggressive bees in the right situation. But they're a public health hazard, so most beekeepers choose to euthanize more aggressive hives to deliberately breed calmer, safer, bees.

This video also suggests that the high level of aggression wasn't optimal in at least some areas, so it's being evolved out and the bees are becoming less aggressive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psBomn2cPNw
Vague personal anecdote's versus hutzlibu's vague personal anecdotes.

Quite frankly, the pills work. A lot of people would unable to lead normal lives without them.
a) During the early stages of the pandemic there was serious under-testing, non-serious cases were not counted

b) A treatment protocol has been established, dexamethasone, Vitamin D and antihistaminics like cimetidine are actually helpful

c) Death is a lagging indicator, it takes about a week to become symptomatic, another week to see if you need to be hospizalized, and another week to see if you will likely die, If you are meant to die you die around the end of week 4.
Sounds more like gambling than science; you're making a one in six bet that you can dupe me. More seriously, I would not accept your claim with evidence as weak as that. Roll the dice a few more times and then I'll credit your claim. Rolling the dice only once when you could just as easily roll them a dozen times is junk science.

Incidentally, this trick is something magicians sometimes do. Sometimes when a trick has gone wrong they'll make a wild guess. If they're right, the audience is impressed. If they're wrong, they'll brush it aside with some joke and the audience won't notice/mind much. This works for things card guessing tricks and puedo-psychic/cold reading stuff.
Link on current US funding:https://theintercept.com/2019/10/26/syrian-rebels-turkey-kur... As other comments saying, this info always lags a few years. But there's never been any official reckoning when these details come out, so no reason to assume it has stopped. See also US promotion of Elliot Abrams, despite his connection to the EL Mozote massacres.

On your second point, I want to be clear that I'm not defending the Iranian gov't. I disagree with the use of sanctions that disproportionately effect the least powerful in there society, by design. This is compounded by the fact that the reasons for these sanctions are not moral violations, as the US and its allies behave in much the same way, but instead about international power.
I wonder why they didn't use an insecticide on the nest. The exterminator I hired used a powder on the entry to our attic and the Yellowjackets carried it into the nest and it wiped out the whole thing brilliantly (and we sealed the hole). A targeted application would require very little product. With a powder, it would also kill any insects that got away, and it could trace/damage other nests if the hornet moved to another colony. It seems to me a vacuum would be less thorough, and I would think they'd want to be very thorough in this instance, maybe even to the point of doing both.
I stopped using zoom after they shut down accounts because people were discussing the Tiananmen Square Massacre.

That they would continue to support the CCP’s interests under a banner of “operating within the laws of the country” is not a surprise.

> “Zoom is committed to supporting the open exchange of ideas and conversations”

This is total nonsense and is demonstrated by their actions - Zoom is an unethical company rationalizing bad behavior and people should avoid using them.

I know their software is the best (webex is awful), but they can’t be trusted to even care about doing the right thing.

Longer form thoughts on this: https://zalberico.com/essay/2020/06/13/zoom-in-china.html

I’m not sure why organizations across the globe trust a company with the majority of its devs operating out of China and vulnerable to CCP influence. There’s a reason the client is banned at Google, and elsewhere in USG.

It’s not comparable to companies operating in western democratic countries.
> I don't see any investigation of whether IQ can be altered through nurture (which I think it can).

Nurture accounts for 20-43% of the differences in adult IQ scores:

"Twin studies of adult individuals have found a heritability of IQ between 57% and 73% with the most recent studies showing heritability for IQ as high as 80%."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heritability_of_IQ
worked in video conference industry for a few years, those are not hard to implement at all.

what Zoom gets is what its CEO once described: they always think from the perspective of users, instead of listening form the marketing dept. That is, Zoom put customer and usability first, the rest(including security...) second.
that explains it. chrome comes up as google. However, I'm not located in the US.... (a good 10k kilometers away)
The thing about this election is that what if Trump himself is some sort of wildcard that can't really be properly forecasted in the polls?

Why is there so much fascination with polls to begin with? I understand that there are betting markets, but it seems sort of silly. If you had a 100% accurate poll, for instance, then what would be the purpose of the actual election?
Not sure if it’s wrong to put this here, but here is a link to their election forecast.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

You can compare this to the 538 model and see where these two teams and forecasts disagree.
I have found Jitsi meet to be not only a suitable replacement, but for video streaming quality, superior.
‘All the resources’ make you nauseous? Seems like a weird reaction.

Washington State department of agriculture’s budget is public information; they spend about a quarter of a billion dollars a year on all their programs. I can’t imagine this particular operation is making much of a dent in that overall spend. According to the captions of those photographs, they have entomologists and pest control specialists on staff already. Salaries are also public. Sven Spichinger, shown in one of those pictures, Managing Entomologist, is on $87,000 a year - whether he’s hunting for murder hornets or not, presumably. There are three different levels of ‘Pest Biologist’ job in the department. It kind of looks like this is a project that is taking up the time of a few people who they already had on staff, to deal with exactly this kind of problem.

Does all government spending make you nauseous, or only when it’s visibly helping?
From the plots Andrew posted, it looks like the problem is not just sample size and that (some) individual state pairs have inverse correlations, e.g. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/20...
I think he is not talking about the election in general but referencing the "fight" between the 538 model/Nate Silver vs. the Economist/Andre Gelman.
Do you have an actual precedent to cite or are you just speculating?
To all those with critiques: remember that 'RFC' doesn't stand for 'Fully-Baked Internet Standard,' it's 'Request For Comments.'

Well, the IETF is volunteer-based, so if you feel strongly enough, go submit a comment! :)
Andrew Gelman designed the 538 model in 2007.

Nate Silver authored an adjustment to polls used in that model. Polls have more impact if they are more representative of statewide turnout among demographic things he chose like “black” and “low income.” This is why his predictions were so accurate for Obama’s 2008 and 2012 elections, and likely why they were so inaccurate in 2016.

Gelman’s own grad student is the only person to have academically published this approach, in a paper about polling Xbox Live users.

These guys sort of make a thing that is the same in many more ways than it is different. Why not just share the code is the biggest question?
Probably ironically, none of the stuff on that site will load in my phone's browser unless I turn off content blockers
Is there a particular reason why you chose AZW3 instead of KFX? I'm no expert but it was my impression that KFX is more modern and has better options on the Kindle.
We're not talking about the justice system here..
> > 1. Blocking Iranian IPs, as opposed to accounts, is almost certainly over-compliance.

> So blocking Iranian IPs is fine?

The person you responded to, in the very sentence you quoted, said no, as this is "over-compliance".
It's a real good Java
Normally I would point out that income doesn't mean much, that we should focus on wealth instead... But the modern global economy is so bubbly that as soon as enough people retire or decide to actually start spending their money, most of that nominal wealth will quickly evaporate and so it's not really meaningful either.

The problem now is that a huge amount people who think of themselves as wealthy are thinking in nominal dollar terms, but there are so many of such people today, and they're so conformist in their investment and lifestyle choices that when they retire (likely all at the approximately same time, in approximately the same way), there is no way that the real economy will be able to support their retirement without driving up salaries/incomes and inflation.

Economic conformity is fragility.
Wildly spitballing here: what if somebody took the entire repository and stuck it in a place or places that are secure from takedowns. What if, after that happens, another person set up a public repo called, I dunno, ld-ebutuoy. This repo would contain no source code but would allow collaboration, PRs, issues, and so forth.

Each time there's a push, only the changed files would appear in the repo. Both the private and public repos would be active simultaneously in order to do a build. In other words, your project would have two folders with git active, and the build would combine those folders as part of the CI/CD pipeline. Every now and then the process of taking all of the current master branch and moving it offline would happen again. In this way, you'd never have a public repo that would have anything more than a few files in it.

In this scenario, the only things that are being hosted publicly are tiny bits of source code that are changed in order to keep the base updating. And even then, on a regular basis they would be deleted.

tl;dr: simply because you have to take down a repo doesn't mean you have to take down a location for publicly developing F/OSS software. </speculation>
Eh, it’s not underspecified. It’s just… strangely specified, in a way that people will ignore and misparse. But then, if it had been specified in any other way people would have ignored and misparsed it too.
You're going for too big cards again. A single card doesn't need to answer absolutely everything there is about a red black tree. You want to ask about a single aspect of it per card.

The definition is "what is it?". There is nothing to understand here. It could be taught to a parrot or child to repeat this information.

What you're mentioning is a bunch of cards on top of that: how does a red black tree stay balanced on insertions? When is the self-balancing property of red black trees useful? When is it not? Etc etc.
You cannot answer this if you mistake a red black tree for another tree for example. It's essentially vocabulary.

Another one would be notations: what's the symbol for a cross product? Again, nothing to understand, but you must know it to work on actual math problems involving cross products.
Ask HN: Privacy Policy / ToS Generator
I'm interested in a privacy policy/ToS generator, preferably open source. Searching on Google produces a ton of ads.

My focus is the quality/readability of the final document from a user's perspective, other than -of course- compliance.

Any recommendation or good examples?
Eugenicists work backwards from a conclusion - that their race is superior. So they look for or invent measures that only their race exhibits. So why would they even measure height? They know other races can be just as tall their own race. So that measure is obviously disqualified.
One can take the necessary precautions to protect themselves and those around them without living in fear