skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Right, but 538 did account for such an error in coming up with their ~75/25% outcome chances. Had polling errors just been random, the overall prediction would have been more like 95/5%.

But their key insight is that polling errors are often correlated, and not just statistical sampling errors that can randomly offset in either direction.
Hello. For a while I've been adding links to this repo in my spare time. Machine learning is a fast moving field, and new techniques are constantly emerging in research. While the formulation of an ML concept as it's used today may have diverged or evolved from its original presentation, I've found it helpful to track down the papers which introduced common ML concepts, from things as general as Lasso regression to as specific as the papers which accompanied GPT1, 2, and 3.

Feel free to contribute. I'm open to suggestions on what to include as well as how to organize and present it. I hope it's a useful tool for people hoping to read up on the research behind various ML ideas.
Yes, that's my point?

EDIT: Ah, you mean the order is different :)
It's hard to pick which piece of misinformation is the biggest offender. For example, the prominent discussion of "Global Solar Minimum" on each page. This scare text flies in the face of the current thinking of the scientific community.

From Wikipedia:

"The current scientific consensus, most specifically that of the IPCC, is that solar variations only play a marginal role in driving global climate change,[79] since the measured magnitude of recent solar variation is much smaller than the forcing due to greenhouse gases.[88] Also, average solar activity in the 2010s was no higher than in the 1950s (see above), whereas average global temperatures had risen markedly over that period. Otherwise, the level of understanding of solar impacts on weather is low.[89]"

I guess if you think the IPCC is a cabal of Satan-worshipping Communists, then this brief analysis is suspect. But show me anywhere a reputable study that links solar variations to "drastic climatic and geophysical changes to our planet. These include increased galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), seismic activity, and volcanism" as IAF claims.
Jeff Wayne's Musical Version of the War of the Worlds – Full Show
That's quite strange.
Rust is system level language.

Most web stuff need no memory management and can happily live with GC or even with giant memory footprint and reboot once a day.

Ruby is direct competition. One of two PHP major web frameworks borrowed everything they could from it.
Even PHP is on Ruby bandwagon .... XD
Bad tech debt will ruin your software, but good tech debt is a smart investment in your business. It takes a good team working together to balance their "tech debt budget" against the other revenue needs of the company.

If I've run on Version X of some DB software for a while, and tomorrow Version X + 1 is released, yes, I should recognize that staying on Version X is tech debt. But that may absolutely be the right thing to do for now.
Poverty guideline for 2 kids is $26k

But who is getting 30k anyways? If that is the stipend of one grad student, you need to double it to get the household of two grad students, and then it is over the median household income. The median income is not poverty
Don't Let Your Budget Spook You
Regarding TypeScript, I think it's important to point out that we have a working PR in the TypeScript repository that we've been maintaining for about a year now. It's not so much special casing as being ahead of trunk. I still hope the TypeScript team will show interest eventually and we'll be able to streamline the development.

[1] https://github.com/microsoft/TypeScript/pull/35206
> There is absolutely still a difference between Mozilla and Google

General attitude of these corporations is one thing, but is there really a difference between Firefox and Chromium w.r.t. privacy?
I can’t tell if it’s a clickbait headline or just bad article writing.
Very much so. Even between minor versions, if you want to have the same behavior (which can have practical difference), you want to ensure you use the same solc version.

Syntax and functionality has also been changing quite a bit between versions (at least until 0.7). Solidity is not yet 1.0.
Even more precisely the vast majority of Chinese people are unified. They are patriots who think China is the best country ever and all the rest are just jealous of their success. Downvote me if you want, but that’s certainly the look that CCP is happy to push.

Comparatively the People of the West are divided. Not just the US but also Europe. They are divided not just by politics, but also by their world view, and few have anything good to say about their home countries.

This right here is the biggest wedge China can exploit. If they move as one while the West gets mired in debates then China will win.
“The Importance of Being Candid” and the CCP's 'Magic Weapon'
I do about 5€/month on an astrology app on the Play Store [1], and I did 50€ once on my SaaS astrology web app [2]. The rest of my web apps [3][4][5] give me 0 (zero) per month..

I'm now planning on starting a python development blog, and I hope I can sell some courses if I'm able to drive an audience. I teach CS (next year part-time) on a local college and I have some tutorials and lab exercises for my students (some of which I shared at the full-speed python ebook [6])..

Edit: forgot that the fine guys at educative.io send my a monthly payment of about ~100€ for the full-speed python course at their platform [7]. I guess I'm much better at coming up with programming tutorials than with business ideas..

Some day my luck will improve! :)

[1] https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.flatangle....

[2] http://elements.flatangle.com/

[3] http://mockrest.com/

[4] https://cronbeats.com/

[5] http://mailaday.com/

[6] https://github.com/joaoventura/full-speed-python/

[7] https://www.educative.io/courses/full-speed-python
Denmark and Switzerland are objectively capitalist systems and have little to no state control of the means of production.
> China could just as easily form alliances.

Can you please elaborate? I find this to be an Achilles heal for China. If there is a bipolar world with US on one side and China leading the other, who do you think will ally with China? I can see Russia, Iran and North Korea but not really anyone else.

In the US camp, I see Western Europe + NATO countries, Australia, NZ, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and Israel. Do you think China can match that alliance?
> Aren't the root issues as simple as that?

Not at all. The '"nice" thing about a totalitarian king/emperor/dictator is that improvements in prosperity come quickly' has historically almost never been the case.

It is actually quite anomalous for a non-democracy to see these sorts of quality of life improvements.

> easy example: Mao

Mao is not such an easy example, given that there is a continuity of government from Mao to today.

> also not the first time that we saw a powerful Chinese totalitarian regime make the country very wealthy and then unwealthy again.

??? No past Chinese regime has the numbers that the modern CCP is getting. Just look at the number in China in absolute poverty over the last 100 years.

Honestly, your comment seems remarkably ill-informed.
Yeah, and then you need to modify the client to use that server, have everyone you communicate with install that client, and also not brand it as "Signal" because it has nothing to do with the Signal network anymore, and you can't communicate with "regular" Signal users.

So, from the point of view of anyone using the Signal service, the utility of the source is near-useless.
There is no twisting going on here. No gotchas.

You are saying that you don’t care about police dying.

I could point out that police are people, so what you are doing here is to dehumanize anyone who you consider to be police.

However, I accept that you wouldn’t recognize that argument, because you then go on to say, that they can quit whenever they want.

I.e. they can avoid being killed by simply making the choice not to be Police.

This is the very definition of political violence - threatening the lives of people who support institutions you don’t like.
FYI, because this is a new account I've had to vouch for your comments, because they were all showing up as dead.
Bayarea Hoe Leila Exposed
Really impressed with the ability to extract a narrative from foot prints about a woman and a toddler.
Wait, there is a fs/promises module? I still use Bluebird.promisify in every recently project :facepalm:
It sounds like your solution to the problem is to take away the ability to remove people from the system altogether, no? If that’s the case, then you open up a whole new set of problems. There are far easier and cheaper ways to guarantee legitimate access to banking than rebuilding and migrating the entire system.
Incorporating Tabular Data with HuggingFace Transformers for Better Fidelity
What Happened to Buffer's API?
"Can you point to some of the evidence you used to arrive at the conclusion that the high-tech civ is centered in the core, or that they're gating civilizations entering it?"

A high-tech civilization in the core is IIRC spelled out in A Deepness in the Sky because the planet there comes from the core. On its own that means nothing, but combined with A Fire upon the Deep it means there's more down there than the Upper Beyond realizes.

Gating civilizations entering it is a bit of my own interpolation. One alternative is that powers simply die out after 10 years because there is some reason they need to advance to the next level, but they're locked out by the Zones.

"BOTH the speed of computation AND the laws of physics (whether FTL travel and communication are physically possible)"

My read is that that is cause and effect, though, not two effects. The amount of computation you are allowed is limited; super high tech becomes impossible, then FTL, then our tech, then even any system that performs simple and meaningful mechanical computations. Even a car engine can be viewed as performing computations to stay running.

This is a particularly sci-fi element. I don't think it's immediately obvious how to separate the universe into "meaningful" computation and the sort of computation a stationary rock is "performing" as its atoms jiggle around, such that one can distinguish at the level of the laws of physics themselves between a rock and a car engine or other simple mechanical device. Then again, I'm not a superintelligent civilization with nearly unbounded resources and deeper access to the laws of physics than I have. (Arguably, under the circumstances, it could simply be an enormous computation of its own, in which they aren't doing it via clever rewrites of the universe, but basically by executive fiat, or, to put it another way, the standard may literally be "I know it when I see it" for some sufficiently intelligent "judge", rather than any sort of physical law.)
Education is often a financial inheritance in disguise. If dad pays for your K-12 private schooling and entire Harvard education, how is that practically different than a direct cash transfer?
"Yeast is very succesful entity but we dont want to become yeast" https://youtu.be/E7LMSZ2xsRs
I think poorly engineered is a better term than under engineered in this case, but I agree with you.

Logging is my go-to example for this sort of behaviour. People write stupid amounts of log statements in their code, so much that it’s hard to even read the code to understand what it does, in the hopes that it’ll make debugging easier. Use a damned debugger! Take a traffic dump! Use strace!

What’s more, it’s extremely rare that libraries provide logs themselves. So the actual complex parts of your application, like say the HTTP library or (God forbid) the TCP stack, can’t be debugged this way.

If you find yourself writing a bunch of statements like “DEBUG: updating balance from 1 to 2”, stop and write some tests instead.
Here's a video showing the scene in action: https://youtu.be/6OlenbCC4WI?t=373
You need a little more realpolitik in your life. Nations are absolutely competing with each other because we live in a world of limited resources. Recognizing this fact and wanting your nation to come out on top are very normal.
Fair point- I guess digitization was somewhat selfish. A centralized DB makes it easier when I’m trying to help them with something remotely, and the “Shared Vault” facilitates easy communal logins (Netflix, Hulu, etc...)
Technical debt is like credit card debt: it's high interest; it's not a huge issue if you use it wisely; and you have to track its usage and level against your total code/assets.

Like credit card debt, too many people turn around and they've got $20k of credit card debt or 20k LOC of tech debt.

I don't have too much of a problem with tech debt as long as: the benefit is clear; the debt is well understood; the payoff date/cost is planned. Just last night I was talking with a developer who works for me: "This way will require 5 queries instead of 1. Can you help me figure out this whacky ORM API to do it in 1?"; "Just do it as 5 right now and, as we learn more about the ORM API, we'll fix it later..." Tech debt: we get the product done faster; we've got a 1-5 line change to make (when we know how to make it); and we'll do so in a few months.
China’s Purchase Power Parity GDP (in other words, adjusted for exchange rate and local costs) is already higher than the US’s and is probably around 10-20 years from being equal on nominal dollars as well.

There’s no doubt China’s growth will slow due to an aging population, but they’re coming already from a MASSIVE population size advantage.

The West can counter by increasing immigration significantly (and probably pursuing pro-natalist policies as well), plus picking some of the best of what China is doing with investments in infrastructure and R&D while maintaining the freedom and vitalism that has helped the West in the past.
Apple under Tim enjoy short term gains and greed has blinded them. The company will soon start failing because of their anti-consumer and anti-environment culture. They create false image of themselves to be super friendly innovative brand for creative people, but the truth is far from this. Their products are designed to fail and to be only repairable by Apple. If your charging port dies on a new Mac, you cannot repair it yourself even if you have all required tools and skills. Their policy is essentially if it breaks you have to pay us through the nose or buy a new model. Then there is the anti-competitive Apple Store that is milking the iOS ecosystem and developers.
Central planning is not sufficient, but your comment doesn't show that it is not necessary.

Markets are fundamentally pretty different from when the US overtook GB as largest economy.
But why? It's 2020. Why not use SFTP? Or Samba? Or NFS? Or any number of other file transfer/sharing methods that don't involve FTP?

I truly don't understand why FTP of all things is still a) in use 2) of interest and 3) considered a valid approach anymore. Can somebody help me understand why you'd want to go this route?
iPhone 12 Teardown
Nevertheless, nobody is naming their kid "Wolf".
I like to think of Technical Debt like an accountant or CFO would think about Financial Debt.

It provides leverage to incur debt at early stages, incur too much and it can really come back to bite, but a startup that incurs no debt will struggle to grow.
Consider this: China can close their economy tomorrow and most of the world’s economies would crumble almost overnight. The supply chain of most developed and developing nations is primarily based in China. It would take decades in a developed country to build manufacturing capabilities at the scale China has currently.
I don't think actors and celebrities 'famous for being famous' are held in such high esteem anymore. I think that peaked in the oughties, and that the profession's renown's been in a slow decline since. This may in part be due to how replaceable and commoditized their industries have made them.

The average person may lust after famous person 'x', or be jealous of their resources. They may even follow them as a sideshow. But I've met very few people who want to be a celebrity, or admire more than one or two for their contributions to the world.

Celebrities may be able to capture our attention better, but put your average celebrity next to a reasonably successful entrepreneur, and ask the average person which is more praiseworthy, or admirable, and I think the entrepreneur will win 80% of the time (I say 80% of the time, because I'm certain a small number of high-level athletes and musicians break that rule)
Good luck building a phone outside of China.

https://www.diamandis.com/blog/shenzhen-global-hardware-capi...

Huawei had basically cornered the 5G technology, getting all competitors out of the market, but then Trump ended it.

China is buying strategically important technology companies from around the globe, like Kuka for example, and then moves the knowledge into their country.

If this trend continues, eventually we'll be in the same situation again where we have to imitate China, not vice versa. It's only a few hundred years ago when China sold extremely expensive porcelain to europe and we reverse engineered porcelain manufacturing (check out Johann Friedrich Böttger).
Thanks for the tip, but I meant more as in a general sense. I find it easier to remember things I learned from long-form text rather than comments (across many sites so it's not something only on HN). For example, I can remember things I learned from a book I read in 5th grade but I can't remember an interesting comment I read last week about irrational investors (at least not without looking it up) even though I think I gave the same amount of attention to both.
Countries that want money. When you ally with China you get fat stacks for infrastructure and other development projects that those nations (Africa, SEA, Eastern Europe) simply can’t afford on their own. Now you owe China favor so you will do as they ask when they come to collect.
Nowadays every CS student reads HN and blogposts like this one so by the time you end up having to work with them they're so indoctrinated into the "must write Enterprise(tm) ready code" mindset trying to teach them to be more relaxed is a real pain.
As others have pointed out, we users of Signal have no way of verifying that the code running on the server we connect to is the code they've released.

We are very much trusting the Signal team to do what they're saying (not logging, not leaking) and to make no mistakes in doing it (not logging accidentally, not leaking accidentally).

Which is in general a fair trade-off, but it is very much a trade-off, open audits notwithstanding.
> Apple also made great strides in ecological manufacturing and supplier accountability

Do you have evidence of that? It seems like it is quite the opposite. Apple prefer to destroy not working phones or Macs instead of repairing them. They make sure independent repair shops cannot repair any of their products and design them in a way so that they fail in short space of time, so customers can either pay for repair through the nose or buy a new Mac.
Hum, I think this is missing the main points. AirPods and Watches are gimmick. Nothing crazy innovative happened to the iPhones - apart the flatnessisation of iOS which in my opinion was a mistake - and Macs actually went backwards. The real Tim Cook test will be the ARM Macs. Can be game changing or it can’t sink Macs for good.
Who is Good Faith?
I think my wife's salary went up around 15-20% when she went from her final post doc position to her first associate professor position. Benefits didn't change since both post docs and associate professors are considered full employees of the university.
Make Windows Hard Again ( windows hardening tool)
Gentrification is often discussed as a phenomenon fairly specific to poor urban areas. A lot of the frequently mentioned problems of gentrification (displacing people and altering neighborhood character) don't really apply if a well-to-do techie buys (or builds) a house in, say, an enormous new Dallas suburb. The US has tons of land for wealthy people to build nice homes on without displacing anybody.
Causality and the Role of Philosophy of Science
Were there other theories that explained why the elementary particles have mass except for the Higgs?

Regardless, the point stands: we knew that something is missing from the Standard model, and we knew that it must exist in a very precise range of energy. If it didn't exist there, it could have called into question the whole SM.

In contrast, we don't know that there must be some kind of dark matter at the 100TeV scale. We know that one particular type that we have thought about could exist, but we have other candidates as well, and there are ways that the 100TeV prediction could also be moved to higher energy levels.

Meanwhile, we don't even know if dark matter is a kind of matter or a modification of the force of gravity or a problem with approximations of Einstein's equations used in practice etc.
I am not conviced. I mean, you wouldnt want/know what to do with 5 Billion (just looked up the LHC value, I am not sure what the amount of the new proposed accelerators would be) for these kinds of experiments, probably 100 Million would be plenty. If you think that Iter is 15 Billion then 5 Billion doesnt sound so much. (Also in the grand Scheme of things like 50 Billion is not much)
Interesting. I would say that John didn't build a solution that met all of the use cases that the business needed.

* To ensure accuracy of transactions, he should have built reporting to meet the needs of accountants.

* To support change, he should have kept his components separate and provided modest testing examples.

* To support developers and operations, he should have found and documented the external dependencies along with steps to verify that they are in place.

Whether product managers didn't uncover these requirements or the business didn't prioritize them, these aspects of the definition of "done" have more to do with thee environment the engineer is working in and less to do with his or her work.
Driving efficiencies in your AI process
> People have no actual freedom without economic freedom, and this system will create a sword of Damocles that will hang over each and every person.

You cannot use technology to fix a people (in this case, political) problem. Codify your rights in statute and executive governance authority. Using a distributed ledger ain't gonna fix your laws and courts.
The German word for "self-employed" is "selbstständig", which can also mean "independent". That would be the perfect word for describing nih's situation.
One major problem is that the people directing massive capital investments in the West are simply not as smart as the people directing massive capital investments in China.

If your nation gets rich earlier, then hereditary passing on of wealth will mean that in a few generations the people making the decisions about capital allocation are no longer your best and brightest. All you need to do is look at the difference between a scatter plot of "income vs. IQ in the US" and "wealth/assets vs. IQ in the US" to see at least part of the problem.

e: I'm downvoted, but concentration of hereditary wealth is definitely something dragging Western models down.
Porcelain isn't what runs the world. It's like citing how Italy has an expensive luxury good that they only know how to make there and therefore they are a top nation of the world, while they haven't been since the roman empire.
IT all depends on your needs. I'm using Libreoffice and Google Drive at home myself, as I'm cheap. But if I was doing more than the occaisional financial spreadsheet, or had lots of writing, or had lots of backups to do my need starts to change. At the end of the day, their success is evidence enough that people heartily agree with their value proposition in light of other offerings.