> I think most of these don't apply to dumbbells. At least not on a short term.

It does apply and is very pertinent, especially with ever decreasing operating capital in the small business sector; less predictable turnover/resupply rates and the likelihood that excess inventory turns into liabilities that can only be recovered via a liquidation process if they get it wrong is a risk that must be mitigated.

100% optimization in supply forecasting is an unobtainable panacea, but as has been seen with the asymmetric application to Gym Shutdowns, that varies by State, it reflects how uneven the reward could play out. Cost management is a huge part of Supply Chain and Logistics, so the constraints are obvious if you really take the time to analyze the situation.

I think all this underscores is the glaring single point of failure starring back at us with an entirely outsourced manufacturing infrastructure, and the inherit fallacy within it.

Gyms are open in my state, and I'm glad that they are because the buying all the machine and equipment that I use on a regular basis would require exceeding 10s of thousands of dollars, not to mention the pool and the still closed steam room/sauna I used prior to the shutdown.

> Now, the shortage seems to have kickstarted small shops dumbbell production lines (which are easier to put together than kettlebells)

Proving that the US can still manufacture despite the limited infrastructure and hollowing out of the means and resources to do so in the aftermath of Globalization.

I think what baffles me is how in my lifetime the notion of actual manufacturing-fabrication went from something that elevated so many in the US into the middle class came to be looked down upon and seen beneath an 'educated' person.

Especially because I actively participated in something where it was normal that undergrad to PhD mechanical and electrical engineers from Ivy Leagues Universities were working hand in hand with sometimes HS dropout mechanics and fabricators (on forums!) to develop better turbos and fuel mapping hardware/ECUs that were surpassing the gains of OEMs and even the well established aftermarket manufactures especially at time that it was being entirely under-served despite a significant demand that only increased with time. And then creating viable business models on those very same forums to serve as customer facing business with nothing more than a thread, a paypal account alongside a guy with tig welder a soldering gun.

Trump is an imbecile that predictably conned his way into office, and I hope he gets removed, despite the alternative not looking any better. But I really want the West to realize that the spotlight and rhetoric (mainly lip service) he put on China/CCP is warranted, and what occurred in Hong Kong is only a taste of what they're capable of and what they will do to their own kind (HK is Ethnically Han Chinese).

Reliance on such an oppressive regime is not sustainable and never ends well and the pitfalls and subsequent shortages of this centralized manufacturing infrastructure for even essential goods, like PPE, should be a much needed wake up call for manufacturing to return to at least their own continent(s).

> Or pick up 2 bricks. I did.

I resorted to filling 2 liter soda bottles and gallons with water for various lifts and isolation reps, it was a very dissatisfying experience from what I was used to but... it did help keep me somewhat fit, my upperbody PBs/Max lifts were only off by 15% by the time I went back to the gym when they reopened by mid Summer.

Sidenote: I just applied to a positions as Logistics Coordinator for a fitness equipment company, and they're currently on a 10-15 day delay on current orders. I kind of hope I can interview just to see the inner mechanics of what this all entails and where supply is being sourced from.