I am one of "those" tax lawyers. Insert disclaimer here.

1. I get tired of references to these "secrets of the rich" stories. There are no secrets. There are giant holes deliberately inserted into the Internal Revenue Code.

2. I get tired of snide comments about the Republicans. When I read articles like this it is hard for me to concentrate over the noise of partisan axes grinding. Listen up. The Democrats are just as bad when it comes to inserting giant holes into the Internal Revenue Code.

3. When I look at articles like this and clever statistics, I think of my undergrad statistics courses. I get the feeling that the old "lies, damned lies, and statistics" line is coming true yet again. I don't know whether this author is competent with statistics. Even if he is, given the clearly partisan bent of his writing, I question whether he is unbiased in application of his statistical skills.

4. The author makes it sound as if tax law since Ronald Reagan is all an experiment gone awry. Can anyone spot the error in his logic? Hint: it is spelled "uncontrolled variables."

5. He trots out anecdotes. Donald Trump. Etc. Ooookay. For every anecdote there is an opposite and equal anecdote.

Conclusion: this is utter partisan bullshit. Entertaining, possibly. Makes you feel good, if you agree with him. But of no value whatsoever.

Note: the clowns on the other side of the taxation argument are no better. They are selective in their use and abuse of statistics and they wear the same ridiculous ballet shoes as they leap from improbable assumptions to absurd conclusions.

A pox on both sides.

The truth is much more subtle. Tax does undoubtedly affect choices and behavior. But in my experience the marginal tax rate on income is only one of many factors affecting decisions. I do international tax work for very, very wealthy humans and the companies they own. In my experience I have seen repeated decisions AGAINST inbound investment recently. There is a manufacturing company in the Midwest that will probably go out of business, costing jobs, because my client (a foreign investor) decided the overall layers of bureaucratic bullshit were too damned much. Accounting, environmental, equal opportunity, this, that, the other. We torpedoed the deal this week.

There is a gigantic real estate project here in California that is not happening for similar reasons. There could be a few thousand construction jobs going right now. But there aren't.

The decisions here are partly driven by tax considerations. But intelligent investors (and I submit to you that Donald Trump, the McCourts, etc. are all intelligent investors) look at the overall after-tax return of a particular investment and act accordingly. After-tax returns are partly driven by income tax rates. But they're also driven by nontax considerations.

I'll give you a tax-related example. The IRS is currently on an amphetamine-fueled jihad against offshore bank accounts. The primary weapon is a form called Form TD F 90-22.1. Traditionally it applied only to U.S. citizens and residents. It requires U.S. persons to declare the existence of foreign accounts.

In the next-to-last iteration of the update to that form, the IRS attempted to expand the application of that disclosure requirement to nonresidents who were (defined messily) in the U.S. on business.

Assume for the moment you are a really wealthy non-U.S. person. (I have them as clients). You are extremely well connected politically in your home country. (I have them as clients). You have a few personal investments in the United States, such as a summer house, an account at JPMorgan, etc.

You come to the United States. You talk to your banker here about your money. Arguably, the IRS could tag you as failing to comply with the requirements of Form TD F 90-22.1, under the definition they tried to expand. You -- the extremely wealthy non-U.S. person, brother of a King or a Prime Minister -- might have to declare to the IRS your worldwide bank accounts? No fucking way.

I had people backpedaling from the U.S. so fast you could not believe it.

Noise erupted. The IRS backed off. For now.

THESE are the types of things that slow down inbound foreign investment and trade in my experience.

Entropy applies in government. This is the best we're ever going to have, government-wise. :-) Entropy takes over in the form of layers of bureacratic crap, one on top of the next, just like sediment in a lake.

TL;DR

1. David Johnson is partisan, selective and misleading; his argument has a counterpart on the other side of the political spectrum that is just as partisan, selective, and misleading.

2. Income tax rates are only one factor in decisions made by human beings, and are frequently swamped by other factors.

3. The world is going to hell. Have a beer. :-)

Phil.