skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
> And only 20 years even less.

I'm guessing you're in the US. I'm sure you can find papers and articles doing back-testing to the 1920s, which would include the Great Depression. If you can wait long enough, things have always recovered and earned a return.

> Did you adjust your calculations for inflation? For the S&P 500, the absolute worst-case is 58 years of not being up, I believe. 1929 - 1987.

Not my calculations. That's also assuming that one has zero bonds: for most people, who are saving for retirement, the component of the portfolio that goes into fixed income rises as age approaches 65. What were bonds during that time?

Most average people don't have the stomach for 'raw' 100% equity holdings, and so bonds are often present; bonds also allow for having 'dry powder' available for rebalancing. Scenarios like these are why portfolio theory can be complicated:

* https://www.investopedia.com/managing-wealth/modern-portfoli...

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_portfolio_theory

For good layman treatments on the subject I recommend the works of William J. Bernstein, The Intelligent Asset Allocator, The Four Pillars of Investing, and Rational Expectations:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_J._Bernstein

Recent interviews:

* https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/108 (podcast)

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haLGx8KlFvk (same, but video)

* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GzkxkOEcWc

> Historically low bond yields: The room for rates to go lower is low.

One does not necessarily buy bonds for returns, but also (perhaps) to manage volatility (which is often used as a proxy to measure risk). And low bonds are not anything new:

* https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/05/low-bond-returns-ar...

And one has to look at the real return of bonds over the decades: yes nominal numbers are low now and were high in the past, but inflation was high in the past as well (e.g., 1980s).
Why do you think an index that is 20% tech stocks "isn't diversified"? The S&P 500 has had more than 20% in several different sectors over its history, from transport to energy to communications. With indexing, you have whatever investments are worth making in the current economy. You don't have to predict the trends or decide what's overinvested in.
You have to take some responsibility for your health, and the things you do or don't do have a big effect on your long term outcome. If you want to call that insulting, fine.

To be clear every treatment I had was recommended or approved by a medical doctor, that's part of the research and discussion with my doctors. I absolutely think that's important. And having a diverse team of doctors from different backgrounds both in and outside of mainstream U.S. medicine is useful.
Never take financial advice from WSB
To be fair to GP, they did say it is ok to work with a direct engineer even if offshore vs offshore agencies that are just looking for a "project". I agree with him and I run offshore teams.
My biggest disappointment about Singapore is the censorship.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_Singapo...

My biggest boast about Singapore are the privacy laws and technology infrastructure.

Singapore could be great, if only a few things were to change.
> This is definitely not a public opinion.

OP means this is the public opinion in China, not in US. Or at least that's the public opinion that CCP wants to install. And unfortunately most of the people surrounding me agree this. And I can't argue with them without convincing them the "sometimes misguided censorship" is deliberate and people should not accept censorship in the first place (if most of them do China would have already been different). It's literally a trap.
also the logo design spells "Weblob," which is somehow marginally better than Weboob...?
'boob'? they don't look like simpletons, this looks fairly clever!

https://www.etymonline.com/word/boob#etymonline_v_15598
Instagram always felt like it was specifically designed to just get away from Facebook/twitter style discussions. Yes, there's a comments section, but 99%+ is hidden "below the fold". Stories are comments free (you can DM the poster, but 15 people can't start a discussion on the topic unless it's a linked post, which tbf is a majority of story content)

Instagram was the only "real" social media I was engaging with (besides LinkedIn, I guess?) specifically because of this. I could still keep up with (most) of my friends goings on but without my mother explaining how her racist ideas weren't actually racist in 5 paragraph essay form. I could see dank memes, and babies making cakes and generally have fun.

Then the world caught fire. The politics came from Instagram HARD. And the more time I spend on it (while myself feeling more politically engaged) the more I'm recognizing its shortcomings. It's not a placid information farm with a cute cat facade anymore. It's the same putrid swamp as everywhere else, but you have to have an image (or an image of text) associated with whatever you're trying to say.

TL;dr- Instagram users skew "younger", so I like it more than Twitter or Facebook. Other people seem to agree.
>> pkg.go.dev hard-codes a list of centralized git hosting services [that are the only allowed ones]

So how in the world did git.lukeshu.com get to be on that list?

https://pkg.go.dev/git.lukeshu.com/go/libfastimport
I'm 24 and my iPhone tells me I spend 2 hours on TikTok a day. This is up from about a year and a half ago, when i consumed it exclusively in YouTube compilations.

Their targeting and algorithmic curation is extremely, scary good.
Want to share your mashed potato recipe?
HR arguably has the most immediate potential gain, and from its new policies those in the employee pool have the most to lose.

There's a lot of use in applying insurance analysis techniques to filter out bad hires much better than conventional practices. Instead of interviews, vetting, tests, headhunters, you can adopt the latest in data analysis to cut costs and improve your KPIs across the board.

Predict an employee's productivity by analyzing online browsing behavior. Fixed qualities like attention span and drift; escapism and procrastination; pleasure-seeking vs productive, curious, prosocial browsing habits. How do these overlap in a typical workday? Are you focused or dispersed? Does your attention cycle? Do you complete tasks to the end, what happens when you get stuck on a problem?

This doesnt even get into
friendship networks, purchasing behavior, public displays of attitudes.

Can you game the system? Probably not. These days that requires you to play a losing game of tweaking your personality down to the smallest meticulous detail. Essentially going against the grain of your natural flow ordering all aspects of your identity to suit an opaque and almost certainly fault-laden.

People flip out about the Chinese social score, without realizing that it was pioneered in the US private-sector.

Say no to mandatory medical intervention.

Written from my Android 2.2
Well, that cheap smartphone ain’t gonna build itself. You need a worker so fed up with his life he contemplates jumping off a building.
Naturopathic medicin is not "pseudoscience". I've seen first hand friends that trusted main-stream cancer doctors and were hurt almost to the point of death. It wasn't until they turned to alternatives that they improved and survived.

It doesn't take much of a history lesson to find many many examples of Allelopathic medicine causing much more harm than good. The OP details that they found out that the mechanism at work was not what the doctors thought. How many other mistakes are they making on a daily basis?

You embrasing the status quo, which is demonstrably killing people daily with poisons, and calling everything else "pseudoscience" is truly a deplorable stance.

I truly believe that humans, if we make it that far, are going to look back at this time of "the war on cancer" as one of the most disgusting and, obvious in hindsight, destructive things we've ever forced onto people in the chase for the god mighty dollar.

The financial incentives of the pharmaceutical companies and the medical profession do not make them work for our benefit. A cure would be a huge loss of one of the largest money making schemes ever devised.

There has been good research on cancer treatements that do not destroy the immune system, nor require poisoning. A cursory scan on sci-hub for medicinal mushrooms and cancer yeild a hundred hits [1] with much to learn from. Studies from 20 years ago showing how taking certain mushrooms while undergoing chemo and/or radiation can greatly reduce side effects and improve survival rates.

This is science. This is also science that the medical and drug profession ignores, to their own discrace and shame.

The GF was stating a hard fact, you have to do your own research because the baises and conflicts of interest of the medical profession and the drug companies blind them to less damaging and much less profit driven treatments.

[1] http://gen.lib.rus.ec/scimag/?q=mushroom%20cancer
Game dev examines Ninja's Hollywood career aspirations
Name aside, I really like the concept of liberating various websites’ functionality from HTML and the web browser platform. That feels like the dream of the old interoperable web and it aims to make life easier for blind folks which is cool if it works!
The strategy I described is sometimes called “time cost averaging”

It is a form of timing the market. The idea is to buy at about the average price over some time period to avoid getting bitten by volatility.

For reasons not involving investments, I had to have a large cash position until we were well into the recovery from the last crash.

Buying index funds at all time highs during the biggest economic downturn of our lifetimes is a bit much to stomach, so I’m spreading the purchase out over time.
The intellect of man is forced to choose /
Perfection of the life, or of the work, /
And if it take the second must refuse /
A heavenly mansion, raging in the dark.
-W.B. Yeats, “The Choice”
Note that some features are absent here. You can't click on any of the declarations to view their source, for example. This is the degraded view for unknown hosts.
If you're against a broad market index fund right now (which I think is fair, not so much because of the socio-political climate, but because of the high implied valuations of the companies within it), I'd recommend putting about all of it in Berkshire Hathaway as a set-it-and-forget-it type thing. It's effectively a cheaper index fund with better-than-average companies.

Why in the world would I recommend a single stock? For one, Berkshire is a "financial fortress" with virtually no debt, $100B+ in cash, and about a collection of dozens of wholly owned subsidiaries: GEICO, See's Candy, BH Energy, BNSF Railway, etc. Berkshire's so conservative that, although Buffett and Munger have acknowledged leverage could boost their returns, they refuse to take on obligations that would even create a 1 out of 100 year risk of failure. More importantly, I believe it's cheap at current prices (a little under $200 for each class B share). When you buy Berkshire, which has a market cap of ~$500B, you're getting $175B worth of stock $125B in cash, and the all the subsidiaries for $200B. And I'd bet the intrinsic value of those subsidiaries exceeds $200B by a substantial factor.

Risks: (1) The biggest problem is that Berkshire is already quite big. That makes it difficult to compound capital at large rates. But compared to the S&P 500 or the even-bigger tech companies, I'd rather be buying Berkshire, at least at today's prices. (2) Buffett and Munger's advanced age. This to me is not as huge of a problem as people make it out to be. Todd Combs (GEICO), Ted Weschler (investment manager), Greg Abel (non-insurance ops), and Ajit Jain (insurance ops) are extraordinarily talented... to say nothing about the leadership in the subsidiaries. And Berkshire's built such that it would be a great business even without these top-notch managers. (3) Time. This isn't a problem if you're happy to hold Berkshire for 20+ years. But markets are emotional beasts and stock prices can decline rapidly and unpredictably. Berkshire isn't a bond nor does it pay a dividend. So don't buy Berkshire if there's a risk that, 5 years from now, you'll need to sell or if you're the kind of person who can't deal emotionally with large short-term declines in stock prices.

Disclaimer: NOT investment advice. Just my personal opinion. I've been buying up more and more Berkshire in the past few weeks.
But what about Rust??
It's still what I said, the CCP doesn't care that much about who has data on its citizens, the amount they have could never match the party's anyway, and the measures being taken made it so that potential subversion is unlikely. It's a different story outside China and still the US's to lose.

When 95% of the comments on Weibo are like what I said, I think it's pretty safe to say it is public opinion.
What happens to an effective treatment Medicare pays under cost? Those exist and right now are subsidized by the higher paying private policies. Do these treatments just go away?
I've seen that gap mentioned a few times in this thread. I checked out the visual in the thread [1] and I have a question since time makes everything complicated. This is definitely an example of a worst case scenario, exactly as you mentioned.

How do we calculate that in the total risk assessment? For this outcome to be true, you would have had to invest all of your money in a 6 month period and then tried to exit in a 3 month period during those referenced years.

It would also assume that you are not investing at any other period in between, which is typically advice that goes hand in hand with index funds and tracking the market. In theory and all things being equal, it sounds like that is neutralized if we try to get out in the periods I mentioned above, right? This also assumes no dividends have been paid out.

It seems like the maximum risk is high since the return could be 0% in theory but it also seems like the chance of that happening being _very_ low.

Genuinely curious how you think about it and what else is missing. It definitely makes me want to learn more about how we've stabilized the economy after The Great Depression.

1: https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat...
They have an app called “handjoob” so safe to say it’s deliberate. And the site shows all male contributors, you say?
Potentially but their negotiating position is shutting down completely which would be a loss for a potential acquiring company. I'm sure that TT stole some users from YT, IG, and Tumblr but largely creators are posting everywhere so their existence just increases the size of the pie.
The economic stress of being a landlord, and the bank potentially repossessing your extra houses you don't even live in, doesn't compare to stress of BEING HOMELESS. Sorry to yell, but there's a difference being forced to live on the street, starving from not having eaten in days, and being stressed about next quarter's financials being off, while inside of an air-conditioned house, and having food delivered.

They say money doesn't buy happiness but personally, I highly recommend being rich over being poor. If, as a rich person, you chose to invest in real estate (risky, as pointed out why) instead of the stock market (also risky, see Q1 2020 volatility), then sure let's discuss ROI for REIT vs SPY over a 15 year period that includes 2008 and 2020. However, let's not pretend being in the highly privileged position of throwing money you have but don't want to spend at a problem (Eg selling shares of stock, in order to cover the cost to restore property after a bad tenant) is remotely the same thing as being too poor to afford food.

There are risks involved with investing money, but the number of hours it takes to make $50,000/year from a $10,000,000 investment, is approximately 0. For those hustling 60 hour weeks to make $43,440/year, that's obscene.

If you were a landlord and couldn't save enough in the 12 years between 2008 and 2020, to weather a few months of not having the rental income, maybe you should have taken fewer trips to the Caribbean, or Europe. For those that are just getting in during 2020, I'm sorry.
Just as some general advice, imo that’s enough money to visit with a fee-only financial advisor for some planning. I don’t think my numbers are wildly off for location but you could probably spend like a grand (.22%) to get a solid plan in place that you can ride for a while. Or like others have said, roboadvisor. I don’t think target date fund makes sense outside of a retirement vehicle but maybe that’s an option.
I was thinking of a widget where in I can set the font-style and related properties, along with the background color and padding.
The best part is when you go to an in network hospital, and one random doctor that worked on you is out of network. Oops 10k surprise bill
congratulation, can you share how you made money from this?
I understand the complaints, but Go is Google’s language just like Ruby on Rails is Basecamp’s framework. This is not a secret! Also, I think this is fine? If your interests align with the owners, then you can really benefit. If not, then you are better off choosing a different solution.
Same thing with Firefox for Android ..
Apple Buys Startup to Turn iPhones into Payment Terminals
Larry King Got Duped into Starring in Chinese Propaganda
You have a gift for understatement.
Or wetbook, comparaboob, or boobsize?
http://weboob.org/applications/
I agree the 4% rule is too aggressive nowadays. But every .25% increment lower means a huge improvement in sustainability, so even adjusting down to 3% is profoundly more conservative than the original rule. At 1.5% you are going lower even than endowment funds aiming for perpetual maintenance of principal (they often use 2%-2.5%).

The 4% rule of thumb was calculated to minimize risk of running out of money during the time period. 1.5% * 30 years = 45%, so an investment that simply keeps up with inflation would leave you with more than half your cash after 30 years.

And note that the stock market almost always has positive real returns over periods as long as 30 years (see William Bernstein’s book Deep Risk), so the assumption “just keeps up with inflation” is already very pessimistic.
It should be with dividends reinvested, in absolute index value I think FTSE 100 is still 10% down from 2008 peak. The difference in return might be because the fund hasn't tracked the index well.

I gave the example of UK as UK was precisely a power in the past and lost the lead somewhere and never recovered well. I think US is sound for foreseeable future but with the rising geopolitical tension and the sort of signals coming from China, if they become stronger in the future and have the ability to influence more markets, we might see influence of US waning as well.
>That's pretty dismal, IMO, and shows the limitation of their current setup.

Well they cant beat the speed of light. What could they do ?
Inspiration Network for Developers and Designers
Any examples of those mining lenders you mentioned?
I'm in a similar note. Also mom, also pancreatic. Also was told that it was just "her being too stressed", etc. for two months

Hard to digest.
I tried to live without the tech giants. It was impossible
Until they deny you your necessary cancer screening for a few months and your cancer comes back with a vengeance requiring an operation and some major chemo just to give you a chance at staying alive, this system is great. Then again, if you never get sick, any system is fine and they all work the same.
A curve of constant width – The Reuleaux Triangle
could they not paint the bike shed in that color?
I didn’t say it was? But I’m pretty sure it makes the site useless
Prodeus – Get your degree from YouTube
Apples and oranges my friend. Being elite and overtraining are orthogonal. By definition, overtraining is pushing your body too far too fast. No one can train for a 100 mile race by doing 3 50 mile training runs in a week. That's not how physiology works. Discipline and lots of hard work can help you be elite, but overtraining is never good. Never.
Why did twitter shut it down?
> way way more entertaining than any other social network by a long shot.

ahahaha
But every single command line parser I have ever used (and I have used many over the past 25 years in many programming languages) does in fact know before parsing that a b and c don't take a value and o does: accepting the grammar for the flags and then parsing them in this way is like the only job of the parser?
Effectiveness of Hydroxychloroquine in Covid-19 disease
If that is the main idea your S1, not gonna get much interest unless you don’t raise much.
I boob, you boob, everybody boob!

If you can't enjoy the boobery, you're a chump. I will not be moved on this matter.
Effective Ways to Improve Remote Communication
All good names are taken. This sounds fun.
There is a special circle of hell for the Atlassian stack. It is a classical example of legacy bloat.
> Do you give money to the construction workers who built the road every time you drive to work?

In a way, yes. There are lots of usage taxes around driving that help fund road construction.
No I'm talking about google results that explicitly say "Ad"
Isn’t this simply replacing HTML with the QT XML markup and C++ code instead of JavaScript? What is the liberating part?
I'm not sure that this would have been considered inclusive in the previous century, quite the contrary.
Hallo james
They are fickle sort of like a Hurricane. Feels like over the last 20 year we have learnt how to scale things up quick i.e. spin up a hurricane.

What the hurricane does after its created or whether its controllable at all no one really knows. Making room for the type of characters who will claim they can control hurricanes. Expect these people to show up and disappear as these hurricanes spin up and fizzle out.

That said, I just hope figuring out whether hurricanes can be controlled doesn't take too many more years, and happens without too many more unpredictable side effects.
How many years have you been doing this?
lord yes
Your comment is confusing due to missing line breaks :-) Try indenting the lines with two spaces.

And I agree, I would prefer:

program -c=blue
I’m underwhelmed by the absence of 139 micro services(written by 11 one-pizza teams), each with its own database instance.
it,s also good to make website data easier to liberate by exporting easy to import formats like zipped txt or even ascii.

i ensure that entire web forum is exportable by any user as txt in such a way that cloned forum retains all relationships and even same credentials can be used.

using pgp libraries allows me compatibility with existing libraries and infrastructure, e.g. using existing ,,stable,, key to validate ownership of forum account, but also to generate user keys on the spot for in.forum use only.

this may seem like a tradeoff between security and convenience, and it is. additional verifiability can be accomplished by later signing blocks of hashes with more secure signing method.
But that's the whole point. In Texas there are many (most?) areas that have eviction moratoriums until Sept 30 (already extended twice, not surprised if they are extended again). Many landlords have received no rent payments for months.

IMO that makes sense, but when they do eventually lift the moratoriums, very few of these people will be able to pay their back rent. When you haven't paid rent for 6 (or 9 or 12 or whatever) months, the normal policy is to get evicted. This flood is inevitable and all I've heard from politicians are kick the can down the road type solutions.
iOS has a lot of layers and mitigations both in software and proprietary hardware that aren't found in other systems. Keep in mind that this story would be 20 % the length on other systems, because "physical memory read/write primitive" would be a total break.
An OSS community that converts cars to electric. Part 3: Johannes Huebner