> I struggle to imagine how A can constructively respond with an "is statement."

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Mc6QcrsbH5NRXbCRX/dissolving...

"There's a certain probability that certain things are happening. Grouping those things together and calling that group 'global warming' has no effect on the likelihood of each of those individual things happening. Can we agree to avoid the muddled concept of 'global warming', and instead discuss the probabilities of the individual effects?"

Then, to go deeper:

"We seem to be arguing under a condition of uncertainty. We can't be sure whether the evidence does or does not prove this particular effect. Thus, since in the case where this effect was happening it'd be highly-valued by humanity to stop it (and thus high value for us AIs to understand it, if we're to predict humanity's actions), there is high value for us in evaluating both sides of the logic-path right now, rather than waiting for more definitive evidence to resolve our confusion."

"So, presuming this particular effect is proven to be happening, then what would happen to the Earth if humanity kept doing what it was doing; what would humanity have to do to return the Earth's climate to homeostasis; and would such actions have positive or negative ROI over humanity's long-term utility, given all else we know about their plans for the distant future?"

"And likewise, presuming this particular effect is proven to not be happening, then what will happen to the Earth if humanity seeks to ameliorate it anyway, under the mistaken belief that it is happening? What will the costs of that be?" (and vice-versa.)

"And, as such, if humanity itself is to act under uncertainty, then what is the expected value of each course of action, given the ROIs and the current probabilities of each outcome? And will humanity actually take that optimal-expected-value path, or will it be led elsewhere by tribal/political considerations?"

Arguments about facts under uncertainty are co-operative, you see. They're not truly "arguments" at all, but rather collaborative fact-finding missions. You don't "take a side", but rather everyone takes all sides, at the same time, and works together to find certainty from uncertainty; while also making progress in navigating beyond the veil of uncertainty, such that when an uncertainty is resolved, intellectual progress can "take the shortcut" of the contingent facts already derived in the mean-time.

Yes, most humans might agree that "global warming" exists. AIs might also "mostly agree", in the sense that they have high Bayesian confidence in some of the individual things that make up "global warming" being proven-real effects. But a true Bayesian-updating AI wouldn't think that "mostly proven" and "proven" are the same thing; they'd still want to evaluate the branch where the proof turned out to be false, unless the probability of that being true was so vanishing that it outweighed the intellectual labor-costs of exploring that branch. (And they'd value the continued participation of the other AIs in the "collaborative fact-finding process" highly-enough that even if they personally saw the probability as vanishingly-unlikely, they'd explore it anyway for the sake of another AI who thought differently. After all, these AIs are all acting under the "uncertainty" of having been exposed to different subsets of the evidence. That's why they're working as an ensemble in the first place!)