skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
From my understanding the US policy is to always use kits developed in domestically. The problem with the test was one of the reagents for negative control was contaminated so it could not distinguish between positive and negative tests. This component of the test was suppose to be an extremely basic process, so much so that none of the epidemiological response plans ever accounted for this possible failure mode.
In the December 31 2019 email, Taiwan specifically references seven cases of “atypical pneumonia” as well as mentioning it was not found to be SARS (and by implication that it may be something else).

Taiwan’s position is that by making it clear the new diaease was an was “atypical pneumonia”, it could reasonably be inferred that human to human transmission was likely.

The WHO claiming “no evidence” after this was pointed out to them is the issue - there was some evidence, even if it wasn’t conclusive.

Taiwan’s statement is here: https://www.cdc.gov.tw/Category/ListContent/sOn2_m9QgxKqhZ7o...
Recently we tried to start using Slack for our local sporting club. We added our club google account to access files but this account also had all members in mailing group or something like that. Little bit after we added that account all 60+ members started receiving slack notifications and tens of them. Probably we hit some edge case that is not covered in the fow chart.
‘Frostbite’ toes etc. may be signs of hidden Covid-19, especially in young
It brought me great delight to watch you confidently declare _you_ are the one with a full nuanced and fair grasp of this situation.

You calculate herd immunity % from R0, and it's odd to decide 70% is not generous and ballpark guess because you think the data "conflicts" - there's no
"conflicting" between values in a range, go ahead and cherry-pick the lowest R0 you've seen and find out what the herd immunity % required is based on that (higher than 70%)

Won't even touch you trying to pretend this is the same as the flu, plenty of other threads address that.

I've made it clear already, but just to reiterate, this is one of the worst comments I've seen on HN in a while.
TIP: have ONE brazil nut per day is enough selenium to get your rda dose and generally more enjoyable than popping a pill.
Actual title is "‘Frostbite’ toes and other peculiar rashes may be signs of hidden coronavirus infection, especially in the young" but edited for length.
There are also pedestrians in the mix - so a cyclist running a red light can still pose a serious hazard to other people. In the Bay Area there have been cases of pedestrians killed, as well as serious injuries such as broken legs or arms.

I'd also worry about bicycle-vs-bicycle collisions. Maybe density is too low to make this terribly likely, but it doesn't sound like a scenario that would go well either.
The problem is no one likes to look stupid, and this is one of the cases where anyone who can spell words together was able to see through the BS. Whether they are going to hoard it or not, the solution is not for an expert to lie to the public.
'Publisher' Google ordered to pay $40k in damages for defaming Melbourne lawyer
fun fact: whale fat is highest in natural vitamin D, bio-availlable and all
That comparison was really insightful to me
Lol'd at this comment. Another top post today titled "I could do that in a weekend" comes to mind.
You're never going to please everyone. I've seen HNers complain about the opposite, that they have a large monitor for a reason and the web designer has wronged them by adding margins.

Anyways, I think we're all big boys and girls who can figure out how to use reader mode or resize a window in 2020. That's the whole beauty of the web browser.
Come on, "use ohms law to change your coils"?

What a bunch of bullshit.
So was it a straight out lie or incompetence? I remember reading here in HN that a lot of the masks do not actually protect you from the infection. But rather what a mask does is that it stops YOU from spreading the infection if you are infected.
Have your two parents and younger brother had a particularly big workout yet? ;)
Everyone should read: The ‘Red Dawn’ Emails: 8 Key Exchanges on the Faltering Response to the Coronavirus

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/us/politics/coronavirus-r...

Full emails here: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6879-2020-covid-19-r...

It seems like experts at least at an exceedingly clear grasp of the situation, with fair accurate predictions based on available data on the time. It doesn't seem like there was much "miscalculation" by subject matter experts, but bureaucratic incompetence on many levels that still persist.
It's a random comment on a random website. Chill.
Maybe increase your chance of melanoma.
You're trying to bring galactic brain thought to a rather mundane, simple, calculation. (Fine, 1993) Please don't try to be a contrarian when out of your field, you end up making 'not even wrong' statements
Probably just a weird cache artifact, does it persist after you clear cache / Gmail in private browsing?
As Peter Thiel famously said, "Never bet against Elon Musk."

I'm a shareholder. I expect that Elon's leadership will make my shares go up an incredible amount in the future.

I have over half of my life savings at stake on TSLA, so I have a lot of skin in the game. If you think he's so bad, why don't you short his stock?

It would be fun to check back in six months and compare how we did!
> Musk venting with "FREE AMERICA NOW" tweet makes him seem almost crazy

Why. Personally I do think we should stay inside, but it's not an invalid argument to say that locking people in their homes on penalty of fine is a weird thing. Too much economic damage could cause deaths well beyond COVID-19 so there is a balance to be found.

But to go a step further and invalidate any criticism of locking people up inside their homes as 'crazy' is out of the playbook of 1984
As long as you can keep your borders effectively shut for the next year or so I think you’ll be in great shape. That ship has sailed in the case of the US.

As I understand it, there is a bimodal approach to managing an epidemic. You’re on a totally different pathway of successful suppression, where you’ve never actually seen exponential community spread. Your endpoint is not herd immunity.

The US probably was seeing uncontrolled exponential community spread in ~January. There are major metro areas which have 20%+ prevalence. The only endpoint left for the US is herd immunity.

So you would not expect the same measures to be taken, as long as AU is striving to maintain suppression I think that means your local measures will have to remain quite a bit stricter than a country trying to obtain herd immunity as quickly as possible.

EDIT: (Since HN won’t let me reply) You’ve had a total of 6,700 detected cases and 63% of those were imported.

Your total community spread over this entire time was what we see in two days in Massachusetts.

You’ve done 500k tests total, the US is presently running 160k tests a day. Harvard just came out with a study saying they thought we would need to get to 5 million tests a day. This is what I mean by bimodal.
There's pretty strong evidence that a light, mostly voluntary, shelter in order, with restrictions on crowds and certain crowded-y places like bars, (AKA the SF bay area policy) is largely sufficient. If the whole US had the bay area's mortality and infection rate we wouldn't be having the same conversation. In terms of "freedom", I haven't felt like if I needed to go into work it would be a problem, and I've gone in twice to take care of critical on-prem infrastructure.
I wouldn't call the undersuply of masks a failure. There is only so much supply and creating new production lines takes month. Without fighting wars, how should it be possible to procure enough masks when the entire world needs masks?

The mistake lies in not demanding that each and everybody covers their faces with whatever they have. There is no need to filter the air if the virus is not released.
Lets say you have 20 people im a room and one of them has a mild. Now you have up to 20 mild cases.

If 20 people spend a day in a room and 10 of them have mild cases maybe you now have 10 mild and up to 10 severe cases.

In order to be in a situation with many mild or pre-symptomatic cases in the same room the disease must spread fast through society.
Glad to see this no longer appears to be flagged.
I'm curious if anyone knows what HN's process is for unflagging an entry. How do they decide what remains flagged?
I'm curious, was the official word always that even N95 masks didn't protect the wearer? Or just that "masks" in general (i.e., lesser masks) would not protect wearers?
Not just a bad call, the lack of ownership by Democrats and their half-working-on-the-issue, half-keeping-the-Trump-tabloid-train-moving throughout all of this contributed significantly to the overall failure, and has played a huge role in us reaching Great Depression-era economic status. Every overblown executive order, news report, today-people-are-dangerous, tomorrow-we're-readying-to-reopen.

Lying was just phase one or two. We're up to phase six now.
+1 I was thinking the same thing. Maybe an alternative title "Show HN: Quickly summarize your availability"
There are only about 7,300 ICU beds in California [1]. If we're at 20%, that's only about two doublings before people start being rejected for care. In March, we were seeing a doubling every few days, with ICU requirements following [2].

I'm not disagreeing that we need to let people be infected if we want to achieve herd immunity, but I think it's a tough choice in deciding which portion of the population you put out to partially die, since letting everyone out at once will result in some high R0 value again, and a vaccine may be on the way. These politicians are in a lose-lose situation here. Anything they do will result in someone being harmed.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guida...

[2] https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-gov-newso...
Whoa, this editor was quite amazing! If you have two minutes, watch the "Photo Texturing" and "Photo Editing" demonstrations:

https://youtu.be/bCWX3BNT1H0?t=150
> Private institutions have no incentives to serve the greater good of the country.

What are the incentives for government to serve the greater good of the country, specifically, why should government be uniquely qualified to decide what is good for everyone. As the old joke goes, "democracy is the belief that the people know what they want, and they deserve to get it, good and hard". But nobody in the world really lives in a democracy, it's even worse! There's indirection. To believe that governments are qualified to serve the "greater good" is to believe that people are qualified to select people who are good at judging the greater good. And that's not even counting the next layer of indirection. You're really hoping people are qualified to select people (politicians) that select people (unelected bureaucrats) that know what the greater good is.

There are many, many cases, when private enterprise (often, but not exclusively, for-profits operating in a nonprofit/goodwill capacity) has been the most effective responder in national emergencies, for example Walmart immediately providing tons of supplies in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.

There is a wide window of human activity between a selfish money grubbing capitalist firm, and the government.
No one knows why the CDC issued the guidelines that they did. There's also fairly little doubt that the CDC in previous decades would've been smarter and better organized.

A lot of the commentary about the matter is disingenuous. Of course they won't filter out all the infectious agents for all healthcare workers forever. It was a matter of risk mitigation, just as much as shelter-in-place is. Getting infected is a numbers game, as is the live-locking of available hospital capacity.
Cool project! Great work. I think this perfectly fits the send me your availability niche.
When working with groups, I've used when2meet[0]

[0] https://www.when2meet.com/
That blame seems misplaced given the end state.

When the folks making crazy promises are dead and/or gone by the time their promises are broken when the funds come up short, the workers who took the good deal are left holding the bag.

We must retroactively assign blame to the worker who was lured into accepting obvious false promises. It is perversely the most compassionate thing we can do: blame and shame past workers for making stupid deals. We do this so that future generations will learn the hard lesson that governments cannot be trusted with their investments. There is no power in investment.

Blaming past politicians for their malfeasance is exactly how we enable today's politicians to keep kicking the can down the road.
Does google know which apps were infected and does it plan on letting folks installed know? It’s unfortunate their own project zero didn’t catch this.
Anti-platform web pages should all join hands as a webring.
Chrome shows "blob:" URLs as network transactions, but they're not.
Surgeons wear masks to protect the patient from droplets from the surgeon's nose and mouth, which otherwise could easily fall right into the patient's open wound.
Isn't this still technically almost correct? The surgeon's masks don't entirely filter the virus out of the air. However, they work for a society because they prevent the virus from spreading into the air from those who are already infected.
I've got great results on using vitamin D for cluster headaches. https://n.neurology.org/content/82/10_Supplement/P1.256
The IHME model has been really interesting for Sweden. While Sweden is saying they have it under control the growth rate of their expected deaths is rising faster than any country. It was projected at about 10k by Aug 4 just a couple of weeks ago, but it is now over 17k expected to die in Sweden. Although they seem to be more OK as a country if their senior citizens die.
Whether code or nocode, if your solution can solve a valuable problem, u can make money.

Nocode tools are just equipments like your screw driver, cutter, etc. This question is like asking whether a repairman can make money. Of course he can!
What, in your expert opinion, would be the total impact of letting the virus run out of control?
Texas was and still is a net contributor to the union.

California is no longer a net contributor to the union[1], since SALT reform.

1. https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/04/23/newsom-responds-to-mc...
> No code

Sounds like a fancy (actually more like crappy) buzzword for using SaaS products as part of your website/business.

Source: reading https://www.makerpad.co/stories/mitchell-wright-how-lambda-s...
I think I read somewhere that in 1918 flu, they noticed that ppl who had lots of exposure to the sun had better outcomes.. anecdotal
You are misrepresenting the conclusions of that report. The report clearing distinguishes between "mitigation" and "suppression" in the second paragraph.

> However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many
times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

The aggressive social distancing implemented in the U.S. falls under "suppression," and therefore is not considered in the predictions you quoted:

> suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population

Two paragraphs after the bit you quoted:

> We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The
social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be
profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier
stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently.

The report predicted 5,600-48,000 deaths in Great Britain if all four interventions discussed were put in place. The UK has had ~26,000 deaths.

This prediction for GB (suppression) is 80-98% lower than the prediction you quoted (mitigation). A naive application of these ratios to the US suggests that the predicted number of deaths with all interventions would be something like 24,000 - 220,200. The U.S. is currently at ~60,000 deaths.

So, erm, no - the United States has not "beat every single expert pre-peak total deaths prediction; by a lot."
Start here: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/down-rabbit-hole-eurodolla...

One of the best articles written on the subject if you´re interested
No, what's 'crazy' is having to read a mind-numbing comment claiming anyone is 'locking up people in their homes', in service of defending an out-of-touch billionaire who flies twice a day on his private jet, 200,000 miles in just the last 3 months. https://twitter.com/evdefender/status/1252352769605791744?s=...

Why out of touch? Because 74% of Americans support the quarantine https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-c...

Why is this all particularly insane? Musk went on to praise China's reaction, which _actually locked people into their homes_ and their "opening" is our "locking up people in their homes". https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/29/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-lockdo...
Thank you for your evaluation. We Will fix this soon.
> "During active COVID-19 infection symptoms [...], please AVOID[...]"

> Hence I've been avoiding adding Vitamin D

Do you have active symptoms?

The concern is about a studied connection between Vitamin D supplementation and an increase in concentration of the IL-1b inflammation marker (see, e.g., [1]), which has been implicated in cytokine storms. The other supplements mentioned have similar effects.

This correlation suggests that you might not want to be taking Vitamin D if you're as risk of a cytokine storm hurting you.

That said, however, vitamin D is also associated with strong anti-inflammatory properties of other markers, so really -- it's super hard to predict what will happen. As far as I know, no one has observed a connection between Vitamin D and cytokine storms directly, so the whole thing is kind of hypothetical.

[1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4631349/
VoiceApp: the revolutionary way to call without censorship or gov interference
This is really interesting. Are there any good tutorials for someone starting out? I would be interested in playing around with it.
Apple is pretty much the same, I've been trying to create a developer account for three entire weeks and it still shows as "pending" without info. I saw on the forums that for some people it can take months. It looks like some bureaucratic government body from the 90s.

I now advise my friends to switch to Android if they want to see the app, there's a limit on what I can put with. These companies should just be broken up in pieces.
The open web is still there. In many ways it is better than ever. People can still publish what they want. There are just so many more users today than there were 15 or 20 years ago. Many of them aren't interested in producing or consuming anything outside of the walled garden. You can blame them if you think that is productive, but don't mourn the open web.

How much are we really loosing when the most vapid platforms continue increasing their censorship?

Which is more informative, a 5 minute youtube video with a 2 minute intro (please like and subscribe, I beg you!) or a book on the topic from libgen?

Please don't confound publishing on the open web with platforms centered on exploiting consumers' vanity.
Hopefully this isn't ungenerous, but it seems like a marketing/signaling term that people on places like indiehackers use to market their products. If it wasn't labeled as such, a nondescript framework with the plugins + content that you could build for the last 20 years wouldn't stand out. Bothers me that it is something that apparently people are proud of, they'd empower themselves a lot more by sitting down and picking up a basic framework, where they aren't limited by someone else. It's not as though they aren't capable.
My app got suspended because my self publish ebook reader could be used to search for books one of which had a kid with a nerf gun on its cover.
> "human genome" sized project to create an accurate physics engine and a chemistry engine

bingo. this would insanely impactful long term.
In other words: A moderate length of time, combined with self-isolation as much as possible.

Precision with language, people, please and thank you. Non-precision is how we've ended up with half the country calling fast-food-drive-thrus "public endangerment" one day, and the next day deploying a brand new plan to reopen everything much sooner than expected.

So, moderate length of time, 7-14 days or until tests are returning consistent negative results.
And here's Flutter, with CanvasKit, to try to turn the web into a dumb platform for developers to push pixels into people's faces.

The web doesn't deserve any of this. It- we- can be so much better. Hypertext Markup Language has so much potential. But we squander it.
Elm Regression Testing
The open web started dying over a decade ago with the dawn of the iPhone and with the advent of social media. Cheap devices coupled with platforms that use psychological manipulation to keep people addicted are pretty effective in drawing an audience.

The platforms also don't generate a profit or operate at a loss YouTube generated $15 billion last year[1], but Google/Alphabet never disclosed profitability and has only broken even in previous years[2]. Twitter also took over a decade before it even reported a profit[3]. These kinds of ventures would be choked out by competition and by a lack of investors normally. But monetary profits aren't the goal. It's all about control.

Take Facebook for instance. Over half of the US population has a Facebook account[4]. Facebook is also known to engage in psychological manipulation of its audience to determine reactions and behavior[5], even shadowbanning users and content that it disagrees with[6]. This is a great recipe for broadcasting whatever message the controllers of these platforms want and for reinforcing those beliefs with positive messaging. I won't even get into the political ramifications like with the Cambridge Analytica scandal[7] or that Facebook advertises using your name to your friends[8].

I'm trying to underline the point that Perez makes in the article. It's incredibly dangerous to trust these platforms with anything. They disguise their motives in corporate speak and platitudes while shutting out any dissenting voices. The solution is to get off of these platforms that stifle speech and thought. Otherwise, we're doomed to live in Edward Bernays' wet dream.

[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/youtube-ad-revenue-15-billio...
[2] https://www.businessinsider.com/youtube-still-doesnt-make-go...
[3] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/07/technology/twitter-earnin...
[4] https://www.statista.com/statistics/268136/top-15-countries-... (the US population is 328.2 million)
[5] https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/jul/02/facebook-...
[6] https://gizmodo.com/facebook-patents-shadowbanning-183641134...
[7] https://www.businessinsider.com/cambridge-analytica-a-guide-...
[8] https://www.facebook.com/help/214816128640041
All rights are balanced against other rights. If your right to assemble interferes with the right of other people to not die from your actions, something has to give.

The reason that talking with you doesn't look productive is that you're behaving like a fundamentalist here. You've got a very basic understanding of one document, and you've decided that your take is the perfect truth.

People who actually devote their lives to studying and practicing the law, on the other hand, have a much more nuanced perspective. Freedom of speech is indeed a right, but it's not absolute. Courts have found "time, place, and manner" restrictions perfectly constitutional, and have for as long as America has existed: https://www.mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/1023/time-place...
Why Public Transit's Coronavirus Crisis Is Different