skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
These studies have completely different methodologies, and the only way you can plausibly call them similar is by arguing that anyone willing to get serological testing is substantially more likely to be infected than those who are not. That's little more than a fancy way of disregarding any testing result you don't happen to like.

We've been systematically biasing toward testing the old and infected for months now. Why should rates derived from PCR testing with known severity bias considered a strong prior, yet rates derived from serological surveys with hypothetical severity bias be disregarded for the same reasons?

At this point, we have many different studies from different parts of the world -- each with its own methodological flaws and biases -- and yet all are pointing in the same direction: a systematic under-count of cases, and an IFR somewhere between 0.5% and 1%, with a bias toward the lower value.
The Nintendo Switch charger only puts out 39 watts, and I think the Macbook Pro charger puts out 96 watts, so it makes sense that it would charge slowly.
The type of company you're thinking of would insist it's engaged in tax avoidance not evasion, and since the UK has a General Anti-Avoidance Rule it would furthermore claim that the tax efficiency is a result of some otherwise quite reasonable behaviour and isn't some scheme that makes no sense except for how it conveniently avoids taxation. But mostly, as you hint, it's hoping to stay under the radar so nobody asks awkward questions.

However my point applies for shady outfits advertising on Google too. It may make sense for some companies to pay money to have a third party place their advertising, perhaps as part of some value-added service that offsets the extra cost, but under a know-your-customer regime that company doesn't want to annoy Google. If you earn $10M a year re-selling Google's adverts then the chance to earn $1M putting your name on an obvious scam is a bad deal - Google's going to cut you off and there goes the $10M pa revenue.

So the first type of shell is likely to get implicated in scummy stuff that happens in future, and as I showed you'll find out it's a dead end because your government doesn't care about making businesses tell the truth about who they are. And that's not Google's fault, it's something your elected representatives might fix if they thought you knew and cared.
Remember when the WHO didn't want to recognize it as a pandemic for weeks and weeks, and the entire world was wondering why?

Weird choice to select the WHO to be the only source of truth in this one.
> Given YouTube's history with copyright trigger happiness, I wouldn't be so sure of these proportions, myself.

Exactly. There's absolutely no reason to trust Google about anything. This is a totally CYA move. That is, Google's only concern is avoiding controversy, whether it's about copyrights and trademarks, non-mainstream politics, non-traditional medicine, or whatever.

Even so, it's their platform, and they have the right to do whatever they like with it. I avoid it, and I recommend that others avoid it, but we're all free to choose.
For the people that thinks death rate is low is good news, it’s not when you know how contagious it is, you then need to look at numbers, not percentage to get a practical look at severity.
But no, there's no antitrust case to be made against big tech...

/s
We ask young people to risk their lives often, it's called 'The Army' (and other groups).

Also - this would be less risky than going to space.

My instinct says >50% of soldiers between 20-30 would instantly volunteer for this. Probably much higher, like 80%. Especially those unmarried.

There would be no lack of fit volunteers.

Its ethically problematic obviously, but so is asking grocery store workers to stock shelves as 'essential workers' during a pandemic when they have no PPE.

I think probably there's a 100% chance that so-called 'essential workers' who are not medical staff will die from Coronavirus due to the pandemic.

The rate of death among the 'very young' is exceedingly low, and I think there were always complications.

If we can narrow it to 19-26 year old, super healthy, without complications ... I think the 'possibility of harm' would be quite low.

It's not beyond the realm of ethical consideration.

Now - remove some ethnical barriers - such as what drug companies used to do by testing drugs in Africa, or what authoritarian governments do all the time (aka China) and you'll have this done in a heartbeat.

I think China/CCP wouldn't think twice about trying this on young men in jail. Is my cynical take.
Are you running Windows or Linux on that? I'm a MacOS user but I'd love to know if it's possible to have a good high-res-screen experience on a Linux laptop.
> [The Mythical Man-Month] Key takeaway: You'll soon fall victim to the problems identified by this book, even after reading it.

Yeah, that pretty much describes all of software development in one stroke. But you should read it anyway (if only to experience the feeling of someone predicting your future before (most of) you were born).
Probably worth noting in the title that this is a June 2019 publication, so the versions used (gcc 7.2.1, go 1.9.5) etc. are not exceptionally ancient - basically they used what was readily available in CentOS 7 around that time.

That said, some of the code used is quite... odd.
Is noexcept here the consequence of while? Or noexcept simply does nothing at all?

Not a C expert, so just curious.
There are armed groups at state capitols spreading dangerous misinformation about COVID-19 that will almost certainly cause people to get sick and die. That misinformation effort is coordinated and well-funded.

Whatever hypothetical you want to argue about censorship, you need to grapple with the fact that we face a persistent and aggressive misinformation threat, and combating it is part of the public health response to COVID-19.
I’d hope none of your hypotheticals would require a “clipboard in hand”, which is the red flag GP mentions - likely it’s a cold calling solicitation.
It waits for the OS.
Your "plant medicine" is very likely worthless, as most are.

Lots of people have few to no symptoms. Your anecdote means nothing, and is a prime example of why we don't use anecdote instead of actual data - if people are put off engaging with actual medical services and instead are bamboozled by this sort of woo, bad things can and will happen.
That’s the thing. Mac and Windows both have their major UI failures and both suck in their own shitty ways but at the end of the day Mac is built on a good solid platform while Windows underneath the hood is... Windows.

It’s not even comparable.
Yes and No. Depends on what is cheap for you? There is the Marvell Espressobin http://espressobin.net/ at around 80US$.
They also have the MachiatoBin, but that can't be considered cheap anymore, except if you need the two 10GB Ethernet ports.
Honestly i don't get the need for SATA, because since USB3 this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USB_Attached_SCSI mostly compensates the lack of it. It's fast enough for the little things and has the added benefit of availability in ready to use enclosures, whith power delivery over USB @2.5 Inches. If you need more/faster, just use some recent Celeron @Mini-ITX, or so.
The main results of the experiment in the first paper is:

They used 48 samples

* 2 male -> no grow

* 6 non-pregnant females -> no grow

* 40 pregnant females -> 12 no grow | 5 poor grow | 23 grow

Mi guess is that in the press article they calculate 28/40 = 70%.
What is a trivial existential quantifier and what property identifies them?
The WHO is a source of information. The decisions made based on that information by various countries is completely irrelevant to anything I'm trying to say.

The WHO chose to recommend against travel bans. This was the information they shared with the world. If countries chose to enact such bans anyway - good for them: they knew better than to believe the WHO. The WHO, compared with 4chan, was in January the inferior source of public information about the virus.
So true, so often.
Reuters: As virus advances, doctors rethink rush to ventilate
Speaking vaguely of this topic, the ciphersuite of WireGuard:

How much trouble do you think it would be for a CPU designer to include a ChaCha20 accelerator or some sort of round/double-round/quarter-round³ primitive? It seems like the cost would be an order of magnitude lower than something like an AES accelerator, and way easier to validate.

I keep wondering if it's going to be this year, the next, or the one after that; but ChaCha20† is getting really popular, so I can imagine something like this could be very valuable, especially on a chip for an infrastructure provider like CloudFlare‡ , or any VPN megacompany.

† which may have more rounds than necessary, good reason not to do all 20 in one primitive if that costs latency/throughput

‡ who use ChaCha-based TLS for devices with poor, nonexistent, or misconfigured AES accel.

³ this relatively straightforward operation https://github.com/jedisct1/libsodium/blob/master/src/libsod...
I once got lost in typical U.S. suburbia and the first door I knocked the guy wouldn't tell me the direction I needed to go but insisted on driving me there.

I was conscious of being percieved as a potential threat in that situation. But me being percieved as a likely nuisance to be ignored didn't cross my mind.
> I don't think 2X is "approximately", but I do agree that we don't have enough data right now to know the exact difference so I can't say for sure that COVID-19 is more than 2X as dangerous.

I think we have enough data to exclude more than 2x. The range of potential danger has influenza's risk right in the middle of it.

> I also agree that COVID-19 does appear to be way less dangerous for the under 18 group. However practically none of the under 18 group is able to isolate themselves away from the 18 and over group so there is no real societal benefit to this distinction.

There's a huge societal benefit to this distinction, because if children are at relatively low risk, and also do not seem to be index cases very often for how COVID-19 is spread to households, schools can reopen. This is different from most diseases, where schools are often a key mechanism of disease spread. e.g. see https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.26.20044826v...
Really curious how well the salesforce integration works. Heroku has a product that does this (Heroku Connect), but it doesn't work well with large tables and you have to pay them an obscene amount of money to even properly test it (which might have something to do with them being owned by Salesforce).

So many companies with tons of data trapped in Salesforce's expensive walled garden and no way to get it out. Dumping it to SQL is the first step to freedom.
The issue is you didn’t factor in immunity fading and requiring it again. So those that survive will need to roll dice at a random later date.
> They then go on to essentially say that it won't work (and spoilers: It didn't work, they were 100% correct).

How didn't it work?

All of the really successful countries at handling this pandemic continue to have significant travel measures that interfere with international traffic.

For example: Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, South Korea, Vietnam, even (infuriatingly, given their opposition to anyone else doing it [0]) Mainland China itself!

[0] https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/china-praises-canada-slams-u-s-...
The median is one measure of central tendency, though less commonly used than the mean when referring to “average”.
> a very smart bloke with an honest-to-goodness PhD in a virus-related field

How do I embolden text on HN? When a person with a PhD is talking about something related to their PhD it is imprudent policy to ban their content because it disagrees with a body who are (a) political, (b) purposefully slow to recommend things and (c) have covered themselves with something a lot less pleasant than glory with their response to the worst pandemic we've seen in a century. Turns out he has a biological Nature publication too [0]. I want to hear his opinion even and especially if it contradicts the WHO on coronavirus. I like to live dangerously; I'll take the risk that he isn't a specialist in respiratory infections and viruses.

YouTube has picked a policy that bans good advice if they don't like the tone or word choice on behalf of an organisation I believe the US government is trying to defund for incompetence. This is not a move that should inspire confidence in their fact-checking abilities. I'd bet they don't have doctors or nurses enforcing this policy either but it'd be nice to be wrong.

[0] https://www.nature.com/articles/366066a0
That’s a very small population.
Well, than I don't know what to say to you. I have already explained my view on the proportions, I have already given argument and explanation for it, and you seem to be intent on not supporting your own conclusions apart from a rather lame "you're a contrarianist" argument.

Why not actually defend your arguments and attack mine instead of circling about the issue with "this actual real life example is a what if hypothetical" and hastily drawn up dichotomies?

(Particularly this hammering that these are contrived examples is bordering on the ridiculous: we know this is true!)

You've lost your benefit of the doubt with this comment.
AI for full self-driving by Andreyj Karpathy
You can buy 'em now on Alibaba. Not FDA approved, Your Accuracy May Vary.
I recently wrote an essay about this. https://selftaught.blog/the-end-of-college/

In it, I talked about how when schools embrace remote learning people will start questioning why they should pay tens of thousands of dollars for a professor teaching them online when they could just take a Udemy class, so it is interesting you said that.

Are you majoring in computer science?

Yes, many companies use degrees to quickly filter applicants. But tons of companies don't.

In my experience, once I got my first job as a software engineer without a CS degree, no one asked about it again later.

You could also consider going to an online programming boot camp like App Academy. It would be much less expensive and they have a great track record of getting their student's jobs.
Off course not. It's one of the worst things that can happen. But these claims are out there and people and governments are talking about them. My goal is just conversation and getting inputs and I don't think not talking about bad things make them go away.
Speak You’re Branes. Sadly even the archive is gone now.

https://pointless-letters.tumblr.com/ is probably the closest modern substitute.
Amazon needs more competition. Other markets like Walmart are stepping up, but not quickly enough.
No, but it would make Alexandria the pirate bay.
The two versions can run in parallel so you will never be in a situation where the sysadmin is forced to take down the v1 server to set up a v2 server. It's the sysadmins responsibility not to put users in that situation. Users might try to use the wrong version at first, but there's no reason for an admin to break the working VPN before the transition is complete.
This is all great news if you're building a new social project...
NYC is not suburbia. I believe a higher percentage are still working outside of their homes (and, in many cases, that also means travelling on public transport), and a smaller percentage have the financial and transport resources to significantly reduce the frequency of their shopping trips. Apartment living means a greater exposure to your neighbors whenever you do enter or exit. The sampling in NYC, while far from ideal, may therefore be better than the other regions, in that shopping behaviour may not be as dominant a risk factor as you suppose.

For the same reasons, plus the likelehood that the virus arrived in NYC early and frequently, NYC's figures cannot be extrapolated to the rest of the state or country.

I would like to see how these figures match up to the sewage-sampling method of estimation.
>Oh, and if you want to book via mobile app, they charge more for that.

Source?
These books will tell them nothing.

I legit think that there is only one way of engineering complicated software and that is Entity-Component-System (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entity_component_system).
Correct. Vulkan was announced at GDC in 2015 and released in 2016, Metal was released in 2014.
Exactly. I would love to use Linux, but switching back to the traditional-resolution laptop screens after working on the high-res MacbookPro screens is not something I ever want to do. It would be fantastic if Linux came to support it well.
Good point, is Amazon only PPC?

I mean, they own the whole platform so click fraud would be easy to get away with but hopefully that's not happening. I'm not sure if anyone has the ability to audit their honesty.
You mean like here? https://linux-sunxi.org/SATA
Just because it is implemented to tick a check box doesn't mean it is implemented in a good way...
> And I am arguing, in the hypothetical case that the SC study is correct (I think it is flawed), then we have under estimated R0.

I don't necessarily believe the Santa Clara County study, but there are plenty of other alternatives, including a pretty likely one: gross undercounting at the start of the epidemic and/or earlier cryptic spread in communities. This is something that SCC public health officials / Dr. Sara Cody has stated in recent days is her belief-- I am not sure I agree.

At this point we're accumulating a lot of evidence IFR is 0.3-0.5%.
It also comes from the Absurdly laudatory praise that WHO was giving China in January about how they were setting standards for transparency and how their quick behavior had saved the world.
This is exactly why you wouldn’t need a challenge trial: lots of people are already regularly exposed to the virus. Immunize some of them and see if the infection rate is lower in that group vs a control.
Spring – Simple and Powerful Flutter Animation Kit
TLDR: « Va te faire foutre. »
On one level this is a funny story, on another level it is a great example of poverty and lack of opportunity leading to choices that turn dollars into pennies: destroying a resource that can generate a huge amount of value for a much lower value but more accessible use. Same thing with ripping up train tracks to sell for scrap metal, which happens in some parts of the world.
There are about 2mm active and reserve military members and about 400mm Americans on the whole, so there are, at any time, 0.5% Americans in the military. Assuming the average enlistment is 1 term or 4 years, and people have about 80 year lifespans, then you get ~20 (80/4) "generations" of enlistments over a person's lifespan. 20 * 0.5% is 10%, so about what you would expect for "living veterans" if you had a constant cycle of veterans through the system. That's serious back of the napkin math (lots of assumptions!), so it might be incorrect, but I think it shows that 10% isn't too far from what you might expect, right?
It's weird but once you get used to it I think it's cool. No more text munging!
Unfortunately, you can't use Ed25519 keys unless you have the latest/newest model(s) of Yubikey and that Yubikey came with at least a specific firmware version (5.2.3, IIRC).
This really hit me for some reason. I’m a non white American, and not to exaggerate, afraid of knocking on a stranger’s door.

I’d be quite worried if I ever became stranded in a white neighborhood and had to knock on a random door for assistance.
> Almost no one in previous history had an ability to directly target poor, uneducated masses which their own content created in their own bedroom.

So only allowing those in authority the right to directly target poor, unedcated masses is better?

> Also let’s be honest - the likes of Hitler actually came from the likes of people who would tell you to stop listening to WHO advice and to go start fires in 5G towers.

No they didn't. They came from the group that censors and tells everyone there is only one right answer and my way is the right way and you can't question it. So lets be real honest here.

> and we’re obviously not dealing with an easy, black-and-white answer.

Actually we are. It's a matter of principle.

Also, I'm american. Why exactly should I or anyone else be censored based on some unnaccountable international organization? Coronavirus isn't the virus we should be worried about, the real disease is the disease of globalism. The commodization of humans, the demand for mindless adherence to authority and the loss of rights as we search for the lowest common denominator to appease everyone.
It's a trap, because your options boil down to:

(a) Using FIPS cryptography, which is inferior, to placate the USG.

(b) Using best-practices cryptography, and being incompatible with some places that mandate FIPS.

(c) Supporting both FIPS and non-FIPS cryptography, which creates handshake bugs and gives you lowest-common-denominator security.

I think you can reasonable argue that (a) and (b) are both superior to (c); I think WireGuard made the right choice here.

In the long run, for enterprise environments, I don't think this much matters. Even with FIPS cryptography, stodgy enterprises won't adopt WireGuard until it becomes so prevalent elsewhere that they have to, simply because IPSEC has more standardization. So the WireGuard task is simply to make it so prevalent everywhere else that stodgy enterprises no long have a vote.
> The problem is they give one body the ultimate authority on what is truth. Science, epidemiology & politics is more complex than that.

That's an excellent point.

> Google should instead have a list of allowed sources (e.g. WHO, CDC, NHS, etc) and explicitly disallowed sources (states owned media organizations, politicians and intelligence agencies).

Well, isn't the BBC at least government affiliated? And yes, I'm aware that it's supposedly entirely independent.

And about intelligence agencies, the NSA has contributed hugely to computer security. It's true that they're arguably the world's greatest hackers, but that actually increases their credibility. Except for the backdoors that they hide ;)
Scientists Create Device That Works Just Like the Human Brain
Half as Interesting has a good YouTube video about this:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=Wg_uXCYeZ30
It’s surprising to me that the author finds it improbable that we don’t know many ancient writers. It’s always been my default assumption that the vast majority of all works and writers of antiquity were lost. I would expect that, like today, there is a relatively small number of hugely popular works, which had a decent chance of surviving, and a massive long tail of less popular works that were relatively obscure, especially over the time scale, didn’t get copied, and so therefore were lost. Of course we might get a few random selections from the long tail, but not many compared to the number of total works. I would have supposed there was easily a ratio of 100:1, at least.
If I order a bag of whole grain to use for food, is there a way to determine that it has not suffered such indignities? (besides reliance on the plastics industry)
Dr. John Campbell, who posts daily on Coronavirus news internationally, and who also dives deep into the physiologic processes around viruses, illnesses, and immune function, is often at odds with the WHO. And he generally has a compelling argument for why, often quoting scientific literature.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg

(I highly recommend watching his videos!)

If YouTube shuts John Campbell down, they will be doing a major disservice to this global fight against a virus.
Yeah, I've definitely seen that on HN and it can be very frustrating that's for sure. Unless you've been in the system, it is very hard to understand why some things are the way they are.

Side note: I hope your second year is going well. I know they've had a lot of changes for USMLE because of coronavirus. Stay safe, and feel free to reach out if you ever have questions about med school or just want to chat. :)
Wumao