skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Sweden has actually leveled off and had flat new case growth over the last week [1], same as in Canada where they have shut the world down (in terms of flatness not numbers). Further CFR is almost exclusively based on age of acquisition and the extent to which hospitals are available. In Sweden hospitals are available. The disease is exactly the same everywhere so it’s much more to do with demographics.

I mean they’ve had 15000 recorded cases (of course since they’re letting the disease roam free without a general population testing regimen that’s going to be a minuscule fraction of the denominator which they expect to reach 7 million ish) and 1500 deaths. Crude CFR is 10%.

Bloomberg and the government as of 10 hours ago claim their strategy of “ignoring” a disease that’s just not that fatal is working great, and that unlike the rest of the world they’ll never have to deal with it again as they’re en route to developing herd immunity. [2]

IMO it’s becoming more and more clear that we collectively lost our minds in panic over something that’s just not that bad. The Swedish model is one to replicate.

[1] https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/

[2] https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/arti...
It doesn't have to be governments. 3rd parties can build these systems either by themselves or paid for by governments and several governments can use/buy the same system. Also, these (some of these) can hopefully be open source apps, too. Pretty important as there will be privacy concerns (rightfully) which can hurt in two ways. First: the concerns could be real and the data collection could be problematic. Second: whether or not the first is the case, this may prevent a lot of people installing it.

If it's a mandatory update that sidesteps the second issue, but then it could hurt Google's and Apple's image. Also, could cause serious problems with the EU (think GDPR). Even if they really can't get any meaningful and sensitive data out of it, they would be running the risk of an investigation.
And here is one [0] from another reputable news source that says more or less the opposite.

I think it's too early to call out a "winner strategy" - I think there will be a new wave when the different countries opens up - but that's my guess, and hey - I program computers on a daily basis, as far away as you probably can get from this kind of science.

(and yeah, I am a Swede)

[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-si...
Builds are cheap compared to running in production. Stop being a cheapskate.
That's a sobering argument. But I wonder how it compares to other major disruptions, such as major wars. Or even the 2008 recession.
Why do you want to college in the US?

Why do you want to go to college? You already have a career.
I agree with those that reference the govt policies that all orgs are suppose to follow. This could really turn into your career. I went to school with a blind network engineer and he was top of the class. Stay strong brother.
Their health system didn’t get overwhelmed. Thus they could provide every patient with the best care.
I became aware of Spark a couple of weeks ago. On the one hand, I was irritated that someone else was on the same "voice-controlled guitar playing" thread as me, but then (a) it's validating and (b) they're not really going the same place I am.

Thingamagig understands the underlying composition which means it can automate tones, loopers, lights, cameras, etc. That need was the genesis of this project and that's where its going. Everybody else (including Spark, Fender Play) seems to think the playalong is the end goal, which is why they short circuit the hard work of building the composition library by integrating Spotify or whatever.

Maybe they're right. Maybe I'm right. Maybe we're both right. We'll see, I guess.
Woah can $100k really take you 5-10 years? What are cities you're thinking of?
Also, if you're high risk (I may be - obesity) this is a scary disease, and honestly the longer you wait to get infected the better your chances. More local medical doctors will have experience treating it, there will be more studies on drugs, more help available etc. Your chances go up astronomically on a long enough time scale. So why rush it?

I have the luxury of being a freelancer working from home, so this is mostly my normal, but I know it hurts a lot of people, but so does being dead - or having lung issues for life or neurological ones.

Some broadway actor lost his leg over the weekend because of this.

TLDR; It definitely helps w/ hospitals so they can still function it also gives time to find and create better treatments.
Life seeded implies that life still went through abiogenesis somewhere else.

I agree that we can't know the exact means, just that abiogenesis happened, but we can still calculate the probability of our conditions needing to occur for abiogenesis to happen.
Thanks for sharing!

As someone who hasn't heard of the Baymard Institute before, I was slightly confused at how their site was marketing their research as a product as opposed to sharing their research for academic and community engagement.

Although less research-based, I am a big fan of the UX Stack Exchange (https://ux.stackexchange.com/) for informing decisions on UI/UX design details; the answers usually provide clear justification and diagrams describing possible solutions.
Awesome! Another option if you don't want to take over right-click behavior could be shift-click (holding shift and clicking), or similar.
Assuming it's true for many that go to community colleges, why are people so committed to the idea that it's cause and effect? What does this claimed pattern have to do with anything inherent about a community college?

Overspending to make a big commitment to something in the hopes that leads to success is generally, on average, terrible advice, in my opinion, even if you think there's some example of it working for somebody at some time.
R0 is environment dependent. It is probably in the 2-3 range for say California using hospitalization data.
This makes me hopeful for the future, the next decade is likely to be amazing for healthcare research.

Hopefully some good comes out of this unfolding tragedy and drives the next generation to critical issues like healthcare & climate change than building yet another photo/video sharing app.
Then I suppose I projecting (psychologically). I would stop working. I'm barely working now. But I shouldn't assume I'm typical. Thanks for the feedback.
I wonder how this plays out with the NBA, since Rudy Gobert and many other players have tested positive and experienced those same kind of symptoms.
> You can always find a crazy example of something or other and choose to blow it out of proportion, while ignoring positive developments on the ground.

So to be clear, you believe: Cuomo deliberately ignored credible data from his people suggesting that the state would not need 30,000 - 40,000 ventilators in order to attempt to do political damage to Trump?

> In the meanwhile I'm glad Trump ignored the political damage Cuomo was inflicting

A notable feature of Trump's response to the crisis has been his inability to ignore criticism from others. One could argue that the silly video he aired last week was a byproduct of his total inability to ignore political damage from folks like Cuomo!

> Doing so would be utterly disastrous to other hotspots

I agree, in hindsight. But it would also have been far fewer than New York said it needed. Cuomo believed he needed 30,000. The national stockpile is around 9,000.

From The Guardian on 2nd April: "[New York state] has 2,200 [ventilators] in its stockpile and Cuomo said 350 people severely afflicted by the virus are coming into hospitals every night needing such breathing assistance."
Perhaps Bond could spend a day or two with Dirty Harry. Calahan could show him a thing or two about revolvers.
Companies are in a sense above the state jurisdictions of everywhere but where they are headquartered. Companies regularly withdraw from markets because the regulatory environment is inhospitable.
Sounds like a perfect time for a windfall tax. I mean, these companies do want to show their solidarity during a pandemic, don't they?
> Such attitude makes it significantly less likely to have kids in the first place: why would a potential parent want to get in debt?

That might depend on how much value they place on their own life and upbringing.

>If we want to decrease population of humans, then spreading "parents owe to their kids" attitude is one of the ways to accomplish that.

Some things are what they are. This is the reality that's left when the harmful & unproductive assumptions are stripped away. I believe you are right that some less courageous folks will be discouraged when faced with this.

That's okay too. Folks who opt out of parenthood shouldn't be thought less of.
I studied engineering. There were a ton of scholaships available to any student. The financial aid office generally never finds out about except that the receive a check from some organization or company and are told to deposit in my account.

There are plenty of scholarships, just the communication about them is extremely poor. You have to get on every mailing list your university has, and constantly ask professors if they've heard about any scholarships.

Many of the scholarships I got were from companies or organizations that reached out directly to professors.
That seems more like an implementation detail. It certainly could replace social security, but then again in the US social security payouts are tied to how much you've paid into it over the years. Then again, UBI would be paid for, albeit less directly, but tax payments as well so it might not be an important distinction.

And of course it would be important to peg the UBI to different costs of living for different regions.
The examples for the decoy effect are absolutely awful.

Usually what is done is that you choose a minimum price lets say an ISP offers 25mbit for $20, 50mbit for $35 and 100mbit for $50. The 25mbit plan is obviously poor value but at the same time it is still the cheapest option. Some customers truly don't need more than 25mbit but if you are looking to spend more than $20 then you are more likely to go straight for 100mbit than for 50mbit.
> Weibull, logistic, boosting, state-space

Could you write a model that will tell you how fast your car is going, just by using math? Or are there innumerable latent variables which define a state space so large that the only meaningful prediction you could make is a short-term linear extrapolation?

I mean, what would make anyone think that there is any constant parameter set for a model that would predict COVID-19 case evolution, when governments and the population are taking active measures to combat spread, such as perhaps the most dramatic shift in the physical interconnectivity of human society in history? It's fundamentally impossible to predict something that is changing in an unpredictable manner.

The reason why we can make meaningful inferences about the accuracy of weather models is because we have a good understanding of the underlying physics which decribes the time evolution of the system. However, the combination of the chaotic dynamics of that system and the limitations of simulation yields accurate short-term probablistic predictions and inaccurate long-term probabilistic predictions.

SARIMAX, in contrast, doens't know if it's predicting shampoo sales, $GOOG, or epidemiology. Although I am curious what your exogenous regressors and lag/differencing/seasonal orders were, if you'd care to share. Did you fit them via an information criterion approach?
> Can't remember seeing any controlled studies on the efficacy of social distancing either.

No, but we have mountains of evidence from respiratory diseases throughout history, including the common cold and seasonal flu, that distancing lowers transmission.

It's why people are encouraged to stay home from work when they are sick, and why in normal situations, people in lines of work where they cannot afford to stay home from work get sick more often.

Social distancing is one of the oldest public health protocols we have for disease transmission control.

Sure, many old practices for disease prevention amount to nothing but old wives tales, but social distancing likely isn't one of them.
This is not surprising. There are firms that profit on both sides.
Why is this research? Everyone knows that software can control fan speed either directly with commands or indirectly with load. Everyone also knows you can hear the sounds fans make and microphones can pick up sounds or vibrations. It seems to be just a mundane engineering job or hobby project. Maybe there's some value in getting a higher bandwidth or longer range detection or whatever, but the basic principle is too obviously true to need to be proved.
She got a Dr. rer. nat.[0], which is equivalent to a PhD[1].

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Merkel#Education_and_sc...
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dr._rer._nat.
Is it truly the only thing they could do? They could force phones to use different defaults. They could ban preinstallation of their apps. They could force preinstallation of competing apps. They could throttle them so their services get slow. They could force providers to show a large banner in addition to the site when showing it. They could I suppose add an additional tax on android phones to hurt Google, or even through the providers tax Facebook and Google usage until compliance. They could ban their apps and app stores. They could freeze bank accounts. They could send the army to destroy their hq. Banning their websites is merely the most sensible action in this situation.
https://baymard.com/
Hackers Steal $25M Worth of Cryptocurrency from Uniswap and Lendf.me
Yes, the VM gets the entire GPU to itself as if it were bare-metal.
Another interpretation is that a lot of people on the internet (HN, reddit) have actually seen net improvements to their life from the lockdown.

For the introverted tech worker that prefers to work from home, the quarantine hasn't really negatively impacted their routine that much, and it might have actually lifted any peer pressure to go out and socialize with friends/co-workers/family.

For someone in that situation, there's not much of a benefit to advocate for reopening, and the deadlier the virus seems, the longer the lockdown will continue.
What does GUN use instead of IPFS? What are the pros and cons of the 2 approaches?
> This is completely contradictory. You should stop reading fake news or social media reports, because this is where some utter stupid statements like this come from.

It depends what exactly 'mild' means I guess.
I might not have worded it well (not my first language etc). Just to be sure I went to the most reliable sources available (not just standard news - it's in German though, they cite a lot of papers if anyone is interested, but most are for SARS-CoV-1, 45-48 specifically talk about long-term damages) and I still stand by my statement, though the phrasing I chose make it appear more drastic than I meant it.

If everyone gets it and a few percent of the population get lasting damage (which from a quick paper survey does not seem totally unrealistic), is that acceptable?

(https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus...)

(eg https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1440-1843...)
Yes. The VM guest operating system's GPU drivers are not aware of the fact that they're running in a VM, and have full transparent access to all the hardware resources of the GPU that's assigned to that VM.
The conspiracy theorists almost had it right. It’s not tinfoil hats we need, it’s tinfoil bags and pockets.
> It certainly was.

I don't see anywhere in the article where it tells how they tried telling customers the advantages of the 220 option and how it would be a better value for them.
Surely just installing an app voluntarily would get enough tracing to be effective?

As a kiwi who has spent half my life living in different countries, I can say trust in the government here, while not universal, is higher than anywhere else I've been. I think most people would do it
Yes, you GPU behaves exactly as if it was outside a VM, so multiple monitors do work.
I’m really sorry that you have to face that and wish I had better advice.

My employer is the U.S. federal government and I would highly recommend considering looking at government (or contractor) jobs: we take very seriously the need to serve ALL of the public and front-end engineers who deeply understand and value accessibility are extremely valuable contributors since they can provide the subjective guidance which no level of automated tool or guideline can provide.

The GSA’s 18F has a great guide to building accessible websites:

https://accessibility.18f.gov/

(The BBC guide is also good: http://www.bbc.co.uk/guidelines/futuremedia/accessibility/)

I’d treat that as both an area to learn the tools for personal reasons - e.g. get comfortable with the accessibility tools in your favorite operating system - and as an area to learn more. There’s a pretty good story for web accessibility these days but a lot of people do not make much use of it and someone who can make an entire team more efficient has a somewhat uncommon selling point.
Do we know yet whether the clusters of fatalities among families are due to higher exposure rates or some genotypic susceptibility to the worst effects of the illness?

Or is that just that the family clusters are good news copy (ugh) and over-represented?
Most US universities need to comply too
You might just be able to pop out your Intel wireless card and install a compatible broadcom card. They don't seem to be too expensive so could be a cool project during this time.
My university also received a RAPID grant - https://www.udel.edu/udaily/2020/march/covid-research-superc...
Would this have convinced you to short home equity mezzanine tranches in 2007? I'd like to think I'd have had the foresight to see what was coming if someone was pitching it to me like this. If I'm being honest however I'm not sure how convinced I'd have been by these slides.
Writing extra error prone code just to make easier debugging seems like a bad trade-off.

Better to learn how to use a debugger, and check preconditions, and log state changes, and write tests.
This statement, however, is pure bullshit and makes the Apple zealot-fanboys look like fools

> That machine in that case became what was truly American's first home computer as we know it.

Commodore was clearly before Apple with a turn-key home computer. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commodore_PET
I think some business meetings could be run really well with visuals but no audio. I think Jeff Bezos does a silent meeting thing where everyone reads the brief. Something like that.
"The only central register of card IDs would be held by the Government and isolated from other Government databases, so it could not be used for anything other than Covid-19 contact tracing."

What does "could not" mean, anyway?
I'd do the opposite. Peg UBI to the lowest cost of living, and have separate short-term insurance-only programs (on top of UBI) for folks living in higher-cost areas. That way, those who are unwilling or unable to work in the longer term will be incented to move to low-cost areas and relieve pressure elsewhere.
About 1. not even counting death, we don't know what the long term effects on the lung capacity of the people who recovered are. Also, everyone reports "80% of mild cases", with a definition of mild that includes things that reasonable people would definitely not call mild. Essentially, as long as doctors don't tell you you have to be on O2, you have a mild case. People with mild cases may well end up with damaged lungs.
Hackintosh has a tendency to create amusing technical problems, so I thought I'd share some I've come across over the years.

---

I had one computer that would only boot if a specific USB Bluetooth adapter was connected. If it wasn't inserted while the computer turned on, I'd get a kernel panic during the bootup process. However, I could unplug the adapter after boot and everything would be fine.

I didn't notice the problem until several months after I'd set up the Hackintosh, when I tried to replace my current Bluetooth adapter with a more powerful "class 1" dongle.

(I don't remember how I eventually fixed this.)

---

I had another computer which wouldn't boot outside of safe mode. I couldn't remember the flag for turning on extra debug messages, but instead of looking it up like a smart person, I guessed and typed "debug=yes". This did not enable any extra messages, but it did cause the computer to boot correctly.

As far as I can tell, debug=yes is not a valid kernel flag. At least at the time, there was no information about it anywhere on the internet. But this computer would not boot without it. Removing the flag caused it to once again get stuck, and adding it back made everything work again.

---

This one didn't happen to me personally. I was browsing some Hackintosh forum, and I came across a thread titled (paraphrasing):

> Help! Audio only works while I'm moving my mouse!

This might be my favorite technology problem ever.
Yeah but the Tailrisk guy is not an epidemiologist, he's out of treasury and naturally has is more economy focused outlook.

One person's "unreasonable" can be another's "sensible caution"
Doesn't matter. If capital controls get put in place and bitcoin also loses 80% of its value, you still have 100x the liquidity that you would have without it.
The fatality rate of countries with active epidemics is skewed by a variety of factors:

- With exponential growth, most cases will new and so not become potentially lethal. This can lower the observed fatality rate (I think this explained Germany's original "great" rate which doesn't look at great any more).

- With cases rising quickly, most countries don't have infrastructure or the time to increase testing (US testing is failing on multiple levels but even France, Spain and Italy are just overwhelmed with the sick and testing is less important).

- With cases rising quickly, the fatality rate increases as hospitals are no longer able to provide adequate care.

- Different countries have different age-profiles and the disease hits the elderly harder (but once hospitals break down, the odds for the young decrease).

South Korea's fatality rate is similar to the ostensible fatality rate of Turkey and Luxembourg but likely for different rate. We probably won't have a complete idea what's happened until these events are done.
If you're interested in hearing about Sweden's strategy, what has and hasn't worked, etc. then I can highly recommend this interview with chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell from earlier this week [1]. It's one hour long but he answers most questions I think people would have about Sweden's strategy.

To give a very quick summary: One-third of the fatalities have been in elderly homes which were not protected as well as they should have been and this is something that they are working on.
It seems like recommending that people stay home if they have any symptoms is good enough to keep reduce the spread of the virus enough for the health care system to keep up. And a lot of measures have voluntarily been taken by individuals and companies to reduce the spread as well so it's not like Sweden is just business as usual or something like that.

[1]: https://youtu.be/Wo10IIMHYXk?t=651