skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period. We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)
I'm sorry the concept of boundaries being used to define specific areas are beyond you. Not sure how else I can help. If you look at the boundaries of any modern map of the geography of the earth, nothing is in straight lines. The borders of countries are very complicated shapes, yet you pretty much know if you are in a country or not. Cities are the same way, yet you probably know when you leave your city. Breaking into smaller neighborhoods it gets even more confusing, but yet again, you probably know when you're in your neighborhood or you're in the one next door. Knowing those boundaries comes from experience traveling around the areas. It'll happen the same way if you actually study astronomy versus just being obtuse about a subject on the internet.
Not really. Look at what happened in 2008. The Fed's LSAPs significantly increased the money supply with no feedthrough to inflation or a weaker dollar. The inflation process is much more complicated than laypeople tend to think. Weaker labor unions, wealth inequality, trade, demographic factors, etc. all contribute to the weakening of the linkage between increases in the money supply and the inflation rate/dollar strength.

One of the reasons for the monetary stimulus is that in a crisis, everyone wants dollars. Which is why the dollar continues to strengthen despite all of those efforts. Additionally, significant portions of the stimulus (repo, dollar swap lines, etc.) are unwound naturally and automatically as the crisis abates. So it's not like the money sticks around to weaken the currency.

Also, increasing bank reserves from monetary policy doesn't tend to increase lending one-for-one as banks have not been reserve constrained in a long time. Lending is dominated by capital requirements and risk tolerance. So asset purchases lead to increased reserve levels, which strengthens financial conditions and increases lending (and thus Main Street consumption and investment) somewhat, but it's not like $2 trillion of monetary stimulus => $2 trillion of ketchup bought off the shelf.
Can anyone with access give some info on the details and/or applications of this? The idea of self-organizing complexity in general can be very important in math and from what I hear biology. The vague idea can underlie cellular repair and such, if the apparent complexity can actually be encoded much smaller.
Why do bats carry so many dangerous diseases? [video]
Emergency powers to protect us after 9/11 are still in place — two decades later.

Emergency powers to fund world wars are still in place — eight decades later.

It never goes away.
500k extra, or early deaths?

I can't imagine that 500k people got cancer from 2008, and if they had cancer they may have already been approaching death.

Numbers like that seem extremely suspect because they can be spun however you like by assuming how things would have been.
And if it's law that you can uninstall it when you've been vaccinated? It can be unmade.
That is not at all clear. The Nembro article, which based solely on the article itself looks like the ~upper bound on the ~worst case, posits 1% age adjusted deaths. The world population pyramid is very different from Italy's, so I bet it won't even be 1%.

Then, it's not about lives, it's about years of life lost. The average age of the deaths is >80 in Italy, close to that in WA (median is >80, not sure about the average). In years of life lost, one boy who was shot while the lockdown was being enforced in Kenya (iirc) is "worth" on the order of 10-20 average COVID dead (even if you don't weight earlier years of life heavier, which I would). A 30-year-old committing suicide in isolation in the US (acquaintance of a friend) is worth close to that.

Then, if you want a real example of loss of life from a major economic crisis, look at life expectancy in Russia between 1980-2000, or birth rates during the same and GD.

Finally, I would also argue having experienced the former that for (low) 100s of millions of people in ex-USSR, you have to count the 90ies as years at least partially lost, because they were spent in survival mode with giant loss of time and human potential. Personally I'd rather live a good life and die at 80 than throw away my e.g. 30ies working two jobs and trying to find where I can buy cheaper pasta, and live till 85.
This is completely wrong. Result is either success or failure, so an R<E1, R<E2, A>> can never contain both E1 and E2 at the same time.

Validation types work the way you describe and require a monoidal "error" side, but famously do not form monads (though they are applicative functors).
A Guide Through the Poetic Theology of the Triduum
Still can’t use some very basic function. https://caniuse.com/#feat=filesystem
Just gimmicky update. Pretty useless.
As someone who's worked in over 20 companies as a technical consultant, I mostly agree. However, some companies are better than others at onboarding new engineers. My rule of thumb is to make a meaningful PR within the first week, and do whatever is necessary to make that happen. That sometimes involves bugging the crap out of people with questions, but I try to make up for it with a fast ramp and prodigious output.
The eternal influence of Twin Peaks
Compilers are really smart, so in many cases they will vectorize without even asking - no hassle involved. Some examples here: https://llvm.org/docs/Vectorizers.html
How to build a realtime poll app with firestore and TypeScript
Show HN: Animation CPU is a modern mobile-first platform and pure OS
Made for humans - work remotely

Mobile-first IDE and ACPUL is pure a programming language

Privacy & security first

NoCode, UI/UX, and AI first

Advanced architecture: no NULL, no halt or crash, cross-platform C++ core, bare metal, tabs or spaces solution :)

Real-time back-step debugger, record full history of program development cycle with code & video. Yes, Bret Victor - inventing on principle is possible right now

Just look video: https://vimeo.com/363434798

More videos: https://vimeo.com/user100437348

Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/acpustudio

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https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?u=32176608

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Author is here
It's a prediction given previous containment measures. Without those measures, a far higher count is predicted.

We'll probably wear masks this entire time, and there'll probably another closure next time the disease surges. Until we find an effective treatment or a vaccine.
I didn’t think the question was whether it was legal for California to defy federal laws or actually secede (which of course it wouldn’t be illegal ), but rather whether the official making the claim in words (but not actions) that California is a “nation state” was legal
While it sounds doable in theory, it’s hardly doable in today‘s (well, yesterday’s) market conditions.

Low interest rates and an abundance of cheap money looking for yield distort the environment. Your debt-free, slow growth company will be wiped out by some bilion $ valued cash-burning startup.
How many of those XP vulnerabilities were IE vulnerabilities?
Which template is your favorite?
i've only seen 2 at my workplace. There are positive incentives for hitting women recruit goals but also there are no negative consequences for not doing so.
> So what?

So, people are choosing to go to expensive universities that don't subsidize their tuition. It's a choice, and there are much cheaper options for most of the country.

If you're paying $30K in tuition and planning on a "normal" career path, then you're paying way too much.

> This whole post seems a little holier than thou

Well, if sound financial advice is perceived as a personal attack, then we're never going to solve this problem.

People whose parents can support them by allowing them to live at home for free during college can graduate with almost no debt by attending a cheap institution, working while going to school, and getting a head start in high school or community college. And most people whose parents cannot allow them to live at home will qualify for state and federal grants.

This country does have affordable college options for most people. The problem is that most people who go to college choose the more expensive options (state flagships and non-elite private universities) even though their local state university branch campuses are capable of providing a perfectly adequate education at a third of the price.

More importantly, the only way we'll reduce the debt burden on undergraduates is by providing more subsidy to state branch campuses. That will only work, however, if people choose to go to those state branch campuses. There's just no world where the taxpayer subsidizes a big chunk of room&board&tuition at research institutions for the majority of college students. For the top ~5% of students by merit, sure. But that model just doesn't make any sense when there are far cheaper options.

> eg Grey's Anatomy

Medical debt is an entirely separate issue. Intertwining it with the undergraduate debt issue confuses things -- the solution to med school debt will be different from the solution to undergrad debt.
It didn't seem that long ago that having an island shaped like a skull was a cost-prohibitive proposition, but seems we're almost there.
It would be nice if end to end encryption was mandatory, instead of hand-wavingly allowed by saying implementations may encrypt the media stream and then sending it inside an insecure TLS stream. (They propose using an out of band session initiation protocol to exchange the keys.)
I'm amazed that this is even possible. I seem to recall that there are countries with unusable fighter jets, because the U.S. will no longer supply parts and expertise for maintenance. The article indeed states: "the purchase does include all of the RAAF's F/A-18 spare parts inventory and test equipment, valued at over a billion dollars alone."
It certainly could have if other countries had closed border with China early. But some news outlets were running unfortunate headlines.
> Is it worth the hassle only in rare cases?

Vectorization is not always faster. It's important to understand that modern processors can perform work on >100 instructions in a given cycle, and not all instructions take equal amounts of time. So reducing a dozen instructions to a single instruction doesn't necessarily mean that the single instruction is going to be faster.
I still think I'd have to disagree with you. What was benchmarked was NumPy/CuPy, and the numbers in the article are not flawed. It isn't that they are using NumPy/CuPy wrongly, that's what you'd do, and even if you try really hard to specify everything as float32 it still will have the same performance timing as in the article.

It would be interesting to compare it against a float64 version in Neanderthal as well I agree with that.

That said, a flawed benchmark would mean to me that it isn't indicative of the performance one can expect when actually using the library on real world use case, but for now this benchmark for NumPy/CuPy does seem to be indicative of what you'd expect.

Now, the next question is, for model accuracy vs scale, is going with float64 coercion always the ideal trade off? What if you still needed to squeeze more performance? Is it really a bad idea to do so by going down to float32? Especially considering how much faster GPU can accelerate that?
with databricks, its very easy to put a notebook into production. I've done it several times
Map Inches on Screen CSS?
> He now holds eight licenses with the Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms (ATF), allowing him to own military machine guns and cannons, as well as thousands of rounds of ammunition to fire through them.

Dude is totally not an intelligence asset of any kind. Just an enthusiast.
Best 10 Video Call Apps [video]
SIP has some disadvantageslike a lack of NAT awareness, a common issue of SIP implementations while being fully compliant with the standard - cant interoperate, incompatible extensions, long call setup time, and a lack of defined minimum codecs.

While I'm sure all of this will fix that, it becomes yet another protocol that will need to be supported - nor am I particularly convinced that encryption everywhere is something you always want (if I use SIP as an example, often packet captures are a hard requirement to troubleshoot why server A cant talk to server B).

I'm open to it though, the TL;DR posted elsewhere in the comments is much more digestible than the draft standard. But it looks like it solves some of the issues with SIP, but introduces its own other issues.
We have an excellent idea of how the disease progresses and what it looks like in countries that don’t isolate like Sweden. We will carry on and live with it, like we do with the flu. Mortality rate is .37% in Germany. Here in the US we are at around .5%. The CDC projects 60K total deaths, which is less than the flu.

Although I think it is doubtful, if it does end up killing 10-20% like the Spanish Flu then better to get it over with instead of stretching it out. The good news is that after the Spanish Flu we had the roaring 20’s so there is still light on the horizon.
The CDC is currently saying that this virus has an R0 of 5.7. Couple that with the many cases of casual spread (e.g. people who have gotten it with people they have barely interacted with), and the contrarian claims by this German study seem farcical.
I've always learned new technologies and stacks as needed before I start the gig, so I can crank straight away.
JVM does it to an extremely limited extent. Anything jitted, doesn't have a lot of time to do autovectorization. Even GCC/llvm are pretty limited at this, as it is just a hard problem, and doing it with floating point is problematic as it usually changes the result.
Here's the source.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Some-doctors-mov...
I value the diversity of thoughts, skills, and experiences on my team. How could any tooling you are envisioning learn and spread new ideas, catch issues that could arise due to a solid understanding of the other systems you are running alongside, or help know when to make the trade off between delivering value vs over engineering? Not to mention what to do about a project that will take just too long to get to market if only one person worked on it.
> Number of users in queue ahead of you: 361164

This is surely a prank.
US is so much better than India. Indian companies openly write in job description that only people with education in premier institutes apply.
And therein lies the difficulty of the process: shifting towards objectivity, in a sentient being that is primarily (if not entirely) a subjective experience. I appreciate CBT, but often feel saddened to see that this doesn't get addressed in most of the resources attempting to educate about the practice.

"Mindfulness and psychotherapy" (by Germer, Siegel, Fulton) has helped me with these issues by giving multiple perspectives on the process to develop. It's a book for therapists, which is one of its strengths, since we essentially are trying to get people to sustain being their own therapists in the long run.
The whole avenue of analysiing waste water when you have centeralised procesisng of the inhabitants as a finger in the air feel upon things is already used in some avenues and like this, many more avenues of potential. Sure it won't be exacting, but does give a feel for things in a way that is very cost effective over alternatives in so many area's.

For example, drug usage - measuring the waste water for levels of cocaine, etc etc etc is already used to some degree and proven in many studies.

Sure it won't say who, what or exactly were and with that, also anonymised and ticks a few privacy box's in that respect. Let alone the aspect that your fecies and urine and property that we all happily sign away to the water/waste company and even pay them. They can do with it what they like if it comes down to it, but in this approach, nobody is identified and it is more a finger in the air measure of things and a good indication of any shifts/change overall for the costs and speed of doing so.

Though personal toilets that will do some serious analysis of your waste for health reasons may well be a big in japan joke phase, but certainly at some level they do have merit and whilst the waste treatments today may be a good overall feel, the market and technology will gradualy filter down into the homes for those that want to be ontop of their health or just want that extra level of safty.

Certainly a good initiative and practical approach, though such an approach does depend upon a good waste/water infrastructure and that will be mostly modern area's, towns cities and the like and for some area's, may not have that high a percentage using such centralising waste management.

Though when we start tracking area's health media wise like we do weather and get the poo forecast, that's when I know reality has caught up with my darkest of humour.
Why Is the Stock Market Booming?
I find the hosts voice unbearable. Great topics but it's such a grind listening to her.
Call setup times with SIP are often much longer than their TDM predecessors, its one of my complaints with SIP.
What about access to contingency short term financing? Debt convertible to assets. Like US Gov did in 2008-9 for GM et al?

Just throwing pasta against the wall here.

There are plenty of people who foresaw this. But there are hoops to jump thru which deterred those people from being proactive. I'd like any post-mortem to propose structural, systemic remedies. So we're not just reliant on savvy leadership for future crisis.
> SIMD […] is a good alternative to multithreading

They are not alternatives to eachother, they are orthogonal things, unless you're using a GPU.
Maybe you just dont like success !
It is now 'Locale -> Float -> String' or do I miss something?
I have a couple of videos introducing intel SIMD intrinsics and how to use them well.

For Rust/C/C++: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Gs_CA_vm3o

For C#: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RcjQPbvvRU
As someone who has to troubleshoot telephony applications, mandatory encryption makes troubleshooting much harder. As someone who runs applications on private, isolated networks, mandatory encryption just adds more overhead for me without much benefit.
Show HN: DealMe.Cards – Play any board game you own over video chat
DealMe.Cards (http://www.dealme.cards) is a free web app that enables people to play a physical board game they own with their friends over video chat. I developed this with the goal of giving people the ability to feel a small shred of normalcy through the COVID-19 pandemic, by allowing them to perform this classic social activity virtually over the internet.

This is a short video explaining the functionality:
https://youtu.be/DoAtHTSuBvs
(note that the styling has changed quite a bit since it was shot)

In short, it works like this:

• The host picks and sets up a board game from their collection

• The host can deal out cards to players by using the camera on their phone

• If the cards are meant to be kept secret, the host is able to flip their phone and the card over and snap a picture of it without ever seeing the face of the card

• Players can view a card, highlight it to be played by the host, or show it to all players

• The host can snap an updated view of the game board between each turn

The app itself does not dictate any of the game flow, it simply enables the host and players to participate in a variety of board games by dealing out cards and giving players a few actions that mimic their real life counterparts.

It’s designed for mobile devices, so my apologies if it doesn’t look quite as polished on desktop.

Some ways it differs from other options
• The app is entirely free and there is no install

• No advance setup needed (or tools/programming experience)

• It’s designed for mobile

• There is no extra cost depending on the board game you play

Any help in getting the word out would be greatly appreciated! I don’t receive any sort of compensation from its use, but I would love to have some sort of positive effect on people during this time.
I'm quite happy to be over cautious until there's better evidence. It's fairly simple to change my behaviour and with a relatively low cost compared to the risk related to uncertainty over ease of transmission.
The group in the middle is the group I'm talking about. At the far edges of stupidity are the sort of criminals who break into an electronics shop to steal GPS tracking devices or try to stick up a police station. The far extremes give you 1000 ways to catch them instead of 100.

The guy who carries his phone with him during the commission of the crime is the guy at the median.

It also doesn't hurt that the average criminal skews dumber than the average law-abiding citizen to begin with. But even for the somewhat above average criminal who gives you ten ways to catch them instead of a hundred, you still don't need eleven because you only need one.

What do you suppose the percentage of criminals is who are so diligent that having default insecure communications is the only way to catch them and they wouldn't have chosen a secure alternative regardless?
Recursion tends to strip context. That is one of the features, and one of the drawbacks. All problems are either a base case, or the general case.

If you are attempting to debug logic, it often helps to have all the context. To do that in recursion, you have to travel up and down the stack, examining local contexts one by one.
> If flu deaths are similar to C19 deaths during mitigation, it is abundantly obvious that we've made a terrible mistake. You seem to want to litigate something. I want to do a t-test.

Note that the lockdowns are not just to avoid spreading the disease, they are to avoid spreading it so quickly that it overflows the hospital system. The theory of "flattening the curve" is that you keep the peak hospitalization number under hospital capacity but spread the infection out over a longer period of time. The area under the curve (total hospitalizations due to infections) remains the same either way. Although it means at no time will someone needing hospitalization be turned away due to lack of capacity -- resulting in fewer overall deaths.

Put another way, let's agree that the number of flu deaths this season of 24k – 62k and 410k – 740k hospitalizations is acceptable from an economic perspective. We can lose and hospitalize that many people and operate as a society. How would it change if those deaths and infections occurred in the span of a month instead of 5 months?
I understand why somebody would take notes when learning the language and having some (mostly dumb) ideas about it. But why make it pubic and even promote... that I do not get.
Long ago I was doing some analysis on a Sigma 5/CP-V machine. One of the few high level languages available was Xerox APL. For those without an APL keyboard they provided ASCII replacements (I don't rember what they were, but looked like $NDX, $ASG). After learning APL with the awkward mnemonics I was never able to read it with the special characters! J does a much better standard-character APL.