skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
Sorry, but the economy doesn't just go poof and disappear, I don't know what theory of economics you ascribe to but that's just nonsense. Everything is a trade-off and we'll find ways over time to ease the effects of the lock downs (more masks, more remote work in fields previously thought unviable to remote work in, gradual exceptions made for certain industries critical to public well-being).

I encourage you to play with the epidemic calculator. This isn't something you "just" take the risk for. And keep in mind that the deaths in the calculator aren't including deaths due to denied hospital beds for more typical things like heart attacks and strokes.

Is 10-30 million deaths in the US this year an acceptable trade-off to keep the all-so-important economy going? Or can we scale back the economy and distribute the wealth so that only food can be afforded while we build up hospital resources, work on a vaccine and save lives?
Why is the entropy of the sorted list smaller?
Good one. Always compare the current death rates with the death rates from the prior year or two. That will explain anomalies in reports by various countries.
We'd have to accurately model all those surfaces outside. Plus you'd need an OLED HDR monitor with super accurate color and a HDR workflow in the engine that isn't just bolted on.
There are multiple variables at play. For example in Italy there is a high percentage of people living with their parents in the age 20-40s bracket, which should lead to more elderly contamination. Also the health services between Germany and Italy should not be even comparable in terms of equipment and capacity.
> Yes, people in this thread are letting the perfect be the enemy of the good

No, it's because medicine has a very low fault tolerance, and requires a large body of technical knowledge to even understand what needs to happen for your patient.

Having a team of incompetent clinicians perform complicated medical procedures "good" as a layperson still results in disproportionate people dying, that would have survived under a competent practitioner.
alias gift=git

Right?
Korea's CFR is 1.6%. Germany is 0.9%. Both are climbing over time as the time lag from detection to death is on the order of weeks.
This 95% is not homogeneously distributed across the world.
It might be that the cellular internet with data caps/metering counts as high speed internet by the FCC definition?

My cellular phone is capped at ~10 GB of data; over the last month my household (with five people in it) has used ~460 GB over its landline connection.
You can't compare those numbers without an in-depth understanding and comparison of who is being tested in each country.
Who is offending anyone?

This is a great example of offense being TAKEN, not given. Fake outrage.
Scuba divers are at ambient pressure and breathe through demand valve regulators. Pressures inside their lungs are almost exactly the same as outside so there's no extra stress.

Increasing pressure with depth does increase work of breathing due to higher gas viscosity. Beyond a certain depth, divers can no longer ventilate enough to take in O2 and remove CO2. This problem can be mitigated to an extent by breathing lower density gasses such as helium. Occasionally hospitals even have patients with severely impaired lung function breathe heliox just to get better gas flow.

In theory it's possible to use a 2nd-stage scuba regulator as an improvised mechanical ventilator by partially blocking the exhaust valve with your hand and pressing the purge button. In practice it's unlikely to work, but if I was trying to rescue someone who had stopped breathing in the water and had no way to get them back to shore or a boat quickly then I might try it as a last-ditch effort.
When there's an endless supply of "marks", it means that you, as a hypothetical sensible and intelligent entrepreneur are faced with competing with them in good times, and then none of you can deal with the bad times.

Free markets can't fix the effects of collective error or stupidity through some magical means. They can reinforce it.
Mostly traditional, "legacy" companies have been hit hard by this

Yes, this. Where I work, WFH had an outright ban until this all hit the fan. Now, anyone who can do so has a mandate to WFH. We use Citrix to access some internal resources, though it's really inefficient: If you want to access a file on network drive, say an excel file, you need to use Citrix to launch an Excel instance, open the file, and deal with it there. You can't easily get it to your local computer, so this adds to the overhead necessary to use the system, which has been strained of late (and it's not like citrix lacks the ability to transfer files between remote & local, they've just disable mapping of local drives during a session) Luckily I have a server-class workstation under my desk at work for heavy data-crunching, and setup my own VPN, which works much better. At least unless/until they turn power off in building not being used.
Do you think that's enough to account for a 146 to 6 difference in deaths per million between Spain and Germany?
Some diseases become endemic and pervasive in childhood and end up not causing issues in the elderly who already built up their immune system in childhood. Other times an exposure in childhood ends up cross reacting or something and makes things more deadly later on (I think that's one theory for the 1918 flu; elderly and middle age were protected from an earlier flu exposure, 20-30 year olds had exposure in childhood to something different with a shared antigen that ended up making the immune system overreactive and made things more deadly).
Nice catch (broken link though :) )
> people don't want to go to hospital for fear of catching it themselves

To be exact, this group of deaths would be caused by the fear of COVID, as you say.
He pretends to feel that, anyway.
"Ah fuck it, I guess I'm not going to sleep anyways..."
Or you could use something like Satnogs.org ;)
The stats for this are all over the place. Speaking for the UK, no distinction at all is made between died of cononavirus and died with coronavirus. We've had a University of Oxford study claiming that 50% of us have already been infected (a figure so outlandish you might wonder if it was rather a University in Oxford) in which case we should expect the died with figures to be a great deal more already, and what's more that herd immunity should be taking the pressure of the system any week now. But I can't help but feel this belief in hidden large denominator is wishful thinking.
The way this usually works is someone buys a really large short position at a good price and then publicizes true information that convinces at least some long traders to sell their positions.

There's also some question to me how much liquidity there is here. Their volume isn't tiny (at least according to Yahoo Finance) but I don't actually know how many shares are trading hands. There might not be a deep enough book to make it worth making the trades.
> go verify this information yourself

That's not how debate works online or has worked for millennia. The onus is on the person making the claim to prove it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burden_of_proof_(philosophy)
Good ideas here of why it could be happening.

Let me add another: fear and hopeless. These kind of emotions may make people more prone to get sick with other illnesses and depress the immune system so it does not fight back as it really could.
> if there's N capacity to provide a necessary necessary good/service, but M > N need, raising the price doesn't seem like a great solution to manage it in a crisis situation

Within a crisis, yes. But this also did-incentivises overprovisioning, i.e. building slack into the system.
What about the second order effects though? Even if it’s a luxury crop, those are calories that will have to be consumed elsewhere, putting strain on the basics. Maybe we can turn up production on those, but what if we can’t? It could prime us for a cascading failure.
It could be, but then the R0 should be greater than 3. Which is kind of scary.
Which means the numbers are not consistent.
Thanks for sharing that link.
Savvyday 29 Oatmeal 94
I don’t know. What Ender does always seems fairly reasonable to me.
seems like this may no longer be in production.
https://kickstarter.com/projects/1286098094/chromatron-wifi-...
https://www.tindie.com/products/readmodifywrite/chromatron-w...
There's nothing morally wrong with it at all. On the contrary, the moral argument behind free software is that the work belongs equally to everyone, not to the original authors. There's nothing in the free software ethos that requires "originality" as a prerequisite to redistribute software for any reason, including donations.

The only thing the Gimp authors have a moral claim to is the name and logo.
>But you can, apparently, force them to use passwords that meet whatever other weird criteria you choose.

No one is forced to use the random password generator, and even if I set a minimum limit they could just chop it up to their liking. All I can do is guide users towards a criteria I think provides the most effective security.

>You've decided by policy to allow "agkxA1"† but not "V+0mCx&3LmgyC" (because the latter has a "duplicate letter C") and that's crazy.

I didn't suggest that all passwords that contain duplicate characters are weak. But if we were to simply use a random string of characters without discrimination, then we would have to allow passwords like "aaaaaaa" and "abcdefg123", which is unacceptable in my opinion. If you agree that there should be some sort of policy that guarantees certain properties, then I'm confused by your position, as that would contradict the main point of your criticism centered around code complexity.

The list of attack vectors was not to suggest that removing duplicate characters was a solution to all of them (I disagree with your assessment but we'll leave that alone for now). I was merely highlighting the fact that brute force attacks are one of the least important factors in securing web-based accounts.

If you are able to point out a concrete example of a vulnerability introduced by disallowing duplicate characters (that includes bugs in the code caused by the added complexity) I'm all ears/eyes. If not, I'm going to call an end to this debate for now. I do appreciate your input though and it's definitely given me something to think about.
If a genetically engineered plant gathered energy equally across the full spectrum then frequency shifting using solar > LED is absolutely pointless even at 100% efficiency. Solar panels and leaves are solving the same problem using the same physical laws.

But that’s hardly required as solar panels to LED’s can’t reach 100% efficiency. Further, the limited lifespan of solar panels and LED’s means you need to cover their construction etc which requires resources.

Ultimately, looking at theoretical limits it’s simply a net loss.

PS: Monoculture is far from required, it’s an outgrowth of current automation rather than having any theoretical advantage.
How much excess capacity would a cloud provider typically have (as in %) to accommodate normal peak loads and still have a comfortable margin?

Or maybe that's not something providers reveal, so let me as the sys-admins of this thread: For on-premise resources, what is your % margin of excess capacity reserved?
This is beyond a spurious claim.
Adding capacity how? PC supply chains are drained - they were impacted by the COVID shutdowns in China a few months ago, and extra demands are in place now:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/store-shelves-stripped-of-lapto...

While I have no inside information, I have to imagine that these same shortages have affected data center hardware too, and that it's much more difficult/expensive to add capacity at the moment compared to, say, last December.
Very awesome demo. I want to do more DIY LED lighting in my office (because it makes for a great video conference backdrop) and I am perfectly capable of buying and programming ESP8266's or ESP32's.... But it's a PITA. Doing it totally DIY is a lot of tinkering with a lot of different things (power, the vagueries of LED strips you get from Aliexpress, etc).

I'd totally be down for buying like 5 of these units to test with, provided they weren't unreasonably more expensive than what I'd expect to pay for an ESP8266 and related gear.
where did you buy it ?
If China stayed on the curve the USA is currently on, they would now need about 1.5M urns. The article mentions stacks of 3,500.

To put 3,500 into perspective, article says there are 56,000 cremations per year in Wuhan alone. That's 4,700 a month. Every normal year 9M people die in China.
Tomas Pueyo published an article: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-peop...

He wrote a model that roughly estimates infection rates in a population based on either deaths or confirmed cases: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/17YyCmjb2Z2QwMiRR...

The model is oriented around companies, but could be applied to any gathering of people. There may be more sophisticated or accurate models out there, but I found his relatively quick to understand and apply.
Some references:

- https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/amp/articles/324090

- https://psychcentral.com/news/2014/05/22/study-probes-how-em...

- https://www.simmsmanncenter.ucla.edu/center_events/healing-a...
The two standard ways in CSS to lower a text underline
How about we at least track those deaths caused by unavailable treatment or postponed, but critical surgeries. If my community is affected I don’t care if Covid is killing us directly or indirectly. They all should be counted at least under a different category. Ignoring them would like claiming puerto rico only had 100 deaths from hurricane
Only if you want to run ads.
People may be quick to complain, but for an infrastructure the size of Microsoft's to support a sudden 775% increase in demand, you've got to give it to them as that is incredible.
And the confusion/overloading of the term is even worse than this - in Oracle the concept of "schema" overlaps with "user". In other words, owner of the object and namespace of the object overlaps.

It makes sense that the owner of an object is like saying the object belongs to a namespace, but coupling user to that takes getting used to in systems that do that.

The ANSI SQL standard (I think part 11) describes the formal definition of schema.
Coded my first little product after 3 months of CS50 Designer LearningToCode
Well, not sure if this counts or if it's a cheat, but you could do the following: Find the single most expensive click, and then a consulting company to implement it, and click their button to sign the contract; Still just a single click and Boom: 20% to 200% increase over Azure cost alone.
Part of the issue is that BA programs are supposed to transition students from high school to the “adult world.”

The is very, very hard to do.

Look at how many BA students wash out at respectable institutions. At least 50%.

It required more than classes. It requires mentoring, encouraging, and shaping students to a degree that’s hard to do online.

Graduate degrees are different. They take in people who have already graduated, and who are more adapted.

Not many Ph. D students throw keggers five times a week.
Awww, that's very unfortunate. Found the repo ( https://github.com/sapphireos/chromatron ) since it's open source and there are no commits in the last 2 years.
>I did hear rumors of Japan doing this intentionally to make it look more under control than it was.

Tangental note, but this caught my eye. It's exactly the kind of comment I would expect to hear in a movie about a global disaster. "I hear Japan is hiding their numbers", "I hear China has a secret cure", "I hear Missouri is untouched by all of this", "I hear..."

I would appreciate it if we avoided this kind of hearsay on HN during these difficult times.
50% does seem outlandish, but from what I can see, the numbers infected are a lot lot higher than officially reported. I would go as far as to say that the majority of cases aren't being reported, because almost nobody without severe symptoms has access to testing.
While true: only few individual companies would have enough computing power to handle their suddenly increasing load ready ... or capability to setup the services now in demand
I have an entire Costco package of toilet paper that will last me months while some poor bastard near me is probably wiping his ass with his hand (or worse, flushing paper towel and causing thousands of dollars of damage) because there is no effective way for me to resell my excess in a way that is legal and won’t result in crazy social media backlash against me.

I similarly have months of supply of hand sanitizer (one big bottle, not hoarding).

The drawbacks of these laws don’t feel hypothetical to me right now.
> 100T of synapses (or sizeable share of it) at that frequency puts us into hundreds tera-ops/second of calculation power

Considering the top supercomputers can do petaflops, in terms of pure computation, humans are now permanently surpassed. And in a generation or so, our smartphones will be able to do petaflops.

It makes you wonder, if computers can now process faster, store more data, have greater bandwith, etc, why is it still "behind" the human brain? Perhaps we are missing some aspect of the human brain that makes it special?
pretty sure it's been there for years.
I'd just say the numbers are different.
I've heard good things about those (but no firsthand experience myself!): https://www.tindie.com/products/electromage/electromage-pixe...
Ask HN: Do you code review in English, or use native language?
What language do you use when doing code reviews and submitting internal issues when your entire team's native language is not English?

Me and the team I am currently leading all share the same first language, but we still do code reviews in English. The only reasons for this are that this how we've been doing it since the beginning of time, and we're considering a time when someone else would be taking over the project, or we'd be joined by contributors that don't speak the same language as us. I feel like this is sometimes hurting collaboration, and was wondering if there's merit in switching to our native language.

What language do non-English HN users collaborate internally with their compatriots in GitHub/GitLab issues and PRs? I'm only asking because Google is being a pita by thinking I mean programming language.
Well all credible universities are going to have to enable online bachelors programs if we are going to properly deal with infectious diseases moving forward. If most companies become remote first, it’s not much of a stretch to make college remote first.
Spreading out cases over time means what might have been a death in a crowded, overworked hospital is a recovery in a moderately challenged hospital where the concerns are fresh face masks rather than available hands.
Words Can Be Typed with Home Row Keys
The same phenomenon has been anecdotally reported there as well, with a lot of untested "pneumonia" deaths: https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-...
In Italy the hospitals were overwhelmed so you should expect the mortality to increase very fast when you can't even give basic treatment to patients in need. The same thing happened in Wuhan and that led to massive death toll. But as I said, many variables at play and we will surely have a better understand of what mattered the most to prevent mortality.
Some people will invest portions of that $15k to produce things that other people in their community need. Isn’t this how capitalism is supposed to work?

Instead, we will artificially prop up large corporations.
Sure, SDR is the easy answer if you’re within LOS. But let’s assume I wanted to listen to another geosynchronous satellite that I wasn’t in LOS of.
No, it's that I'm aware that "ventilator bootcamps" would be a resounding failure that would kill more people than it saves.

Going from zero to medical professional - not a doctor, just someone who can perform invasive medical procedures without killing a large number of people - isn't 30 days of work. Ignoring that reality will recklessly endanger people's lives.

If we're talking veterinarians, dentists, nurses, residents, MDs in unrelated specialties - then sure! They actually have the requisite knowlege and manual dexterity to cross-train. But going from, say SWE to ventilator operator, is not a 30 day crash course.

> If you think an amateur operator is worse than no operator, I'd like to see your evidence. If all you have is your intuition then my intuition is that you're wrong.

Because then you end up wasting a life and keeping a ventilator occupied, when there are much more efficient ways to kill patients that don't involve misusing a ventilator.

Former scientist, including (lab side) FDA trials. Medicine is complicated. Even sterile technique, to make sure you don't inadvertently give your patient a life-threatening infection in the process of "helping" them, can take years to get right. This is true of the most routine aspects of any kind of medical work.

But, do tell: since my "intuition" is so obviously wrong, I want to hear all about your empirical research. Or let's just start with your credentials, medical or otherwise.
Three examples: Authentication, payment processing, invoices:

https://thebootstrappedfounder.com/not-in-house-on-reinventi...

I would add things like sending newsletters (Mailchimp), monitoring (Sentry), various types of analytics (Segment, Hotjar) to the list.
"Consciousness was upon him before he could get out of the way."
Can anyone actually tell me what was the cause of death if an 85 yo already had 3 diseases prior to this virus?

If a person has a terminal disease and has N months to live, but dies sooner from a car accident, the net deaths did not increase. This person was on the death queue.

edit: bring the silent downvotes. Also, a number of my family have tested positive for this virus.
I read that Germany is not testing the dead, so if someone wasn’t tested while alive then their death is attributed elsewhere. Italy is testing the dead to get a more accurate picture. I find it baffling that there isn’t an international standard for testing in a situation like this so that we can get a handle on what is actually going on. If we don’t have data, how can we possibly draw inferences and learn anything?
The "direct/indirect" distinction is very important because once we have more perspective on this disaster, we should try to find out whether the alarm and the various extreme measures helped or not, and to what extent. I'm not saying that we should ignore the downstream effects of the pandemic, I'm saying the opposite - we should look at them with extreme scrutiny.
Overconfidence is one class of error. Imagining that a ventilator is a magic machine you can only operate with the sorcerous reagent of a medical degree is another.

Do you know how to operate a ventilator? Why do you think that volunteers couldn't learn to do it?
Numbers are spiking up in every country, it is really scary to go out nowadays. I think that the virus won't be gone soon as some people tend to ignore the lockdown. America is now the epicenter of pandemic.
Here in the UK, I personally know a lot of people who suspect that they have it, but aren't in official numbers because their symptoms are mild and access to tests is poor. 15% doesn't seem beyond the realm of possibility.

Beyond a certain point I think it's actually less scary it's more people have it, no? Because it means that the serious cases are a smaller proportion.
I think they were referring to a scenario where Amazon is draining the funds that have already been loaned. Thus Amazon already has their money, and the bank is the one coming after you during bankruptcy.