skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
This risk measures risk to expected lifespan with and without COVID-19. It's a good way to put things into context.

If you compare deaths directly, you get really horrific numbers.

For example: Covid will kill significantly more people in the US than WWII and the deaths will occur within roughly a year or year and a half. (WWII lasted 4 years for the US but the popuation was also smaller). If that sounds horrible and unacceptable, consider that tobacco related deaths (including second hand smoke) in the US kill more than WWII every year. https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/heal...

Because the deaths will come in short time span and hospitals will be out of capacity the situation will be warlike in countries that fail mitigation. Hospitals running out of capacity kills more of people than the disease. Isolation failures due to hospitals not having testing equipment and protective gear will add unnecessary deaths too. The risk from the disease itself is comparable to lifestyle risks and many other risks.
Can satellites act as smartphones and run apps?
Coronavirus: Researchers develop tool to help determine if epidemic is manmade
In the early phases, random testing to estimate what proportion of the population are infected is prohibitively expensive - you'd need to test hundreds of thousands to find just a few infected.

In the later phases, you want to know who has been infected, yet the commonly available test in fact measures who is currently infected (ie. It can't detect those who are still liable to get infected, which is what you need for good modelling).

Antibody tests which are being prototyped by many groups should fill this need.
Recovery rates are not uniform, and more ill patients die faster than well patients recover.

#deaths/(#deaths + #recoveries) will overestimate CFR, and #deaths/#cases will underestimate CFR. The final result will be somewhere in the middle, around 1-1.5%, unless the hospital system gets overloaded in the UK.
I love the simplicity in this statement: "So average risk of death doubles in 8 years."
From what thine is this? It says "There IS a bug ... NOW patched" Should make no sense anyway but I see no time attached to this.
Make your company attractive for developers and tech profiles
There's also Talkyard, https://www.talkyard.io — sort of a cross between Slack and StackOverflow and Discourse. It's open source, I'm developing it.
I wonder how this compares to Apache Flink (or googles Data Flow) with regards to scalability and fault tolerance for stateful computations.
Checkpointing is mentioned below, but is this really equivalent with what Flink can do?
>a loudmouth seeks to distract from their lack of knowledge by talking excessively

Sounds just like a previous team leader of mine.
This forum is generally open to considering contrarian ideas, however, your intensely lazy phrasing and lack of any real argument does not contribute to the discussion here.

"Some women's rights advocates have a blind spot, causing (named negative effect of said advocates' policies that can be sourced or is commonly agreed), and this could be an opportunity to address those in light of the disease's disproportionate effect on men". - Not really a statement I agree with, but one I would at least listen to.

And, as has been noted, plenty of advocates have pointed out the negative impacts of ["patriarchy", "traditional gender stereotypes", "etc"] on men, like smaller social circles and support groups in elderly men and the expectation to take on dangerous jobs (logging, for instance). Are you aware of these efforts?
How to work from home with your children
I'm using davmail + thunderbird to access my O365 emails + calendar. Works flawlessly for me but does mean you have to have a separate application running to provide the gateway. I run mine on the same machine as my email client but you could easily host it on a server and connect via that.
Calculating the mortality rates as deaths/(deaths+recovered) will give you a biased result for an ongoing epidemic.
Just to provide some info, asymptomatic might include people who are infected but the infection is just on the incubation period. Mild coughing might start after two weeks or so after the plausible date of infection, and a week after that might be when fever and difficulty breathing kicks in.
How can we speed up vaccine development for Covid-19?
Multipath TCP or QUIC will provide us all with a seamless experience, if they ever gain adoption.
Both, but also with including the time spent under house arrest in life expectancy with full weight, disregarding the side-effects and tail risks of such isolation imposed on everyone, both social and economic. Most of all, with the irrationality and cowardice of risking everything for a few months (weeks?) of average life expectancy.
The temporal dimension. Comparing the deaths now to the infected now doesn't make a lot of sense. (I would question whether the UK has good coverage of testing.)
I was using it before and I find it heavier than kitty.
Now I am running kitty mainly because of wayland support and I did switch to wayland.
Firebird JDBC driver Jaybird 4.0.0 released
How much will life expectancy be reduced if the disease just runs it's course ? (or if we don't enforce a lockdown) ?
Why shouldn't an activist focus on one particular issue?

People are sometimes more interested in one cause than another. A bowel cancer charity is not working to stop lung cancer. And a charity working to protect the rights of separated father's should not have to campaign against domestic violence.
Incidentally, the leading direct cause of death for children and young adults, drivers, is curtailed by shelter in place restrictions. Deaths from air pollution will most likely fall as well.
I'm glad that you are comfortable making that choice for other people. After all, it's most likely not you that will have to bear the consequences.
It's a deaths/infections ratio. What's biased about that?
Number of deaths is a lagging indicator, but number of recoveries lags even more.
There was MD-Data. 128 MB per disk IIRC.
Most landlords raised rents just because they could.

They were profitable where they were, but since the next guy raised his rents, then they jacked up their own rents.

This is what makes people angry at landlords. And often times, your rent increased, but your pay didn’t, so you get squeezed both ways.
Imagine equating "quarantine" with "totalitarian control".

When your parents put you in timeout did you equate it with being imprisoned?
> You are not taking into account the asymptomatic rate

I'm using the Imperial College of London hospitalization numbers, from the table quoted in the article. These give a hospitalization rate that's about half that of earlier tables. So I'm guessing they probably include around 50% mostly asymptomatic cases, which is in line with heavily-tested populations like the Diamond Princess and South Korea.
I don't believe this to be the case, I don't think autistic people as a rule lack theory of mind. I think autistic people lack the model to link desires to actions and so have a maladapted or vague theory of mind instead.

If I'm with people who's emotional responses I've learned, I can understand somewhat their desires and intentions are. I've found listening to their breathing gives me a big head start on understanding their current wellbeing and I go from there.

With strangers and in scenarios where the communication protocol changes then it becomes enough of a task to decode the emotional exchanges happening that I'm sure I'd fail a test for theory of mind. I can't read what strangers want, I know that they do have intentions and desires but I can't map them until I understand that person's emotional language.

There's a definite distinction between lacking a theory of mind entirely and not having the tools available to build a reliable one. I think a lot of autistic people have a rudimentary theory of mind but understand desires and intentions perfectly when told explicitly ahead of time.
I've never used IINA, but I'm wondering why you don't just use mpv on Linux? I've been using mpv for years and I've never had any issues with it.
The number that worried the OP was deaths/(deaths + recovered), that's different from deaths/(deaths + recovered + ongoing cases).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nudge_theory

"Nudge is a concept in behavioral science, political theory and behavioral economics which proposes positive reinforcement and indirect suggestions as ways to influence the behavior and decision making of groups or individuals. Nudging contrasts with other ways to achieve compliance, such as education, legislation or enforcement. "

"A nudge makes it more likely that an individual will make a particular choice, or behave in a particular way, by altering the environment so that automatic cognitive processes are triggered to favour the desired outcome."
It's a mass noun just because the adjective turned into a noun (sorry, don't know the technical terms in English) when the real noun was elided.

In "the poor people", "poor" is an adjective. If you elide "people" and turn the phrase into "the poor", it has to be a noun (otherwise we'd have a noun phrase without a noun).

Though IMHO it's better analyzed as an adjective with an elided noun, but I'm afraid I lost that war ages ago :shrug:

But I personally prefer to analyze what makes sense, not what's written (considering language is language). I'd rather have a regular case with an ellipsis than "oh, it's just a fixed phrase" and a zillion other corner cases.
When the maintainer of a popular JavaScript library goes to prison
In my experience, it's the people playing ASCII games that are more likely to be stuck in their comfort zone.
It's an ethical, not epidemiological question.
Any recommendations for some party games ? We tried https://jackbox.tv/ with some colleagues yesterday evening, that was pretty fun.
I really like Forth and if I ever get into IoT that's what I would use over C any day. Forth works best from a clean slate though I think (from my admittedly limited experience), working in with a host OS takes a bit of fun away I found.
My very personal opinion is that the allure is mostly to people with PR/Marketing/Comm tendencies. It's basically crack for individuals or roles who thrive on attention & engagement with others (or the illusion of it, if we're going to be cynical).
I'm sure your social life will recover just fine. After all, you seem to value it more than human lives.
He also posted earlier that the eventual revenue he receives from Amazon is about 50 cents from a $50 book. So it is not the best channel to buy his books.
That's what I do, but it took a while to get there.

Since I would say 80% of people have some level of cloud storage now (University, employer, personal), there should be a simple setting to pick one, and the location. Make it easy for people and win users!
Out of curiosity, did anyone have a look at this? Based on the website, the author seems to have a "conspiracy theory by default" response to every recent potentially pandemic levels reaching infectious disease. What's the conspiracy here? Is it that none of the diseases are human-to-human transmissible?
i don't think i missed the point here.

i wrote:
"i do understand code using "unsafe" can be safe if the developer does not make mistakes. the problem is, developers do make mistakes."

you wrote:
"Usage of unsafe is effectively flagging areas for peer review. You can't build everything in safe Rust - certain things _require_ the use of unsafe. Having it gated, reviewed, and so on is effectively a check on a class of bugs that can be hard to pin down."

it's the same thing. the difference is that you look at it from the glass-half-full point of view (it's good that must-be-verified-by-a-person blocks are limited here), and i do from the other end (it's bad that these blocks are necessary).
FWIW, pulling my sons from public school so they weren't forced to deal with a ton of really unpleasant social interaction daily helped them seem a lot more "normal." We've arranged our lives to be fairly quiet and so forth to accommodate sensory issues and also addressed underlying health issues to reduce sensory issues.

I often forget how difficult they can be and how impaired they are. Then we end up for some odd reason at a crowded restaurant and my oldest son is climbing the walls and I remember that this used to be a routine thing and the more he is subjected to it, the more difficult he is to deal with -- and understandably so because he's extremely stressed.

Anyone who knows anything about ASD usually asks me sooner or later if he is autistic. The fact that he's not normal isn't anything subtle at all. He still does not "blend" with normal society.

But he's a lot more functional than I ever expected him to be and he nursed me back to health after doctors basically wrote me off for dead, so I certainly don't see him as incompetent. He will probably never hold a "normal" job and there are lots of people who don't have "normal" jobs.

I don't see why we can't have more emphasis in this world on helping people find their niche instead of on trying to force fit square pegs to round holes and pretending there are no square holes out there. Square holes exist. We just have this very broken idea that because someone is ill suited to X they are simply bad and terrible and incompetent people who cannot be fixed.

This has not been my experience and I also think the world has changed a whole lot. My parents also like things quiet and like having control over their environment. No one has ever suggested there was something wrong with them because of it.

My dad grew up on a farm. My mother worked in the fields as a teen and got paid in kind in post-WW2 Germany where the economy was so very bad (meaning if she helped harvest cherries, she came home with a bushel of cherries to help feed the family). Historically, farms were much quieter than modern life and most people lived and/or worked on them.

The world changed in a way such that it's much noisier and busier and people have much less latitude for arranging their lives as they see fit, but instead of recognizing that, we just give all the children who don't like that a label and claim they are broken.

I'm very skeptical of that explanation -- that we just suddenly and mysteriously have tons and tons of bad apple children for no apparent reason. (Because if you suggest they are medically impaired from a toxic world full of chemicals that didn't exist a hundred years ago, now you are an illogical conspiracy theory nutter. So we don't have an official explanation for why these kids deserve to be called disabled.)
Show HN: Save Your Bookstore
Yes, that's where I'd like to start (and I sort of did, but the approach I took was nowhere near good enough). Like you say, it does take time to build the harness. Kind of a hard sell with our client..

I'd need to mock hardware I don't have, possibly mock some kernel interfaces, set up a physical test endpoint that can observe things on the wire (as in raw ethernet packets, but also application level protocols..). And well, really capturing timing issues and such is kinda important because things like flow control, multipath routing & failover are critical features of the software.

Of course some of the things you want to test are inherently timing related issues. Like, a certain signal must be asserted if a particular message isn't received within a specified (possibly configurable or not) time window after some event.

The core of the software is a heavily asynchronous & multithreaded mess..

Getting all the scaffolding in place and then automating everything is going to require lots and lots of time. And reverse engineering.

I tried playing with bash scripts and docker based virtual deployments but it completely misses the hardware side of things and really doesn't get me far.
I love the ability to “brew install” software onto my Mac or compile useful scripts and tools for my need, and then SSH into other remote Linux servers for production work.

If they give me an amazingly efficient, and performant ARM mac, but limit my ability to install stuff outside of their Appstore, No Thanks!
The statement is a nieve one to say the least. While the discussion revolves around math and y axis etc, here is the simple math: due to covid I have 12-18 months left before I die.
Tough Call: Handling “Difficult” Remote Conversations Like a Pro [video]
How to build a strong immune system naturally – FitnessHealths
Ah, OK, my apologies. Generally people with your opinion are also skeptical of the epidemiological models that are driving policy decisions.

Putting that aside, let's assume that the epidemiology of this disease is settled. What would you do differently policy-wise to address this, given that you seem disinclined to favor suppression methods?
I had one as well and it was very cool... but could never use it regularly over my Discman simply because ATRAC sounded so horrible! MP3 was the first audio compression which was even remotely acceptable. Still, it was very futuristic and I loved it for what it was. Now DAT on the other hand.. that was the bomb.
Can you elaborate in what way it goes down the wrong path?
And how does it compare to deaths related to automobile accidents ?
Non Paywalled: http://archive.is/8V7yo
>When your parents put you in timeout did you equate it with being imprisoned?

That attitude that the government is like a parent and the citizens its child to be disciplined, as opposed to a humble servant to the citizens, is exactly the kind of totalitarianism the poster was referring to.
Activism is uncorrelated with expertise.
Prefix the URL with outline.com/

Mods please let me know if this not allowed
I'm not sure I agree with "good coverage of testing". As of today (27th Mar) there have been roughly 100,000 people tested out of 66,440,000. That's a mere 0.015% of the population tested. I think that's around 1 out of every 6,600 people (unless my maths are wrong).

They aren't even testing all people with symptoms yet here. Only if they are severe or the patient is high risk.
I stopped eating meat about 8 years ago and think about this almost every day. It's far worse than just pandemic evolution by keeping too many animals too close to wild animals, to each other and to humans.

- Climate change

- Antibiotic resistance

- Peak phosphorus

- Nutrition availability

- Water usage

- Pollution of air, water and soil (lakes of pig shit sprayed into the air)

somewhere down the list is animal cruelty, but most people are selfish, unconvinced and don't care if it happens elsewhere as long as they don't have to watch it.

If humans are to survive, meat (and resource-intensive substitutes) and fossil fuels have to go bye-bye because they're too risky in the long-term.
Microsoft is currently updating a lot of code to add this feature, in the end the community will pressure the libraries author so they do the same.
I guess that in a few year all popular libs will use the nullable feature.
I tried some major cities around the world and it’s hit or miss. E.g. Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul and Sidney are all missing.

Edit: Okay, the locations are fetched from Google Map’s auto complete service, with only the top five results, so when I enter say Beijing I get unhelpful results like some Beijing Pie House in Alhambra, CA. Probably want to limit to cities if possible, no one is entering local street/establishment names here.
Oh they are not insurmountable, but I am not sure these are either basic problems, or as you might suggest easy to solve.

For example mouse hit testing a window for transparent areas. That's not very common and I don't see very many (none) projects that handle it.

Tray icons are a HUGE mess. People have fixed the issue for popular applications by taking the time to make it work on a variety of distros. This means adding in code to support libappindicator in you want the Ubuntu users to use your program from the tray. Sure the main apps distributed with Ubuntu support them, because Canonical is paying his devs to remake everything. Sure Steam works with it because, well it's Steam. But now, me the small guy, has to figure out how to add a code path to check for Ubuntu and use their API if I want a tray icon, and then I have to revisit it when they moved from version1 to version3. What next?

https://www.markshuttleworth.com/archives/333

Point is, nothing is insurmountable, but it sure is a pain for individual developers like me.
Seems like you're right but I never-ever saw this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzwtCBj5jEs

Although it seems like it's not really minidisks.
sorry, what does "to optimize the balance of safety and speed with as few compromises as possible" mean? it's possible to cover many-many situations with that description.
Do you drive a car? If so, by your logic you value your own convenience more than human lives, because driving kills over a million people and maims tens of millions more people every year.
Abe: Tokyo lockdown would damage Japan economy
US Surpasses China in Coronavirus Cases
That's just not true. It's pretty much impossible to be 80 years old and not be more susceptible to infection generally. Statistically the people dying have an average of 2.7 comorbiditities.
Some comments on the concluding remarks:

> So, roughly speaking, we might say that getting COVID-19 is like packing a year’s worth of risk into a week or two.

Sure, but it also means these deaths are piled up on top of everything else. It's not like people will stop dying of other causes.

> many people who die of COVID would have died anyway within a short period

This strikes me as completely unfounded. Diabetes or an age > 70 aren't imminent death sentences in a developed country.

> if COVID deaths can be kept in the order of say 20,000 by stringent suppression measures, as is now being suggested, there may end up being a minimal impact on overall mortality

In a sense this is a tautology. Of course, if we keep deaths to a low number there won't be an impact on mortality rates.
Fluid (2009)
well at leats at home I have a pihole with a facebook blocklist. There should be a portable pihole as well.
The Expert Blind Spot in Software Development
Because if you start talking about it too early then people will change their behaviour too early.
IMO, where tests are adding most productivity is when they enable rapid refactoring. When you test with that goal in mind it doesn't really matter much where in the cycle tests are added.
The cited MS KB has been archived starting November 9, 2004:

https://web.archive.org/web/20041109020858/http://support.mi...

It is dated August 2004 (it is revision 3.2) but the patch (for Windows 98) has a date:

Release Date: Jun-04-1999
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52007104 probably has as much information.