skysight-inc/HackerNews huggingface dataset:
This separation of society is the worse problem here.
Thank you for stating what my mind couldn't quite put into words. I see lots of people with professional-class, WFH jobs being very sanctimonious about any suggestion that we should in any way take into account the financial impact when making the risk-reward decisions. Which, taken to its logical conclusion, would suggest that a worse-than-average flu season should also shut everything down, since tens of thousands of lives could be at stake. If this were somehow a pandemic which impacted the professional class more than the working class, I suspect we would see a very different moral calculus at work.
I doubt they’re talking about their compute services. The increases are more likely in Microsoft teams and Office 365. And as far as I know you can’t choose a region for those services.
Mostest Important caveat from the link:

This is not an official St. Louis Fed calculation. The post is titled “back-of-the-envelop estimate of unemployment”, the data sources are from two blog posts, and it was written by a researcher on their blog. This is not an official document, and appears that it likely wasn’t vetted.
I don't think it's an ignorant opinion. How do you imagine it being solved?
Containerizing Angular application for production using Docker
I had no idea there were any closed-source features - I thought Gitlab was a passionately completely open-source company. They even open-source their arguments between their legal counsel and their developers!
Philip Anderson 1923-2020
The problem is we live in an "RTFM" culture, where people find it necessary to present all the things they've considered and tried prior to asking the question, so that they can be taken seriously and not just get an "RTFM" as the first response to their question. Yes, it would be easier if they could just ask their question without their motives being questioned, but that's not how our system works.
The problem is that most middle managers don't really care about the product. Their entire job is just message passing between higher level managers and lower level employees. Their real purpose in the organization is to propagate a sense of hierarchy which makes directors feel important and the workers feel unimportant.

Their purpose is to manipulate the self-esteem of the people within the organisation so that workers feel so bad about themselves that they never feel entitled to ask for a raise and directors feel so good about themselves that they feel entitled to keep paying themselves large bonuses. Middle managers don't serve customers, they only exist to serve the emotional needs of their bosses.
There are tons of regulations for the whole country and each state. Then you have to deal with all insurers. I bet it took hundreds of man years just to get a handle on all the requirements. This is not some photo sharing site where you can make the rules. The rules are already set and you have to figure them out. Basically the tech is the easy part but understanding the requirements is very hard. This applies to a lot of big systems. It’s hard to create a coherent system around convoluted rules.
I think this is a lot less true now than it used to be, at least for L<8
Then use your personal computer.
But will your friends get haircuts, manicures, massages, etc every day when the quarantine lifts? Pent up demand only helps certain industries, unfortunately. Imagine being a hair dresser with a stack of bills from the shutdown and no big boost to income after the quarantine lifts to help pay things off.

Rough times ahead for many, sadly.
When was the economy “roaring”? I saw asset prices roaring, but not wages or GDP.
If they had a consistent gray/white/tan everywhere, and modern icons, it would look en vogue today.

https://www.deviantart.com/rainingskies/art/Windows-Whistler...

Imagine that with these, something they absolutely could have accomplished at the time. https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/20/21146028/microsoft-window...
> I know a lot of my friends who still have jobs are talking about going out every night when the quarantine lifts so they don’t have to cook.

Most of the demand shortfall we're going to experience in the coming months will come from people being out of work, not from their being quarantined. That doesn't create pent up consumption that can unleashed at a later point in time.
Can we get a title change? The actual title of the article is "Back-of-the-Envelope Estimates of Next Quarter’s Unemployment Rate", which is emphatically not the St. Louis Fed estimating anything.
And the US expelled chinese journalists as well

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/02/washington-sla...

Of course we play it off as being "fair" and setting quotas.
If it's raining you bring an umbrella, if it's hot you wear shorts, if there's a pandemic you wear a mask - everywhere all the time. They shouldn't of let people on airplanes, buses, buildings, etc.. without a mask. Don't have one? Here's some scissors cut up a tshirt, or use a scarf. It doesn't need to be N95 perfect. Just a barrier to keep you from touching your face, and to catch a good amount of spit flying out of your mouth every time you open it. Grocery stores, gas stations, offices that are still open, private social gathering, etc.. still no one is wearing a mask (in America at least) Asia was way ahead of us with their health culture on this one, we need to step it up. Unfortunately it's a message that really needs to come from the highest levels. The politicians, news casters, etc.. on TV need to be giving announcements with masks to get the point across.
You Probably Should Be Wearing a Face Mask If You Can
>If a lot of people do that, we’ll suddenly need a lot of waiters back. And then they’ll have money.

By that time every restaurant will have had all its fresh food expire and will need to predict when the demand for it will return. If they do not do this accurately, they risk wasted capital that they'll need for when the demand does come back.

They'll have had to been paying rent or mortgage on the property they currently occupy, with only the revenue they're able to make on take outs.

Depending on the structure, I predict most restaurants won't survive this. Any restaurant with a dining room is toast. The world will look different after the crisis.

The world will look different after the first of the very next month.
From the caveat list:

many businesses may send workers home with pay instead of laying them off outright.

Others may get some other benefit, like the friend of a friend who gets health insurance but no pay through the beginning of June. Not sure how it impacts unemployment benefits. I think the hope is that this thing will cycle through, the economy will recover (like after 9/11) and people can be brought back to the same job.
In fairness the author also gave a massive error bar "between 10.5% and 40.6%." So whether or not the stimulus is sufficient to avert the worst depends on where we sit between "mild recession" and "social collapse."
What? They've been talking about opening that up forever. I can't believe they didn't.
You surely did, but the literal reality of the mass-energy equivalence maybe wasn't apparent: E = mc^2

A system with more potential energy will have more mass.

See: https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/274329/does-pote...
This is really insightful. I've noticed something like this as well, but with some slight variations on theme. From time to time I've encountered people who come off as incessantly positive, almost cheerleader-like personalities. They often have very large numbers of admirers from previous workplaces.

The downside comes from a near perfect refusal to face challenges, problems, and other negative issues. The refusal seems to occur using a variety of strategies, from the observations the article here observes to simply refusing to acknowledge that a problem has been raised.

This is deadly in engineering disciplines where the day-to-day is centered almost entirely around problem solving, trade-offs and negotiations.
You can create models with various assumptions to arrive at worst and best case estimates.

They're also very much away of these various factors, but know better than to assume there will be major pent up demand with an economic shock of this nature.

These jobs are not temporarily suspended unless the government intervenes on the scale that European governments are. They will be lost, leaving scars on the economy. No one will be willing to endure this again, when needed again in the future, if they have to sacrifice everything all over again.
Well, it is on the St. Louis Fed's web site...
> I've often wondered why import tariffs and/or local manufacturing subsidies aren't used to address this.

Have you been paying attention the last couple of years? Every time Trump tried to impose tariffs in order to prop up American manufacturers he faced no end of hostility, endless explanations about why tariffs don’t work, etc.

Hopefully this whole fiasco has opened people’s eyes to the fact that we should try to bring home some amount of domestic manufacturing instead of just saying “those jobs are never coming back” like a certain former president once said.
Hi, I would like to hear more :)
Right by my point is that those jobs didn't go away, they're just temporarily suspended. We have no idea how many of those jobs will come right back when shelter-in-place is lifted. It's not a "normal" downturn.
Why does time seem to move so slowly when we're in danger?
Because faith without works is dead.

You are conflating Christianity with a particular flavor of protestant evangelicalism.
Deno 1.0 will be released on May 13
What is happening to the US economy is completely unprecedented. The comparison I most hear is to WWII - but instead of pivoting to support sending people to war and supporting their needs, our economy is pivoting to sending them home.

But as near as I can tell, we only ever sent about 10% of the population to WWII. This is 3x the hit of WWII! (I get that we don't have to make guns and tanks for people, just feed and house them).
I totally agree that startups aren't the solution to every single problem we have on the planet but I'm not sure you've tackled the original proposition, rather you expressed a general concern/dissatisfaction and that's understandable.

Software-powered != Software-only. Nonprofit != Startups. Propositions != Complete, bulletproof solutions
I've been patiently waiting for them to do the same thing in the high-end/upper-midrange GPU market for a few years now. Unfortunately Nvidia basically has free reign right now to charge whatever prices they want for the RTX 2070 on up.
I've never looked at any videos. I personally would not feel comfortable trying the exercises without proper supervision since there is a lot of neck movements (I have a herniated disc).

And while you could do mat exercises at home, a studio will have the spring-based machines, like towers and reformers.
Does there? I don't mean to be flippant, but it seems to me there's an enormous number of companies that use UI as their competitive advantage. What exactly do we gain by standardising user interfaces?
Real damage is happening. It's nothing short of hugely multiple swearwords level wrong if you think this is a mere temporary pause where everyone can pick back up where we left off.
My company is healthcare adjacent so we've actually seen an uptick in business - but my wife had to lay herself off as the small manufacturing plant she works at has no incoming business.

I think it's important for us to band together and make sure we can all make it through this stress together and I don't mind if, as someone on just barely in the "haver" side of thing, I need to surrender some of my stuff to make sure those worse off do well.

That all said, I'm up in Canada where I don't gush lovingly over the government, but I find it to be reasonable and well intentioned... And I think the US has a real problem coming up where nearly nobody wants to help the common good because both sides have been constantly fed that the government is terrible and only acts in the interest of big businesses (which, generally, it does).
> Games are traditionally single threaded and hard to parallelize.

Citation needed. Games are about the least "Traditional" software engineering culture on the planet. We've had multicore CPUs for the last two gens of consoles (and I've seen multi-core programming on the Saturn and N64). On PC we've had mainstream multicore since 2009-ish. That's about when I left games. But given the need to win big on consoles, I can't imagine anyone has a main loop anymore that does everything on one thread.
Trump's approval rating are actually climbing up. If Trump / GOP retains power, expect more trampling of any labor rights
> I know a lot of my friends who still have jobs are talking about going out every night when the quarantine lifts so they don’t have to cook. If a lot of people do that, we’ll suddenly need a lot of waiters back.

What percentage of the U.S. population can actually afford to eat out every night?

Median U.S. household income is about $62K.[1] If you spend only $15 a night eating out, that amounts to $105/week or $5460/year, which is a good chunk of the median household's income, and an even bigger chunk of their income after paying for rent, utilities, taxes and other necessities.

[1] In 2018. Source: https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2019/09/us-median-hou...
I agree with the grandparent that we aren't worried enough about the large percentage of people that can't work at home but your statement that "would suggest that a worse-than-average flu season" is not backed by any science. There are 12-60k deaths a year from the flu according to the CDC (last year is in the 24-60k range). There are 37k deaths from COVID right now and the number is still increasing at non-linear rates. This is /on-top/ of the flu deaths. So this isn't just "a slightly worse flu season".
Show HN: 2020 Presidential Forecast – 65.2% Biden win probability
10.5% unemployment isn't a mild recession. It's a touch worse than 2008.
Yeah. I quite like the company I work for, and they do a lot of things right on this front, and cut no corners on developer machines, extra monitors, etc, but...

...they went for really crap chairs. I don't really understand the logic. They're uncomfortable, and they're falling apart after a couple of years. The amount of time the engineering team has spent talking about them, complaining about them, and stealing still-working ones from other desks when theirs breaks has probably cost them 5 times what actual good chairs would have in lost productivity.
I have a friend who is an excellent software engineer, and he has a very similar philosophy to his coding. Get something down and then fix it and improve it.

He also says something along the lines of "if you look back on something you wrote a year later, and you don't feel compelled to change it, you haven't learned/thought/grown enough".
> if there's a pandemic you wear a mask - everywhere all the time

I thought the expert advice from the WHO is to not wear a mask?

> There is no specific evidence to suggest that the wearing of masks by the mass population has any potential benefit. In fact, there's some evidence to suggest the opposite in the misuse of wearing a mask properly or fitting it properly.

Do you know better than the WHO?
Any ideas how to get a client-server style VPN setup with WireGuard working with IPv6 so that it keeps working even if the public IP address of your VPN server changes? The configurations I've seen assign a statically configured IP address to a client. This works fine with NATted IPv4, but with IPv6, addresses are "public", so the client must basically know the prefix of the server to be able to configure a sane address, and if that changes, the configuration must be changed by hand.
It wasn't celebratory. They had to haul home all the ammunition they didn't fire.
The only thing that was roaring about the economy was the printing press called QE.

It's been turned back on, which is why the market is bullish at the moment.
This calls to mind the ever-relevant “Science: The Endless Frontier” [1] by Vannevar Bush, who more or less oversaw the entire American federal research enterprise during and post-WWII. He famously said that the best thing you can do for scientific progress is give scientists money and then get out of the way (i.e. not even putting out requests for grant submissions in specific domains, like the NIH often does now).

[1] https://www.nsf.gov/od/lpa/nsf50/vbush1945.htm
Your thesis seems to be that the conditions that would lead these workers to strike would be sufficient to also deter all of the millions of newly unemployed people. A proposition which is unfounded and completely defies logic. Your question about how these companies should ensure business continuity with the threat of their workers getting sick is both unrelated to remuneration, and not a question those companies are in a position to answer themselves. That responsibility would fall upon a regulating body.
Ugh I don't know how I mess that up between title and url but it seems to happen each time I submit. @dang can you fix if it's worth it?
"Temporary pause" is an incredibly naive way to describe what's happening. Millions of people (and businesses) will miss their rent/mortgage payments that are due Wednesday. Some not-insignificant portion of those missed rent payments will result in more mortgage payments being missed. Many who've lost their jobs and rack up debt during this won't be able to find a job when the economy is able to be spun back up. It seems obvious that there's going to be terrible cascading effects.
It's not just funding. It's also focus. In recent years the CDC was tasked with fighting obesity and "gun violence" "epidemics" as well. Neither of those things is an epidemic. They are not contagious even. Why the fuck does the CDC waste their resources on this, instead of the real, actual epidemiological problems the eventual emergence of which is not only entirely plausible, but which have happened in practice several times already over the past couple of decades.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/...

https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/index.html
It'll be interesting to see if habits change. It takes 30 days to change a habit. Will people just get used to not eating out. Personally I am enjoying this lack of unnecessarily bullshit spending that is imposed by the quarantine.
python + beautiful soup
The gap between stitches in a shirt is a gaping hole to a virus.
Right now they are scrambling to cushion the blow on the hospitals but by doing so they are putting off the inevitable need for people to get and defeat the virus so we can have herd immunity. Without this old people are still going to be at serious risk once we let everyone out again.

Step 1. Avoid old people and just do normal life, build an immunity.

Step 2. Now enough people are immune we can hang out with old people again.

But we are at Step 0 and are making a big delay for steps 1 and 2 which will still need to happen. There’s a big risk the second wave will be more tragic than the first if people don’t realize it.
It doesn’t help that almost every news outlet in the US, including medical professionals, said masks are useless if you aren’t sick. I followed that advice unfortunately.
My friend is a psychologist and he defines mental health as "the ability to feel/express the full spectrum of emotions".

I think this is accurate.
> They'll have had to been paying rent or mortgage on the property they currently occupy, with only the revenue they're able to make on take outs.

Everyone keeps assuming landlords aren't people. If you own a commercial building with say six storefronts, once the SIP lifts, you have two choices:

Demand immediate back rent from all your tenants and then evict them all, leaving a completely empty building, or work with them so they can remain open and at least give you partial rent for a while until they can pay you back.

Yes, the government will need to step in and declare mortgages were on hold and no back payment is necessary, but that's already in the works.

I think landlords are smart enough not to just evict everyone as soon as they can. They know that no one will come and take that spot.

It's better to have partial rent than none at all.
It seems like the authorities in the US tried to downplay, even discourage, using mask if you're asymptomatic to prevent people from stocking up and depriving medical professionals of them.
"Asia was way ahead of us with their health culture on this one"

Except, you know, on the part about open air wet markets with undomesticated animals.
Are things still open where you are? I've legitimately been WFH for the past two weeks and have avoided going into public except when absolutely essential. And that's in line with everyone I know up here in Canada.

The two runs we've done were to the super market & pharmacy (about a week and a half ago) and to my wife's office building since she needed records of employment to let folks start collecting unemployment. At this point a mask is a good idea - but simply not going out is a better one.
Ask HN: The good that can come out of these times
Hi HN.
Hope you're all well.
I'd really like to hear/read the thoughts of this community about the good (in any field of life) that can come out of the hard times we're in nowadays.
Thank you. Wish you well.
It's an interpretation of audio recorded to film
Huh, it appears that the app in the link I shared above it's the legacy version and this should be the new one (guessing from the age of each app).

Thanks for the info
Is there a breakdown of retail and travel-industry related jobs, versus other categories?
Yes. There's a lot of difference between someone asking for $20 on the street and someone who asks and tells me they'll take it anyway if I say no.

An appeal is proper--a threat of lawlessness is not.

Problems like this are the proper domain of our politicians. They may be imperfect, but I have confidence that this will get solved at that level.
AFAIK, masks are (mostly) not for the virus, they're for the droplets. The droplets are much larger.

[0]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3785820/

[1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18158720
You're may be right. But if you wear a mask how does the facial recognition reliably identify you?

I'm only partially joking. For example, McDonald's doesn't allow Halloween masks inside the store to discourage robbery.
And millions of people will go back to work in June. And millions of people and businesses will receive government support in the interim.
I'm between jobs and I'm likely pretty fucked, but I take no issue with people using humor to get through this stressful period and wish them the best.

If you want to get mad, get mad at incompetent politicians who aren't doing enough to ensure a speedy recovery.
Neither of these are scientific conclusions — they’re philosophical positions built around an interpretation.

The sloppy way people present the Copenhagen interpretation as a scientific conclusion is likely what’s stalling science: it’s fundamentally built on an extraneous assumption, but everyone pretends their assumed interpretation is a conclusion.

We’re not gonna get progress until people assuming an extraneous assumption drop it and redo the last couple generations of physics to not depend on it.
It's possible the peak could be higher but much less sustained.
Dear Internet Archive:

Not only do I support the measure you have taken and feel that it falls within the bounds of pro-social fair use, but I applaud the measures you have taken that are so important in this extreme time.

Furthermore, if any court finds that your action was not appropriate, I will urge my lawmakers to craft a specific exception to copyright law to support the internet archive lending at all times, not just during a national emergency.